Written by Steven Hansen
Week 18 of 2021 shows the same week total rail traffic (from the same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Total rail traffic – which has been in contraction for over one year – is now surging as it is being compared to the pandemic lockdown period one year ago.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We are now seeing great rail growth as the data is being compared to the coronavirus lockdown period last year.
Total rail traffic has two components – carloads and intermodal (containers or trailers on rail cars). This week again both carloads and intermodal continued in expansion year-over-year – continuing on a strengthening trendline.
Rail is now growing year-over-year.
We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) expanded 38.3 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors improved from +30.8 % to +34.4 %
When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.
The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
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This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of the profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] ).
| Percent current rolling average change from the rolling average of one year ago | Trend Direction | |
| 4 week rolling average | +29.8 % | improving |
| 13 week rolling average | +14.2 % | improving |
| 52 week rolling average | +0.6 % | improving |
A summary for this week from the AAR:
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 523,309 carloads and intermodal units, up 26.9 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending May 8 were 236,019 carloads, up 27.6 percent compared with the same week in 2020, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 287,290 containers and trailers, up 26.3 percent compared to 2020.
All of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2020. They included coal, up 16,361 carloads, to 62,675; metallic ores and metals, up 9,925 carloads, to 23,543; and motor vehicles and parts, up 9,221 carloads, to 11,327.
For the first 18 weeks of 2021, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 4,098,956 carloads, up 4 percent from the same point last year; and 5,080,788 intermodal units, up 18.1 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 18 weeks of 2021 was 9,179,744 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 11.3 percent compared to last year.
The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +27.6 % | +26.3 % | +26.9 % |
| — Ignoring coal, grain & petroleum | +38.4 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +4.0 % | +18.1 % | +11.3 % |
[click on the graph below to enlarge]
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