Live: Severe Weather Events May 20 Through May 26, 2019 - Cold, Wet, And Heat Risks

Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 3:40 p.m. EDT May 23, 2019 to reflect the urgency of the Warnings.

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats. Pay attention to how severe weather may impact where you live or travel. When a location of interest shows up on any of these maps, click the map in order to see the details which may be a very detail map and appropriate text information. These are “Live” maps and continually update. Please pay particular attention to the Mesoscale Events map as these are potentially life-threatening situations.

Focus Points This Week: Southern and Central Plains Severe Weather and Flooding and Southeast Excessive Heat

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First the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

Here is the full Thursday WPC Short Range Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 220 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 Valid 00Z Fri May 24 2019 – 00Z Sun May 26 2019
…More widespread severe weather and flash flooding is expected for portions of the central and southern Plains along with the Midwest…
…Near record heat and dry weather is expected across the Southeast U.S….
…Very cool and unsettled weather continues for the West…
A very active weather pattern is forecast to continue across the central part of the nation through the end of the week and the first part of the weekend. This is in response to a strong upper level trough situated over the Intermountain West and a large upper level ridge anchored over the southeastern U.S. A clash of air masses from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley region will support multiple episodes of severe weather along with the threat for additional flash flooding in the general vicinity of a slow moving frontal boundary where multiple waves of low pressure will be developing along it.
The first of these surface lows will cross the Great Lakes region through this afternoon and advance across New England early Friday. This will allow a cold front to drop southeast and cross the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight through Friday morning, and bringing cooler temperatures for the end of the week and going into the first part of the weekend. In the warm sector of this approaching low center and cold front, severe thunderstorms will be possible from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through this afternoon and evening, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of this region in a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well, but conditions will improve rapidly after the cold front crosses the region.
A second low pressure system will develop across the western High Plains tonight and lift northeastward across the northern Plains and upper Midwest by Friday evening. A corridor of enhanced rainfall along with severe weather is likely from the Texas Panhandle to Wisconsin over the next couple of days. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a Moderate Risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening focused across the Texas panhandle which is embedded within a broader Enhanced Risk area over portions of the southern and central High Plains. Flash flooding will be a significant concern tonight across areas central and southern Kansas where the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a High Risk of excessive rainfall and this is embedded within a broader Moderate Risk areas across the greater central Plains. On Friday and going into Saturday, the threat for severe weather and flash flooding will shift farther northeast toward the upper Midwest as the aforementioned low center lifts off to the northeast.
In terms of temperatures, readings will continue to be well below average for the Rockies and extending westward across the Great Basin and into California given the presence of an upper level trough, cloud cover and plenty of shower activity. In some cases, temperatures will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal, and it will be cold enough across the higher terrain for some additional accumulating snowfall. Meanwhile, across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Deep South and the Southeast, very dry conditions and near record high temperatures will be possible Friday and well into the Memorial Day weekend as high pressure overhead will yield high temperatures soaring well into the 90s to locally near 100 degrees.

Click here for updates to this WPC Discussion

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

For the Day 2 Outlook click here. For Day 3, click here. For Days 4 – 8 click here. An explanation of the risk codes used can be found here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into late Spring and Early Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Or for the Day 2 Fire Outlook click here. For the Day 3 – 8 Fire Outlook click here.

The orange and red outlined areas are what is of most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend so sometimes we do an update on Monday to reflect major changes in the Day 3 – 7 Forecast.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

Now to our More Detailed Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of itself Atmospheric Rivers are not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

Here we see an AR headed towards the West Coast.

This view shows the AR impacting the Great Lakes Area and the entire East Coast.

We thought we would show Europe also. This view also provides a better view of the East Coast.

The Gulf Coast activity now seems to be directed over the entire Northeast.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3–Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

The current Pacific Trough is forecast to have moved inland by Day 3. The High over the Southeast will result in near record or record temperatures for this time of the year.

As of this evening, we see for Day 7 pretty much what we see for Day 3.

The below shows the progression of the pattern from Day 3 to Day 7. This provides an advanced forecast of where major features will be for Day 3 to Day 7

It seems like a pretty stagnant pattern which can be problematic re flooding.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

The above is an advanced look. Our most recent 25 Day Intermediate-Term Forecast might provide additional information. The URL for that report changes each Monday so you can find it on the Econintersect.com website or consult the Directory which can be accessed here.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Oklahoma and Kansas are the wettest with South Dakota also quite wet.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

The pattern is similar but this represents five days of precipitation rather than three days as shown in the earlier graphic. The pattern extends to the northeast a bit.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Pretty much the same areas but the QPF continues to increase and is increasingly impacting the Northeast and the Province of Quebec in Canada.

Remember the commentary is as of Sunday Night unless updated which is indicated in the lede paragraph. The graphics auto-update so the commentary may not be up-to-date beyond the initial publication on Sunday Night.

We have to start worrying about heat being a hazard.

There is concern relative to the Southeast where even when the relative humidity is relatively low for that part of CONUS, the humidity is higher than the levels usually experienced in the Desert Southwest. Thus the combination of heat and humidity factors in. The forecast calls for near record or record heat in the Southeast so this is of concern

Snow is becoming less of an issue but not this week. We show one forecast map for snow. It auto-updates. To get a variety of additional updated maps, click here. We will stop showing this graphic soon.

Looking ahead to next week.

Usually, nothing shows in this graphic for the following week as it is usually too far out to be forecasting severe weather. But this graphic auto-updates. The Southeast Heat may continue to be forecast as a problem.

Current watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the agencies of the National Weather Service. Hazards should show up in the various maps but the below links will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings in each category which may include some categories not covered in the various maps or difficult to find. So if there is a category of interest, click on the appropriate link below.

Below you will see a number of different maps which are updated in real time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here are events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Convective Outlooks
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook

This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook

The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorm across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook

Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook