Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 55.3 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 11.1 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago.
Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 122,674
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 671
- Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimates up to 1 million Americans infected with Covid daily as delta spreads
- Six cruise ship passengers test positive for Covid: 4 vaccinated, 2 unvaccinated
- National vaccine mandate ‘not under consideration at this time’
- WHO officials try to figure out why delta is so much more dangerous
- Former Trump official says ‘just a matter of time’ before unvaccinated get delta variant
- FDA puts all hands on deck to review Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 shot
- Lower Vax Rates in Nursing Homes Among Low-Wage Staff
- Congress fails to extend eviction moratorium, despite last-minute effort
- Why A Looming Copper Shortage Has Big Consequences For The Green Economy
- Tokyo’s Coronavirus Cases Are Soaring, But Japan’s PM Says The Games Are Not To Blame
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Six cruise ship passengers test positive for Covid: 4 vaccinated, 2 unvaccinated – CNN
Six guests have tested positive for Covid-19 on Royal Caribbean’s Adventure of the Seas cruise ship, the cruise line confirmed Friday.
Four of the guests are vaccinated and two are unvaccinated minors, Royal Caribbean International said in a statement. The seven-night cruise departed from Nassau, Bahamas, on July 25.
One of the four vaccinated guests has mild symptoms, the company said, and three are asymptomatic. The four are not traveling together.
The two unvaccinated minors were in the same party and are asymptomatic, according to Royal Caribbean.
“The guests were immediately quarantined, and their immediate travel party and all close contacts were traced and all tested negative,” the cruise line’s statement said.
The infections were detected during routine testing that is required of all guests before returning home.
The six guests and their immediate travel parties will disembark in Freeport, Bahamas, on Friday. They will separately travel home “via private transportation,” Royal Caribbean said.
Tokyo’s Coronavirus Cases Are Soaring, But Japan’s PM Says The Games Are Not To Blame – NPR
Even as new coronavirus cases surge in Tokyo to rates not seen since the pandemic began, Japan’s prime minister says the Olympics are not causing the spike.
Officials on Thursday confirmed 3,865 new cases in Japan’s capital, the highest daily tally reported, just as the Tokyo Olympics near their halfway point.
It’s the third day in a row the city has set a record for new cases, which started spiking shortly after people associated with the Olympics began arriving in Japan. Before Olympic personnel began entering Tokyo, the capital’s daily cases were fewer than 700.
But on the same day Japan’s total daily cases topped 10,000 for the first time, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said there’s no link between the Games and rising coronavirus infections.
“Since we have imposed virus-curbing measures, such as cutting the flow of people (in public) and stricter border controls to prevent the spread of the virus by foreign visitors, I think there is none,” he said.
Why A Looming Copper Shortage Has Big Consequences For The Green Economy – YouTube
Copper prices have surged in 2021. The base metal remains in high demand, much thanks to its need in green energy projects and electric cars. In May 2021, commodities analysts at Goldman Sachs called copper ‘the new oil.’ That’s because electric cars need several times more copper than their gas-powered counterparts. And power grids getting electricity from wind, solar and hydro sources also need copper—much more than the industry is currently producing. Here’s how copper became so important to the world economy and the green energy revolution.
Vaccination is not enough by itself to stop the spread of variants, study finds – CNN
Vaccination alone won’t stop the rise of new variants and in fact could push the evolution of strains that evade their protection, researchers warned Friday.
They said people need to wear masks and take other steps to prevent spread until almost everyone in a population has been vaccinated.
Their findings, published in Nature Scientific Reports, support an unpopular decision by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to advise even fully vaccinated people to start wearing masks again in areas of sustained or high transmission.
“We found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain,” the team wrote.”Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated, the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased,” they added.
“Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviors throughout the entire vaccination period.”
“When most people are vaccinated, the vaccine-resistant strain has an advantage over the original strain,” Simon Rella of the Institute of Science and Technology Austria, who worked on the study, told reporters.
“This means the vaccine resistant strain spreads through the population faster at a time when most people are vaccinated.”
But if so-called non pharmaceutical interventions are maintained — such as mask use and social distancing — the virus is less likely to spread and change. “There is a chance to remove the vaccine resistant mutations from the population,” Rella said.
The team used a mathematical model to predict these changes, but their findings follow what is known about the epidemiology of viruses and what’s known as selective pressure — the force that drives any organism to evolve.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimates up to 1 million Americans infected with Covid daily as delta spreads – CNBC
- The highly transmissible delta variant is driving a surge in Covid cases across the U.S.
- However, Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday he believes the coronavirus is significantly more widespread in the U.S. than official case counts reflect.
- “I wouldn’t be surprised if, on the whole, we’re infecting up to a million people a day right now,” the former FDA chief said.
Former Trump official says ‘just a matter of time’ before unvaccinated get delta variant – The Hill
Brett Giroir, former President Trump‘s coronavirus testing czar, on Thursday urged anyone who has not yet gotten vaccinated against COVID-19 to quickly do so, arguing that it is “just a matter of time” before all unvaccinated individuals become infected with the delta variant of the virus.
The ex-Trump official, in an interview on Fox News’s “America Reports,” emphasized health guidance that the potential side effects of the coronavirus vaccine “pale in comparison to what you will get if you get the COVID infection,” adding that the highly transmissible delta variant poses an even greater risk.
“If you have not been vaccinated, and you have not had COVID before, you will get the delta variant,” Giroir argued. “This is so infectious that you will get it.”
He went on to say that while a previous COVID-19 infection may give some natural immunity, it is not clear how long this protection lasts, adding, “The evidence is mounting that even natural immunity will not protect you against delta.”
“It is just a matter of time,” he argued. “Remember, you can get the flu every year. It’s not because your immunity isn’t good, it’s because the flu changes, and delta is really a new strain that is different than everything we’ve seen.”
“I am really concerned that natural immunity, although real, is not going to be sufficient against delta,” Giroir continued. “If you don’t have natural immunity and you’re not vaccinated, you’re going to get delta, so prevent it by getting your vaccine.”
FDA puts all hands on deck to review Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 shot – The Edge Markets
US drug regulators are taking an “all-hands-on-deck approach” to reviewing Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE’s Covid-19 shot for full approval in an effort to persuade as many as possible to get immunized.
The Food and Drug Administration is “identifying additional resources such as personnel and technological resources from across the agency and opportunities to reprioritize other activities, in order to complete our review to help combat this pandemic surge,” agency spokesperson Abby Capobianco said. Acting Director Janet Woodcock has “offered all agency resources to the team to make this happen,” she said.
Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine gained emergency use authorization in December, but many people are waiting for the vaccine to undergo a full review before getting it. The Biden administration is working to vaccinate as many as possible as the highly transmissible delta variant spreads across the US, threatening Americans’ return to normal activities.
“We recognize that for some, the FDA approval of Covid-19 vaccines may bring additional confidence and encourage them to get vaccinated,” Capobianco said in the statement. “FDA staff will conduct a thorough review process, while balancing the incredible sense of urgency necessary, both of which are needed to ensure that any vaccine that is authorized or approved meets our rigorous standards for safety, effectiveness, and quality.”
Pfizer submitted the application for full approval in early May. The FDA’s plan to expedite review of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was reported earlier by STAT.
Congress fails to extend eviction moratorium, despite last-minute effort – USA Today
After scrambling for votes all day, the House of Representatives on Friday failed to pass a bill that would have extended a freeze on evictions that is slated to expire Saturday.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Whip James Clyburn released a joint statement on the failed bill and blamed Republicans.
“It is extremely disappointing that House and Senate Republicans have refused to work with us on this issue,” they wrote in the statement. “We strongly urge them to reconsider their opposition to helping millions of Americans and instead join with us to help renters and landlords hit hardest by the pandemic and prevent a nationwide eviction crisis.”
California Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters, who introduced the bill, said she did not sign the statement.
CDC: Lower Vax Rates in Nursing Homes Among Low-Wage Staff – MedPage
COVID-19 vaccination rates varied widely among healthcare personnel (HCP) who worked in long-term care facilities (LTCFs), with less than half of aides vaccinated, researchers found.
In March 2021, the highest vaccination rates were seen in physicians and advanced practice providers (75%), while the lowest rates occurred in aides (45.6%), reported James T. Lee, MD, of the CDC, and colleagues.
Not surprisingly, only 11.1% of physicians declined vaccination compared to a third of aides, the authors wrote in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
Social and demographic factors — such as lower median income, lower education, greater ethnic diversity and higher poverty rates — played a role in aides’ vaccination rates, they noted.
“This study shows how health disparities exist, not only in communities and neighborhoods, but within the entity of healthcare itself,” Panagis Galiatsatos, MD, MHS, of Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, told MedPage Today.
Galiatsatos, who was not involved in this study, added that “more work needs to be put forward to assure an equitable outcome is achieved in vaccine rates among healthcare staff and employees, especially those employed in long-term care facilities.”
White House: National vaccine mandate ‘not under consideration at this time’ – The Hill
The White House is not presently considering a national requirement for the COVID-19 vaccine, principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Friday.
“A national vaccine requirement is not under consideration at this time. That’s where we are with that,” Jean-Pierre said at a press briefing.
The possibility was raised by Fox News correspondent Peter Doocy after President Biden said a day earlier said it was “still a question” whether the federal government can mandate the vaccine for the entire country.
“I don’t know that yet,” Biden said Thursday, adding that the Justice Department had determined that local communities could legally require the shot.
Public health experts and lawmakers have debated in recent weeks the usefulness of vaccine mandates and whether the country will need to reimpose certain restrictions on businesses as coronavirus cases rise nationwide due to the highly contagious delta variant.
Republicans have warned against any type of national mandate, arguing it would be a gross overreach by the federal government, particularly since the Food and Drug Administration has not given full authorization to the shots, despite their administration to millions of Americans.
WHO officials try to figure out why delta is so much more dangerous – CNBC
World Health Organization officials said they are still trying to understand why the delta variant is more transmissible and potentially makes people sicker than the original coronavirus strain.
“We’re really trying to get a better handle on why the delta variant is more transmissible,” said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’S technical lead on Covid-19, said at a press briefing Friday. “There are certain mutations in the delta variant that, for example, allow the virus to adhere to a cell more easily. There is some laboratory studies that suggest that there’s increased replication in some of the modeled human airway systems.”
New data is emerging around the world on the highly transmissible strain in recent weeks as scientists try to better understand the new threat. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned lawmakers Thursday that new research indicates the delta strain is more contagious than swine flu, the common cold and polio. It is as contagious as chickenpox. It also appears to have a longer transmission window than the original Covid-19 strain and may make older people sicker, even if they’ve been fully vaccinated.
The warning on Thursday was made in a confidential document that was reviewed by CNBC and authenticated by the federal health agency.
“The virus itself, as it starts, is a dangerous virus. It’s a highly transmissible virus. The Delta variant is even more so,” Van Kerkhove said. “It’s doubly more transmissible than the ancestral strains.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Travelers Fined After Allegedly Falsifying Vaccination Documents. The Public Health Agency of Canada said people who submit false information about vaccination status could face a “fine of up to $750,000 or six months imprisonment or both.”
Missing genetic data on the early coronavirus from China has re-emerged.
Virus cases are rising around the world, and deaths in Africa are surging.
Kenya bans in-person meetings, public gatherings as COVID surges
China races to curb Delta-fuelled COVID outbreak, worst in months
India’s excess deaths could be highest among nations with the most recorded COVID-19 fatalities
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Cash Flood Drives Use of Fed Reverse Repo to Record $1 Trillion.
Pelosi Bid to Head Off Evictions Crumbles in Setback for Biden.
Wary of blackouts, Newsom offers cash for conservation as California faces energy squeeze.
Florida Virus Cases Soar, Hospitals Near Last Summer’s Peak
Walmart mandating vaccines for corporate employees
Publix will require employees to wear masks
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Accuses Biden of Creating ‘Constitutional Crisis’. “This stems from the Biden Administration’s refusal to enforce immigration laws and allow illegal immigrants with COVID-19 to enter our country,” Abbott said Friday.
76 COVID Cases in 17 States Linked to North Carolina Christian Summer Camp
60 Percent of Deer Tested in Michigan Have Been Exposed to SARS-CoV-2. “There is no evidence that animals, including deer, are playing a significant role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to people,” noted the study.
Disney to Require All U.S. Employees, Cast Members to Be Vaccinated
New Orleans EMS can’t keep up with calls due to the Covid-19 surge as mayor restores a mask mandate
WH condemns WaPo, NYT for ‘completely irresponsible’ tweets hyping COVID spread among vaccinated
Florida close to worst COVID-19 week ever with more than 110,000 infections
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
July 2021 Chemical Activity Barometer Index Growth Softens
Fewest Teen Jobs Added Since 2015 Millions Of Open Jobs Not Attracting More Teen Workers
Is It Too Late To Buy Moderna Stock?
Americans Tend To Stick To Their Stance On COVID-19 Vaccines
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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