Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 800 K to 845 K (consensus 833 K), and the Department of Labor reported 898,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 858,250 (reported last week as 857,000) to 866,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Note from the BLS concerning California:
In response to recommendations resulting from an internal review of state operations, the state of California has announced a two week pause in its processing of initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits. The state will use this time to reduce its claims processing backlog and implement fraud prevention technology. Recognizing that the pause will likely result in significant week to week swings in initial claims for California and the nation unrelated to any changes in economic conditions, California’s initial claims published in the UI Claims News Release will reflect the level reported during the last week prior to the pause. Upon completion of the pause and the post-pause processing, the state will submit revised reports to reflect claims in the week during which they were filed.
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 64,802,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 25,290,325
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 301 % higher than one year ago (versus the 300 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 898,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 5,000 from 840,000 to 845,000. The 4-week moving average was 866,250, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 857,000 to 858,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 6.8 percent for the week ending October 3, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.2 from 7.5 to 7.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 3 was 10,018,000, a decrease of 1,165,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 207,000 from 10,976,000 to 11,183,000. The 4-week moving average was 11,481,750, a decrease of 682,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 51,750 from 12,112,250 to 12,164,000.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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