Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 12.1 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 27.0 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 4,690
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 86
- How Many Have Actually Died From the COVID Shots?
- DEPOPULATION ALERT: Shocking new study reveals covid vaccine TERMINATES 4 out of 5 pregnancies via “spontaneous abortions”
- Studies show vaccines work even as tiny fraction of vaccinated [or unvaccinated] people die of COVID-19
- Rising COVID-19 cases in California highlight risks of delta variant, as WHO head warns world in dangerous period of pandemic
- Here’s why the U.S. daily death toll appeared to be a negative number yesterday
- Epsilon variant mutations contribute to COVID immune evasion
- Britain as a test case: Can its largely vaccinated adult population reopen despite Delta?
- Deaths Drop, but COVID-19 Cases Rise 10% Over Last Week
- Spread of the Delta variant may make it even harder to reach herd immunity
- Headlines this past week show potential therapies in the treatment of COVID:
- What role did the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant play in India’s devastating second wave?
- No antibodies against Delta variant in 16% samples after two doses of Covishield
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Happy 4th of July. Today Econintersect published two summary posts for headlines over the past week:
What role did the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant play in India’s devastating second wave? – News-Medical
India had a shockingly large second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2021. In addition to the spread of the virus into the hinterlands, largely unserved by large hospitals with intensive care facilities, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) appears to have acquired new characteristics that contributed largely to its rapid and devastating spread across the country.
A detailed report, available on the preprint server medRxiv*, describes the various facets of the second wave that set it apart from the first. The report also contains the findings of an extended SIR model that explored the potential effects of intervention at various time points in the second wave.
We argue that enhanced genomic surveillance along with constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission is critical for pandemic responsiveness,” write the report’s authors.
… In February 2021, however, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh and Punjab noted a sharp increase in cases, and the reproduction number for the whole country went above 1, indicating a burgeoning pandemic on the fourteenth of the same month. No national-level lockdown was mandated until April 14.
By this time, India had undergone a trial by fire, with acute oxygen shortages, no hospital beds, and deaths exceeding the capacity of the system to decently dispose of the corpses. Though the official toll is horrifying enough, many sources suggest that it is a gross undercount, and the actual numbers may never be known.
Multiple circulating variants
At the same time, the emergence of multiple variants became obvious, just as in the world over the winter of 2020. The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genome Sequencing Consortia (INSACOG) was set up in December 2020, though its initial efforts were hampered by a lack of reagents and equipment.
However, early sequencing reflected the presence of global variants of concern, namely, B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 (the alpha, beta and gamma VOCs, respectively). In the period between December 2020 and February 2021, the delta and kappa variants (B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.1, respectively) comprised 60% of sequences from Maharashtra, with the former being labeled a VOC by the WHO in India.
Other important variants include the B.1.36 lineage, making up 44% of cases in Bengaluru, the information technology hub in Karnataka. The alpha variant made up 80% of Punjab cases, while B.1.618 is coming to the fore in West Bengal.
Higher case and death numbers in second wave
The ratio of standardized daily case rates in every state and union territory in India shows a value above 1, and a median value of 3.8, indicating that wave 2 hit the country much harder than wave 1. The highest ratios were in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, followed by Punjab and Gujarat.
When it comes to the ratio of standardized death rates, the same trend prevails, with only two states reporting a ratio below 1, while the death rates were significantly higher in the second wave for all other regions – the median ratio being 3.2. However, the worst-hit states have a ratio of 6.6 to 8.4.
[editor’s note: good summary post of what happened in India which deserves a full read]
The following headlines this past week show potential therapies in the treatment of COVID:
Mustard seed, wall rocket and turmeric extracts show potential against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro
Anti-malarial drug shows promise in the battle against COVID-19
Grapevine leaf extract inhibits SARS-CoV-2 and HSV-1 replication in the lab
Study explores lectins from plants, fungi, algae and cyanobacteria as pan-coronavirus inhibitors
The use of flavonoids as antiviral agents against SARS-CoV-2
Zinc-embedded polyamides inactivate SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A
Solar irradiation inactivates SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses, finds study
Study suggests vitamin B12 as a SARS-CoV-2 antiviral
Mefloquine: A promising drug ‘soldier’ in the battle against COVID-19
Large-scale drug analysis reveals potential new COVID-19 antivirals
Deaths Drop, but COVID-19 Cases Rise 10% Over Last Week – Medscape
After a steady period of decline, the daily average of new COVID-19 cases has started ticking upward, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, said Thursday at a White House news briefing.
She said the CDC reported 14,875 new COVID cases on Wednesday and that the 7-day average is around 12,600 cases per day. That’s a 95% decrease in daily cases from the US peak in early January, she said, but it’s a 10% increase over a week ago.
“We continue to see overall low numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths,” she said. “However, looking state by state and county by county, communities where people remain unvaccinated are communities that remain vulnerable. This is all true as we monitor the continued spread of the hyper-transmissible Delta variant.”
She said about a quarter of sequenced US cases are the Delta variant. It may well become the dominant variant in coming weeks, and more Delta cases are expected to turn up in areas with low vaccination rates, such as the 1000 counties that have a vaccination rate of below 30%.
A new report from the United Kingdom found that 117 people have died from the delta variant of the coronavirus, including 50 people who were fully vaccinated.
The deaths are just a tiny fraction of the 92,029 cases of the variant that have been documented in the United Kingdom, and should not cause alarm about vaccines.
In fact, a report by The Wall Street Journal noted that the new evidence provides encouraging signs that the COVID-19 vaccine works.
While the delta variant has become the fastest spreading coronavirus strain in the United Kingdom — something that is also happening in the United States — the study shows that people who are fully vaccinated are much less likely to get it. If they do get it, they are much less likely to become very sick or require hospitalization.
At the same time, the study underscores that the elderly can still be susceptible to the coronavirus and specifically the delta variant.
Of the total number of deaths associated with the delta variant in the U.K. study, the majority of those — 109 people — were over the age of 50. Only eight people under the age of 50 had died from the variant.
The 50 deaths from the delta variant in the vaccinated group were all at least 50 years old, according to the U.K. data.
How Many Have Actually Died From the COVID Shots? – Mercola
[editor’s note: I have potential accuracy issues with portions of this article. However, the following section of the article reflects my data gathering concerns which make most of our knowledge about COVID suspect]
As noted by [Dr. Vladimir} Zelenko, underreporting is part of the problem we’re facing. The real number of side effects is impossible to determine, given the fact that the Food and Drug Administration didn’t insist on a robust post-vaccination data collection system, but it’s most certainly higher than what VAERS is listing.
“If you look at the VAERS [vaccine adverse event reporting system], which in my opinion is a piece of garbage … as of today, let’s say says there’s 6,000 deaths associated with taking the vaccine. Well, we need to understand what that actually means,” Zelenko says.
“If you look at the 2009 Harvard study on the VAERS system, they said only 1% of events are actually reported. So, OK … whatever the number is, it’s not 6,000. Maybe only 10% are being reported. I don’t know. But definitely it’s being underreported.
And then there’s two [additional] big problems. There’s evidence coming out that VAERS reports that have been filed are being erased off the server, No. 1. No. 2, I personally know of 2,000 cases of deaths associated with the vaccine, and the doctor and/or family members that tried to file a VAERS report, their reports were rejected due to some technicality.
The fact that they all couldn’t make a report, that raises my eyebrows. What percentage of the information are we actually seeing? The answer is, I estimate, there are already around 200,000 dead Americans, directly related to the vaccinations.”
To get to that number, Zelenko assumes only 10%5 of adverse effects are reported. Studies have indicated it could be as low as 1%.6,7 That gives us a death toll of about 60,000, to which he adds another 140,000 given the fact that reports are being scrubbed and refused.
“The point is that it should definitely raise eyebrows and have the public start screaming and saying, ‘We want to know the truth. We want to know the accurate numbers. Stop suppressing the truth … I want to be able to make an informed choice whether or not I want to take this injection.’ And that’s not being given to the people.
My problem is not with the vaccine. My problem is with the government, governing bodies and certain people that are obstructing the flow of life saving information and suppressing the truth from people, and then using coercion to force people to take this vaccine. That’s the nefarious part.
The suppression is so blatant and so overt that doctors with impeccable credentials are being deplatformed for just voicing an opinion. And then you couple that together with proven prehospital treatment approaches and protocols that have been proven to reduce hospitalization and death by 85%, and that information is being suppressed.
So here you have a dual censorship where the positive, hopeful, life-saving information is being suppressed and the dangerous outcomes of the vaccination approach is being suppressed. It’s a perfect setup for genocide.”
DEPOPULATION ALERT: Shocking new study reveals covid vaccine TERMINATES 4 out of 5 pregnancies via “spontaneous abortions” – Natural News
[editor’s note: I find this post way off-base. The NIH study does not support the headline that 4 out of 5 pregnancies end in spontaneous abortions. So you may be asking yourself why would I add this article to my headlines? Well, after reading the study, and playing with the data in the tables – I conclude that something was wrong with the study – and the article completely misses this. The study was on 35,691 v-safe participants and yet the study was limited to only those who would have reached term within the study period (827 people) – and no mention of pregnancy loss in the rest of the 34,000+ pregnant women which would have been known. Was this done on purpose to obfuscate potential bad data?>
A shocking new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine reveals that when pregnant women are given covid vaccinations during their first or second trimesters, they suffer an 82% spontaneous abortion rate, killing 4 out of 5 unborn babies.
This stunning finding, explained below, is self-evident from the data published in a new study entitled, “Preliminary Findings of mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine Safety in Pregnant Persons.” Just as disturbing as the data is the fact that the study authors apparently sought to deliberately obfuscate the truth about vaccines causing spontaneous abortions by obfuscating numbers in their own calculations.
Originally brought to our attention by a Life Site News article, we checked with our own science contacts to review the data and double check all the math. In doing so, we were able to confirm two things:
- Yes, the study shows an 82% rate of spontaneous abortions in expectant mothers given covid vaccines during their first or second trimesters.
- Yes, the study authors either deliberately sought to hide this fact with dishonest obfuscation (explained below) or they are incompetent and made a glaring error that brings into question their credibility.
In other words, this study was almost certainly a cover-up to try to claim vaccinating pregnant women is perfectly safe. But the study data actually show quite the oppose.
No antibodies against Delta variant in 16% samples after two doses of Covishield: Study – India Today
A new study claims that neutralising antibodies against the Delta variant (B1.617.2) of Covid-19 were not found in 16.1 per cent samples from those who had been administered both doses of the Covishield vaccine. Further, neutralising antibodies were not observed in 58.1 per cent of serum samples from those who had been given only one shot of Covishield.
The study, which has been conducted by researchers from the Indian Council of Medical Research, is yet to be peer reviewed.
Dr T Jacob John, former head of the department of microbiology at Christian Medical College in Vellore was quoted in the Hindustan Times, “Not observed is not equivalent to not present. The levels of neutralising antibodies could be significantly low such that it did not get detected, but it may still be there and protect the person against infection and severe disease. Also, there would be some cell mediated protective immunity as well that can protect the individual.”
“Assuming that the serum used for the study was from healthy individuals, the proportion of individuals with unobserved levels of neutralising antibodies will be higher among those who are old, comorbid or have chronic diseases since their immune response is lower. What this means is that men (women produce higher levels of antibodies) over the age of 65 years, those with diabetes, hypertension, chronic heart, lung, kidney diseases, or who are undergoing treatment for cancer should be given a third dose,” Dr John explained.
Spread of the Delta variant may make it even harder to reach herd immunity, expert says – CNN
With so many areas in the United States witnessing low vaccination rates, the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus will make it that much harder for the country to reach herd immunity, a top expert says.
“We don’t exactly know what the herd immunity percentage would be for Covid-19. It would be different for the Delta variant, and higher, because it is more transmissible,” Dr. Rachel Levine, assistant secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services, told CNN’s Ana Cabrera on Friday.
Herd immunity is the point where a virus can no longer infect people because enough people already have it or are vaccinated against it.
Estimates vary on how much of the population needs to have immunity to reach that goal. Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said herd immunity might be reached if 70-85% of people are immune.
There is good news, per Levine, who said, “People who are vaccinated are protected against this Delta variant. And they’re extremely unlikely to get sick and it’s virtually impossible for them to require hospitalizations.”
As for those who remain unvaccinated, “The Delta variant poses a threat,” Levine said.
Rising COVID-19 cases in California highlight risks of delta variant, as WHO head warns world in dangerous period of pandemic – MarketWatch
A 17% increase in cases of the coronavirus-borne illness COVID-19 in California in the past 14 days has increased concerns about the highly infectious delta variant of the virus, which is expected to become the dominant strain in the U.S. over time, as it has in many other places.
California is averaging almost 1,000 cases a day, and Los Angeles County has already recommended that residents resume wearing face masks indoors after finding that roughly half the new cases were caused by the delta variant, the Associated Press reported.
This variant, which was first identified in India in December, now makes up nearly half of COVID-19 cases in some regions and one-quarter of all cases in the U.S., based on virus samples that have been sequenced, according to remarks made Thursday by Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Most of the new infections are in unvaccinated people, underscoring the protection offered by the vaccines that have won emergency use authorization in the U.S. The Biden White House has pushed hard with a goal of getting at least one dose into the arms of 70% of the adult population by July 4.
Epsilon variant mutations contribute to COVID immune evasion – UW Medicine
Three mutations in the Epsilon coronavirus Spike protein dampen the neutralizing potency of antibodies induced by current vaccines or past COVID infections.
The mutations give this coronavirus variant of concern a means to totally evade specific monoclonal antibodies used in clinics and reduces the effectiveness of antibodies from the plasma of vaccinated people.
To better understand the exact immune escape strategies at work here, the scientists visualized this variant’s infection machinery to see what is different from the original configuration of the pandemic coronavirus, and what the implications of these changes are.
The international project was led by David Veesler’s lab in the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Washington in Seattle and by Luca Piccoli and Davide Corti of Vir Biotechnology.
For several years, the Veesler lab and its collaborators have been exploring the molecular conformation and infection mechanics of SARS-like coronaviruses. They also examine how antibodies attempt to block infection mechanisms, and how variants come up with new dodges.
Their latest data shows that the Epsilon variant “relies on an indirect and unusual neutralization-escape strategy,” according to the researchers.
Their findings are published as a First Release paper in the latest edition of Science. Read the paper.
Britain as a test case: Can its largely vaccinated adult population reopen despite Delta? – New York Times
A week from now, more than 60,000 soccer fans will pack Wembley Stadium in London for the European Championship final. British travelers with two vaccine shots will soon be welcomed back to Germany, which had banned them. And Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was on track to lift most remaining coronavirus restrictions on July 19 — or, as the British news media has dubbed it, “Freedom Day.”
All this in a country that, despite having a population that is almost 50 percent fully vaccinated, reported 27,125 new cases of the virus on Friday, a 52 percent jump from just a week earlier.
Britain’s determination to reopen amid that steep rise in cases amounts to a bold experiment, one that will be closely watched in the United States and across Europe: Can a country with a largely vaccinated adult population learn to live with the coronavirus?
“The world is watching the U.K. to see what living with Covid and high vaccine uptake looks like,” said Devi Sridhar, head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh. “The next few weeks will reveal if they’ve gambled correctly, or we end up having another wave of high hospitalizations.”
Britain has gone from one of the longest stretches under lockdown of any advanced economy to one of the swiftest vaccine rollouts and now, to a reopening. Scientists say it is time to test whether the nation can reach a coveted goal: population immunity through inoculation rather than infection.
There are some promising early signs. Britain’s recent rise in cases, most of which are also attributed to the highly transmissible Delta variant, has yet to be followed by a commensurate rise in hospital admissions or deaths.
That could be because of more testing or a greater number of cases among younger, unvaccinated people. But some scientists say it also suggests that the widespread deployment of vaccines — particularly among the most vulnerable populations — has weakened the link between infection and serious illness.
Here’s why the U.S. daily death toll appeared to be a negative number. – New York Times
[editor’s note: Yesterday readers may have noted a peculiar data point on deaths which said there was a “data anomaly”]
The negative death toll came about because officials in Santa Clara County, Calif., conducted a review of the county’s death records and revised its tally of roughly 2,200 deaths tied to the coronavirus at the end of June down to just under 1,700.
Santa Clara County officials attributed the decrease to a change in the county’s criteria for deaths being linked to the virus. Previously, the county included any resident who died while infected with the virus; now, in keeping with state guidance, it includes only those for whom Covid-19 was identified, or not ruled out, as a cause of death.
There were 376 new reported deaths recorded for Friday in the United States, but the roughly 500 subtracted by Santa Clara’s new count yielded a negative number for the country’s daily death count.
Revisions like Santa Clara’s are routine. Last month, officials in Alameda County, Calif., conducted a similar review of records and revised their total death toll downward by about 400. And in other counties, health departments regularly add or subtract deaths as more information about a patient’s residence or the circumstances of their death becomes available. Many experts also say they believe the national total to be an undercount given data on excess deaths, the number of deaths beyond what would be expected based on historical trends.
As counties continue to revisit their death totals, decreases in the national death count may reappear if the number of newly reported deaths in the United States continues to decline.
As of Friday, public health officials across the United States had identified more than 604,600 coronavirus deaths since the start of the pandemic, according to a New York Times database — a tally that remains painful regardless of the small corrections made as officials review and adjust their records.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Public Health England: AstraZeneca COVID Shot 94% Protective Against Death in Over 65s
Masks will become personal choice
Iran’s president warns of a potential fifth wave as the Delta variant spreads.
Indian police investigate whether scammers gave thousands of shots of salt water instead of vaccine.
Ugandans Face 2 Months’ Imprisonment for Violating COVID Laws
Europe in vaccination race against COVID-19’s delta variant
Mexico: Coronavirus stoplight risk map remains unchanged
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
$600 Stimulus Checks: Two-Thirds of Californians to Receive Direct Payments
Petitions for $2,000 Monthly Stimulus Checks Surpass 2.8 Million Signatures
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
What Could Happen If We Keep Washing Our Hands?
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 04July 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 04July 2021
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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