Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 3:55 p.m. November 24, 2019

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps and continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations. We have now added a Ski Report.

Please share this article – Go to the very top of the page, right-hand side for social media buttons. Also, feel free to send this email to anyone you feel will benefit from it

Directory

CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

…Heavy snow possible for parts of the Central Rockies/Central Plains and snow for the Cascades…

…An unusually deep storm to impact the Northwest and California with high wind, snow, and rain by Tuesday evening…

…Storm over the Northeast wind down…

…There is a elevated risk of fire weather over parts of Northern/Central California…

A storm just off the New England Coast will move northeastward into Eastern Canada by Monday.  The system will produce higher elevation snow and rain over parts of the Northeast that will slowly taper off by Monday afternoon.  Additionally, northwesterly wind of 15 to 20 mph and low humidity levels with fuels still remaining dry across parts of Northern/Central California an area of elevated risk of fire weather is forecast over the area on the remainder of Sunday into Monday. 

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains southwestward to Northern California will move eastward to the Great Lakes and Southward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday.  The system will produce light rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Northwest into the Northern Plains.  More snow than rain will develop over the U. S./Canadian Border from parts of the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes overnight Sunday that will move into parts of the Great Lakes and wind down by Tuesday morning.  Upper-level energy over the Eastern Pacific will move southeastward to the Great Basin/Southwest by Monday evening.  The energy will aid in producing snow over the Cascades into the Northern

Rockies/Great Basin, on Monday, that will expand into the Central/Southern Rockies and parts of the Southwest overnight Monday.  The energy will aid in developing a wave of low pressure over the Central/Southern Rockies overnight Monday that will lift northward from the Southern High Plains into parts of the Central Plains by Tuesday evening.  In addition, snow will start to move out of the Central High Plains overnight Monday into the Central Plains and into parts of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening.  Also on Tuesday, rain and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Western Ohio Valley/Southern Plains.

Meanwhile, a developing storm over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over parts of California/Pacific Northwest on Tuesday evening.  The storm will bring strong wind and rain with higher elevation snow over parts of Northern California and the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday evening.   

Click here for the latest complete NWS/WPC Short Range Discussion. (Sometimes we provide part of or even the full discussion above and you can tell because it goes beyond the bullet points. We do that when we think the bullet points do not provide enough information. But the link just provided always takes you to the full discussion with updates twice a day and sometimes we are a bit late updating the bullet points so that link will get you there. You can tell if we are late by the time of the stamped update. This time of the year, NOAA does the updates at around 3 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST. We try to do the updates in our article as close to that as possible but it is not always possible.)

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.

Return to Directory

Notable Recent Events

Looking at the Jet Stream

Return to Directory

Day 3 – 7 Hazards

(This is updated only during the week) Note the first list is weather highlights, this list is hazards. Not sure there is that much of a difference but they come from two different parts of NOAA. The Day 3 – 7 Hazards List does not update on weekends.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Wed-Fri, Nov 27-Nov 29.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Tue-Wed, Nov 26-Nov 27.

– Heavy rain across portions of California and the Southwest, Wed-Fri, Nov 27-Nov 29.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Tue-Fri, Nov 26-Nov 29.

– Heavy snow across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Wed-Fri, Nov 27-Nov 29.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains.

– Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Great Basin, the NorthernRockies, California, and the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Fri, Nov 28-Nov 29.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Wed-Fri, Nov 27-Nov 29.

– Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Thu, Nov 26-Nov 28.

– Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Thu, Nov 26-Nov 28.

– High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Nov 26-Nov 27.

– High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Nov 26-Nov 27.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays.

For more details see Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps.

Return to Directory

Ski Snow Reports

New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every GEI Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.

We will update the above map weekly but more frequent updates can be obtained here.

Snow Forecasts.

Day 1

Day 2

Additional snow information can be found here and here.

Return to Directory

Tropical Events

This is also the time of the year we pay special attention to Tropical Events

Here is a different look at the overall situation but it is a Google Product, not a NOAA Product, so it is unofficial and may not always be totally accurate. The advantage of this product is you can zoom in to see the land areas that may be impacted:

You can use the + and – to zoom in or out and you can scroll the map. I recommend that you first look at the bottom of the map for where you can click to see the full map meaning a large version of the map and then use the “+” to zoom in to areas along the track where you have an interest.

First looking at the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico

Switching to the Eastern Pacific

And the Central Pacific.

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Week Tropical Forecast

Return to Directory

Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

Return to Directory

Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Return to Directory

Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is of most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

Return to Directory

Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Now we look at the forecast for the Maximum Temperature three days out.

Looking ahead to next week.

Return to Directory

Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

Return to Directory