Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 3.0 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.0 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 6,685
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 126
- Sydney, Australia, begins two-week COVID lockdown due to the Delta Variant
- UK virus cases hit highest since Feb 5 amid ‘grab a jab’ – mostly from the Delta Variant
- Covid-19: ‘Delta variant may breach vaccination shield’
- Deleted gene sequences confirm coronavirus circulated before Wuhan seafood market
- Indian Bar Association sues WHO scientist over Ivermectin
- Inflation looks bad now, but it’s pretty much sticking to the script
- 4 signs that point to a July 21 easing of U.S.-Canada border restrictions
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Econintersect published two summary articles today for coronavirus news over this past week:
Indian Bar Association sues WHO scientist over Ivermectin – Desert Review
The Indian Bar Association (IBA) sued WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan on May 25, accusing her in a 71-point brief of causing the deaths of Indian citizens by misleading them about Ivermectin.
Point 56 states, “That your misleading tweet on May 10, 2021, against the use of Ivermectin had the effect of the State of Tamil Nadu withdrawing Ivermectin from the protocol on May 11, 2021, just a day after the Tamil Nadu government had indicated the same for the treatment of COVID-19 patients.”
https://science.thewire.in/health/tn-revises-protocols-leaves-out-Ivermectin-for-covid-patients/
Advocate Dipali Ojha, lead attorney for the Indian Bar Association, threatened criminal prosecution against Dr. Swaminathan “for each death” caused by her acts of commission and omission. The brief accused Swaminathan of misconduct by using her position as a health authority to further the agenda of special interests to maintain an EUA for the lucrative vaccine industry.
https://indianbarassociation.in/press-releases/
Specific charges included the running of a disinformation campaign against Ivermectin and issuing statements in social and mainstream media to wrongfully influence the public against the use of Ivermectin despite the existence of large amounts of clinical data showing its profound effectiveness in both prevention and treatment of COVID-19.
In particular, the Indian Bar brief referenced the peer-reviewed publications and evidence compiled by the ten-member Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) group and the 65-member British Ivermectin Recommendation Development (BIRD) panel headed by WHO consultant and meta-analysis expert Dr. Tess Lawrie.
The brief cited US Attorney Ralph C. Lorigo’s hospital cases in New York where court orders were required for dying COVID patients to receive the Ivermectin. In multiple instances of such comatose patients, following the court-ordered Ivermectin, the patients recovered. In addition, the Indian Bar Association cited previous articles published in this forum, The Desert Review.
Advocate Ojha accused the WHO and Dr. Swaminathan in Points 60 and 61 as having misled and misguided the Indian people throughout the pandemic from mask wear to exonerating China as to the virus’s origins.
“The world is gradually waking up to your absurd, arbitrary and fallacious approach in presenting concocted facts as ‘scientific approach.’ While the WHO flaunts itself like a ‘know it all,’ it is akin to the vain Emperor in new clothes while the entire world has realized by now, the Emperor has no clothes at all.”
Sydney, Australia, begins two-week COVID lockdown – Yahoo
Sydney, Australia, on Saturday night began a two-week lockdown amid a surge in cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant.
New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said it was “the scariest time that I felt since the pandemic started,” as she announced the lockdown and associated stay-at-home orders for Greater Sydney, the Central Coast, the Blue Mountains and Wollongong.
The new restrictions follow smaller lockdowns in parts of the city that began Friday in an effort to stem an outbreak of the highly contagious variant.
“Everyone in Greater Sydney must stay at home unless it is for an essential reason,” Berejiklian said in a statement outlining the restrictions.
Under the order, which will be in place through at least July 9, residents are only permitted to leave their homes for essential work, education, to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, to seek medical care, outdoor exercise and to shop for food or other essential items. Those who wish to exercise outdoors may only do so in groups of 10 or fewer.
[editor’s note: also read: COVID: New restrictions amid struggle to contain Delta variant]
UK virus cases hit highest since Feb 5 amid ‘grab a jab’ – ABC
The U.K. on Saturday recorded its most new coronavirus infections since early February as the National Health Service ran a “grab a jab” initiative to further drive up vaccination rates.
Government figures showed that another 18,270 people tested positive for the virus across the U.K, the highest daily number since Feb. 5. Over the past week, nearly 100,000 have tested positive, around 50% increase up on the week before. That has raised questions over whether lockdown restrictions will end as planned.
Daily cases have risen fairly sharply over the past few weeks as a result of the delta variant, which was first identified in India and is considered by government scientists to be between 40% to 80% more transmissible than the previous dominant strain. It accounts for nearly all the new cases in the U.K.
Most of the new confirmed cases are among younger age groups which haven’t yet received COVID-19 vaccines. The latest spike came as hundreds of walk-in vaccination sites, including at stadiums and shopping centers, opened in England over the weekend in a bid to boost vaccine numbers, particularly among those younger age groups.
“This is a phenomenal achievement and it’s fantastic to see so many young people coming forward for their jabs, doing their bit to protect themselves and their loved ones,” Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said.
Covid-19: ‘Delta variant may breach vaccination shield’ – Times of India
[editor’s note: the following graphic raises my concerns on the suitability of vaccinating teenagers and young adults – just passing it along without more comment – source]Delta variant of the Covid-19 coronavirus has been found to be a major factor for breakthrough infections — Covid infection in persons who have received one or both doses of the vaccine — among healthcare workers at the Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences in south Delhi.
Vaccination of the hospital’s 1800 employees began on January 16, the first day of India’s inoculation campaign, and by April-end had administered the jab to nearly 1,600. Despite the Covishield injection, hospital officials disclosed, nearly 10% of the employees tested positive for Covid. The infection rate was significantly higher in doctors and nurses than in other hospital staff, possibly due to higher exposure.
When a genomic analysis of the swab samples of the infected healthcare workers was completed recently by Dr Rajesh Pandey and Dr Anurag Agarwal at the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (IGIB), they found that 70% of the infections were caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), a variant of concern that became the predominant cause of Covid cases in Delhi from March onwards. Before that, Alpha and Kappa variants of the virus were the dominant strains.
Dr S K Sarin, director of ILBS, said the high rates of breakthrough infection caused by the Delta variant was a worrisome trend. “It shows that the variants can breach the antibodies generated by the vaccines and the vaccines currently being administered may not offer sufficient protection against new mutant strains,” warned Sarin. “There may be a need for strict double masking by healthcare workers despite vaccinations.”
Sarin also mentioned that the clinical presentation of the Delta variant patients was more severe and the virus remained in the infected subjects for longer periods.
Inflation looks bad now, but it’s pretty much sticking to the script – CNBC
Under normal circumstances, the recent spate of high inflation numbers would be cause for high alarm.
But in the present Covid-era context, they were confirmation in some quarters that the inflation picture is doing little more than following the script, rising due to one-off bottlenecks and the product of a distorted comparison to a year-ago period that saw much of the U.S. economy in shutdown mode.
May saw another significant jump, according to the gauge that Fed officials like to cite most.
The personal consumption expenditures core index – excluding food and energy costs – rose 3.4% on a year-over-basis, in line with Wall Street expectations but also the fastest increase since April 1992.
Markets took little notice of the Friday PCE reading, pushing stocks mostly higher and government bond yields up only slightly.
That was largely because that even while the inflation data has spurred comparisons to the runaway scenario associated with the 1970s, the numbers at least for now are on the side of those expecting the trend to subside and then stabilize at lower levels.
[editor’s note: also read Kyle Bass Slams Fed, Sees Inflation Everywhere He Looks]
4 signs that point to a July 21 easing of U.S.-Canada border restrictions – Politico
On the 21st of every month for 15 months, Canada and the U.S. have renewed Covid-related travel restrictions at their shared border.
There are signs July 21 might be different.
“The current situation is quite encouraging,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters Friday outside his Rideau Cottage home. “If we keep the momentum going, if we’re careful, and if we get vaccinated, the number of cases will continue to go down. And that means we can continue to move forward carefully with the reopening.”
Fresh public health data released later in the day captured a number of positive strides. Canadian public health officials highlighted still-climbing Covid-19 vaccination rates, plunging case counts, retreating pressure on hospitals and even optimism Canada is positioning itself to dodge a strong wave of the more-contagious Delta variant.
… Here are four reasons why it might be worth circling the date.
1. Key indicators are heading in the right direction. The Trudeau government has indicated it won’t make any other border adjustments until at least 75 percent of Canada’s population is fully vaccinated.
2. There have been hints from the top. Trudeau said earlier this week that the gradual border reopening will take place in the coming weeks, not months. He did stress that nothing was guaranteed given Covid’s uncertainty.
3. The first phase of reopening creates time to fine-tune for wider opening. The softened border measures for Canadians coming home take effect right before midnight on July 5.
4. Provinces are coming around. A few weeks ago, Ontario Premier Doug Ford was slamming the Trudeau government for not doing enough to tighten the border as his province struggled with the third wave. But more recently Ford has eased Covid-19 restrictions, including a suite of changes such as reopening Ontario’s borders to neighboring provinces.
Deleted gene sequences confirm coronavirus circulated before Wuhan seafood market – Stars and Stripes
The virus that causes COVID-19 did not originate at the Wuhan seafood market, confirms a new study of deleted gene sequences from the virus’ earliest days.
The sequences had been posted to a website run by the National Institutes of Health, but were removed for unknown reasons.
Finding earlier sequences like these might help reveal new insights into the SARS-CoV-2 virus’ earliest days, said Jesse Bloom, the article’s author, who studies viral evolution at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.
His new report, which has not yet been peer reviewed, does not suggest an answer to the question of whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus jumped directly from animals to people or was accidently leaked from a research lab in Wuhan, China.
“I hope scientifically, we can get beyond just arguing about that,” said Bloom, who in May joined a global call for more information about the earliest days of the outbreak.
But by studying how the viral genes mutate over time, researchers like Bloom can reconstruct their history, figuring out which cases came first and how the virus changed as it moved through the population.
“These sequences are informative for understanding early SARS-CoV-2 spread in Wuhan,” Bloom said. “They’re not transformative, but they fill in some really important gaps.”
Bloom started out trying to find early genetic sequences of the virus published by other researchers so he could analyze them himself.
In looking at one paper from March 2020, he saw evidence of a group of 45 sequences that he hadn’t seen elsewhere. When he looked for those sequences, he realized they had been deleted from a National Institutes of Health repository.
Bloom knows that the deletion will raise suspicions in the public, but he says there are many reasons a researcher might ask for material to be taken offline, including the fact that the week the study was posted, the Chinese government instituted a requirement that it review all scientific information related to SARS-CoV-2 before publication.
Bloom reached out to two Chinese researchers to ask why they wanted the information withdrawn, but has not heard back.
[editor’s note: also read Deleted coronavirus genome sequences trigger scientific intrigue]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Britain’s health minister, accused of violating restrictions, resigns amid a Delta-driven surge.
Dozens came down with Covid on Everest. Nepal says it never happened.
Sweden to allow US travelers on June 30
COVID: New restrictions amid struggle to contain Delta variant
Israel: Young people must get vaccinated to avoid reinstatement of restrictions
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
There Isn’t Enough Natural Gas to Calm Down a Global Price Rally
When parents refuse permission, some teenagers defiantly seek ways to get their Covid shots.
Johnson & Johnson to pay New York $230 million to settle opioid case
Will FDA quickly review a Lilly drug to alleviate cost concerns for Alzheimer’s treatments?
FDA adds warning about rare heart inflammation to Pfizer, Moderna COVID shots
US Navy’s Most Advanced Nuclear-Powered Sub Plagued With Problems
90 Percent of Student Loan Borrowers Say Not Ready to Restart Payments
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
What Happened To The U.S. Deficit With China During The U.S.-China Trade Conflict?
Rethinking The Free Market: Conclusions And Methods
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 27June 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 27June 2021
Is The Economy Getting Back To Normal?
Americans Increasingly Ready For A Return To Normal
A Break From Breathlessness: How Singing Helped Me Through Long Covid
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts. This daily blog is not an echo chamber for any party line – and will publish controversial topics unless there are clear reasons why the topic is false. And I usually publish conflicting topics. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions. It is not my job to sell any point of view.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking remains that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
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