Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 9.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 16.3 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 16,517
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 296
- Is there a link between circadian rhythms and COVID-19 severity?
- CDC Warns Doctors About a Mystery Bacterial Outbreak With No Clear Origin
- A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30
- Studies show vaccines work even as tiny fraction of vaccinated people die of COVID-19
- Experts question if WHO should lead pandemic origins probe
- Delta variant ignites new mask debate
- CDC: Covid cases up 10 percent as ‘hypertransmissible’ delta variant spreads
- Effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine and ChAdOx1 adenovirus vector vaccine on mortality following COVID-19
- COVID Delta Variant Is Spreading Fastest in These U.S. States
- House Lawmakers Eager to Boost Vaccine Uptake, Quash Hesitancy
- Plus many more headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
House Lawmakers Eager to Boost Vaccine Uptake, Quash Hesitancy – MedPage
Implementing so-called “regret lotteries,” launching school vaccination clinics, and targeting “microherds” were among the strategies proposed by expert witnesses to address vaccine hesitancy, during a hearing of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis on Thursday.
“Nearly all of the more than 8,500 Americans who died from COVID-19 last month were unvaccinated,” said Chairman James Clyburn (D-S.C).
Too many Americans remain vulnerable to the coronavirus due to vaccine hesitancy, which not only allows the virus to spread, but increases the risk of vaccine-resistant variants. Up to one in five American adults say they are “strongly opposed” to getting a COVID vaccine, he noted. (Currently, about two-thirds of U.S. adults have received at least one shot, according to the CDC.)
Experts question if WHO should lead pandemic origins probe – AP
As the World Health Organization draws up plans for the next phase of its probe of how the coronavirus pandemic started, an increasing number of scientists say the U.N. agency it isn’t up to the task and shouldn’t be the one to investigate.
Numerous experts, some with strong ties to WHO, say that political tensions between the U.S. and China make it impossible for an investigation by the agency to find credible answers.
They say what’s needed is a broad, independent analysis closer to what happened in the aftermath of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster.
The first part of a joint WHO-China study of how COVID-19 started concluded in March that the virus probably jumped to humans from animals and that a lab leak was “extremely unlikely.” The next phase might try to examine the first human cases in more detail or pinpoint the animals responsible — possibly bats, perhaps by way of some intermediate creature.
But the idea that the pandemic somehow started in a laboratory — and perhaps involved an engineered virus — has gained traction recently, with President Joe Biden ordering a review of U.S. intelligence within 90 days to assess the possibility.
Earlier this month, WHO’s emergencies chief, Dr. Michael Ryan, said that the agency was working out the final details of the next phase of its probe and that because WHO works “by persuasion,” it lacks the power to compel China to cooperate.
Some said that is precisely why a WHO-led examination is doomed to fail.
“We will never find the origins relying on the World Health Organization,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the WHO Collaborating Center on Public Health Law and Human Rights at Georgetown University. “For a year and a half, they have been stonewalled by China, and it’s very clear they won’t get to the bottom of it.”
CDC Warns Doctors About a Mystery Bacterial Outbreak With No Clear Origin – Gizmodo
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is warning doctors about a strange cluster of illness in three states caused by a rarely seen bacteria in the U.S., one that’s killed at least one person and hospitalized two others so far. The illness, called melioidosis, can be highly fatal but isn’t normally considered contagious between people. Officials don’t know how these victims contracted the bacteria, though the cases do seem to be connected.
Since March 2021, the CDC announced in a health alert on Wednesday, at least three people in three non-adjacent states (Kansas, Texas, and Minnesota) have contracted melioidosis. The first victim, a man with preexisting lung and liver issues, died 10 days into his hospitalization. The other two, a woman and child, were identified in May. And while one patient has since been discharged to a transitional care unit, the other remains hospitalized.
“The CDC is working with state health officials in Kansas, Texas, and Minnesota to investigate three cases, including one death, of a rare, but serious bacterial infection called melioidosis,” a CDC representative told Gizmodo in an email.
Melioidosis, also called Whitmore’s disease, is caused by the rod-shaped bacteria Burkholderia pseudomallei and can affect many species of animals and humans. Its symptoms are non-specific, resembling many other diseases, and depend on where the infection is located in the body. Most infections cause fever, for instance, but in the respiratory tract it may cause cough, chest pain, and reduced appetite. It also can spread to the bloodstream, where it’s capable of causing life-threatening sepsis, and can even reach the brain or nervous system. Because it’s hard to diagnose melioidosis (some automated tests can even mistake the bacteria for another species, which happened in the first case), appropriate treatment is often delayed. But even with aggressive antibiotics given through IV, it’s still regularly fatal, killing between 10% to over 40% of its victims once symptoms begin. It can also lay dormant in the body, not causing illness until a person’s health declines for other reasons.
CDC: Covid cases up 10 percent as ‘hypertransmissible’ delta variant spreads – NBC
The number of Covid-19 cases in the United States rose 10 percent this week as the highly contagious delta variant gained further ground, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.
The country’s lagging vaccination rate coupled with the “hypertransmissible delta variant,” first detected in India, could account for the increase, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House briefing.
The delta variant is about 60 percent more transmissible than current dominant strain in the U.S., the alpha variant. That variant, first detected in the United Kingdom, was more contagious than the original virus.
The delta variant now accounts for a quarter of all new cases, and has been detected in all 50 states. Its rapid spread is sure to make it the dominant U.S. strain within the coming weeks, she said.
The seven-day average of new cases this week was about 12,600 cases, up 10 percent compared to last week’s average, Walensky said.
“We don’t want to alarm people,” she told NBC News after the briefing, “but we follow these numbers really, really carefully.”
COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections Reported to CDC – CDC
A total of 10,262 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections had been reported from 46 U.S. states and territories as of April 30, 2021. Among these cases, 6,446 (63%) occurred in females, and the median patient age was 58 years (interquartile range = 40-74 years). Based on preliminary data, 2,725 (27%) vaccine breakthrough infections were asymptomatic, 995 (10%) patients were known to be hospitalized, and 160 (2%) patients died. Among the 995 hospitalized patients, 289 (29%) were asymptomatic or hospitalized for a reason unrelated to COVID-19. The median age of patients who died was 82 years (interquartile range = 71-89 years); 28 (18%) decedents were asymptomatic or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19. Sequence data were available from 555 (5%) reported cases, 356 (64%) of which were identified as SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern,§ including B.1.1.7 (199; 56%), B.1.429 (88; 25%), B.1.427 (28; 8%), P.1 (28; 8%), and B.1.351 (13; 4%).
As of April 30, 2021, approximately 101 million persons in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.¶ However, during the surveillance period, SARS-CoV-2 transmission continued at high levels in many parts of the country, with approximately 355,000 COVID-19 cases reported nationally during the week of April 24-30, 2021.** Even though FDA-authorized vaccines are highly effective, breakthrough cases are expected, especially before population immunity reaches sufficient levels to further decrease transmission. However, vaccine breakthrough infections occur in only a small fraction of all vaccinated persons and account for a small percentage of all COVID-19 cases (5–8). The number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths that will be prevented among vaccinated persons will far exceed the number of vaccine breakthrough cases. To date, the age and sex distribution of reported vaccine breakthrough infections reflects the fully vaccinated U.S. population.†† The proportion of reported vaccine breakthrough infections attributed to variants of concern has also been similar to the proportion of these variants circulating throughout the United States. During March 28-April 10, 2021, the aforementioned variants of concern accounted for 70% of the weighted estimates of SARS-CoV-2 lineages submitted to CDC’s national genomic surveillance.§§
We found that confirmed cases of COVID-19 who had been vaccinated with either a single dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or a single dose of ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) had significantly reduced risk of dying compared to unvaccinated cases. The point estimates showed greater protection with ChAdOx1, though confidence intervals overlapped suggesting little difference between the two vaccines. Combined with recent estimates of protection against symptomatic disease in the same age group, these findings suggest that a single dose of either vaccine is approximately 80% effective at preventing mortality, and two doses of BNT162b2 is approximately 97% effective at preventing mortality in older adults.
Delta variant ignites new mask debate – The Hill
Health officials are grappling with how to prevent potential COVID-19 outbreaks from the delta variant that is spreading rapidly across the U.S.
Concern over the highly transmissible delta strain prompted Los Angeles County this week to recommend that all people wear masks indoors, even if they’re vaccinated. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also encouraged fully vaccinated people to continue using masks.
But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has not signaled any plans to revise its mask guidance, with Biden administration officials and some experts say that fully vaccinated Americans are safe from all existing COVID-19 variants.
“If you have been vaccinated, the message we’re conveying is you’re safe,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Wednesday. “Vaccines are effective, and that is something we want to be very clear with the public about.”
Still, the move by officials in Los Angeles County raises the prospect that mask recommendations and even mandates could make a return to certain parts of the country.
The CDC projected the delta variant made up more than a quarter of cases in the U.S. in the most recent two-week period, ending June 19 — a jump from 10 percent the previous two weeks.
… Recent studies have found that COVID-19 vaccines are effective against the strain. Both doses of Pfizer-BioNTech were found to be 88 percent effective against symptomatic disease.
There is “less data” on how Johnson & Johnson performs, Walensky said Wednesday, but “right now we have no information to suggest that you need a second shot after J&J, even with the delta variant.”
Is there a link between circadian rhythms and COVID-19 severity? – News-Medical
Previous studies have already suggested that the time of day in which someone catches coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can play a critical role in the progression of this disease. This dynamic has also been reported with other viral pathogens, including parainfluenza type 3, respiratory syncytial, and influenza viruses.
Recently, scientists at the Aix-Marseille University in France have analyzed the implications of circadian rhythms (CRs) in the infection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is the virus responsible for COVID-19, on isolated human monocytes, which are critical cells in COVID-19, in healthy individuals. The study, which was published in Microbial Pathogenesis, showed that the time of day of SARS-CoV-2 infection could impact the severity of the viral infection and the host immune response.
Circadian rhythms and the immune system
The body’s CR regulates numerous physiological processes throughout the day. The rhythmic regulation of CRs is dependent upon both central and peripheral oscillators that are managed by BMAL1, which is the main clock gene.
In addition to regulating physiological processes each day, CRs also play a role in determining the individual’s susceptibility to certain viral infections. To this end, recent studies have shown that the time of day of an infection can be critical for the progression of disease with other viruses. The team thus aimed to determine the role of the CRs on COVID-19 progression.
Conclusion
“Our data showed for the first time that entry and multiplication of SARS-CoV-2 in human monocytes varies with the time of day. This finding is reminiscent of what has been previously reported with herpes and influenza virus in murine models of infection.”
Taken together, the findings discussed here suggest that SARS-CoV-2 likely manipulates the CR for its own gain. Therefore, CR represents a potential therapeutic target for healthcare providers in managing the progression of COVID-19.
This study also highlights that the timing of treatment administration to COVID-19 patients is crucial in preventing disease progression. These treatments include passive immunization, cytokines, anti-cytokine antibody or corticoids. All these drug candidates affect the immune response that may oscillate during the day and their administration according to the CR of SARS-CoV-2.
Lottery-based incentives do not increase COVID-19 vaccination rates – EurekAlert
Would you be more willing to get vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus if you could participate in a lottery for cash and prizes? The answer was surprisingly no, according to Boston University School of Medicine (BUSM) researchers who found that Ohio’s “Vax-a-Million” lottery-based incentive system, intended to increase COVID-19 vaccination rates, was not associated with an increase in COVD-19 vaccinations.
Prior reports in the media had suggested that the Ohio lottery increased COVID-19 vaccinations, leading other states to use COVID-19 vaccine incentive lotteries in an attempt to increase slowing vaccination rates. “However, prior evaluations of the Ohio vaccine incentive lottery did not account for other changes in COVID-19 vaccination rates in the United States, such as those that may have been due to expansion of vaccination to ages 12-15,” explained corresponding author Allan J. Walkey, MD, MSc, professor of medicine at BUSM.
Using data from the U.S. Centers of Disease Control to evaluate trends in vaccination rates among adults 18 and older, the researchers compared vaccination rates before and after the Ohio lottery versus other states in the U.S. that did not yet have vaccine incentive lottery programs. Vaccination rates in other states served as a “control” for vaccination trends measured in Ohio, allowing the researchers to account for factors besides the Ohio lottery (such expanding vaccine eligibility to adolescents) throughout the country.
“Our results suggest that state-based lotteries are of limited value in increasing vaccine uptake. Therefore, the resources devoted to vaccine lotteries may be more successfully invested in programs that target underlying reasons for vaccine hesitancy and low vaccine uptake,” said Walkey, a physician at Boston Medical Center.
Studies show vaccines work even as tiny fraction of vaccinated people die of COVID-19 – The Hill
A new report from the United Kingdom found that 117 people have died from the delta variant of the coronavirus, including 50 people who were fully vaccinated.
The deaths are just a tiny fraction of the 92,029 cases of the variant that have been documented in the United Kingdom, and should not cause alarm about vaccines.
In fact, a report by The Wall Street Journal noted that the new evidence provides encouraging signs that the COVID-19 vaccine works.
While the delta variant has become the fastest spreading coronavirus strain in the United Kingdom — something that is also happening in the United States — the study shows that people who are fully vaccinated are much less likely to get it. If they do get it, they are much less likely to become very sick or require hospitalization.
At the same time, the study underscores that the elderly can still be susceptible to the coronavirus and specifically the delta variant.
Of the total number of deaths associated with the delta variant, the majority of those – 109 people – were over the age of 50. Only eight people under the age of 50 had died from the variant.
The 50 deaths from the delta variant were all among people at least 50 years old, according to the U.K. data.
COVID Delta Variant Is Spreading Fastest in These U.S. States – Newsweek
As the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 continues to spread in the U.S., a handful of states have been hit harder than most amid fears of a fresh wave of infections over Fourth of July weekend.
The U.S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has analysed data collected from 25 U.S. states over four weeks to June 5, and concluded that the states with the highest proportions of the Delta variant—or B.1.617.2—are Missouri at 29.9 percent, Colorado at 12.2 percent and New Jersey at 10.2 percent.
The CDC data only covers states with at least 300 sequences from collected specimens. This process, genomic sequencing, enables scientists to monitor the coronavirus’ shifts into new variants and how these changes affect its characteristics.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
‘We’re prisoners’: Australia locks out thousands more citizens as virus slip-ups mount
Russia, where vaccine hesitancy is widespread, finds itself in the midst of a surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths
Vision loss has emerged as a key adverse effect of the “black fungus” infection accompanying COVID-19 in India.
Public Health England: AstraZeneca COVID Shot 94% Protective Against Death in Over 65s
WHO calls on countries to recognize all authorized vaccines for travel
South Africa Makes Up Over 30 Percent of COVID Cases Reported on Continent
Japan Could Lose $800M in Olympic Ticket Sales if Games Have no Spectators
Russia Has Over 23K Coronavirus Cases but No Plans for Another Lockdown
Arizona Retreat Bans People Who Had COVID Vaccine
US Army Could Require COVID Vaccinations of All Soldiers by September
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The latest study, published in JAMA’s Cardiology Journal on Tuesday, showed that 23 male soldiers (including 22 who were deemed “previously health”) between the ages of 20 and 51 presented “acute onset of marked chest pain” within four days of receiving their second dose. Patients who sought care for chest pain in the military health-care system following COVID-19 vaccination and were subsequently diagnosed with clinical myocarditis were included in the case study.
The Supreme Court said charities were not obligated to reveal the identities of their major donors.
130 countries signed onto Biden’s proposal for a global minimum corporate tax.
Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine protects against the Delta variant, the company said.
The star sprinter Sha’Carri Richardson, 21, tested positive for marijuana, a result that may bar her from the Olympics.
US hands Bagram Airfield to Afghans after nearly 20 years
The heat-related death toll nears 100 in Washington and Oregon combined.
Historic Northwest heat wave may have killed hundreds
Extreme heat is killing people in Arizona’s mobile homes
Johnson & Johnson announced that its COVID shot produced strong neutralizing antibody activity against the Delta variant (B.1.617.2).
Air concentrations of the carcinogen formaldehyde in certain parts of Houston were discovered at levels 13 times the EPA’s chronic health screening level, according to a Houston Health Department report.
As an “adverse effect” of COVID-19, many pediatric patients with major psychiatric problems spend days in emergency rooms, awaiting admission to psychiatric units.
The D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine has subpoenaed Facebook records related to the social media platform’s handling of misinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic.
St. Louis recommends vaccinated wear masks indoors
CDC Investigating Death of 13-Year-Old That Died After COVID Vaccine
New York Prisons Offer Inmates Barbecues, Conjugal Visits for Vaccination
Gottlieb says Covid risk low for most Americans over Fourth of July weekend
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
25 June 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Modest Declines Continue
May 2021 Headline Manufacturing New Orders Improved
May 2021 Trade Balance Worsens
June 2021 BLS Jobs Situation – Job Gains Excellent
Rail Week Ending 26 June 2021 – Continued Slowing In Intuitive Sectors
Infographic Of The Day: The State Of Small Business Recovery In America
Social Value And Incentives For Vaccine Uptake
Damage To Children’s Education – And Their Health – Could Last A Lifetime
Where The Delta Variant Is Gaining Ground
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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