Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 13.0 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 3.0 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 23.2 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at an elevated 215,805
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an elevated 131,326
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at a record 4,327
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 2.8 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths worsened
- First Pfizer COVID Vaccine Shot Cuts Risk of Infection by 50 Percent: Study
- Brazil results show Chinese Sinovac vaccine only 50.4% effective
- South Africa Variant’s “escape mutant” Could Decrease Vaccine Efficacy
- U.S. Vaccine Shift Stirs Fresh Unease as 128 Million Join Line
- U.S. Blood Supply Shows Covid-19 Has Spread Is Higher Than We Think
- States told to expand priority access to tens of millions of additional people immediately
- Public Schools Should (Almost Always) Stay Open – or Not?
- U.S. counter-intelligence chief worried about China, Russia threats to vaccine supply chain
- What Makes Building Ventilation Good Enough to Withstand a Pandemic?
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Impact of Holidays – Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Just Beginning To Normalize After The Holiday Season
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is growing at an ever slowing growth rate which is not all good news as it means the number of beds needed is currently growing around 3 % every week.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of year holiday period – roughly, it seems to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating since.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/13/world/covid19-coronavirus
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
We Are Likely In A Pandemic Surge Caused By The Holidays And Virus Mutation
The “experts” will tell you they told you so – and you should have stayed at home instead of traveling to be with the people you care about. And there is some truth in this opinion.
But there will be no way to accurately understand the impact of the holidays because there are new mutant strains of the coronavirus that are more transmissible.
To gauge the impact of anything, you change ONLY ONE variable at a time (and hopefully in a controlled environment). There are now two variables in play – and it is nearly impossible to separate the impact of each.
You can track the effective reproduction rate of the virus [here]. It shows how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective – BBC
A coronavirus vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac has been found to be 50.4% effective in Brazilian clinical trials, according to the latest results released by researchers.
It shows the vaccine is significantly less effective than previous data suggested – barely over the 50% needed for regulatory approval.
The Chinese vaccine is one of two that the Brazilian government has lined up.
Brazil has been one of the countries worst affected by Covid-19.
Sinovac, a Beijing-based biopharmaceutical company, is behind CoronaVac, an inactivated vaccine. It works by using killed viral particles to expose the body’s immune system to the virus without risking a serious disease response.
Several countries, including Indonesia, Turkey and Singapore, have placed orders for the vaccine.
Last week researchers at the Butantan Institute, which has been conducting the trials in Brazil, announced that the vaccine had a 78% efficacy against “mild-to-severe” Covid-19 cases.
But on Tuesday they revealed that calculations for this figure did not include data from a group of “very mild infections” among those who received the vaccine that did not require clinical assistance.
U.S. Vaccine Shift Stirs Fresh Unease as 128 Million Join Line – Bloomberg
The U.S. government wants states to offer vaccines to millions more Americans as Covid-19 infections continue to soar, in a bid to bolster an immunization campaign that’s off to a rocky start.
In recommending that states start immunizing all residents 65 and older, along with all those between 16 and 64 with medical conditions that make them more vulnerable to serious disease, U.S. health officials are clearing a path for about 128 million more Americans to be vaccinated.
About 10 million people have received the first dose of a Covid vaccine since immunizations started in late December, according to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker. The rapid shift in strategy has raised worries that an accelerated rollout, for which many states may not be ready, could lead to new shortfalls down the road.
“The first couple of weeks it was all: Why aren’t they all done, why aren’t you getting them out fast enough?” Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said in a briefing Tuesday. “The next story is going to be: There’s hundreds of thousands of people waiting for the vaccines and we don’t have any.”
Expanding eligibility is intended to speed up vaccination by increasing demand and giving providers more flexibility, resulting in fewer wasted doses. Yet such a strategy with supplies still limited risks exacerbating the frustration and chaos already playing out in some states. Striking a balance between immunizing quickly and establishing confidence in the U.S. vaccination campaign will be crucial in the weeks ahead.
In a briefing Tuesday, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar also urged states to open up vaccination to younger people with medical conditions that put them at higher risk of severe illness from Covid-19. States can ultimately decide how to prioritize the shots they receive.
Public Schools Should (Almost Always) Stay Open – MedPage
… our conclusion is that schools provide a vital service to American society. Schools may even be more important in the U.S. than in Western Europe, which bent over backward in the fall to reopen them and keep them open. The schools that are open in the U.S. often cater to the affluent, and globally there is no relationship between metrics of pandemic virus — cases, hospitalizations, or deaths — and whether schools are open and closed.
We believe: schools must remain open unless the local healthcare system is facing collapse, due to capacity constraints. Short of such a scenario, the tradeoffs favor doing everything possible to keep schools open. This is not an easy decision to reach, but deciding which course is best when facing hard tradeoffs is the hallmark of policy.
Some argue that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 — the B.1.1.7 strain — changes the calculus. B.1.1.7 has raised concern that it may be more likely to infect kids, more likely to spread in schools, and change the cost-benefit calculations regarding school openings. Early data from the United Kingdom does suggest the virus is more transmissible: 15% of household contacts acquire B.1.1.7 vs 11% for other strains. However, there is no evidence that its increased transmissibility is occurring preferentially in younger ages. As such, this strain must be watched cautiously and might increase overall cases of COVID-19, but there is no reason it changes the calculus we laid out here. Schools should remain open unless there is pending health systems collapse — with the strain or without. That point may come slightly sooner in some regions, but if it does not come, schools ought to remain open.
In short, for the reasons we summarize here, we are in favor of schools. We don’t take this view because we are callous or indifferent to loss of life, we take this view because we believe in our hearts and minds that it will result in the least amount of human harm and suffering over the long haul. When it comes to pandemics, there are no winners. Opening schools means we lose less. Sometimes losing less is the best we can do.
[Editor’s note: balance this with “A growing body of evidence appears to indicate that children attending school do play an important role in community transmission of Covid-19. It comes at a time when the science around the link between kids and the spread of the coronavirus is still evolving.”]
U.S. plan to expand access to Covid-19 vaccine likely sets up new debacles – STAT
As health authorities across the country struggle to get Covid-19 vaccination programs up and running, outgoing Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar threw a new wrench into the works on Tuesday, telling states to expand priority access to tens of millions of additional people immediately.
But it will be several months before there is enough vaccine available to meet that kind of demand. The move all but ensures the current narrative around the vaccine rollout — it’s too slow — will shift, but not in a positive direction: The incoming Biden administration will likely face a groundswell of complaints about long lines, failed efforts to find vaccine supplies, and an inequitable distribution system as it tries to live up to its promise of seeing 100 million vaccine doses administered in the new president’s first 100 days in office.
Azar’s new instructions put 152 million people — about half of the adult population of the country — at the front of the vaccine line. But Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. effort to fast-track the development and distribution of vaccine, currently estimates it will take until the end of March before it has 200 million doses to distribute. Even if those doses can be manufactured and shipped seamlessly, that’s only enough for 100 million people, given that the currently authorized vaccines require two doses each.
If states follow Azar’s instructions, a 24-year-old smoker who works from home would have the same vaccine priority status as a frail 85-year-old — and would be ahead of non-smoking teachers, municipal bus drivers, meat packing plant employees, and other frontline essential workers whom the CDC had previously recommended should be vaccinated in Phase 1b.
States, lacking sufficient federal funding and coping with limited supplies, have struggled to complete the vaccination of people in Phase 1a, which includes health workers plus the residents and staff of long-term care facilities — a population of about 24 million people. Federal officials believe the efforts will get easier as more supply becomes available, but to date only about 9.3 million people have received their first dose of vaccine, according to the CDC.
[editor’s note: you may want to read this entire article]
U.S. counter-intelligence chief worried about China, Russia threats to vaccine supply chain – Reuters
William Evanina, director of the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center, told an online Washington Post event that U.S. adversaries were trying to interfere with Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. government operation distributing the vaccines.
“Our adversaries are trying to disrupt that supply chain,” he said. Asked which adversaries he was particularly concerned about, he replied, “I would say China and Russia right now.”
The Chinese and Russian embassies did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Evanina’s assertion. Russia and China have denied U.S. accusations that hackers linked to both governments tried to steal data from vaccine manufacturers.
Evanina said that his agency was working with the U.S. Army and the Department of Health and Human Services to ensure the safe “transportation” of the vaccines “from the manufacturing site to the end-user inoculation.”
What Makes Building Ventilation Good Enough to Withstand a Pandemic? – Bloomberg CityLab
… As evidence suggesting Covid-19 can spread through aerosol transmission continues to mount, health experts are focused less on sanitizing surfaces and more on improving indoor air quality. In December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finally put out its ventilation recommendations to combat Covid-19, based on standards set by ASHRAE, or the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers.
David Sasse at the San Francisco-based building inspection firm Healthy Building Science says they’ve seen a bump in HVAC inspection requests related to Covid over the last few months. But not every building manager can afford the upgrades or wants to cover the expense — upfront costs can be in the thousands of dollars and increased energy use can add to the price tag.
Experts like Newell say the investment is worth it. It will be the key to a safe and healthy return to offices and schools, even with the rollout of Covid vaccines, he says. New disease outbreaks are expected to crop up in the future, and “apart from the pandemic, having an improved filter also gets other particulates out of the air that impact your health — these very fine particulates that easily go way down into your lung,” he says. “Only good things happen when you bring in more fresh air,” including a potential increase in productivity and academic performance.
… Improving ventilation typically involves some combination of letting in more fresh air, upgrading air filtration systems and installing technologies like UV light to kill those pathogens.
… “How can a patron, employee, teacher, or worshipper know if proper ventilation is occurring?” Newell says.
One of the best ways to know is to measure the concentration of CO2 in each room or part of a building, he says, because it shows the amount of exhaled air that has built up in the room without enough fresh air to flush it out. C02 levels should register no more than 800 parts per million. “If you see [a place with] levels much above 800 ppm, don’t spend much time in there,” Newell advises. But that measurement requires specific technology. Ideally, Newell would like everyone to carry a CO2 meter in their pockets, but those instruments can cost upwards of $100.
What the Blood Supply Shows About Covid-19’s Spread – Medscape
… Since early in the pandemic, scientists have used antibodies to try to estimate the true number of Covid-19 infections in the community, mapping the invisible scale of the pandemic. Some of those studies work a bit like a public opinion survey, taking samples from randomly selected people. Others look at specific groups, like dialysis patients or hospital workers.
MASS is taking the second approach, but on a much larger scale. The program is split into two studies, one relying on blood from the hundreds of thousands of people who donate blood every month, and the other on people who have had blood drawn as part of their medical care, such as for a cholesterol test.
Each month, more than a hundred thousand samples from nonprofit blood donation organizations around the country are shipped to testing laboratories to search for antibodies. A similar process takes place with clinical samples.
Their data so far suggest that a lot of people have had Covid-19 without ever receiving a diagnosis. Confirmed case counts suggest that almost 7 percent of people in the U.S. have had the virus. Data from the arm of the study looking at blood from clinical laboratory tests from all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico found rates of antibody positivity that at times ranged from under 1 percent in some states to 23 percent in New York.
Data from the American Red Cross, which is providing serosurveillance data as part of the MASS study, indicated that 8.4 percent of U.S. blood donors it tested in a week in late November carried antibodies to Covid-19 in their blood, wrote Susan Stramer, vice president of scientific affairs at the American Red Cross Biomedical Services, in an email. That was roughly double the percentage of the U.S. population that had had confirmed cases by that time.
First Pfizer COVID Vaccine Shot Cuts Risk of Infection by 50 Percent: Study – Newsweek
The Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine reduces the risk of infection by around 50 percent 14 days after the first of two shots is administered, preliminary data from Israel’s mass vaccination program suggests.
Sharon Alroy-Preis, a top official in the Israeli health ministry, told the country’s Channel 12 News that the conclusions were based on the results of hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 tests.
Israel is currently leading the world in terms of vaccination, vaccinating nearly a fifth of its population.
Around two million people have received vaccinations in the small Middle Eastern nation, with more than five million Israelis set to receive shots by March, if a plan developed by the country’s health ministry goes smoothly.
Alroy-Preis said that around one-fifth of more than 1,000 COVID-19 patients in the country with serious disease had already received their first dose of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine, highlighting the importance of taking precautions between doses.
“Seventeen percent of the new serious cases today, or 180 cases, are after the first dose,” Alroy-Preis told reporters.
The Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine has been shown to reduce an individual’s risk of developing COVID-19 by 95 percent. But this level of protection—and long-lasting immunity—is only reached more than a week or so after the second dose. This second dose is supposed to be administered 21 days after the first.
Ohio researchers say they’ve identified two new Covid strains likely originating in the U.S. – CNBC
Researchers in Ohio said Wednesday that they’ve discovered two new variants of the coronavirus that likely originated in the U.S. — one of which quickly became the dominant strain in Columbus, Ohio, over a three-week period in late December and early January.
Like the strain first detected in the U.K., the U.S. mutations appear to make Covid-19 more contagious but do not seem like they will diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines, researchers said.
The Ohio State University researchers have not yet published their full findings, but said a non-peer-reviewed study is forthcoming. Jason McDonald, a spokesman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a statement to CNBC that the agency is looking at the new research.
One of the new strains, found in just one patient in Ohio, contains a mutation identical to the now-dominant variant in the U.K., researchers said, noting that it “likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States.” However, the “Columbus strain,” which the researchers said in a press release has become dominant in the city, includes “three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2.”
[Editor’s note: remember a few days ago when Dr. Birx was knee-capped for suggesting there were USA grown COVID mutations. Sorry boys and girls, yah must be skeptical of all news.]
Reasons to be cheerful: Vaccines expert explains why he thinks US can stop spread of virus by June – CNN
Even as the United States broke a record for the number of Covid-19 deaths reported in a single day, Dr. Paul Offit told CNN’s New Day there were several reasons to be hopeful that the coronavirus situation could get “dramatically better” soon.
Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia and a member of the US Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, acknowledged the “awful” numbers are likely to continue for a few months, but said there are reasons for optimism:
Mass vaccinations
There are two “remarkably effective” vaccines and “we’re finally starting to get how to mass administer,” Offit said, citing examples such as the Pennsylvania Convention Center or the Dodger Stadium. Meanwhile two more vaccines – those from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca — “are right around the corner,” he added.
Warmer weather
“The weather will get warmer, when the weather gets warmer, that makes it much more difficult for this virus,” Offit said, explaining that when it is hot and humid, the virus, which is spread by small droplets, spreads less easily.
New political administration
Offit said the incoming Biden administration “isn’t into this cult of denialism” that surrounded the Trump administration’s coronavirus response, and it would “take this problem head on.”
A population building immunity
The number of people who have been reported to have been infected with coronavirus — 23 million — is an underestimate, according to Offit. Many people have had an asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infection and were never tested. The numbers who have been infected are probably closer to 65 or 70 million, he said.
“That’s 20% of the population that when they’re re-exposed to this virus are not going to become sick with it,” he said, although it’s not clear how long immunity after infection lasts.
If another 55 to 60% of the population can be vaccinated — something which Offit said can be done at a million to a million and a half doses a day — “then I really do think that by June we can stop the spread of this virus.”
COVID-19: Scientists Fear ‘escape Mutant’ Could Decrease Vaccine Efficacy – RepublicWorld
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have now identified ‘escape mutant’ that might have the ability to decrease the efficiency of recently-developed vaccines.
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have now identified ‘escape mutant’ that might have the ability to decrease the efficiency of vaccines. The mutation named E484K has been reportedly found in the variant of the novel coronavirus that was first spotted in South Africa nearly two months ago but has now spread to at least 12 more countries. As per the CNN report, Penny Moore, associate professor at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa called the mutation ‘alarming’.
“We fear this mutation might have an impact, and what we don’t know is the extent of the impact,” she said.
E484K is called an “escape mutant” because it is showing that it might be able to ‘escape’ some of the antibodies produced by the COVID-19 vaccines. Moore along with other scientists are studying this new kind of mutation in the new variant but still have to conclude tier work in the lab to determine if the vaccine is less effective against the new strain or not.
As per the report, the scientists are expected to reveal the results in the next few weeks about the variant that has drastically spiked the new infections in South Africa. However, based on the research done on the ‘escape mutant’ so far, scientists highly doubt that E484K will render the coronavirus vaccines useless. But they think the single mutation or its combination with other modifications in the variant, could jointly decrease the efficacy of the vaccine.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
In China, millions of people are lining up in subzero temperatures to receive a second round of coronavirus tests in a city south of Beijing that is at the heart of the country’s most serious latest outbreak.
Facing new outbreaks, China puts more than 22 million under lockdown.
Mexico Tourism: For more than two weeks over the holidays, it seemed like tourism had returned to Mexico. Quintana Roo state, home to Cancun, the Riviera Maya and Tulum, received more than 960,000 tourists, down only 25% from the previous year.
India Goa: The sun’s golden rays fall on Goa’s smooth, sandy beaches every evening, magical as ever but strangely quiet and lonely. This holiday season, few visitors are enjoying the celebrated sunsets in the Indian party location.
India Prepares For Massive Vaccine Drive, But Some Fear It’s Moving Too Quickly
Japan extends state of emergency to seven more districts
Russian Woman United With Baby After COVID-19 C-section and 51 Days on Life Support
Putin orders ‘mass vaccination’ in Russia from next week
U.K. COVID Vaccine Centers To Open 24/7 ‘as Soon as Possible’
COVID Patients Could Be Moved To Hotels To Free up Hospital Beds in England
Dr. Tegnell: Sweden No-Lockdown Plan ‘Wasn’t That Different’ To Elsewhere
Indonesia’s president receives a Chinese-made vaccine that produced disappointing trial results.
The first coronavirus vaccines reach the U.S. prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.
WHO director asks wealthy nations to share vaccine with low income nations
Cuba reports record daily infections as it eyes fresh clampdown
Cuba is shutting schools as Covid-19 surges
Vatican begins Covid-19 vaccinations
Armenian president hospitalized with severe Covid-19
Starting next Monday, people in the German state of Bavaria will be required to wear an “FFP2” mask on public transport and while shopping. The FFP2 filtering mask is standardized in Europe. It differs from surgical masks in that it usually has four layers and is meant to provide a high degree of protection. FFP2 masks are often used in construction, agriculture and by healthcare workers. An equivalent is the N95 mask.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The House is reportedly imposing fines on lawmakers who don’t wear masks in the House chamber — $500 for a first offense and $2,500 for a second offense.
Have you ever thought about double-masking? It might be a good idea, especially if the masks are on the flimsier side.
GI and respiratory viruses have been much diminished this year due to COVID-19 lockdowns and other measures, but scientists are expecting a rebound eventually.
What will COVID-19 look like in the future? It could wind up resembling a “minor, cold-causing” virus in the long run, according to a model developed by scientists at Emory University and Penn State University.
Employers took stimulus aid, then still closed
Stay-At-Home Order Lifted For Sacramento Region In California
Incoming White House press secretary says staff will wear N95 masks
More than 10 percent of the U.S. Congress has tested positive.
Zucker says pandemic led to end of CNN Airport Network
Dollar General offers workers four hours pay to get COVID-19 vaccine
$100B in PPP loans forgiven: SBA
COVID Protections Suppressed Flu Season in US
Johnson & Johnson expects to release critical results from its coronavirus vaccine trial in as little as two weeks but probably won’t be able to provide as many doses this spring as it promised the federal government because of manufacturing delays.
NYC may turn vacant retail space into Covid testing sites, says property mogul
Mueller Found No ‘Conspiracy’ Between WikiLeaks, Trump and Russia. So Why Didn’t We Hear About it?
Oklahoma, with no statewide mask mandate, grapples with a surging caseload.
The death of a Miami doctor who received a coronavirus vaccine is being investigated.
GOP Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida wants President-elect Joe Biden to push for $2,000 stimulus checks on his first day in office.
Cybersecurity firm Check Point has uncovered a number of people on the so-called dark web claiming to sell Covid-19 vaccines. The vendors were asking for payments in bitcoin but did not deliver the goods. Listings for vaccines had price tags as high as $1,000 worth of bitcoins.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
January 2021 Beige Book: Growth Now Seen As Only Modest
December 2020 CPI: Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Grows
More Irrational Exuberance? A Look At Stock Prices
Here’s Why Blind Contrarianism Failed In 2020
Covid-19: East Asia vs. The World
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity. However, How Many Americans Are Immune From COVID? Research into the coronavirus is running way behind the need for answers. Whilst we strive for herd immunity through vaccination – we lack an understanding of the general immunity people might have to the pandemic. This will affect the point herd immunity can be reached. The following articles discuss immunity: Can the Common Cold Help Protect You from COVID-19?, Does the Common Cold Protect You from COVID-19?, Immune cells for the common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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