Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 13.0 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 11.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- US Leading Economic Index improving, but recession signal remains
- New wave of COVID-19 cases builds in US
- UK’s Integumen Unveils Prototype COVID-19 Breath Test
- HHS wants to test 30% of U.S. wastewater for the coronavirus as an ‘early warning system’
- U.S. vaccine program chief backs stricter rules for emergency use of COVID-19 shot
- Among HCPs, Nurses Most Likely to Get COVID-19
- Vindicated Covid-19 models warn pandemic is far from over
- Pfizer partner BioNTech sees no role for its vaccine in UK challenge trial
- Data Begin To Provide Some Answers On Pregnancy And The Pandemic
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 25 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 25 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 43,442 | 6,980,000 | 293,600 | 32,290,000 | 14.8% | 21.6% |
| Deaths** | 901 | 202,810 | 5,665 | 984,040 | 15.9% | 20.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.91* | 324.17* | ||||
* as of 22 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Why so many people are hopeful about an mRNA coronavirus vaccine – CNBC
Pfizer and biotech Moderna are two of the companies attempting to use messenger RNA, or mRNA, to produce their vaccines, a technology that has never before received regulatory approval.
US Leading Economic Index improving, but recession signal remains – The Conference Board
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States continued to improve in August, but a recession signal derived from the index has continued to flash since March. This signal, generated using the “3Ds” rule (depth, duration, and diffusion), is activated when certain criteria in the overall LEI and its many components are met. A large decline (depth) in the six-month growth rate (duration) of the LEI is an early indication of a turning point in the economy (black line). A third key metric, diffusion, indicates whether the majority of the LEI’s components are helping or hurting the overall index (purple dots in chart). Though there’s a tight relationship between past LEI recession signals and the official recession chronology,* it can be difficult to pinpoint when a recession will end in real time. However, business leaders can use the LEI’s recession signal as a guide: when that warning light goes off, the US may be on the cusp of exiting the COVID-19 recession.
*As defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
CDC: Among HCPs, Nurses Most Likely to Get COVID-19 – MedPage
Nursing was the most common occupation and residential care facilities were the most common reported job setting for healthcare professionals (HCPs) with COVID-19, CDC researchers found.
In a subset of six jurisdictions reporting occupational type or job setting for HCPs with COVID-19, 30% of infected HCPs were nurses — twice the proportion of nurses in the healthcare workforce (15%) — and two-thirds of cases were in nursing and residential care settings, reported Michelle Hughes, PhD, of the CDC, and colleagues in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
Similar to previously reported U.S. data, HCPs with COVID-19 who were male, age 65 or older, or nonwhite, or had underlying medical conditions, were particularly likely to have died.
The researchers cited workers in long-term care facilities as those most in need of attention during the pandemic.
Vindicated Covid-19 models warn pandemic is far from over – NBC
When the coronavirus pandemic hit the United States this year, scientific models forecasting hundreds of thousands of deaths were met by some people with derision.
The models, unfortunately, have been vindicated. And they’re providing fresh warnings that a recent uptick in numbers of cases could mean the U.S. death toll could almost double in the next four months.
“If we go back to March, at that time, we were saying if this thing is not handled very carefully, we could end up with 200,000 or 300,000 deaths,” said a coronavirus modeler, Alessandro Vespignani, director of Northeastern University’s Network Science Institute. “At that time, everyone was saying that’s impossible. I think we should use that perspective now, especially when we think about the future.”
… Now, a widely cited model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington suggests that the U.S. could total more than 378,000 coronavirus deaths by January.
U.S. vaccine program chief backs stricter rules for emergency use of COVID-19 shot – Reuters
The scientific head of the U.S. government program designed to speed development of COVID-19 vaccines said on Thursday he supports stricter rules to grant emergency use of new inoculations against the novel coronavirus.
Speaking at a virtual Town Hall with Black physicians and community leaders, Operation Warp Speed scientific lead Dr. Moncef Slaoui said he supports recommendations being drafted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that companies wait two months after the last administration of their vaccine before seeking emergency use authorization (EUA) of their products.
Operation Warp Speed already has recommended the vaccine candidates it is supporting observe “a two-months follow-up after completion of the immunization process before the company will consider filing for an emergency use authorization,” Slaoui said.
Concern is rising among public health experts and citizens that a vaccine could be rushed without proper safety checks, especially as the Nov. 3 presidential election nears.
Pfizer partner BioNTech sees no role for its vaccine in UK challenge trial – Reuters
Pfizer’s German development partner BioNTech on Thursday joined other leading COVID-19 vaccine developers in ruling out participation in British plans to test experimental inoculations by deliberately infecting trial volunteers.
“BioNTech’s vaccine candidate is not part of this study,” a spokeswoman said.
Britain is planning to host so-called “challenge trials”, the Financial Times cited people involved in the project as saying. Britain said it was working with partners on the potential for human challenge trials without commenting on a specific plan. [nL3N2GK3AK]
AstraZeneca and Sanofi and Moderna, among the leading vaccine developers, have said their vaccine candidates were not involved in the programme.
U.S. biotech firm Inovio Pharmaceuticals also said it was not involved while Johnson & Johnson said it was evaluating the potential benefit of a human challenge trial but would not comment on the British plans.
The World Health Organisation was not involved in such studies, a spokesman said on Thursday.
Data Begin To Provide Some Answers On Pregnancy And The Pandemic – NPR
… [The virus that causes COVID-19] seems to be able to cross the placenta and infect fetuses during pregnancy. However, the good news is that this doesn’t seem to happen very often, and there isn’t evidence that when this happens there is an association with birth defects the way we found with viruses like Zika.
… I [Dr. Denise Jamieson, chair of the Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics at Emory Healthcare} would not recommend delaying pregnancy. I think women can take measures to avoid COVID during pregnancy and to protect themselves during pregnancy and when to get pregnant is such a personal and complicated decision, and this pandemic will probably be with us for a while. I would not advise delaying pregnancy solely on the basis of the COVID pandemic.
I hope it hasn’t substantially reduced the joy of having a baby, but I do worry that with restrictions on visitation in the hospital, and then also the social isolation after women go home from the hospital, I do think it’s fundamentally changed the experience of having a baby. … I look forward to a day when the pandemic is over, and we have a safe, available, and effective vaccine, and we don’t have to social distance.
New wave of COVID-19 cases builds in US – The Hill
Confirmed COVID-19 cases are rising again in the United States, building a new crescendo of disease that is likely to exceed earlier waves of infection in a pandemic that has already killed more than 200,000 on U.S. soil.
As Americans venture back to school, to the workplace and — in spite of warnings from public health officials — to bars and restaurants, cases have begun to rise in the last two weeks. The United States has averaged about 40,000 new cases a day over the past week, up from a recent low of about 34,000 cases a day earlier this month.
The country is now averaging about the same number of new infections on a daily basis as it was in June, when case counts were building to an ominous peak. The average number of people who are dying on a daily basis stands at about 700, the same level as early July.
“We all basically have come back into the public domain. We are experiencing pandemic fatigue in a major way, and we’re seeing weddings, funerals, bars, restaurants, sporting events,” said Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist who runs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
[editor’s note: this should be considered an opinion piece as here is no data to prove the cause of the higher case count]
UK’s Integumen Unveils Prototype COVID-19 Breath Test – Medscape
Integumen, a British company that developed a system to detect the COVID-19 virus in waste water, said the same technology could be deployed in a personalised breath test that could become an effective tool in fighting the pandemic.
AIM-listed Integumen has formed a consortium with water contamination monitoring company Modern Water and Avacta and Aptamer Group, which will supply COVID-19 binding agents for the tests, to adapt its technology to the new uses.
U.S. group Dell Technologies has also joined to provide data services, Integumen said at its annual meeting on Thursday.
The tests detect the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 in real time by analysing a sample of breath or waste water.
The company has designed, built and tested a prototype device, which can analyse a sample of breath to detect a high load of the virus.
Integumen said the device could be used for instant, real-time testing, with negative results used for a 24-hour digital health pass that could be combined with QR codes to allow entry into work locations, social locations and public transport.
HHS wants to test 30% of U.S. wastewater for the coronavirus as an ‘early warning system’ – CNBC
- The Department of Health and Human Services is seeking bids from contractors that can carry out a plan to test up to 30% of the country’s wastewater to act as an “early warning system” for coronavirus outbreaks.
- The contract notice from HHS represents a potentially massive expansion of such efforts coordinated on a national level.
- The HHS-backed initiative will begin by assembling a network of about 100 wastewater treatment plants across 42 states to establish wastewater coronavirus surveillance.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Hong Kong Disneyland reopens for second time as COVID-19 cases near zero
COVID Rising Again in Sweden Amid Return to ‘Hugs and Parties’: PM
Israel will prohibit citizens from traveling abroad in some instances as cases surge.
Virus postpones Rio de Janeiro’s Carnival for the first time in a century
WHO says 2 million coronavirus deaths is ‘not impossible’ as world approaches 1 million
University students in Scotland banned from bars and restaurants amid coronavirus spike
Poland sees record spike in coronavirus cases
RUSSIA SEES HIGHEST DAILY RISE IN INFECTIONS SINCE JUNE
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
AstraZeneca still waiting for FDA go-ahead to resume U.S. trial
AstraZeneca wins partial immunity from side effects claims in EU vaccine deal
“That’s what college kids do”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) suggested a “bill of rights” to protect college students against expulsion for violating social-distancing rules at parties.
The city council in Norman, Oklahoma, home to the University of Oklahoma, expanded the definition of “public setting” to include private homes and residences where more than 25 people gather.
Pac-12 Reversal: Football To Start In November
Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam And Wife Test Positive For Coronavirus
CDC forecasts additional 20,000 coronavirus deaths by Oct. 17
Birx: Not Considering Leaving Coronavirus Task Force
Glycans in SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Play Key Role in Binding to Host Cells
COVID-19 Outbreak at Oregon Seafood Plant, Nearly 100 Workers Test Positive
Herd Immunity Study Rand Paul Cited Against Fauci Refutes Senetor’s Claims
North Dakota Coronavirus Cases Soar As State Rescinds Quarantine Order
Florida is lifting all state restrictions for restaurants and other businesses, the governor said.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
18 September 2020 ECRI’s WLI Moves Higher Into Expansion
Headline Durable Goods New Orders Improved Again In August 2020
Rail Week Ending 19 September 2020 – Contraction Continues But Remains On An Improving Trendline
How And When Will We Know That A COVID-19 Vaccine Is Safe And Effective?
How The Coronavirus Spreads Through The Air: 5 Essential Reads
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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