Live: Severe Weather Events 14 January Through 20 January 2019

Written by Sig Silber

Updated at 3 PM EST January 14, 2019 to reflect update of overall Hazards Forecast

In this article we provide continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather Related Threats. One important group of threats are Mesoscale Events. A Mesoscale Event is smaller than a large scale or Synoptic Event like a major storm but larger than a micro-climate. Although they sometimes are forecast days in advance, they often spring up fairly quickly which is why we are publishing this report. We are also paying special attention to snow both as a threat but also of interest to those who travel based on snow conditions. And we also pay attention to travel conditions.

Focus Points this Week: First the West Coast and the East Coast and then gradually the focus changes to the Northern Tier. With this Update, we are adding abnormally low temperatures to the Hazards Focus Points.

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The links at the end of the article will take you to the current threats by category. The maps identify the most significant current threats (click on the area shown on the map to get details) and the links at the end of our report provide the latest information on all outstanding threats in each category. This article updates automatically whenever NOAA issued new information. So for those who have the link to this article in their smart phone, they will be able to get a very thorough picture of severe weather in CONUS, the Continental U.S. not including Alaska.

You will see a number of different maps which are updated in real time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings etc that have since expired.

Our focus here are events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article.. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Overview: This map provides Information but is not set up to provide more detail (since it is a forecast). It generally updates daily but not on the weekend. So I may update the focus points on Monday and again later in the week as appropriate. The maps later in this report can be clicked on to get detail on specific events that are happening RIGHT NOW!

You can see the anticipated Day 3 – 7 Hazards but it may not work out that way. End of week forecast events can easily move into the following week. But it looks like the Northern cold will repeat the following week.

This will be explained more in Mondays Intermediate Term Forecast we issue late Monday Night which most will read on Tuesday. It is the Negative Arctic Oscillation

NOAA does not often show Week-2 Hazards unless they are pretty sure of them.

The above may be a bit premature but the pattern probably starts earlier but further west and I do not have a better graphic to show it. The intrusion of cold Canadian Air and the trough it creates can cause severe weather primarily in advance of the pattern. But there is also the issue of just plain cold.

And Now the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge.

I am not sure this helps but it shows for Days 3 to 6 how the pattern moves across CONUS. The below graphics might help as they update each day.

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The above is an advanced look. Our most recent 25 Day Intermediate-Term Forecast might Provide Additional Information. The URL for that report changes each Monday so you can find it on the Econintersect.com website or consult the Directory which can be accessed here. .

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of itself it is not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Total precipitation for 3 days or 7 days is not necessarily an indication but when it occurs where it is warm there is a risk of flood with high precipitation. Where cold there is a risk of high snow amounts and travel hazards. I do not have a Day 4 – 7 forecast but you can mentally subtract the two above and at least see where the changes are likely to be large during days 4 – 7.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to Get More Detail about these events. I some cases we have been able to add a larger map to the standard map provided by SPC and other NOAA Agencies. Over time we expect to be able to find larger maps for all the warnings. But until then the smaller maps work fine as you are just looking to see if there is a current warning. If these is click on the map for additional information related to the event.

WPC Met Watch

Current Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions (MPDs)

Valid WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

If there are green areas shown on this map, it means that there are currently or anticipated areas of severe weather events. Clicking on the U.S. map will take you to the MPD page at the NOAA where there is information on each of those mesoscale events.

Current Weather Watches

This is the current graphic showing any severe thunderstorm and tornado watches which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read about the purpose of our watches for further information. Details on all valid watches may be found on our Current Convective Watches page.
Current Mesoscale Discussions

We now have a special snow report followed by more NOAA severe weather alert maps.
You need to click on the graphic above twice. Once to get to the NOAA site and another time to pick the region of interest. Below is the snow levels at the time we went to press. That does not update but you can get the current levels (Nationaly and by Region) by clicking the graphic above twice. Below, the static map of current levels at the time we went to press are forecast maps that update related to new snow.

Interesting how the snow appears to be concentrated at a particular latitude…..not further north. We expect the levels further east to be higher soon and we may update the above graphic as it does not auto-update.

Above Day I forecast for 4 inches or more snow. Below Day 3 composite forecast for having 4, 8, or 12 inches of new snow during the next 72 hours (possibly good for skiers) and a forecast for where there may be 1/4 inch of ice (travel risk).

This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks (We have plans to add larger maps but you should be able to see the area to click on with the current small maps)
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook

This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook

The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorm across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are: 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook

Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook

This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook

This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

Watch, Warning and Advisory Links