May 9, 2019 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Is Drought Shifting East?

Written by Sig Silber

U.S. and World Agriculture: Plus an Expanded Weather Forecast Section

Updated at 6:30 p.m. EDT to reflect the new Week 3 – 4 Forecast and the current flooding risk in the Southern Plains. The drought might be shifting east but the short-term situation is a trough that is moving through the area.  Keeping track of the various timeframes is a challenge. `

This week we provide a lot of information on the condition of reservoirs and explain how the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) streamflow and reservoir level forecasts work. The crop progress reports are again bad to very bad. The West is forecast to be cool and wet in the near term. The East is forecast to be mostly warm and dry so we might see some signs of mild drought in the East over the next couple of weeks. For now, we have a record (since formal reporting started in 2000) absence of drought and little abnormally dry conditions.

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1. Special Reports and Highlights.

Hazardous Weather. For more updates see our Severe Weather Report which can be accessed here.  We probably will not be updating this article again but we do update the Severe Weather Article and it also provides easy access to updates from various NOAA entities.

Overview.

Here are the highlights from Thursday’s Afternoon WPC Short Range Forecast

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019 Valid 00Z Sat May 11 2019 – 00Z Mon May 13 2019

…There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast…

…Heavy rain likely over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast…

…Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees below average for the Central/Southern High Plains…

Click here for updates to this WPC Discussion

Here is the latest from the Houston NWS.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 358 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-111200-

Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Grimes-Houston-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-Wharton-358 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

DAY ONE…This Afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of Southeast Texas through 7 PM Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms should develop again tonight into Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible and could result in flash flooding and additional rises on area rivers and bayous.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Saturday through Thursday

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM Saturday. Another round of storms could affect the area through Saturday morning or afternoon and cause additional flooding.

ENSO Update (I have removed the links to the graphics most of which are in our Monday Intermediate-Term Report).

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

9 May 2019 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance).

During April, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, reflecting the ongoing El Niño. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were near +0.8°C, except for Niño-1+2 index, which was at +0.3°C. While surface indicators were relatively unchanged during the month, the anomalous upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased through April. Subsurface temperature anomalies remained positive close to the surface across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but were increasingly negative at depth Suppressed tropical convection was evident near Indonesia and enhanced convection continued near the Date Line, though weaker compared to the last two months. Low-level wind anomalies were weak over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with easterly anomalies evident over the western Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western Pacific and westerly over most of the eastern Pacific. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with El Niño.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to continue through 2019, with SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region clustering between +0.5°C and +1.0°C. However, model predictions made during the spring tend to be less accurate relative to the rest of the year, so uncertainty remains whether this outcome will occur. In the shorter term, a recent increase in westerly wind anomalies over the west-central Pacific Ocean portends the possible development of another downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which could build up the above-average subsurface temperatures needed for El Niño to persist. In summary, El Niño is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (70% chance) and fall (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 June 2019. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].

Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service College Park, MD 20740

One of the exhibits that was released today was the new probability forecast by IRI-CPC and that is shown below.

Flooding

Here is the current status of flooding.

Last Week	This Week

More information can be found here.

The below shows one aspect of the current flooding risk.

Looking Ahead re Agriculture: Field Work

River and Reservoir Updates.

This might be helpful. Updates can be obtained here.

Now let us look at a list of Western Reservoirs. This information comes from NRCS which is part of USDA and the NRCS water information can be found here.

In the below table, there are nine columns of information. The first column on the left is the current amount of water in the reservoir. The units are thousand acre-feet of water which to many is a term they may not be familiar with. An acre-foot of water is what it takes to have a foot of water over an area the size of an acre and it is just under 326,000 gallons. To the right of the current amount of water in each reservoir, you will find the amount last year at this time, the average, the capacity of the reservoir, the percent full, the percent full last year, the average percent full, the current percent of the thirty-year average (1981 – 2010) reference period, the last year percent of average. One can look at this as including three current-year to last-year comparisons which essentially show the same thing but in terms of different units. The ratio of current-year to last-year will be the same for each of those three pairs of measures since when you do division, the units cancel each other.

I hope the occasional blank lines are not too annoying. This was a technical issue related to getting the data into my article. With some considerable work, I could have edited that out. But I do not think the blanks interfere with reading the report.

But the current assessment above only reflects what is in the reservoirs as of April 30, 2019. It does not reflect the water flows to the reservoirs. So now we will show one NRCS analysis for one river system: the Gunnison River Basin in Colorado. Stream flow in the West is determined by four factors.

1. The current water in the snowpack in our mountains. This resource can be reduced by evaporation and sublimation which is related to temperature and wind.
2. Water already in transit.
3. Possible additional precipitation
4. Losses along the way: evaporation, seepage, and use by riparian vegetation. Again temperature is a major factor in the level of losses.

In the graphic below, it shows a number of different forecast periods. One reason for that is we want to know how much water there will be in the reservoirs in time for the irrigation season. A second reason is that the periods selected are considered possible to forecast. For each forecast period, there is the expected stream flow and two more favorable scenarios and two less favorable scenarios. Because many of these states typically have their dry season prior to the wet season, the range of estimates is often not extreme in that the potential for additional precipitation is usually fairly low so the estimate is based substantially on the about of water that is expected to be related to the existing snowpack. But that may not be the case this year. As an example, in the below graphic the Gunnison River Flow near Grand Junction Colorado. The range of estimates is 1460KAF to 2170KAF both of which are above the 30 Year Average. The forecast periods are not the same for all rivers. In the example, the April to July flow is greater than the May to July flow since the May to July flow does not include the April flow. It takes a while to get used to this type of reporting.

And to look at the situation by state:

We will come back to this later but this graphic shows the favorable situation for reservoir recharge.

2. Summary of Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast (helpful to predict drought and floods etc)

Here is the summary of the forecast for the next approximately twenty-five days. We provide this so that we can make our own assessment of the drought forecast. Here I provide the weather forecasts for different periods of time in which should allow the reader to assess the likelihood of this forecast working out as shown over the next three to four weeks. Since we publish this week on Thursday, we generally update the discussion for the Week 3 – 4 forecast when it is updated on Friday. This is important as the current Day 6 – 14 forecasts and the week-old week 3 – 4 forecast overlap to some extent.

Later we provide additional information relative to the weather forecast analysis but here is the summary.

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

Additional Information on the forecast is provided later.

Here is the discussion released with the Week 3-4 Update.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat May 25 2019-Fri Jun 07 2019

After a month-long hiatus, robust MJO activity re-emerged over the Indian Ocean in late April and quickly propagated to the West Pacific. Constructive interference between this renewed intraseasonal activity and the low frequency ENSO state helped generate an intense westerly wind burst near the Date Line, which may help reinforce ENSO-driven above-average equatorial sea surface temperatures through early Summer due to downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave activity. In the nearer term, the intense Pacific convection is causing an extension of the Pacific Jet, which coupled with an unusually amplified pattern over the CONUS, continues to promote an influx of post-wet season moisture to the Southwest. This tropical teleconnection is anticipated to continue playing a role in the midlatitude pattern during the Week 3-4 forecast period.

There is considerable spread among the dynamical model 500-hPa anomaly patterns. Antecedent to the Week 3-4 period, model guidance favors troughing over the west-central CONUS, with ridging over the Southeast and a persisting negative NAO pattern. The CFS retrogrades the trough westward to the Pacific coast, while the ECMWF brings the trough to the central U.S. The JMA solution favors a highly amplified trough over the Southwest. Based on model trends over the past several days, this outlook favors the ECMWF solution, with reduced probabilities in deference to the high spread among the tools and long term trends in opposition to the ECMWF.

Consistent with the idea that anomalous longwave troughing will be present over the central U.S. during the Week 3-4 period, below-normal temperatures are favored across the Plains and the upper Midwest. Extremely high soil moisture content across the region increases confidence that persistent above-normal temperatures are less likely, and based on perhaps overdone feedback from the wet soils, the ECMWF maintains very high probabilities for below-normal temperatures across a large swath of the central CONUS. While coverage of below is high in the outlook, the high probabilities suggested by the ECMWF were damped substantially due to high uncertainty considering the other available guidance. Enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures extend eastward across the Great Lakes due to high soil moisture, and across New England due to an anticipated persistence of the Greenland blocking pattern (negative NAO), which may continue to promote wedging of cool maritime air. Above-normal temperatures are favored over the Southeast under the anticipated ridge, with probabilities lowered across Florida due to the potential onset of the summer seabreeze convective regime. The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures exists over Alaska, with small low-probability areas favoring above-normal temperatures over the Northwest and Southwest CONUS based on a consolidation of the dynamical and statistical model guidance.

The precipitation outlook is also low confidence, with multiple tools completely out of phase with each other. Following the ECMWF solution that favors a trough over the central U.S. and ridging over the Southeast, there is increased confidence that Gulf moisture will be pulled northward over the Plains. This solution would suggest the persistence of a pattern that has been in place for multiple weeks, making any periods of heavy precipitation potentially hazardous in areas already inundated. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the Southeast under the forecasted ridge, with lower confidence across the Florida peninsula and along the immediate shoreline due to the potential for seabreeze convection. Elsewhere, low confidence necessitates equal chances for below- or above-normal precipitation, which below-normal precipitation is favored across western and northern Alaska.

Anomalous ridging, partly in response to ENSO-driven convection, is favored to remain in place over Hawaii, which would promote generally above-normal temperatures. Dynamical model precipitation guidance is fairly low-amplitude, and favors a slight tilt towards above-normal.

3. Present Drought Conditions

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

Something relatively new and concerns an area that is in drought probably due to the El Nino.

Below is the map for just CONUS and with statistics and below that map I have provided a cut-out of the statistics which I think you can click on to enlarge. When you click on graphics that I have set up to enlarge often with your mouse right click and then click on “view image” and that will work.

Last Week	This Week

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the drought has been upgraded. The green is where the level of drought has been downgraded.

Mixed but North Dakota seems to have improved.

No Change

No Change

Mostly improvement in Texas. Slight improvement in Mississippi.

Some deterioration in Georgia

Improvement in the Four Corners area of New Mexico and some deterioration in Washington State.

I do not think it is useful right now to think in terms of a core drought area so I am not including some of the graphics we have been showing that focused on the West and the Four Corners Area in particular

Some may find this way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and demise. When you read these graphics, remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

Here is the discussion which was issued with the Drought Monitor today.

This Week’s Drought Summary

A large portion of the lower 48 states remains free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, including the entire Northeast and Midwest regions. Moderate drought coverage shifted in Georgia in response to precipitation patterns over the past week. Areas of short-term moderate drought were removed in Texas, where widespread moderate to heavy precipitation fell. Severe drought in northwest New Mexico was reduced in coverage because of improved short-term conditions, though some long-term precipitation deficits remain in the area. Moderate drought was added in western Washington because of worsening short- and long-term precipitation deficits and low streamflow. Widespread improvements to the drought depiction were made in Hawaii. The northern part of the drought area in southeast Alaska improved some, while severe drought expanded slightly to the south of its position last week in southeast Alaska. No changes were made this week in Puerto Rico.

Northeast

The Northeast remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, as light to moderate precipitation overspread much of the region.

Midwest

The Midwest also remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, with Illinois and Missouri receiving widespread moderate to heavy rainfall amounts. Precipitation in the short term in western Iowa has been rather sparse, though this has not led to the development of abnormal dryness.

Southeast

This week, moderate drought shifted in coverage in parts of south-central and southwest Georgia. The changes were made where precipitation drought indicators shifted in response to precipitation amounts over the last week. Abnormal dryness was removed along the Florida east coast where precipitation alleviated short-term drought conditions, though some deficits remain in the long term.

South

Widespread improvements were made in Texas this week in areas that received moderate to heavy precipitation, such that no areas of moderate drought remain. With the heavy precipitation, the Brazos River is running high in north-central Texas, and minor to moderate flooding is a concern in parts of Texas. A small area of abnormal dryness expanded from northeast New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, where soil moisture has lessened in response to lower short-term precipitation and frequent hot and windy conditions.

High Plains

A small area of abnormal dryness developed in southwest Nebraska, far northwest Kansas, and a small part of northeast Colorado because of short-term precipitation deficits and low streamflow in the area. Abnormal dryness also has developed as a result of short-term precipitation deficits in the Laramie Range in Wyoming. In North Dakota, abnormal dryness was extended slightly eastward in response to short-term precipitation deficits. Meanwhile, abnormal dryness in western North Dakota was removed in areas where long-term drought conditions had improved. Very wet conditions have continued in Kansas, and flooding is taking place in south-central Kansas.

West

Long-range drought conditions continued to improve in northwest New Mexico where vegetation is beginning to recover. Thus, severe drought coverage was reduced here, and it remains the only area of severe drought in the lower 48 states. Moderate drought developed in western Washington, and abnormal dryness also expanded here, in response to worsening short- and long-term precipitation deficits, low streamflow, and low soil moisture in some areas. Abnormal dryness developed in the Wind River Range in Wyoming and in the Jackson area in Wyoming. Abnormal dryness was removed in northeast Montana, where long-term precipitation deficits had improved.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Widespread improvements to the drought depiction were made in Hawaii in areas where recent rainfall improved conditions. However, severe drought continues on the leeward areas of Kauai, Maui, and the Big Island. The northern part of the drought area in southeast Alaska improved some, while severe drought expanded slightly to the south of its position last week in southeast Alaska. Drought conditions in the short term have lessened, so the area is now depicted as long-term drought. Impacts in Petersburg and Juneau have lessened, while Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlekatla are still primarily on diesel power because of low hydropower output. No changes were made this week in Puerto Rico.

Pacific Islands

The weather pattern during this USDM week (5/1/19-5/7/19) consisted of (1) a surface trough across western to central Micronesia with a couple circulations/weak tropical disturbances embedded within it, one in the western end near Yap and Koror and the other in the eastern end between Chuuk and Kosrae; (2) converging trade winds over Kosrae State to the southern Marshall Islands; (3) dry trade winds across northern Micronesia; and, south of the equator, (4) a surface trough which oscillated across the Samoan Islands, producing a wet week for American Samoa.

Dry conditions persisted across the Mariana Islands during the USAPI USDM drought week of 7 May 2019, with all three stations (Guam, Saipan, and Rota) receiving less than half their weekly minimum of 1 inch of precipitation to meet most water needs. The station with the least precipitation total was Guam, which only had 0.09 inches for the week, while Saipan and Rota had 0.43 and 0.16 inches, respectively. According to the Drought Information Statement issued on 2 May 2019 by the NWS Tiyan Guam, an increase in the risk of grass fires in Guam as well as the reduction of Saipan’s fresh water resources could be a problem in the next couple of weeks if dry conditions prevail. There was no change to the drought category for the stations in the Marianas, with extreme drought (D3-S) at Guam and Rota and exceptional drought (D4-S) at Saipan.

Palau was also dry this week, receiving only 0.94 inches of rain. This value is 1.06 inches less than their weekly minimum of 2 inches to meet most water needs. Palau has not met its monthly minimum of 8-inches since the start of the year. For this reason, severe drought (D2-S) continues across Palau.

Several stations across FSM had a wet week, with Kosrae having the highest precipitation total at 14.45 inches, exceeding the monthly minimum of 8 inches by 6.45 inches in just one week. Other notable precipitation totals were reported in Kapingamarangi (8.79 inches) and Pingelap (7.82 inches), which had more than the monthly minimum of 8 inches. Due to the very wet conditions experienced this week, no drought or dryness (D-Nothing) remained in all three stations. Yap and Woleai also had wet conditions during the week at 2.56 and 2.27 inches, respectively, exceeding their weekly minimum of 2 inches. Even though this was a wet week, the last several months have been extremely dry for both stations. Yap in particular has experienced extremely dry conditions since February 2019, with monthly precipitation totals between 1.57 inches to 2.77 inches, which is much less than the ideal 8 inches of precipitation. Moderate drought (D1-S) remained in Woleai while Yap remained in extreme drought (D3-S). Chuuk, Pohnpei, Lukunoch, and Nukuoro had dry conditions during the week, with Chuuk receiving the least precipitation total at 0.01 inch. Since last two months Chuuk had less than their minimum of 8 inches and this week almost no rain at all, the drought classification was downgraded from no drought (D-Nothing) to abnormally dry (D0-S). Nukuoro had a total of 1.34 inches of rain this week, which is less than their 2-inches weekly minimum, however, no drought (D-Nothing) remained since precipitation totals for the past several months have surpassed the 8-inches mark by, in some instances, nearly twice as much. Similarly, Lukunor and Pohnpei’s monthly precipitation totals were above the 8-inches mark the last two months and thus drought classification remained at no drought (D-Nothing) even though this week the precipitation total were only 0.48 inches (2 days missing data) and 0.42 inches, respectively, much less than their 2-inches weekly minimum. Fananu and Ulithi had missing data and thus no analysis was performed for these stations.

Most of the Marshall Islands had dry conditions for the week; however, Majuro, Jaluit, and Mili were the only stations that had wet conditions, reporting a total of 3.96, 2.45 and 2.34 inches of rain, respectively, which is more than their 2 inches weekly minimum to meet most water needs. This was Jaluit and Mili’s first wet week since early April, while this was Majuro’s first wet week since the end of March. However, since Jaluit and Mili had really dry April and May, abnormal dryness (D0-S) persists this week. Beneficial rain fell over Majuro this week, helping improve reservoir levels from 65.5% at the end of April to 75.9% by 7 May 2019. According to the Drought Information Statement issued on 2 May 2019 by the NWS Tiyan Guam, the dry conditions led the development of fires across Majuro. Due to the dry conditions since January 2019, the impacts, and the fact that reservoir levels are still below the critical 80% threshold, Majuro’s extreme drought (D3-S) classification did not change this week. For the remaining five Marshall Island stations, three (Kwajalein, Utirik, and Wotje) had little to no rain. Utirik and Wotje had no rain this week, while Kwajalein reported receiving 0.64 inch of rain – much less than their 2.0 inches weekly minimum. Due to persistence of extreme dry conditions (since autumn 2018), Wotje’s drought category was changed to exceptional drought with short and long-term impacts (D4-SL). Kwajalein and Utirik’s drought classifications remained the same this week as extreme drought (D3-S) and exceptional drought (D4-SL), respectively. Allinglapalap’s precipitation total of 1.15 was below the weekly minimum and its drought classification remained at moderate drought (D1-S).

Pago Pago reported receiving over double its weekly minimum at 5.16 inches during this USAPI USDM drought week. Due to the very wet conditions, no drought or dryness (D-Nothing) classification was unchanged for Pago Pago.

Looking Ahead

Widespread moderate to heavy rain is forecast to continue over the next several days over parts of the south-central United States. The highest rainfall amounts are forecast to occur in southeast Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Precipitation is also forecast in parts of New Mexico that are still experiencing drought. Moderate precipitation amounts are predicted to fall across much of the Northeast and the Upper Midwest. Dry weather is forecast in the Pacific Northwest. Primarily warm weather is forecast in the Northwest, while much of the Plains is expected to be cooler than normal, with moderating temperatures expected early next week.

Western Water Situation

Here is part of the explanation for the overall situation in the West. Looking at the information from the network of SNOTEL sites. These are mainly in remote locations often at high elevations. they report by telecommunications hence their name.

First the last seven days.

Then we look at the Water Year.

Then we look at how much snow there is to melt when it is warmer.

Wildfires are becoming more of a problem as we move towards summer.

4. Recent Weather

There is much less snow this week..

Here is the SWE (water content of the snow) version.

Last Seven Days

For reference purposes here is the precipitation information for the prior seven days. It is not the same as what is shown in the USDA Crop Report since the crop week covers the Sunday to Saturday period which corresponds to the crop reports. To avoid confusion, I have not included in this article the weather graphics that correspond to the crop week. But it is important to understand that the crop reports cut off on a Saturday, are reported on the following Tuesday, and the Drought Monitor is issued on Thursday so here are different lags for different sets of information presented.

Below is the current seven-day period and updates in this article automatically every day. It is a better tool for making forecasts.

Current Month to Date.

And then temperature

You can generate a wide variety of different graphics here.

5. Current Forecast for Precipitation and Drought.

Here is the Seasonal Forecast through July 31 which was issued on April 18, 2019 with the full Seasonal Outlook.

Here is the May one-month drought forecast which was issued on April 30, 2019.

These two forecasts are issued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here. The three-month Seasonal Drought Outlook will be updated on May 16, 2019.

Additional Information Relative to the Intermediate-Term Forecast

We provided the summary approximately 25 Day Forecast earlier. Here is additional information that relates to this forecast.

First, the weather hazards forecast.

Additional information can be obtained here. We also now publish a Live Severe Weather article. The link to our Severe Weather Events article changes every Sunday night and the current version can always be found in the Directory which can be accessed here.

And we do not want to ignore floods which we also discussed in Section I.

Let’s see if this animation works.

Here are additional useful graphics from my weekly report which update automatically. The forecast maps were shown in the Introduction.

First the Day 3 Mid-Atmosphere pattern.

The below is of interest.

6. Soil Conditions and Crop Reports

We will now start reporting on evaporation

Topsoil	Subsoil

Soil Conditions

Here is another way to look at it based on model results.

7. International

8. Background Information

The sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln