Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 63.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 1.8 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 22,472
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 101
- Patents Prove SARS-CoV-2 Is a Manufactured Virus
- Fauci: ‘There’s no way’ the coronavirus was made with U.S. research funds.
- Delta is dangerous and spreading — but vaccination can stop it
- Biden Gaffe Renews Questions About COVID Transparency
- Why some experts recommend upgrading to N95 masks to help fight the delta variant
- Covid could be spread through flatulence
- A second crisis is killing survivors of India’s worst COVID wave
- The Delta variant is another massive headache for the Fed
- Covid cost to last for ‘decades’ – and is UK a variant breeding ground?
- We may finally know why the delta variant of coronavirus is so infectious
- Clothing Chain Fined $3.7M for ‘Potentially Dangerous’ COVID Claims
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Econintersect published today two summary posts for COVID news this past week:
Fauci: ‘There’s no way’ the coronavirus was made with U.S. research funds. Here’s why – Los Angeles Times
From the pandemic’s earliest days, Dr. Anthony Fauci has drawn political fire from COVID-19 skeptics. As director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Fauci is steeped in the scientific disciplines of virology, immunology and vaccine design. But critics, especially President Trump and his political allies, continue to excoriate him for supporting textbook public health measures like wearing face coverings and building immunity with vaccines.
The latest example occurred this week on Capitol Hill, when Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) effectively accused Fauci of sending U.S. tax dollars to China so scientists there could soup up coronaviruses culled from bats and make them more dangerous to people. Then he accused Fauci of lying to Congress about the purported project.
In a final shot, Paul said Fauci could be responsible for more than 4 million deaths worldwide.
Fauci has stoically endured a lot of molten rhetoric over the past 18 months, but he did not accept these charges quietly.
“Sen. Paul, you do not know what you’re talking about, and I want to say that officially,” Fauci said. “I totally resent the lie you are now propagating.”
[editor’s note: this is an interesting post which deserves a full read]
Patents Prove SARS-CoV-2 Is a Manufactured Virus – Mercola
[editor’s note: I realize that Mercola is distrusted by many – and I avoid publishing most of his posts because of errors in analysis or errors of omission. But that does not mean he is always wrong. The following post I find credible although may contain partial truths (just like most articles published by CNN and the other mass media clowns)]
- Hundreds of patents show SARS-CoV-2 is a manmade virus that has been tinkered with for decades. Much of the research was funded by the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) under the direction of Dr. Anthony Fauci, and may have been an outgrowth of attempts to develop an HIV vaccine
- In 1999, Fauci funded research at University of North Carolina Chapel Hill to create “an infectious replication-defective coronavirus” specifically targeted for human lung epithelium. This appears to be the virus that became known as SARS-CoV
- U.S. Patent 7279327 shows we knew the ACE receptor, the ACE2 binding domain, the S-1 spike protein, and other elements of SARS-CoV-2 were engineered and could be synthetically modified using gene sequencing technologies
- The CDC holds patents to a SARS coronavirus that is 89% to 99% identical to the sequence identified as SARS-CoV-2, as well as the PCR test to diagnose it
- 120 patents detail supposed “unique” features of SARS-CoV-2: the polybasic cleavage site, the spike protein and the ACE2 binding, proving it’s not a novel virus at all
Biden Gaffe Renews Questions About COVID Transparency – ZeroHedge
President Biden so desperately wants the vaccine-hesitant part of the country to get their shots that he may have spread a little misinformation.
“You are not going to get COVID,” he promised during a CNN town-event Wednesday night, “if you have these vaccines.”
Of course, this is not true. Biden knows it. He said as much later during the forum, explaining that, while vaccinated individuals enjoy significant protections, they can still test positive for the virus. But even if that happens, the president pointed out, the vaccine largely mitigates the most serious dangers. “You are not going to be hospitalized,” he said, reciting the latest scientific consensus. “You are not going to be in the IC unit, and you are not going to die.”
The fact that fully vaccinated individuals can still contract the coronavirus is a medical reality. It has also led to more uncomfortable questions about transparency for the Biden administration.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki revealed at Tuesday’s briefing that there had been previously undisclosed “breakthrough infections” among vaccinated employees at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Psaki refused, two days later, to say how many White House officials had gotten sick.
Delta is dangerous and spreading — but vaccination can stop it – CNN
I’m hearing from vaccinated people who are frightened about breakthrough cases, the Delta variant and new waves of Covid. But people who are fully vaccinated are not the ones who should be most concerned. As new cases continue to climb almost everywhere, here’s what I expect to happen over the coming weeks.
Globally, we’re far from the end of the pandemic. Delta is at least two times more contagious than the original strain of the virus, which means that it will infect and kill more people.
Many countries that have avoided big surges so far don’t have access to the vaccines they need to protect their populations. Many of these countries will likely see explosive spread of Covid over the coming weeks and months. Already stressed health systems will become overwhelmed with cases, and many people will get sick and die.
But in places with high rates of vaccination, including much of the United States, the worst is over. Though we’ll likely also see big increases in US cases, future waves won’t be as deadly. That’s because 80% of the most vulnerable Americans — people over age 65 — are fully vaccinated.
Simply put: Fewer vulnerable people means fewer deaths. Whereas the US infection fatality rate before vaccines became available was 1 in 200, that rate could shrink to less than 1 in 500 or even as low as 1 in 1,000 in the coming months because of the strong protection provided by vaccines — even if we see many breakthrough infections.
In places where disease continues to spread, deaths may increase, particularly among adults who are not vaccinated. Because the people most vulnerable to Covid have a high vaccination rate, the increase in deaths will be much smaller than the past horrific increases. But we have to prepare ourselves for the eventuality that more people will die — some of whom will be young and otherwise healthy.
Why some experts recommend upgrading to N95 masks to help fight the delta variant – Washington Post/Yahoo
The debate over masks is heating up again, with increasing calls for all Americans, regardless of coronavirus vaccination status, to return to wearing face coverings in indoor public places to help thwart the spread of the highly contagious delta variant. But some experts say the recommendations should specify the kind of masks people should be using.
“Delta is so contagious that when we talk about masks, I don’t think we should just talk about masks,” Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said during a recent appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “I think we should be talking about high-quality masks,” such as N95 respirators.
In an interview with The Washington Post, Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine and an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco, expressed a similar sentiment: “We can’t say we’re going back to masks without discussing type of mask.”
– Not all masks are created equal. The efficacy of a mask is based on its material and fit. Medical-grade respirators, such as N95 masks, can provide greater protection from infectious coronavirus particles than surgical masks or cloth masks, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech who studies airborne virus transmission.
And because the delta variant is much more easily transmissible than previously circulating strains of the coronavirus, “we really need highly protective masks along with everything else,” Marr said. “Where a simple cloth mask was helpful before, it’s not helpful enough now,” particularly for people who remain unvaccinated.
The woven material of many cloth masks isn’t as effective at filtering particles as the nonwoven, meltblown polypropylene used to make surgical masks and respirators, Marr said. And properly worn N95s have a leg up on standard surgical masks because they are designed to fit snugly to the face – which allows them to filter at least 95 percent of airborne particulates.
– Fit and mask care matter. It’s also critical to wear N95s properly, experts said: There should be no gaps between the edges of the mask and your face. To test the seal of your mask, Marr suggested putting on your mask and cupping your hands around it to hold the edges down. If breathing becomes noticeably more difficult, that’s a sign that the mask likely isn’t well-fitted. People who wear glasses can also gauge if their mask is leaky by how much their lenses fog up, Cappa said.
– Some people are more at risk. Switching to an N95 mask may especially be a good idea for more vulnerable people, experts said. This includes the unvaccinated as well as those who are vaccinated but may still be at increased risk, Sax said, such as the elderly and the immunocompromised or people with multiple medical problems. “If they need to be in settings where they’re mixing with unvaccinated people or they don’t know the vaccination status, then upgrading their mask is very reasonable.”
– There are other ways to boost protection. Although N95s are considered by many experts to be the gold standard, the respirators – which can become uncomfortable after prolonged use – may not be appropriate for all vulnerable populations. Take, for instance, children who are not eligible to receive vaccines but old enough to wear masks.
[editor’s note: this post is worth a full read]
Covid could be spread through flatulence, say ministers – The Telegraph
The official advice is to open a window to increase ventilation and slow the spread of Covid, but now there could be an added incentive – the virus may also be spread by flatulence.
Ministers have privately pointed to evidence that Covid could be spread by people breaking wind in confined spaces such as lavatories. One said they had read “credible-looking stuff on it” from other countries, although government scientists are yet to produce a paper on the matter.
The source said there had been evidence of a “genomical-linked tracing connection between two individuals from a [lavatory] cubicle in Australia.”
There were also “well-documented cases of diseases spreading through waste pipes during lockdowns in Hong Kong when the U-bend had dried out”.
The science is not definitive, however, and another minister told The Telegraph that as Covid is “a respiratory disease, transmission and shedding is mostly taking place through the mouth and actually mainly the nose”.
Clothing Chain Fined $3.7M for ‘Potentially Dangerous’ COVID Claims – Newsweek
A clothing company has been hit with a sizable fine for advertising activewear that it claimed could block the spread of COVID-19.
The company, Lorna Jane, is based in Australia and was found by a federal court on Friday to have made “false and misleading representations” about its LJ Shield technology and its supposed ability to halt the spread of COVID. As a penalty, the company will pay a fine of 5 million Australian dollars, or about $3.7 million, the BBC reports.
The judgment follows a complaint filed against Lorna Jane by the Australian Competitions & Consumer Commission (ACCC) last July.
“This was dreadful conduct as it involved making serious claims regarding public health when there was no basis for them,” ACCC chairman Rod Sims said about the ruling.
A second crisis is killing survivors of India’s worst COVID wave – WTOP
Black fungus is India’s second Covid crisis. Before this year, the infection was rare in India, though it was around 80 times more common there than in developed countries.
It’s caused by mucormycetes, a type of fungi, that people are exposed to every day, but when their immune systems have been battered by Covid they become more vulnerable to infection. Unless treated quickly, black fungus can cause permanent damage to the face, loss of vision and death — it has a mortality rate of over 50%.
Cases have surged in India, and a small number of cases have been detected elsewhere — in Nepal, Afghanistan, Egypt and Oman, according to their respective health ministries.
India’s black fungus cases numbers are far higher now than after the country’s first coronavirus wave last September. That may be due to the rapid spread of the Delta or B.1.617.2 variant of the virus.
Diabetes causes elevated blood sugar levels — perfect conditions for a fungus that feeds on sugar. In India, at least 77 million people had diabetes as of 2019, second only to China which had 116 million (the United States had 31 million) according to the International Diabetes Federation — which partly explains why Indian black fungus cases are comparatively high.
The World Health Organization says the prevalence of diabetes is rising more rapidly in low- and middle-income countries than high-income countries. Coupled with a rise in Covid cases, doctors predict black fungus will become more common worldwide.
The Delta variant is another massive headache for the Fed – CNN
The Federal Reserve was already keeping a close eye on rising prices. Now it has to contend with the Delta coronavirus variant.
The highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19 is racing across the globe, causing a shortage of workers in the United Kingdom and heaping stress on the battered global travel industry. Delta now makes up 83% of sequenced samples in the United States.
Fears about potential damage from the variant briefly spooked investors last week, sparking a sharp decline in stock prices on Monday. Investors were already worried about inflation, which could force the US central bank to pull back its support for the economy sooner than expected.
On Wednesday, we’ll hear if concerns about Delta have also infiltrated the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. The Federal Reserve will give its monetary policy update at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET.
… Powell has consistently said that he expects inflation to moderate. But pressure on the central bank is growing, with some economists arguing that the Fed should start tapering its bond purchases later this year in preparation for interest rate hikes that would help get price rises under control.
Delta makes these decisions even harder.
Another surge in coronavirus cases could prevent battered supply chains from getting back to normal, which would in turn keep the pressure up on prices. At the same time, Delta could knock some wind out of the recovery, leading to lower demand and reducing pressure on prices, too.
COVID-19 surge could go on for months – USA Today
New projections released by a COVID-19 research consortium forecast the current surge of cases lasting through the fall and peaking in mid-October, accelerated in part by the rapid spread of the delta variant.
Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist from the University of North Carolina who helps run the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, told NPR in the most likely scenario, of the four scenarios included in the ensemble projection, only 70% of eligible U.S. residents get vaccinated and the delta variant becomes 60% more transmissible. Lessler said this trajectory would climax with approximately 60,000 COVID-19 cases and 850 deaths each day in mid-October.
Johns Hopkins University data shows cases are rising across the nation, and health experts have repeatedly warned regions with low vaccination rates are particularly vulnerable to delta.
“What’s going on in the country with the virus is matching our most pessimistic scenarios,” Lessler said. “We might be seeing synergistic effects of people becoming less cautious in addition to the impacts of the delta variant.”
However, Lessler also said “there’s a lot of uncertainty in these projections,” and outcomes can be influenced by factors such as changing vaccination rates and the reinstatement of public health measures in communities.
Coronavirus in Israel: Number of serious patients nears 100 – The Jerusalem Post
Some 97 coronavirus patients were in serious condition as of Sunday morning, about 30% more than a week earlier.
While the proportion of patients developing a serious form of the disease has been relatively limited so far, compared to the spike of new cases that the country has registered in the past few weeks, some health officials are expressing concern about the increase.
… Some 966 new virus carriers were identified on Saturday, a number significantly lower than the 1,433 from the previous day, but with only 54,000 tests processed (1.8%) compared to 75,000 (1.9%). In the first half of June, Israel had some 20 new cases a day.
Opening the government meeting on Sunday, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett once again invited Israelis who are eligible for a vaccine and who are not inoculated yet – over a million people – to go and get jabbed.
“The scientific facts are clear: Those who get vaccinated get infected less; those who get vaccinated are less contagious,” he said. “If you don’t get vaccinated, you put yourself and your loved ones in danger, especially the elderly.”
Currently, a little over half of the new cases were fully vaccinated, which health experts believe helps explain why the increase in serious morbidity has remained limited – since such virus carriers are significantly less likely to develop a serious form of the disease.
Two-thirds of patients in serious conditions were also fully vaccinated – a rate compatible with the data showing that the vaccine is over 90% effective in preventing severe symptoms [wtf ???>.
[editor’s note: also read Israel to Monitor COVID Quarantine via Phone App as Serious Cases Hit Record]
Covid cost to last for ‘decades’ – and is UK a variant breeding ground? – BBC
The costs of coronavirus will be met by taxpayers “for decades”, MPs have said, adding that an inquiry into the pandemic can not come soon enough. The Public Accounts Committee said No 10’s response to the crisis had exposed UK taxpayers to “significant financial risks”. They also criticised government spending on unusable protective kit. The Department of Health said there were “processes” to ensure spending gives taxpayers value for money.
… Are we in the danger zone for creating new variants that could weaken the ability of vaccines to shield us from Covid? And does it matter? Scientists have warned that the UK has created the perfect conditions by relaxing restrictions – which could see cases reaching 100,000 a day this summer – while large numbers of people don’t have protection from both doses of the vaccine. So far, the problematic variants have been those that spread significantly faster. The Delta variant, which was first identified in India, may spread twice as fast as the original form of the virus that emerged in China. But speed isn’t the only useful trait a coronavirus can acquire.
Fears for Covid vaccine drive if second doses clash with boosters – The Guardian
Health experts have warned the government that it needs to increase efforts to ensure more young adults are vaccinated against Covid-19 – as a matter of urgency.
They fear the current low take-up of jabs among 18- to 25-year-olds could lead to a pile-up of vaccine campaigns in September, when other groups are scheduled to get booster injections and also to be inoculated against influenza. In addition, they argue that vaccines also have a crucial role to play in protecting young adults against long Covid, which is now recognised as a serious problem associated with the disease.
At present, less than 60% of young people have been given a first dose of vaccine and, because they will then have to wait for eight weeks for a second dose, newly inoculated individuals will only be ready for their second jab in September, when a booster campaign of third jabs for older people may be launched, along with the flu programme.
“The issue of vaccine take-up with young adults is a real concern. We need to get higher uptake in the 18- to 25-year-old age group to give us the high levels of immunity that we need as we move into autumn and winter,” said Doug Brown, chief executive of the British Society for Immunology.
“The government needs to redouble efforts to engage younger people,” he added. “And they need to do that in ways that are more likely to influence them – for example, by using social media.”
We may finally know why the delta variant of coronavirus is so infectious – LiveScience
People infected with the delta variant of the novel coronavirus may be carrying more than a thousand times more virus particles and may test positive two days earlier than those infected with the original SARS-CoV-2, according to an early new study. The study has not been peer reviewed and looked at only a small number of cases in China, but if the results can be confirmed, they may explain, at least in part, why the delta variant is so much more infectious.
The delta variant has now spread to more than 100 countries and currently makes up 83% of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S., with particularly high case numbers in areas with low vaccination rates, Live Science previously reported. This variant is thought to be 60% more transmissible than the previous dominant strain, and twice as infectious as the original strain of SARS-CoV-2.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The swimmer Chase Kalisz became the first American to win a gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics.
Jon Rahm tests positive for COVID-19 again, withdraws from Tokyo Olympics
In Europe, France takes the lead in making life unpleasant for the unvaccinated.
Australian Police Search for Thousands of Anti-Lockdown Protesters
6 Team USA athletes have dropped out due to Covid
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
One of the hurdles to vaccination efforts has been the spread of misinformation. An osteopathic physician in Florida spreads more coronavirus misinformation online than anyone, researchers say. He makes millions doing it.
Vaccines remain effective against the worst outcomes of Covid-19, including from the highly contagious Delta variant. But Biden administration health officials increasingly think people who are 65 and older or who have compromised immune systems will need booster shots.
With about only half of the population fully vaccinated, the country is facing what federal health officials have called a “pivotal point” in the pandemic. Some Americans who have been hesitant to roll up their sleeves for a shot — not because they oppose vaccinations, but because they are reluctant, anxious or procrastinators — are finally doing so.
Some parents are being asked to pick up their campers as summer camps struggle to reopen amid labor shortages and without the international seasonal workers. Some camp directors complain that hired staff members are failing to show up or leaving their jobs without notice. And some counselors say that they are underpaid and stretched thinner than in past years. A few camps have even been forced to close.
Civil Rights Group Challenges ‘Flawed’ Vaccine Mandate at George Mason University
Things Are So Bad In California That Farmers Are Employing “Water Witches”
‘Patience has worn thin’: Frustration mounts over vaccine holdouts
Alabama’s governor blames ‘the unvaccinated folks’ for a steep rise in cases.
N.F.L. teams face stiff penalties for unvaccinated players and personnel.
Florida, Iowa and South Dakota Scale Back COVID-19 Reporting As Cases Surge
GOP Maine Lawmaker Who Dismissed Vaccines, Masks Appears to Have COVID
Missouri AG Says He’ll Sue to Stop New Mask Mandate as Delta Variant Surges
Michael Flynn Criticizes Ron DeSantis, Sean Hannity for COVID Vaccine Push
Woman in Hospital for a Month With COVID Has Nearly $1M in Medical Bills
Louisiana Gov. Bel Edwards is calling for mask-wearing to resume indoors for vaccinated and unvaccinated people as more than 1,000 in the state are hospitalized with COVID. The governor said Louisiana has the highest rate of new cases per capita of any state, but did not say he would implement a mask mandate or new restrictions.
Common respiratory viruses are making a comeback, and a particularly severe flu season could be on the horizon, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Friday.
Many states, cities and towns across America are now slow to spend emergency funds allocated to them from the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, reflecting an unexpected reality: many states rebounded faster than expected.
Covid-19 hospitalizations in Los Angeles County more than doubled in 2 weeks
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
Surprising Rise In Initial Jobless Claims: Auto Maker Cuts, Decline In Demand For COVID-Era Products
Seizing The Opportunity For A Pro-Growth, Post-Pandemic World
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 25July 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 25July 2021
What Would The Ancient Greeks Think Of An Olympics With No Fans?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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