January 17, 2019 Weather Impacts On Economic Activity – Drought To Persist

Written by Sig Silber

U.S. and World Agriculture and More: Plus an Expanded Weather Forecast Section.

Updated at 2PM EST January 18, 2019 to reflect the newly issued Week 3 – 4 Forecast which confirms that the Western drought will persist for four weeks with the potential to then start to again ease.

The 6 – 14 Day forecast (which NOAA assigns a level of confidence of 5 out of 5) shows a drying out from west to east. Obviously that will not be helpful to water conditions in the West. For the next two weeks, the East will be wet. It appears that after the current and soon to arrive trailing storm enter CONUS, there is a huge High Pressure area forming which will block storms from entering the West Coast. This in the past has been called the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR). It may only be a two to three week break in the inflow of Pacific storms. But starting soon, the forecast calls for a significant decrease in precipitation for the West and spreading to the East. We may know a bit more when the Week 3 – 4 Forecast is updated on Friday and we will update our commentary at that time.

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New Drought Forecast Issued Today

1. Introduction.

We are reorganizing the presentation, plan to expand it, and have eliminated for the time being those information graphics that are not being updated due to the Partial Government Shutdown.

Current Week

For reference purposes here is the precipitation information for the prior seven days. It is not the same as what is shown in the USDA Crop Report when it is published (not during the Partial Government Shutdown) which covers the Sunday to Saturday period which corresponds to the crop reports. The below is the current seven-day period and updates in this article automatically every day.

And here is the snow situation.

Now the Temperature Forecast .

Days 1 – 5. Temperature above, precipitation below	Temperature Above, Precipitation Below. Two Overlapping Periods. Days 6 – 10 are considered Week – 1 and Days 8 – 14 are considered Week -2. The overlap reflects the difficulty of pinning down the timing a week in advance.		↑ ← The Week 3 – 4 forecast was updated on Friday January 18, 2019. Our comments on the impact of the change are now included later in this article.

Now we take a look at the current drought situation.

he U.S. Drought Monitor (full report can be accessed here)

This report is now organized as follows:

1. Introduction
2. Present Drought Conditions
3. Last Week’s Weather
4. Information from our Weekly Weather Column (the forecast maps auto-update) and combined with brief commentary from me provides a forecast which I attempt to interpret re the likely change in drought conditions
5. U.S. Crop Information
6. International Crop Information and related weather
7. Prior month’s weather and month-to-date weather excluding the prior week when I have that information. Drought is based on cumulative deficits.
8. A science theme if we have one.
9. Economic Impacts (it will time to get that part of the report going.
10. Reference Information. (This includes a lot of information on reservoirs and river flows)

2. Present Drought Conditions

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a comprehensive way of understanding the drought situation for the U.S. It is issued every Thursday and reflects the conditions as of the prior Tuesday. Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Thus, more factors than recent precipitation are considered and more information on how it is done is found at the end of this report.

Below is the same map but just CONUS and with statistics and below that map I have provided a cut-out of the statistics which I think you can click on to enlarge.

The graphic below shows the one-week change in drought intensity. Yellow is bad. Green is good.

We are showing the change maps for the four states that changed the most.

This pair of maps might make it easier to get a general idea of what is happening in the worst part of the drought area.

Last Week	This Week

Here is one approach to thinking about this area.

This map which covers the West may be useful also.

Here is a larger view of the statistics table.

In the list of references there are links to a number of sources for that information including importantly the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) which can be accessed here (when the Federal Government is not shut down). It makes it easier to find the regional and state reports. I am on the mailing list for some of them and found the regional report for the West via a search engine.

Here is part of the explanation for the overall situation in the West. Looking at the information from the network of SNOTEL sites. These are mainly in remote locations often at high elevations. they report by telecommunications hence their name.

Now we look at the season total. The water season begins on October 1.

Then we look at how much snow there is to melt when it is warmer.

Now we show the week to week change information by region. The yellow is where the drought has been upgraded. The green is where the level of drought has been downgraded.

Better in Colorado, deterioration in Wyoming

No Change

No Change

Almost no Change

A small area of deterioration in Southwest Florida.

Improvement in Southwest California, slight improvement in eastern Colorado, Deterioration in parts of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana.

Some may find this way of looking at things useful and I hope these graphics are not too small to read. I did not make them so you could click on them individually but you can click on the whole graphic and it may enlarge. But I think you get the picture. It has been a rapid onset and hopefully it’s demise will also be fairly rapid. When you read these graphics remember that the older graphics are not the drought conditions that existed then but the change from then until now.

Some might find this animation of twelve weeks of change useful;

Here is the discussion which was issued with the Drought Monitor today.

This Week’s Drought Summary

A mixture of rain and snow accompanied a low pressure system from the Great Lakes to New England during early January. An upper-level low and its associated surface low tracked across the central and eastern U.S. from January 11 to 13. More than 4 inches of snow blanketed areas from Kansas east to the middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic. Snowfall reports of up to 20 inches were reported from northern Missouri, while 8 to 13 inches of snow occurred in the Washington, D.C. metro area. Periods of onshore flow continued to affect the West Coast although precipitation generally averaged below normal across the Pacific Northwest during the past week. A vigorous upper-level low approached southern California on January 14, bringing heavy snow (6 to 12 inches) to elevations above 5,000 feet and locally heavy rain (more than 1 inch) from the Los Angeles area south to San Diego.

Northeast

Light to moderate precipitation fell across the Northeast this past week with weekly amounts averaging near to slightly above normal across northern New England. The heaviest amounts (more than 1 inch, liquid equivalent) were observed outside of the D0 areas in northern Vermont and northwest Maine. Although precipitation during the past 30 days and a lack of impacts would support removal of these lingering D0 areas, they were maintained due to poor 60 to 90-day SPI values.

Southeast

Little to no rainfall has occurred across southern Florida since the beginning of January while temperatures have averaged 3 to 6 degrees F above normal. 28-day USGS measurements on the Loxahatchee River near Jupiter, Florida are reporting a flow at only the 12th percentile. A severe drought area was added from near Melbourne south to Port St Lucie, Florida where precipitation deficits are in excess of 12 inches during the past 180 days. This newly introduced D2 area is also supported by negative SPI values at varying time ranges. The abnormal dryness (D0) area was expanded to include western Collier County given the increasing 90-day precipitation deficits. As of January 15, water levels in Lake Okeechobee were more than 2 feet below normal. Although it is a dry time of year, southern Florida will be closely monitored in subsequent weeks for further degradation. In contrast to southern Florida, the remainder of the Southeast Region remains excessively wet with 90-day precipitation surpluses of 4 to 12 inches and soil moisture ranking above the 90th percentile.

South

Widespread precipitation (more than 0.5 inch, locally more) was observed across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and eastern Texas. This precipitation maintained high soil moisture and streamflows throughout much of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. A slight reduction in the D0 and D1 areas was made to Cameron County in extreme southern Texas as more than 0.5 inch of rainfall occurred in the eastern part of that county. Persistent, dry weather along with periods of enhanced winds resulted in a slight expansion of abnormal dryness across the Texas Panhandle.

Midwest

Widespread precipitation (mostly moderate to heavy snow) occurred this past week from Missouri east to the Ohio Valley. Precipitation amounts exceeded 1 inch across southwest Missouri where precipitation surpluses of 2 to 4 inches, or more, were observed. Since precipitation has averaged close to average during the past 90 days, any lingering abnormal dryness was removed. A small area of abnormal dryness (D0) exists across northwestern Minnesota where the ground is frozen and snow-covered.

High Plains

A lack of snowfall this winter resulted in an increase in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) across parts of Wyoming. Basin snowpack is running below average in the Wind River Range and SPI values in western Wyoming are below -1 on timescales from 30-days to 6-months. Heavy precipitation (over 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) for this time of year prompted a 1-category improvement to drought conditions over south-central to southeast Colorado, including the counties of Pueblo, Otero, and Bent. This past week’s precipitation is more than their monthly average for January. Crop reports from this region indicate that winter wheat was successfully planted. Although no additional improvements were made to southwest Colorado this week, the Sangre de Cristos and San Luis Valley will be reassessed next week.

Moderate to heavy snow (more than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) blanketed much of Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Snow also occurred across the Colorado Rockies and along the Front Range, but precipitation was generally lighter east across the high Plains. Despite mostly dry weather across the Dakotas this past week, no changes were made to the existing D0 and D1 areas since it is a relatively dry time of year and soils are frozen.

West

Locally heavy precipitation (more than 2 inches) fell across southern California for the second consecutive week. Precipitation amounts have ranged from 2 to 5 inches, liquid equivalent, during the past two weeks from Lompoc south to the Los Angeles area. 1 to 2 inches of precipitation has generally been observed from Los Angeles south to San Diego during the past two weeks. The recent and ongoing heavy precipitation has triggered mud slides along burn-scarred hillsides. Based on near to above average precipitation during the 2018-19 water year to date, a continued increase in water storage on Lake Cachuma, and 12 to 24-month SPIs, the D3 area was upgraded to D2. Recent heavy precipitation and 12 to 24-month SPIs also support an upgrade from D2 to D1 across southern California. Additional improvement may be needed across southern California in next week’s USDM with heavy precipitation occurring after 7am EST on Tuesday.

Drought coverage and intensity remained steady this week across the Pacific Northwest. However, precipitation deficits of 5 to 10 inches exist for the water year to date (October 1, 2018 to January 15, 2019) across western Oregon and southwest Washington. Also, basin average snow water content is running below 60 percent of normal across the southern Cascades. Due to these factors, the Pacific Northwest will be closely monitored during the remainder of the 2018-19 water year.

Abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded across northwest Montana, Idaho, and western Wyoming where ACIS indicates that precipitation has averaged less than 50 percent of normal during the past 30 to 90 days. Soil moisture ranking percentiles are in the lowest 30th percentile across northwest Montana. Low snow levels this winter along with favorable ground water levels precluded a further expansion of D0 across the Snake River Plain. Although snow water content is running between 50 to 75 percent of normal across western Idaho, it is too early in the 2018-19 winter to expand coverage of moderate drought (D1). Central and eastern Montana remains snow-free as temperatures have averaged near 10 degrees F above normal during the past 30days. If a lack of snow cover persists, then abnormal dryness may be needed in later releases.

Beneficial rain and high-elevation snow continues to prompt minor improvements to the intensity of drought across New Mexico. Based on the latest indicators, moderate drought (D1) was reduced in Grant and Hidalgo counties in southwest New Mexico, while a slight decrease in severe drought (D2) was made to the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains of northern New Mexico. Heavy precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) shifted east to Arizona after 7am EST on Tuesday. This heavy precipitation may result in minor improvement in next week’s USDM, but 6- to 1- month percent of normal precipitation remains well below normal.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

Precipitation averaged near to slightly below normal across the Alaska Panhandle during the second week of January. Since 6-month precipitation deficits remain in excess of 12 or 15 inches across the ongoing long-term drought areas of the southeast Alaska Panhandle, no improvements were made this past week.

Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies indicate suppressed rainfall over Hawaii during the first ten days of January which is typical during an emerging El Nino. A large expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) was designated for parts of Hawaii during the previous week. A lack of rainfall along with strong winds during late December has resulted in poor pasture conditions across the lower elevations of the South Kohala District on the Big Island. Based on this impact report, moderate drought was degraded to severe drought.

Widespread showers occurred across Puerto Rico this past week with local amounts exceeding 2 inches in the northwest. This recent rainfall has improved 28-day streamflows. Due to the recent rainfall, a reduction of the D0 and D1 areas was necessary and modifications were based on the 60-day precipitation deficits.

Looking Ahead

During the next 5 days (January 17-21, 2019), a low pressure system is forecast to develop across the southern Great Plains and then track northeast to the Ohio Valley. This low pressure system is expected to become a strong coastal low near southern New England. A swath of moderate to heavy snow and freezing rain is likely to accompany the winter storm from the middle Mississippi Valley northeast to the northern mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Although mostly dry weather is forecast across ongoing drought areas of southern Texas, light rainfall is anticipated across southern Florida during the next five days. Widespread rain and high-elevation snow are forecast throughout the western U.S. through early next week with heavy snow likely across the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and Rockies. In the wake of the central and eastern U.S. winter storm this weekend, arctic high pressure is forecast to shift south from Canada and bring the coldest temperatures so far this winter to the northern Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Periods of rainfall are expected across the western Hawaiian Islands during the next five days.

The CPC 6-10 day extended range outlook (January 22-26, 2019) indicates enhanced odds for below normal temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of the continental U.S .along with the central Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. Above-normal precipitation is favored from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast and also across the northern and central Great Plains. High odds for below-normal precipitation are forecast across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California. Above normal precipitation is favored throughout Alaska, while above normal temperatures are most likely across southern mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle.

Soil Conditions as of January 16, 2019

Wildfires are still possible. But the risk is rapidly declining. We have nothing to report this week. .

And we do not want to ignore floods. The updated map can be obtained here.

3. Last Week’s Weather

The maps in this section which are synchronized with the crop report have not updated since the Partial Federal Shutdown. But maps in Section 6 which are related to the date you look at this report are updating.

For the convenience of the reader I have added copies of the two key maps to this section and they follow.

Current Week

For reference purposes here is the precipitation information for the prior seven days. It is not the same as what is shown in the USDA Crop Report when it is published since the crop week covers the Sunday to Saturday period which corresponds to the crop reports. The below is the current seven-day period and updates in this article automatically every day.

And here is the snow situation.

This

In Section 8 we discuss the three types of drought: meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological. We could add another category called “environmental”. The below graphic shows how much is growing on the surface.

4. Current Forecast for Precipitation and Drought.

First we show the current month and then the Seasonal Forecast through February which was issued on November,15 with the full Seasonal Outlook. These two forecasts are sued by the same agency but to obtain them you need to access two different links here and here. We either show the latest or both in this report. Sometimes we show them in more than one place in this report for the convenience of the reader.

And here is the longer seasonal drought forecast which was issued on January 17, 2019. It will update on February 21, 2019. It will be discussed in more detail in our Two-Part Report on the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook.

And now the current precipitation forecasts so that we can make our own assessment of the drought forecast. Here I provide the weather forecasts for different periods of time in which should allow the reader to assess the likelihood of this forecast working out as shown over the next three to four weeks. Since we publish this week on Thursday, we update the discussion for the Week 3 – 4 forecast when it is updated on Friday. This is important as the current Day 6 – 14 forecasts and the week-old week 3 – 4 forecast overlap to some extent.

First weather hazards

Additional information can be obtained here. We also now publish a Live Severe Weather article which can be accessed here. The link to our Severe Weather Events article changes every Sunday night and the current version can always be found in the directory which can be accessed here.

Now the Temperature Forecast .

This shows magnitude rather than probability of being higher or lower than Normal and shows the middle day of the five day period.	Looks like the Great Plains States will tend to be cool to cold* in Week – 1 (Days 6 – 10). The pattern persists into Week – 2 and is amplified.. * warmer than climatology		↑ ← The Week 3 – 4 forecast was updated on Friday January 18, 2018.

The five day QPF is shown above. The units are different than the other maps i.e. in units of precipitation (inches) not probabilities of exceeding or being less than climatology.	After Day 5, it is generally wet in the Northern Tier and the East Coast But in Week – 1 and in Week -2 we are seeing a transition to a drier period as shown in the Week 3 – 4 forecast. So it looks like a four-week period of dryness before the impacts of a possible El Nino begin to show up.		↑ ← The Week 3 – 4 forecast was updated on Friday January 18, 2018.

 discussion released with the Week 3 – 4 Update is complicated but I thought it might be of interest to some so here it is.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 02 2019-Fri Feb 15 2019

MJO-related convection is predicted to emerge over the Maritime Continent in the next couple days and progress eastward into the Western Pacific in the next two weeks by dynamical model forecasts. MJO-related convection could potentially re-emerge and progress into the Western Pacific in weeks 3 and 4, according to dynamical model forecasts, however the state of the MJO during the Week 3-4 period is very uncertain. While ENSO-neutral conditions persist over the equatorial Pacific and the latest weekly Nino 3.4 SST anomaly is at positive 0.4 degrees Celsius, El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the spring season, according to the official ENSO outlook and various statistical and dynamical models. Therefore, a statistical tool based on multivariate regression of temperature and precipitation impacts on MJO and ENSO indices has only a small impact on the current Week 3-4 Outlook. The current Week 3-4 Outlook is based primarily on calibrated probability forecasts of the CFS, ECMWF and JMA ensemble prediction systems, as well as probabilistic guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental and operational ensemble prediction systems.

While above normal temperatures are likely across the West in the Week 3-4 outlook, under a predicted ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies, probabilities for above normal temperatures over the eastern Rocky Mountains are reduced in the Week 3-4 Outlook relative to last week’s outlook, with potential variability during the period represented by variations in the dynamical model forecasts. While most models indicate greater probabilities for mean above normal temperatures across the western CONUS over the Week 3-4 period, the ECMWF indicates increased probabilities for below normal temperatures during week 3 in parts of the Northern Rockies into Montana, Wyoming and Colorado, and the SubX MME indicates weaker probabilities for mean above normal temperatures, during the Week 3-4 period, over parts of the Central and Southern Rockies, where individual models, including the operational Canadian ensemble, indicate increased probabilities for below normal during the period. The potential for intrusions of cold air into the western CONUS during the Week 3-4 period reduces the probabilities for mean above normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 Outlook. With a predicted trough and mean northerly flow over much of the east, below normal temperatures are most likely across much of the eastern CONUS from the Southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard, with the greatest probabilities over the Northeast. Above normal temperatures are likely for much of Alaska, under anomalous southerly flow in a consensus of operational models and the SubX MME. With sea surface temperatures currently below normal in the vicinity of the northwest coast of Alaska and North Slope, equal chances of below and above normal temperatures is indicated.

With a mean ridge over western North America in dynamical model forecasts and northerly flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS west of a predicted trough axis, below normal precipitation is most likely over a broad area of the CONUS from Southern California, across the Southwest and the Central and Southern Plains, into most of the East. A potential for Atlantic coastal storms impacting the Northeast leads to equal chances of above and below normal precipitation over parts of the Atlantic coast of the Northeast. Above normal precipitation is more likely over the Florida Peninsula, where a mean front is most likely to be located. Above normal precipitation is likely for northern areas of eastern Montana and western North Dakota, where storm systems may move southward east of a predicted ridge. The CFS and some models of the SubX bring a predicted trough over the North Pacific close to the west coast resulting in greater probabilities for above normal precipitation over Northern California and the Pacific Northwest, while the ECMWF, Canadian and JMA ensembles indicate below normal precipitation is more likely for the region. Due to uncertainty in the precipitation forecast, equal chances of above and below normal precipitation are indicated for the Northwest CONUS. Mean troughing over the Aleutian Islands in dynamical model forecasts leads to likely above normal precipitation for much of the southern coast of Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, supported by precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and JMA ensembles and the SubX MME.

Probabilistic forecasts from the SubX MME indicate likely above normal temperatures for all of the Hawaiian Islands, with greater probabilities for the southeast islands and lower probabilities for the northwest islands. Consensus probability forecasts from the SubX MME indicate below normal precipitation is likely across the Hawaiian Islands.

Here are two other useful graphics from my weekly report which update automatically.

First the Day 3 Mid-Atmosphere pattern.

And then the Day 7 forecast.

The below is of interest.

5. U.S. Crop Information

These maps will not be updated until the end of the Partial Government Shutdown.

6. International Crop and Weather Related Information

Latest on the Situation in Australia.

From the Tuesday, 15 Jan issue of The Australian

Extreme fire alert in record heatwave

Black Saturday temperature records are set to be broken with temperatures soaring to the high 40s in northern Victoria.

Marble Bar in Western Australia’s Pilbara smashed the January record for heat with temperatures hitting 49.1C on Sunday.

The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted temperatures up to 12C higher than average in parts of central Western Australia, Victoria, NSW, South Australia, and southern Queensland.

In South Australia, the government declared a “code red” to unlock extra funds for homeless shelters in the scorching temperatures , as parts of the state are set to swelter through five consecutive days of over 45C.

A total fire ban is in place across Victoria today with Emergency Management Victoria warning residents to prepare for the extreme heat.

There is an extreme risk of fire in the Wimmera region, a high risk of fire in the Mallee, the northern country and northern central Victoria with the rest of the state put on alert ahead of a severe risk.

Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp said the danger of fire was real.

“There is significant risk of fire in all regions and we ask that people increase their fire preparedness to ensure safer fire outcomes, Commissioner Crisp said. He advised Victorians, especially those attending the Australian Open tennis, to prepare for the extreme heat, remain hydrated and to check on others.

“Look after those most at risk in the heat – your neighbour living alone, the elderly, the young, people with a medical condition and don’t forget your pets.” he said.

A Bureau of Meteorology spokesman said records set a decade ago during Black Saturday , which claimed the lives 173 people, could be broken this week in northeastern Victoria.

“Basically it’s going to break some January records, certainly all-time temperature records which were mainly set during the Black Saturday fires,” he said.

The towns set to sweat the most in the coming days are Shepparton, Albury-Wodonga and Echuca, which currently hold record temperatures of 46.1C, 44.8C and 46.8C.

Melbourne city will be spared the worst with temperatures remaining in the low 30s while it will be significantly warmer further inland.

Heat health alerts have been issued in the Mallee, North Central , Northern Country and North East starting yesterday and going through to at least tomorrow ..

The scorching conditions are expected to remain until Friday with southerly winds dropping the mercury to the low 30s in time for the weekend.

Copyright © 2019 The Australian

Some are comparing this to Black Saturday.

Also of interest.

7. Prior Month and when available the Current Month-to date Weather (excluding prior week)

Prior Three Months

Prior Month

Current Month to Date.

And then temperature:

You can generate a wide variety of different graphics here.

8. Science Theme When we Have One.

No Science Theme this week.

9. Economic Impacts

Nothing to report

10. Additional Reference Information

Reservoir Status. This will now be updated as we receive new graphics which is not weekly. We updated most of the graphics this week.

Reservoirs and Stream Flow

Let us look at California

We update these graphics when we receive new ones. They do not auto-update. They tend to change slowly.

This article provides a little background on the problem.

This is not as graphically pleasing. Updates can be obtained here.

We have added more rivers to the discussion. Above we have reservoirs and they are of course connected by rivers. Both are important and provide insight.

Below is a more complete description of

Sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. (Source: NDMC)

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln