Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 14.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 21.6 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 14,809
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 449
- A new study suggests that the rollout of vaccines against the COVID-19 pandemic may be significant not only in preventing infections by SARS-CoV-2 but other endemic and pandemic-potential coronaviruses (CoVs) as well.
- Nearly 60 percent of companies reported that productivity increased in their organization over the past year.
- Delta coronavirus variant believed to have 60% transmission advantage
- Heart inflammation cases higher than expected in young people after mRNA shots
- Laughing gas at 25% inhaled concentration improved symptoms for people with major depression
- Pre-existing Vitamin D deficiencies linked to COVID-19 severity and mortality
- Normal breathing sends saliva droplets 7 feet; masks shorten this
- Why do some people get side effects after COVID-19 vaccines?
- Intravenous immune globulin helped resolve the effects of vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia in three patients following receipt of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine
- Loads of additional headlines …
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus and Recovery News You May Have Missed
Biden to lay out vax donations, urge world leaders to join – AP
One year ago, the U.S. was the deadliest hotspot of the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing the cancellation of the Group of Seven summit it was due to host. Now, the U.S. is emerging as a model for how to successfully recover from more than 15 months of global crisis.
For President Joe Biden, who is meeting with leaders of the wealthy G-7 democracies on his first overseas trip since taking office, it’s a personal vindication of his pledge to turn around the U.S. virus, but also a call to action to enlist other countries in the global fight.
In a speech on the eve of the summit, Biden on Thursday will unveil plans for the U.S. to donate 500 million vaccine doses around the globe over the next year, on top of 80 million he has already pledged by the end of the month. U.S. officials say Biden will also include a direct request to his fellow G-7 leaders to do the same.
“We have to end COVID-19, not just at home — which we’re doing — but everywhere,” Biden told American servicemembers Wednesday on the first stop of his three-country, eight-day trip, adding that the effort “requires coordinated, multilateral action.”
Case Series Offers Solution for Post-COVID Vax Clotting? – MedPage
Intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) helped resolve the effects of vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) in three patients following receipt of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, a case series in Canada found.
Following administration of high-dose IVIG, all three patients with VITT experienced reduced antibody-induced platelet activation, reported Ishac Nazy, PhD, of McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, and colleagues.
All patients had arterial thrombotic events, and two also had venous thrombosis. However, no patients had evidence of new or progressive thrombosis following IVIG treatment, they wrote in a brief report in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The authors noted that VITT mimics autoimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, and high-dose IVIG helps reduce platelet activation. They added that because minimal data exist for treating patients with VITT, they used “an analogy” with autoimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia, where immune globulin “rapidly increases the platelet count and reduces hypercoagulability.”
Inflation is hotter than expected, but looks ‘transitory’ and likely won’t affect Fed policy yet – CNBC
[editor’s note: read our review of the CPI. Also read China’s highest producer inflation in over 12 years highlights global price pressures]
- Consumer prices rose sharply in May, with the CPI jumping 5%, more than economists expected.
- Stocks rose and bond yields fluctuated after market pros decided the hot inflation report wouldn’t lead to any changes in the Fed’s easy policy.
- Economists said there are signs that rising prices could be temporary since they are centered in areas impacted by the pandemic.
Alarming new research: Employee well-being is deteriorating – Conference Board
Nearly 60 percent of companies reported that productivity increased in their organization over the past year. That’s according to a new survey from The Conference Board of more than 230 HR executives. But higher productivity may have taken a toll: 76 percent of respondents said that they had seen an increase in employees identifying as burned out; 72 percent said that more employees had sought mental health support; 60 percent said the number of vacation days used decreased; and 55 percent reported a decrease in work-life balance.
“During the pandemic, employees were often working longer hours in crisis conditions. While that may have boosted productivity, that level of performance is most likely unsustainable. Deteriorated levels of employee well-being are also likely related to increased anxiety and stress resulting from multiple factors, such as the global health crisis, the economic crisis, and the lack of childcare,” said Robin Erickson, PhD, report co-author and Principal Researcher at The Conference Board. “As some of these situations are resolved or stabilized and organizations make long-term decisions about a future with more remote work, they will need to continuously monitor their employee experience and holistic well-being.”
Delta coronavirus variant believed to have 60% transmission advantage – UK epidemiologist – Reuters
The Delta coronavirus variant of concern, first identified in India, is believed to be 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant which was previously dominant in Britain, a prominent UK epidemiologist said on Wednesday.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that England’s full reopening from COVID-19 lockdown, pencilled in for June 21, could be pushed back due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant. read more
Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told reporters that estimates of Delta’s transmission edge over Alpha had narrowed, and “we think 60% is probably the best estimate”.
Ferguson said that modelling suggested any third wave of infections could rival Britain’s second wave in the winter – which was fuelled by the Alpha variant first identified in Kent, south east England.
But it was unclear how any spike in hospitalisations would translate into a rise in deaths, as more detail was needed on how well the vaccine protects against serious illness from Delta.
“It’s well within possibility that we could see another third wave at least comparable in terms of hospitalisations,” he said.
Laughing gas at 25% inhaled concentration improved symptoms for people with major depression, according to a phase II trial – Science
About one-third of individuals suffering from depression are at risk for treatment resistance. Whereas inhaled 50% nitrous oxide has early antidepressant effects on individuals with treatment-resistant major depression (TRMD), adverse effects can occur at this concentration. In this phase 2 clinical trial, Nagele et al. studied the effects of a single 1-hour treatment with 25% nitrous oxide on depression symptoms in those with TRMD, finding that this lower concentration had comparable efficacy to 50% nitrous oxide over several weeks but was associated with significantly fewer adverse effects. These results highlight that lower concentrations of nitrous oxide may be a useful treatment for TRMD.
Are pre-existing Vitamin D deficiencies linked to COVID-19 severity and mortality? – News-Medical
Earlier research has indicated that a low vitamin D level at admission, or a history of VDD, indicates higher chances of severe disease. Here, the investigators showed that VDD presents even before the onset of infection is linked to poorer outcomes during hospitalization.
These findings are not in complete congruence with all earlier studies. One reason may be the use of supplemental vitamin D in patients with low levels, the results being difficult to gauge. Genetic heterogeneity may also play a role in determining the risk posed by COVID-19 in the individual.
A large meta-analysis involving almost 50,000 patients with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) showed the safety of this measure and an overall reduction in ARIs compared to a placebo. The benefits of vitamin D supplementation in improving COVID-19 outcomes remain to be established, however.
The findings thus support a link between VDD and severe COVID-19. “It should be emphasized that VitD represents only one piece of the complex puzzle that is COVID-19.” Further studies are required to assess the possible benefits of supplemental vitamin D in those with VDD in terms of mitigating the risk in case of COVID-19 infection.
Normal breathing sends saliva droplets 7 feet; masks shorten this – EurekAlert
The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control recommend keeping a certain distance between people to prevent the spread of COVID-19. These social distancing recommendations are estimated from a variety of studies, but further research about the precise mechanism of virus transport from one person to another is still needed.
In Physics of Fluids, by AIP Publishing, researchers from Stony Brook University, Harvard, ETH Zurich, and Hanyang University demonstrate normal breathing indoors without a mask can transport saliva droplets capable of carrying virus particles to a distance of 2.2 meters, or 7.2 feet, in a matter of 90 seconds.
The use of a face mask significantly reduces the distance these droplets travel. After almost two minutes, the saliva droplets restricted by a mask had traveled only 0.72 meters, under 2.4 feet and well below the distance of 1.8 meters, or 6 feet, suggested by the CDC.
The study used computer simulations with a more realistic model for the situation of interest than those used in previous studies. Previous work considered aerosol transport after coughing or sneezing, while this study specifically looked at normal human breathing. A normal breath produces periodic jet flows that contain saliva droplets, but the velocity at which the jet travels is less than a tenth that of a cough or sneeze.
The investigators found even normal breathing produces a complex field of vortices that can move saliva droplets away from the person’s mouth. The role of these vortices has not previously been understood.
US Signs $1.2 Bln Deal for 1.7 Mln Courses of Merck’s Experimental COVID-19 Drug – Medscape
Merck & Co Inc said on Wednesday the U.S. government has agreed to pay about $1.2 billion for 1.7 million courses of its experimental COVID-19 treatment, if it is proven to work in an ongoing large trial and authorized by U.S. regulators.
The oral antiviral treatment, molnupiravir, aims to stop COVID-19 from progressing and can be given early in the course of the disease, similar to Tamiflu to treat influenza.
The treatment course being tested in the trial is an oral dose given every 12 hours for five days.
Merck expects to have more than 10 million courses of the therapy available by the end of this year and said it was in discussions with other countries interested in advance purchase agreements for molnupiravir.
The company, which is developing the drug with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, is assessing the treatment in a late-stage trial in non-hospitalized patients to see if it reduces the risk of hospitalization or death.
Heart inflammation cases higher than expected in young people after mRNA shots – CNBC
- The number of cases of a heart inflammation condition in 16- to 24-year-olds was higher than expected after they received their second dose of Pfizer’s or Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines, the CDC said.
- There have been 275 reported cases of myocarditis or pericarditis, which are inflammation conditions involving the heart, in people ages 16 to 24 as of May 31, according to a CDC presentation.
Why do some people get side effects after COVID-19 vaccines? – AP
Here’s what’s happening: The immune system has two main arms, and the first kicks in as soon as the body detects a foreign intruder. White blood cells swarm to the site, prompting inflammation that’s responsible for chills, soreness, fatigue and other side effects.
This rapid-response step of your immune system tends to wane with age, one reason younger people report side effects more often than older adults. Also, some vaccines simply elicit more reactions than others.
That said, everyone reacts differently. If you didn’t feel anything a day or two after either dose, that doesn’t mean the vaccine isn’t working.
Behind the scenes, the shots also set in motion the second part of your immune system, which will provide the real protection from the virus by producing antibodies.
Another nuisance side effect: As the immune system activates, it also sometimes causes temporary swelling in lymph nodes, such as those under the arm. Women are encouraged to schedule routine mammograms ahead of COVID-19 vaccination to avoid a swollen node being mistaken for cancer.
Not all side effects are routine. But after hundreds of millions of vaccine doses administered around the world — and intense safety monitoring — few serious risks have been identified. A tiny percentage of people who got vaccines made by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson reported an unusual type of blood clot. Some countries reserved those shots for older adults but regulatory authorities say the benefits of offering them still outweigh the risks.
People also occasionally have serious allergic reactions. That’s why you’re asked to stick around for about 15 minutes after getting any type of COVID-19 vaccine — to ensure any reaction can be promptly treated.
Finally, authorities are trying to determine whether temporary heart inflammation that can occur with many types of infections also might be a rare side effect after the mRNA vaccines, the kind made by Pfizer and Moderna. U.S. health officials can’t yet tell if there’s a link but say they’re monitoring a small number of reports, mostly male teens or young adults.
A preprint version of the study is available on the bioRxiv* server, while the article undergoes peer review.
SARS-CoV-2 vaccines elicit cross-reactive CoV antibodies in humans
The use of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in humans was associated with marked increases in antibodies against this virus, of course, but also of cross-reactive antibodies against SARS-CoV-1 and the common cold coronavirus OC43 in people with or without a history of infection with SARS-CoV-2.
COVID-19 patients also developed antibodies that recognized all three viruses.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
China battles an ongoing coronavirus outbreak in Guangzhou, where the entire population of 18.7 million was tested between Sunday and Tuesday.
Coronavirus Wave Takes Haiti, Yet to Begin Vaccinations, by Surprise
Cruise passengers test positive for COVID-19 on ship in Italy
WHO official: Delta variant ‘poised to take hold’ in Europe
An Israeli study, which was published in the journal Nature Medicine on Thursday, took advantage of the fact that until recently Israel was only vaccinating people 16 or older. For every 20 percentage point increase in the share of 16- to 50-year-olds who were vaccinated in a community, the researchers found, the share of unvaccinated under 16s who tested positive for the virus fell by half.
Afghanistan gets 700,000 doses of a Chinese vaccine amid a Covid surge overwhelming Kabul.
India’s death toll rises sharply after one state’s audit showed a huge undercount.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Eight of the 10 least-vaccinated states are in the South, a reflection of vaccine hesitancy and poor access to health care.
Dr. Fauci’s Preposterous Lie: “Attacks On Me Are Attacks On Science”
Russia designated Aleksei Navalny’s political group as extremist, a warning to Biden before his meeting with Vladimir Putin next week.
A major meat processor paid $11 million ransom in Bitcoin to the hackers who forced it to close its beef plants last week.
Half a billion doses of the Pfizer COVID vaccine will be purchased by the U.S. and donated to other countries within a year. A similar deal with Moderna is reportedly in the works.
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services will now pay an extra $35 per dose for in-home COVID-19 vaccinations.
A letter in the New England Journal of Medicine describes a case of local dengue transmission in Florida that led to the death of a woman in her 30s.
Women of all ages are catching up to men in alcohol consumption.
The states with the highest COVID vaccination rates happen to have been won by President Biden in the 2020 election.
Migraine Patients Report Higher COVID Incidence
COVID-19 creates hearing, balance disorders, aggravates tinnitus symptoms
SARS-CoV-2 detectable — though likely not transmissible — on hospital surfaces
Millions of J&J COVID Vaccine Doses get 6 Week Expiration Date Extension
CDC estimates Alpha variant made up 66 percent of COVID-19 cases in April
Biden administration tells federal agencies they should not require employee vaccinations
Moderna asks FDA to clear COVID-19 vaccine for adolescents
Biden administration vaccinating migrant children against COVID-19
The Occupational Safety and Health Administration announced a rule on Thursday outlining steps that employers must take to protect workers from the risk of Covid-19, but it will apply only to the health care industry, not to other high-risk workplaces, as the Biden administration initially indicated.
Goldman Sachs requires its U.S. employees to report their vaccination status.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic and Recovery With Hyperlinks
05 June 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Again Declines
May 2021 CPI: Year-over-Year Inflation Continues To Heat Up
05 June 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improvement Continues
1Q2021 CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Report: Nationwide Homeowner Equity Gains Hit $1.9 Trillion
Documentary Of The Week: Are There Limits To Growth?
The Secret IRS Files: Trove Of Never-Before-Seen Records Reveal How The Wealthiest Avoid Income Tax
Biden’s Plan For Capital Gains Taxes Gets It Mostly Right
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option as the variants are continuing to look for ways around immunity.
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
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