Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 28.3 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 63.8 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.

Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 161,990
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,049
• What splits the vaccinated is fear. The Scared Vaccinated are scared of what they can’t control, which at this point in the pandemic, is simply other people’s health decisions. They are driven by emotions, not facts.
• Farm Supply Stores Are Running Short on a Horse Dewormer/Pseudoscience COVID Cure
• US nursing home Covid-19 cases are rising much faster in states where fewer staff are vaccinated
• COVID-19 vaccines offer better protection than natural immunity alone
• We Studied One Million Students. This Is What We Learned About Masking
• 5 things we know about Covid-19’s impact on children as they head back to school
• Public favors masks in classrooms but balks at mandating vaccinations for students
• Surge of Child COVID Cases Continues for 6th Consecutive Week
• Trump CDC Director Robert Redfield Warns More Dangerous Variant Than Delta Coming in Fall
• Here’s what to know about breakthrough infections and the Delta variant
• Florida hospitals are overrun as state fights one of the worst outbreaks in U.S
• CDC Lowers Florida COVID Numbers After State Points Out Error
• Plus Many More Headlines …

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.

source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.

Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed

COVID-19 vaccines offer better protection than natural immunity alone – News-Medical

Now, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that among people who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, those who were still unvaccinated are more likely to be reinfected than those fully vaccinated after prior infection.

Now, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that among people who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, those who were still unvaccinated are more likely to be reinfected than those fully vaccinated after prior infection.

The case-control study, which appeared in CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), showed that being unvaccinated was tied to 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with being fully vaccinated.

Reinfection with human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, has been documented. At present, limited evidence concerning the protection provided by vaccination against reinfection is available.

Though evidence suggests that antibody responses after being vaccinated provide better neutralization of some circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants than natural infection, limited studies support the benefit of vaccination for previously infected individuals.

The report, which detailed the benefits of vaccination for previously infected persons, covered the link between vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in Kentucky between May and June 2021, among those who had previous COVID-19 infection in 2020.

US nursing home Covid-19 cases are rising much faster in states where fewer staff are vaccinated – CNN

Weekly case growth in the other states where less than half of the staff is vaccinated against Covid-19 is:

• Mississippi: 18.4 times
• Louisiana: 8.4 times
• Oklahoma: 6.7 times
• Florida: 6.2 times
• Kentucky: 4.2 times
• Missouri: 3.1 times (an exception, lower than overall growth)
• Tennessee: 2.6 times (an exception, lower than overall growth)

Meanwhile, in states that have vaccinated a larger share of staff than average (more than 59%), cases reported in the last week of July were only two times higher than cases reported in the last week of June.

The Pandemic Of The Scared Vaccinated – ZeroHedge

This past week, CNN fired three employees for coming to the office without getting vaccinated. Also, “Friends” star Jennifer Aniston said she had stopped seeing people who had chosen not to be vaccinated. On Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the unvaccinated are allowing the virus to “freely circulate” which “might get a worse variant” that “could evade the protection of the vaccine.”

Fauci, CNN and Aniston are spokesmen for the Scared Vaccinated. Their opposites are the Grateful Vaccinated, who have little to worry about COVID. Nine out of 10 of the vaccinated will not catch the virus. That one “breakthrough” case will be much less severe or no symptoms. None of them will die of COVID.

As it stands now, 71 percent of adults have gotten one shot and 61 percent are fully vaccinated. When you add in the under 18 kids, the average is still 51% of the country is fully vaccinated. Most likely, that number will only increase with children vaccinations because the adults have had time to make a final decision.

The Grateful Vaccinated have gone back to their normal lives — sightseeing, parties, traveling, unmasking. They wonder why other vaccinated people are so angry as things have improved so much.

What splits the vaccinated is fear. The Scared Vaccinated are scared of what they can’t control, which at this point in the pandemic, is simply other people’s health decisions. They are driven by emotions, not facts.

When we are traumatized — which I believe much of the country is from the March 2020 lockdowns — our frontal lobe turns off and our bodies take over for survival. This is why the Scared Vaccinated are so reactive. They are constantly in a state of fight or flight. They see someone without a mask and feel like they could die. They hear someone say he or she is not vaccinated, and they feel like they are being personally attacked.

It is impossible to reason with someone whose body is pumping cortisol and adrenaline. This is why the facts of vaccine effectiveness and the pandemic don’t work when trying to debate with the Scared Vaccinated.

… The Scared Vaccinated have an unspoken belief that it is possible to go back to the Before Times when the novel coronavirus only existed in a lab. This is false.

The virus will continue to mutate and circulate the globe. People will get sick. There is no way to go “COVID zero” in American because a solid 20 percent of adults will never get the vaccine — no matter how much the Scared Vaccinated criticize and shame them.

During the spring and early summer, the Scared Vaccinated used word-of-mouth and social media frames to try to get everyone vaccinated because they thought they would be safe when the vague herd immunity was reached.

[editor’s note: interesting post which deserves a full read]

Pfizer and Moderna Go Head to Head Against Delta – MedPage

Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine appeared to have a higher effectiveness rate compared with the Pfizer vaccine during the period of time when the Delta variant first became predominant, researchers reported.

While both vaccines were highly protective against infection from January to July in Minnesota (Moderna 86%, Pfizer 76%), their effectiveness estimates declined during the month of July, with an estimate of 76% for Moderna (95% CI 69-81) and 42% for Pfizer (95% CI 13-62), reported Venky Soundararajan, PhD, of nference, a healthcare research company in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and colleagues.

Moreover, in a matched cohort from multiple states, a two-fold risk reduction against breakthrough infection was seen with Moderna’s vaccine versus Pfizer’s (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.50, 95% CI 0.39-0.64), the authors wrote in a study published on the preprint server medRxiv.

However, they found no significant differences in the rate of complications in breakthrough cases from either vaccine, with similar rates of 21-day hospitalizations, 21-day ICU admissions, and 28-day mortality.

An earlier report of a Cape Cod cluster of breakthrough infections published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report late last month did not seem to find an imbalance between the percentage of breakthrough infections and the percentage of Massachusetts residents who received the vaccine (46% and 56% with Pfizer, and 38% and 38% with Moderna, respectively).

We Studied One Million Students. This Is What We Learned About Masking. – New York Times

… Vaccination is the strongest method for preventing the ill effects of Covid, but students under 12 years of age are ineligible for the vaccines. Masking, then, is one of the best, most readily available methods to protect them from the disease, with universal masking being one of the most effective and efficient strategies for preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools.

Universal masking in schools can save lives. Voluntary masking in schools will likely be much less effective and could lead to school closures and community transmission. This summer, we’ve seen that voluntary masking has failed in some schools in Missouri and North Carolina, which saw increases in Covid-19 cases and days missed because of quarantines, prompting several districts to reinstate mask mandates.

How do we know that masking helps prevent spread among unvaccinated people in schools? In July 2020, we and our colleagues developed the ABC Science Collaborative to pair scientists with school and community leaders to make sure that school leaders had the most up-to-date, scientific information pertaining to Covid-19 and K-12 schools. In conjunction with North Carolina, the ABC Science Collaborative collected data from more than one million students and staff members in the state’s schools from March to June 2021. Certain school districts in North Carolina were required, by bipartisan legislation, to submit infection data to the ABC Science Collaborative as a trusted third party.

During that time, more than 7,000 children and adults acquired the coronavirus and attended school while infectious. Because of close contact with those cases, more than 40,000 people required quarantine. Through contact tracing and testing, however, we found only 363 additional children and adults acquired the coronavirus. We believe this low rate of transmission occurred because of the mask-on-mask school environment: Both the infected person and the close contact wore masks. Schools provided this protection without expensive screening tests for the coronavirus or massive overhauls in ventilation systems.

Farm Supply Stores Are Running Short on a Horse Dewormer/Pseudoscience COVID Cure – Slate

Folks who are skeptical of masks and vaccines but still believe in COVID have turned to a variety of pseudoscience tools since the start of the pandemic, including bleach, UV rays, and … livestock dewormer. The latter, the antiparasitic ivermectin, is lauded by some as a panacea to a pandemic that has killed upward of 4 million people around the globe—and you can find it at your nearest farm supply store.

In humans, ivermectin is used to treat parasitic worms, scabies, and extreme cases of lice. It first became touted as a COVID cure in April 2020 after Australian researchers published a study claiming the antiparasitic could kill the coronavirus within 48 hours when used in large doses in laboratory settings. (Pharma giant and ivermectin manufacturer Merck later warned that the studies promoting ivermectin as a cure for COVID had a “concerning lack of safety data.”) Now that the delta variant is causing COVID rates in the U.S. to rise astronomically yet again, more people are again looking to the drug as a cure. But the evidence often cited by its proponents comes from questionable studies—one of the largest studies in support of the drug as a COVID treatment was recently withdrawn over ethical concerns, and a review of other studies by the medical research organization Cochrane concluded against the use of ivermectin.

Nevertheless, ever since it became popular as a supposed cure-all for COVID, it’s become harder for “COVID truthers” to file the prescriptions from shady online doctors at pharmacies after pharmacists began to crack down on what they saw as a potentially problematic increase in ivermectin requests, often in too-large doses and from difficult-to-reach doctors.

So, people have been turning to the animal versions available at farm stores instead: a paste for horses, a “drench” for sheep, and injectables for pigs and cows. Facebook groups and Telegram chats have also popped up, filled with people giving questionable advice on dosage, side effects, and best practices for the antiparasitic. On an Amazon comments section for an apple-flavored horse paste, one commenter spewed false equivalencies about viruses and parasites before writing, “Flavor is bearable but then I am not a horse.” Another commenter who has been using it as “preventative medicine” claimed that ivermectin was medicine that a nebulous “they” were trying to keep secret. And yet another wrote that they bought it for “the you know what.” (Update, Aug. 10, 2021: Amazon tells Slate in a statement, “The reviews referenced violate our policy and have been removed. We want Amazon customers to shop with confidence knowing that the reviews they read are authentic and relevant. We have clear policies for both reviewers and selling partners that prohibit abuse of our community features.”)

This is all despite the fact that animal ivermectin is not safe for humans. At all. In fact, there’s even been an increase in calls to poison control centers from people who overdosed on the animal drug, which can be deadly if used improperly. The Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization both have explicit guidelines against the use of the drug for COVID purposes.

Surge of Child COVID Cases Continues for 6th Consecutive Week – Medscape

The current COVID-19 surge has brought new cases in children to their highest level since February, according to a new report.

New pediatric cases rose for the 6th straight week, with almost 94,000 reported for the week ending Aug. 5.

That weekly total was up by 31% over the previous week and by over 1,000% since late June, when the new-case figure was at its lowest point (8,447) since early in the pandemic, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association said. COVID-related deaths — 13 for the week — were also higher than at any time since March 2021.

Almost 4.3 million children have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, which is 14.3% of all cases reported in 49 states (excluding New York), the District of Columbia, New York City, Puerto Rico, and Guam. Children represented 15.0% of the new cases reported in those jurisdictions during the week ending Aug. 5, the AAP and CHA said in their weekly report.

Trump CDC Director Robert Redfield Warns More Dangerous Variant Than Delta Coming in Fall – Newsweek

As hospitals are already being pushed to their limits, Dr. Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), warned an even more infectious variant could hit the United States in just a few months.

The Delta variant’s contagious nature is fueling spikes in cases across the United States and the more the virus is allowed to spread, the more likely it is to evolve. COVID-19 was already one of the most infectious diseases in humans at its outset, and Redfield warned it got a “jump-start” on being able to evolve at a rapid pace, making the need for vaccinations even more critical.

“Sadly I’m going to predict that within two, three, four months we’re going to have another variant and that variant is going to be more infectious,” Redfield told Fox News on Monday. “The one thing that we all can do to really confront the evolution of this next variant, slow it down, is to get our population vaccinated.”

A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta May Be Coming, Scientists Say

Aside from the immediate economic and human toll the pandemic is taking on the world, SARS-CoV-2 continuing to spread raises concerns about the future of the outbreak. Redfield pointed out that the virus is replicating at a high capacity in humans, making the risk of variant evolution “extremely high.”

[editor’s note: also read A Doomsday COVID Variant Worse Than Delta May Be Coming, Scientists Say]

Here’s what to know about breakthrough infections and the Delta variant – New York Times

Here’s what’s useful to know about breakthrough infections and the Delta variant:

• The vaccines were intended to prevent hospitalization and death, in large part the result of damage to the lungs and other organs. The vaccines produce antibodies in the blood that prevent the coronavirus from taking root in those organs.

• Early in the infection, when people are most likely to be contagious, the Delta variant seems to replicate in amounts that are perhaps 1,000 times as much as those seen in people infected with other variants, defeating immune defenses in the nose and throat.

• Some experts believe breakthrough infections are likelier after exposure to the Delta variant than to prior forms of the virus. Even when more recent data becomes available, however, it still is likely to show that most hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 occur in unvaccinated people.

• In some rare cases, breakthrough infections may lead to persistent symptoms. “Long Covid” is a poorly understood set of symptoms that can affect people for several months after an active infection has ended. A couple of small studies have investigated how common or severe long Covid may be after breakthrough infections. It is likely to be rare, some experts say, because breakthrough infections are uncommon and shorter in duration.

Florida hospitals are overrun as state fights one of the worst outbreaks in U.S. – CNBC

• Hospitals across Florida are now being pushed to the limit as the state fights one of the worst Covid-19 outbreaks in the nation, fueled by the delta variant.
• The state accounts for almost 18% of new cases in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
• Florida’s surge in cases comes as GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to resist calls to enforce mask mandates and other pandemic-related measures.

[editor’s note: see next article]

CDC Lowers Florida COVID Numbers After State Points Out Error – Newsmax

At a time of raised tensions between President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over school mask mandates, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention adjusted its coronavirus count tracking for the state after Tallahassee said the original figures were inaccuraely inflated, the New York Post reported on Wednesday, as confusion over reporting practices sparked a feud between federal and state authorities.

When the CDC website posted record high coronavirus numbers once again for Florida this past Sunday, the state’s Department of Health accused the agency of putting several days of new cases together incorrectly, saying the real number should have been 15,319 instead of the 28,317 that the CDC stated.

On Tuesday, the CDC adjusted its number down to 19,584 and said that it was in discussions with Florida officials to make sure any inaccuracies are corrected.

But despite the corrected lower figure, the coronavirus situation has still shown serious deterioration over the past three weeks in Florida, according to the CDC numbers, Fox News reported.

The CDC reported that Florida had more than 20,000 cases for its 7-day average of new cases and that hospitalizations went up by more than 1,100 on Tuesday to 14,787 patients with coronavirus, the highest in the country.

In addition, more than 47% of ICU beds were taken by approximately 3,000 coronavirus patients, a figure which has almost tripled in the last three weeks.

5 things we know about Covid-19’s impact on children as they head back to school – CNN

Here are 5 key takeaways about Covid-19 in children:

1. Almost half of children hospitalized with Covid-19 had no known underlying condition: With the rise in both new cases and hospitalizations recently, it’s not just children with preexisting conditions getting hospitalized. 46.4%, or almost half of children hospitalized with Covid-19 between March 2020 and June 2021, had no known underlying condition, according to CDC data from almost 100 US counties.
2. Covid-19 deaths in children shouldn’t be ignored, CDC chief says: While children are far less likely to die from Covid-19 than adults, the deaths are still significant. At least 542 children in the US have died from Covid-19, according to CDC data. Moreover, the number of Covid-19 deaths among children is more than twice the number of pediatric flu deaths reported by the CDC between 2019-2020. Covid-19 is much deadlier than other diseases because many children are already vaccinated against those diseases, said Dr. James Campbell, professor of pediatrics at the University of Maryland School of Medicine.
3. Protecting kids from Covid-19 is critical to keep them in schools: Some students are returning to schools for the first time in a year, but long-awaited classroom learning can be quickly derailed by an infection or outbreak. For example, in Atlanta, more than 100 students at Drew Charter School had to quarantine after nine students and five staff members tested positive. In addition to masks in schools, the CDC recommends layering other strategies such as improved ventilation, physical distancing and testing on a screening basis.
4. Covid can leave lasting impacts on children: Long-term Covid-19 complications can be significant for children, even for some who initially had mild or no symptoms, the American Academy of Pediatrics said. Problems can include respiratory symptoms, heart issues, cognitive problems, headache, fatigue and mental health issues, according to the AAP. Moreover, some children who start with mild or even no symptoms from Covid-19 end up hospitalized weeks or months later with a condition called MIS-C, or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. MIS-C is “a rare but serious condition associated with COVID-19 in which different body parts become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs,” the CDC says.
5. Children can accidentally help spur new variants: Protecting children from getting Covid-19 can help everyone in the long run, doctors say. As coronavirus keeps spreading, replicating itself in new people, the more chances it has to mutate and potentially lead to even more contagious variants or one that might evade vaccines.

Public favors masks in classrooms but balks at mandating vaccinations for students – News-Medical

As the spread of the delta variant threatens the safety of classrooms, a poll released Wednesday found nearly two-thirds of parents support schools’ requiring unvaccinated students age 5 or older and teachers to wear masks.

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Siberia’s wildfires are bigger than all the world’s other blazes combined

Germany will stop offering free Covid tests to adults who choose not to get vaccinated.

Afghan officials: 3 more provincial capitals fall to Taliban

In Iran, slow vaccinations fuel anger in unending pandemic

Senegal’s ambulance teams struggle amid a wave of COVID-19

U.S. officials warn collapse of Afghan capital could come sooner than expected

Thousands offered revaccination after German nurse admits to injecting patients with saline instead of coronavirus vaccines, sparking fury

Thailand to trial two domestically produced nasal Covid vaccines on humans after successful tests on mice

The World Health Organization announced their Solidarity PLUS trial will test artesunate, imatinib and infliximab in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in 52 countries.

In Australia, high vaccine hesitancy among most vulnerable to COVID-1. World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines indicate the optimal timing of vaccination among specific groups based on the probability of infection and transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), e.g., health care workers providing direct care or acute disease and death (e.g., older people, organ transplant recipients).

Scientists from Germany and Belgium have recently described the immunogenicity of a plant-based virus-like particle vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The vaccine induces robust antibody and T cell responses for at least 6 months. Moreover, the vaccine demonstrates potent neutralizing efficacy against the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P1 variants of SARS-CoV-2.

France Seeks Volunteers to Help Battle COVID-19 in Caribbean

France warns of deteriorating coronavirus conditions in Martinique, Guadeloupe

US sending 837K vaccine doses to Caribbean

Chinese COVID-19 outbreak linked to mahjong parlors, testing sites

Global economic recovery from the pandemic may be slowing, the O.E.C.D. says.

Bangladesh ends a strict lockdown even as cases rise.

Letter from 175 public health experts urges Biden to be on “wartime footing” to vaccinate the world

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Texas House Speaker Signs Arrest Warrants for 52 Absent Democrats

The Senate passed President Biden’s $1 trillion infrastructure bill, with 19 Republicans voting in favor. It now heads to the House. Here’s what’s in the bill.

The Senate also approved a $3.5 trillion budget plan along party lines that would fund climate, education and health care policies.

YouTube suspended Senator Rand Paul and Twitter suspended Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene for spreading misinformation.

Oregon will restore a statewide mask mandate.

Post-Vax Myocarditis Also Mild in Teens, Early Cases Suggest

See data from 40 states about breakthrough infections.

Pacific Northwest braces for another multiday heat wave

US importers squeezed for warehousing at ports, inland hubs

“Worst Case Scenario”: “Woke” Olympic Ratings Plunge Nearly 50%, Forcing NBC To Hand Out Free Ad Space

The NIH announced it is launching a study of a third vaccine dose for kidney transplant patients who didn’t respond to their first two doses of mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer or Moderna.

COVID-19 remains a hot topic in Washington, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) calling for “no mandates” related to the coronavirus, while Sen. Rand Paul, MD (R-Ky.) urged Americans to remain defiant in the face of increased rules.

A Texas judge granted officials in San Antonio and Bexar County a restraining order allowing them to mandate mask-wearing in city and county buildings and local schools.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announced teachers and school employees in the state must either be vaccinated or tested regularly for COVID.

It’s not easy to donate unused COVID vaccines, as the state of Alabama found out.

Fine aerosols generated during talking, singing may play a major role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been thought to spread primarily when an infected person coughs or sneezes, but little is known about its transmissibility through activities such as breathing, talking, and singing.

Both mRNA vaccines protect against symptomatic disease with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant. A new study demonstrates that the two mRNA vaccines have widely varying efficacies against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant.

An intriguing new study reveals that the closer you are to green spaces, especially forests, the less likely you are to be infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Hawaii reinstating COVID-19 restrictions

Facebook bans Russian disinformation campaign that said vaccines turn people into chimpanzees

California Becomes First State to Mandate COVID Vaccines for Teachers

CDC Tells Pregnant Women to Get Vaccine, No Increased Miscarriage Risk

Mississippi COVID Vaccine Rates up 107 Percent Amid Delta Variant Fears

An estimated 1.1 million people who received the Pfizer or Modera vaccine came back for a third, unauthorized booster dose.

Tropical Storm Fred Develops, Barrels Toward Florida as COVID Surges

McDonald’s delays return to work for office workers, will require vaccination

Florida hospitals are overrun as state fights one of the worst outbreaks in U.S.

Amtrak mandates that all employees get vaccinated

Vaccine expert says data does not yet show a need for Covid-19 boosters

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks

July 2021 CPI: Year-over-Year Inflation Unchanged

Nations Largest Employers Asking Workers To Get Vaxxed

Minority Banks During The COVID-19 Pandemic

Biotechnology Greed Is Prolonging The Pandemic. It’s Inexcusable.

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