Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined but remains in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline was immediate. In theory, this index is now indicating that in the second or third quarter of 2021 the economy should be in expansion year-over-year
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.
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__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 139.3, as the growth rate edged down to 3.5%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s recent performance, please see the chart below.
Review ECRI’s real-time track record.
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U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The August economy’s rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth improved but continues to show economic contraction.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July economy’s rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth declined and remains in contraction.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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