Live: Severe Weather Events 28 January Through 4 February 2019

Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 6:30PM EST January 28, 2019 to reflect the addition of another severe weather risk area namely the new North Central Cold Air Intrusion

In this article we provide continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather Related Threats. One important group of threats are Mesoscale Events. A Mesoscale Event is smaller than a large scale or Synoptic Event like a major storm but larger than a micro-climate. Although they sometimes are forecast days in advance, they often spring up fairly quickly which is why we are publishing this report. We are also paying special attention to snow both as a threat but also of interest to those who travel based on snow conditions. And we also pay attention to travel conditions.

Focus Points this Week: The cold conditions for the Northeast and increasing North Central CONUS might be of most concern. The West Coast is coming into play again. The hazard map is covered with extreme weather.

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The links at the end of the article will take you to the current threats by category. The maps identify the most significant current threats (click on the area shown on the map to get details) and the links at the end of our report provide the latest information on all outstanding threats in each category. This article updates automatically whenever NOAA issued new information. So for those who have the link to this article in their smart phone, they will be able to get a very thorough picture of severe weather in CONUS, the Continental U.S. not including Alaska.

You will see a number of different maps which are updated in real time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings etc that have since expired.

Our focus here are events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article.. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Overview: The next two maps provide Information but are not set up to provide more detail (since it is a forecast). It generally updates daily but not on the weekend. So I may update the focus points on Monday and again later in the week as appropriate. Many of the maps later in this report can be clicked on to get detail on specific events that are happening RIGHT NOW! The links at the end of the article will take you to all outstanding watches and warnings.

And Now the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge.you can see where the snow will be. We see snow in a variety of different locations.

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This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

We now have a special snow report followed by more NOAA severe weather alert maps.
You need to click on the graphic above twice. Once to get to the NOAA site and another time to pick the region of interest. Below is the snow levels at the time we went to press. That does not update but you can get the current levels (Nationaly and by Region) by clicking the graphic above twice. Below, the static map of current levels at the time we went to press are forecast maps that update related to new snow.
Interesting how the snow appears to be concentrated at a particular latitude…..not further north. We expect the levels further east to be higher soon and we may update the above graphic as it does not auto-update. The below graphic does auto-update.
Above Day I forecast for 4 inches or more snow. Below Day 3 composite forecast for having 4, 8, or 12 inches of new snow during the next 72 hours (possibly good for skiers) and a forecast for where there may be 1/4 inch of ice (travel risk).
Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks (We have plans to add larger maps but you should be able to see the area to click on with the current small maps)
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorm across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are: 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook