Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 750 K to 895 K (consensus 803 K), and the Department of Labor reported 787,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 837,500 (reported last week as 836,750) to 818,750
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 74,040,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 19,176,857 down from last week’s 19,563,905
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 272 % higher than one year ago (versus the 270 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending January 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 787,000 to 790,000. The 4-week moving average was 818,750, a decrease of 18,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 836,750 to 837,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending December 26, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.1 from 3.6 to 3.5 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 26 was 5,072,000, a decrease of 126,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 21,000 from 5,219,000 to 5,198,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,274,750, a decrease of 177,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 5,250 from 5,457,250 to 5,452,000.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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