Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 3.5 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.5 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Gottlieb: Doctors ‘probably considering’ remdesivir for Trump
- Donald Trump Tests Positive for COVID-19: What is the Risk for Over-70s?
- The next week is the critical phase in Trump’s illness. Here are the risks he faces
- Trump kept a busy public diary in the pandemic. Putin installed walk-through disinfectant tunnels
- Trump isn’t the first sitting U.S. president to contract a potentially deadly virus in the middle of a pandemic – so did Woodrow Wilson in 1918
- EU Regulator Launches Real-Time Review of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 Vaccine
- About 1.4% of Amazon Workers Caught COVID, Compared to 2.2% of U.S. Public
- Manhattan apartment sales tumble 46%, leaving 10,000 unsold units
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 02 October 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 02 October 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 42,771 | 7,280,000 | 291,915 | 34,350,000 | 14.7% | 21.2% |
| Deaths** | 880 | 207,808 | 8,647 | 1,030,000 | 10.2% | 20.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.67* | 342.18* | ||||
* as of 26 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
President Trump and First Lady Test Positive for COVID-19 – NPR
President Trump and first lady Melania Trump have tested positive for the coronavirus.
The president broke the news on Twitter just before 1 a.m. ET Friday.
“Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!”
White House physician Sean Conley confirmed the results in a memo dated Oct. 1, writing that the Trump and the first lady had tested positive that evening and that the president would continue “carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering” from the virus that causes COVID-19.
White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told reporters Friday that the president has “mild symptoms” but did not discuss the type of symptoms. The first lady said on Twitter that she also has mild symptoms but is “overall feeling good.”
Manhattan apartment sales tumble 46%, leaving 10,000 unsold units – CNBC
- Apartment sales in Manhattan plunged by 46% in the third quarter, as homebuyers continued to flow to the suburbs and Florida, according to new real estate reports.
- There are now about 10,000 apartments for sale in Manhattan, which would be a record, according to Compass.
- Factors like high unemployment, rising crime and growing sanitation and public transit problems may make buyers reluctant to make a big bet on Manhattan real estate.
EU Regulator Launches Real-Time Review of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 Vaccine – Medscape
The European health regulator has started reviewing data on AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s potential COVID-19 vaccine in real time, the first of such moves aimed at speeding up any approval process in the region for a vaccine.
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) said on Thursday its human medicines committee is evaluating the first batch of non-clinical data on the vaccine from laboratory studies, and will continue to do so till sufficient data is available for a final decision. (https://bit.ly/36qyDZM)
The EMA uses “rolling reviews” to speed up evaluations of promising drugs or vaccines during a public health emergency, subverting the typical process by assessing data as it is submitted, rather than waiting for all data to be made available along with a formal application.
The healthcare regulator employed a similar real-time review of Gilead’s remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19 earlier this year, and the antiviral treatment was given conditional approval for use just months later in July.
The news of the European review also raises chances of the British vaccine becoming the first to be approved in Europe for the disease caused by the novel coronavirus which has killed more than a million people globally.
… Thursday’s news also comes just weeks after several global trials of AZD1222 were halted due to an unexplained illness in a study participant. While most studies have resumed, U.S. trials are still on pause as regulators widened their probe, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
“This (review) does not mean that a conclusion can be reached yet on the vaccine’s safety and effectiveness, as much of the evidence is still to be submitted to the committee,” the EMA said.
Donald Trump Tests Positive for COVID-19: What is the Risk for Over-70s? – Newsweek
At 74 years old, the President is in a high-risk group, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It notes that people aged between 65 and 74 are five times more likely to be hospitalized by COVID-19 than someone aged between 18 and 29, and 90 times more likely to die from the virus.
“In general, your risk of getting severely ill from COVID-19 increases as you get older. In fact, 8 out of 10 COVID-19-related deaths reported in the United States have been among adults aged 65 years and older,” the CDC says.
Aged 50, First Lady Melania Trump is in an age group that is four times more likely to be hospitalized by the virus than 18 to 29-year-olds, and at a 30 times higher risk of death.
“The President’s profile would classify him as vulnerable. He is aged 74, and reportedly overweight. Many people in their 70s will also have further co-morbidities that increase the risks of a more severe illness,” Dr Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton in the U.K., said in a statement.
People with underlying health conditions are known to be more vulnerable to COVID-19, and Trump’s latest annual physical exam, which was carried out in June, found that the president is obese and has high blood pressure. However, it declared that the President “remains healthy.” He will also be able to rely on the best medical care possible.
Trump kept a busy public diary in the pandemic. Putin installed walk-through disinfectant tunnels – COVID-19 News
Over months of the coronavirus pandemic, US President Donald Trump has kept to a busy schedule, packed with campaign rallies and public events. The contrast with Russian President Vladimir Putin could not be more stark: The authoritarian leader Trump admires so much is living in a bubble.
For most of the pandemic, Putin has been following a strict work-from-home regimen, running the affairs of state largely by videoconference. And the Kremlin has taken extreme measures to guard the health of the man who has run Russia for two decades.
Guarding Putin’s health: Putin’s primary base during the pandemic, according to his press office and extensive state television coverage, has been Novo-Ogaryovo, his residence outside Moscow. As early as April, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov made it clear that new measures had been put in place to protect the president: Everyone meeting with Putin, he said, would be tested for Covid-19, and all appointments with the leader would be held with social distancing in place.
The Kremlin went farther than just social distancing. In June, Peskov confirmed that special disinfectant tunnels had been installed in the Kremlin and at Novo-Ogaryovo as a defense against the spread of the virus. The same month, Putin went ahead with holding a postponed Victory Day parade in the middle of the pandemic. Dozens of WWII veterans who sat next to the president on the stands had to quarantine for two weeks.
The next week is the critical phase in Trump’s illness. Here are the risks he faces. – New York Times
Older men are up to twice as likely to die from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, as women of the same age, according to an analysis by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Another study, published in Nature in August, found that this was because men produce a weaker immune response than do women.
Even though the risk of severe illness from Covid-19 increases with age, most people who contract it get well quickly with minimal symptoms.
Experts agree that the next week would be critical in determining the course of Mr. Trump’s illness.
If Mr. Trump does not develop symptoms, antibodies would appear 10 days after the onset of illness and he would recover, according to Dr. Hui at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Current estimates suggest that symptoms, if they appear, could do so in as quickly as two days or as long as 14 days after exposure to the virus.
If he develops mild symptoms such as a cough, fever or shortness of breath, it could take him a week to recover. A severe illness, which could mean developing lung lesions and pneumonia, could require hospitalization, possible ventilation, and months of treatment.
Gottlieb: Doctors ‘probably considering’ remdesivir for Trump – CNBC
White House doctors are “probably considering” antiviral drug remdesivir for President Donald Trump after he tested positive for coronavirus, Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC.
The former FDA chief in the Trump administration said in a “Squawk Box” interview, “Remdesivir is indicated for hospitalized patients. But there is thinking that it probably improves outcomes” when given earlier.
Trump, 74, tweeted at 12:54 a.m. ET that he and first lady Melania Trump, 50, tested positive for Covid-19, hours after the president said he would begin a quarantine process after White House advisor Hope Hicks, 31, tested positive for coronavirus.
- Trump tweeted overnight that he and the first lady tested positive for the coronavirus.
- Former President Woodrow Wilson became ill with the 1918 flu when he was in Paris in April 1919.
- For Wilson, the virus “took its toll on him,” said Howard Markel, a physician and medical historian at the University of Michigan.
About 1.4% of Amazon Workers Caught COVID, Compared to 2.2% of U.S. Public – Newsweek
Nearly 20,000 Amazon employees have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of Thursday, but the company says their overall infection rate is far below that suffered by the general U.S. public.
Amazon said that 19,816 employees had contracted the virus when announcing the results of a “thorough analysis of data on all 1,372,000 Amazon and Whole Foods Market front-line employees across the U.S. employed at any time from March 1 to September 19, 2020” in a blog post.
The company’s numbers indicate that around 1.44 percent of employees have contracted the virus, while the 7,277,352 cases confirmed in the U.S. by Johns Hopkins University represents about 2.2 percent of the country’s overall population.
“Based on this analysis, if the rate among Amazon and Whole Foods Market employees were the same as it is for the general population rate, we estimate that we would have seen 33,952 cases among our workforce,” the company wrote. “In reality, 19,816 employees have tested positive or been presumed positive for COVID-19—42% lower than the expected number.”
In a state-by-state breakdown of infection rates supplied by the company, in most cases Amazon employees showed fewer infections than would be expected when compared to Johns Hopkins statistics on infections among the general population.
However, there were some exceptions. Workers in Minnesota and West Virginia were infected at rates greater than what would be expected based on the overall population infection rates. In Kansas, Amazon’s infection rate was identical to the state’s general population rate.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Spanish ICU Adds Beds for Winter After ‘Terrible Avalanche’ of Patients Earlier This Year
Dutch COVID Death Toll Much Higher Than Reported in First Wave: Statistics Agency
Europe’s Worst Infection Hotspot Madrid Heads for Lockdown
Doctors Group Says Turkey ‘Hid the Truth’ by Reporting Only Those With COVID-19 Symptoms
Paris Could Be Put On ‘Maximum Alert’ as ICU Bed Occupancy Becomes Critical
Major outbreak at Northumbria University as 770 students test positive
Poland registers highest daily infection rise
Growth in [UK] Covid cases ‘may be levelling off’ – BBC {This would equate to around one in 500 people now having the virus in England, and also in Wales.]
Face Masks Mandatory Outdoors in Rome Region
Germany records highest number of new cases since April
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Trump campaign urges staffers to quarantine
GOP Sen. Mike Lee tests positive for coronavirus
Oklahoma Sees Record COVID Hospitalizations as ICUs at Near Capacity
Trump Chief of Staff Expects More Positive COVID Tests in the White House
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel Tests Positive for Coronavirus
Donald Trump Is the Oldest World Leader to Test Positive for Covid
NFL says Steelers-Titans game won’t be played in Week 4 after two more positive coronavirus tests
At least 11 people tested positive in August for Covid-19 at Secret Service training center
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
25 September 2020 ECRI’s WLI Modestly Declined
Final September 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves
August 2020 Headline Manufacturing New Orders Improve
September 2020 BLS Jobs Situation – Employment Grew 661,000 But Still Down 9,859,000 Year-to-Date
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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