Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 13.4 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 14.7 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;

• Houston study: More contagious coronavirus strain now dominates
• It May Take Several Tries to Find Right COVID-19 Vaccine
• Vets Study Casts Doubt on Accepted COVID-19 Risk Factors
• Tennessee Releases Data Showing Significant Learning Loss Among K-12 Students
• It’s another dastardly effect of the pandemic: People are losing their hair.
• We’re missing the real story on mail-in ballots
• Feared coronavirus outbreaks in schools yet to arrive
• Rapid, cheap home tests: Companies attempt to make coronavirus tests widely available
• Canada ‘bets the farm’ on big spending as second wave threatens economic recovery
• FDA Authorizes First Point-of-Care Antibody Test for COVID-19

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The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.

My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.

The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.

The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 24 September 2020:

z coronavirus.png​

* as of 20 Sep 2020

** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number

*** red color indicates record number

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

Federal Coronavirus Funding By U.S. State – Statista

The coronavirus pandemic has caused economic devastation of historic proportions across the United States with unemployment swiftly rising to nearly 15 percent after it erupted, a fifth of households becoming food insecure and tens of millions of tenants suddenly finding themselves facing eviction. The level of economic carnage reached a level not seen in the U.S. since the Great Depression and policymakers set out to enact several bills to support individuals, businesses and local governments. That saw some $1.7 trillion shelled out in the form of loans or federal programs and the effort was generally successful, seeing unemployment drop back to 8.4 percent by early September. Meanwhile, the CDC moved to give tenants protection by implementing an eviction moratorium.

A new analysis by the Peterson Foundation took a look at how funding has been distributed by state and this infographic provides an overview of its findings. The funding is based on 13 different coronavirus relief programs ranging from the Paycheck Protection Program to FEMA Disaster Relief funding up to September 14th. Out of all states, California has received the highest amount of funding at just over $231 billion while New York and Texas had the second and third-highest amount at $132.8 billion and $124.7 billion, respectively. The lowest funding was provided to Wyoming and Vermont, both of which still had the lowest number of coronavirus cases in the country as of September 21st.

You will find more infographics at Statista

When will children get a COVID-19 vaccine? It’s going to be a while – USA Today

Children are not included in the ongoing trials for a COVID-19 vaccine, so it’s likely to be well into next year or beyond before they’ll be able to get vaccinated against the coronavirus that causes the disease.

Some say that’s not a problem because the vast majority of children don’t get severely ill from COVID-19.

Others argue that kids can still pass on the virus – to teachers, parents, grandparents – and that we won’t be able to truly end the pandemic without vaccinating children.

In a Monday conversation with reporters, Emory University School of Medicine pediatric infectious disease specialist Dr. Evan Anderson called for a rapid expansion of clinical trials to include children, ideally providing results in time for them to be vaccinated before the 2021 school year.

… Dr. Barry Bloom, an immunologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said he thinks it’s better to wait until trials in adults have shown which candidate vaccine is likely the safest for children.

Then, Bloom said, trials should be launched first in areas that have good record-keeping on childhood vaccinations. Good data, he said, is essential to keep track of any side effects from the vaccines.

Houston study: More contagious coronavirus strain now dominates – Reuters

The first study to analyze the structure of the novel coronavirus from two waves of infection in a major city found that a more contagious strain dominates recent samples, researchers from Houston Methodist Hospital said on Wednesday.

They examined more than 5,000 genomes from viruses recovered in the earliest phase of the pandemic in Houston, an ethnically diverse city of 7 million, and from an ongoing more recent wave of infections.

The study, which has not yet been reviewed by outside experts, found that nearly all strains in the second wave had a mutation, known as D614G, which has been shown to increase the number of “spikes” on the crown-shaped virus.

…But they found little evidence that mutations in the virus have made it deadlier, noting that severity of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, was more strongly linked to patients’ underlying medical conditions and genetics.

[editor’s note: you should also read: Massive genetic study shows coronavirus mutating and potentially evolving amid rapid U.S. spread]

FDA Authorizes First Point-of-Care Antibody Test for COVID-19 – FDA

Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for the first serology (antibody) point-of-care (POC) test for COVID-19. The Assure COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test Device was first authorized for emergency use by certain labs in July 2020 to help identify individuals with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, indicating recent or prior COVID-19 infection. Today, that EUA is being reissued to authorize the test for POC use using fingerstick blood samples. This authorization means that fingerstick blood samples can now be tested in POC settings like doctor’s offices, hospitals, urgent care centers and emergency rooms rather than having to be sent to a central lab for testing.

“Authorizing point-of-care serology tests will enable more timely and convenient results for individuals who want to understand if they have previously been infected with the virus that causes COVID-19,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “Until today, serology test samples were generally only able to be evaluated in a central lab, which can be time consuming and use additional resources to transport samples and run the test. As more and more point-of-care serology tests are authorized, they will help conserve those resources and may help reduce processing time for other types of COVID-19 tests, as less time is spent on serology tests.”

Nearly 50 serology tests have been granted an EUA since the start of the pandemic. The Assure test is a lateral flow assay and is authorized for use with venous whole blood, serum, plasma and fingerstick whole blood. This serology POC test, unlike POC COVID-19 diagnostic tests, uses a blood sample from the fingertip to run the test.

Canada ‘bets the farm’ on big spending as second wave threatens economic recovery – Reuters

Canada’s vow to double down on pandemic-related spending to keep the economic recovery under way in the face of a second wave of COVID-19 infections will support activity but raises questions over the burgeoning deficit, economists say.

The Liberal government on Wednesday made sweeping promises of major new investments and policy initiatives saying “this is not the time for austerity”, while giving few details on how those plans would be financed and at what cost.

An economic update, including fiscal projections, will be released later this fall, it said.

“It seems like they’ve bet the farm and doubled down on spending,” said Ian Lee, associate professor of management at Ottawa’s Carleton University. “The commitments certainly suggest that the budget deficit is going to become much larger.”

In a rare national address, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada has entered a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and warned the country was on the brink of a surge in cases if people did not follow public health guidelines.

Rapid, cheap home tests: Companies attempt to make coronavirus tests widely available – USA Today

Nearly two months after federal regulators unveiled rules for at-home coronavirus tests, no company has federal approval to sell these fast and cheap tests even though the technology is ready.

Molecular PCR tests processed at medical labs remain the standard of accurate testing, but they are more expensive and results can take days to process.

Antigen tests are less expensive, plentiful and deliver results in minutes. Three companies gained Food and Drug Administration authorization to sell antigen testing instruments to labs or clinics. A fourth company, Abbott Laboratories, won approval to market a $5 rapid, credit card-sized test administered by a health care professional.

Carlos-Henri Ferré, E25Bio’s director of operations and communications

“If we’re talking about a screening device, the parameters don’t need to be the same as an ultimate diagnostic test,” he said. “We hope the (FDA’s) language would change and reflect what we’re creating, which is a screening tool for public health.”

But no company has been cleared to sell tests directly to consumers for widespread screening – a step some believe is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19, as more than 200,000 Americans have died and people worry about safely returning to work, school, travel or sporting events.

“The way to get this under control is if people find out as early as possible they are infected and then quarantine from others,” said Dr. Yukari Manabe, a Johns Hopkins University professor of medicine.

The United States needs 30 million tests a week to adequately track the virus and protect vulnerable residents, according to the Rockefeller Foundation. Labs have worked round the clock to gradually bring more tests to Americans over the past six months. Still, the nation reached 1 million daily tests for the first time last week, about one quarter of Rockefeller’s goal of more than 4 million tests each day, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

Feared coronavirus outbreaks in schools yet to arrive, early data shows – Washington Post

Thousands of students and teachers have become sick with the coronavirus since schools began opening last month, but public health experts have found little evidence that the virus is spreading inside buildings, and the rates of infection are far below what is found in the surrounding communities.

This early evidence, experts say, suggests that opening schools may not be as risky as many have feared and could guide administrators as they chart the rest of what is already an unprecedented school year.

“Everyone had a fear there would be explosive outbreaks of transmission in the schools. In colleges, there have been. We have to say that, to date, we have not seen those in the younger kids, and that is a really important observation,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Vets Study Casts Doubt on Accepted COVID-19 Risk Factors – MedPage

[editor’s note: another study contradicting other studies]

Neither race/ethnicity nor obesity found to contribute to mortality

Among more than 10,000 U.S. veterans testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, older age, high regional COVID-19 disease burden, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score, and abnormalities in certain blood tests were significantly associated with mortality after adjustment.

However, many previously reported risk factors, including obesity, Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension, and smoking, were not significantly associated with mortality, George Ioannou, BMBCh, of Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health System in Seattle, and colleagues reported in JAMA Network Open.

“Other risk factors for mortality included select preexisting comorbid conditions (i.e., heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and cirrhosis) and presenting symptoms (i.e., fever and dyspnea),” they added.

The authors hypothesized that overall disease burden, rather than individual risk factors, may be more helpful, as they observed “strong associations” with CCI score and all measured outcomes.

The authors noted that while multiple risk factors have been reported with both severe illness and death, most prior studies earlier in the pandemic “did not include multivariable adjustment to identify independent risk factors,” were local or regional rather than national populations, and did not compare patients who tested positive with those who tested negative to determine “excess risk” tied to SARS-CoV-2 infection itself versus underlying conditions in those who have SARS-CoV-2 infection, they said.

We’re missing the real story on mail-in ballots – The Hill

But mail-in voter fraud is a red herring that’s pulling attention from a far more serious problem. Thousands of jurisdictions nationwide will struggle to collect and count ballots in a timely and orderly fashion.

The reason is no mystery. COVID-19 will trigger tidal waves of mail-in ballots that could overwhelm town, county and state election offices that simply aren’t equipped to handle them. Elected officials at every level — from Congress to governors to the smallest town councils — must dramatically ramp up preparations, starting immediately, to ensure an election process the American public will accept as transparent and fair.

How big a shift toward vote-by-mail is coming? This year’s primary elections — most of which occurred after the coronavirus began sweeping the nation — give us clues. States that conducted their primaries after March 17 averaged receiving 51 percent of all ballots by mail, compared to 13 percent before. Georgia’s primary saw a 2,500 percent increase in absentee ballots from the 2016 primary.

Six in 10 Americans want to vote early this fall (either in person at early-voting sites or by placing ballots in designated drop boxes or U.S. mailboxes), according to a recent Washington Post-University of Maryland poll. That’s roughly a 50 percent increase from the 2016 general election. Some analysts predict a much larger increase.

A few U.S. states have universal mail-in voting, and others have significant experience handling large volumes of mail-in or absentee ballots. But most don’t, as evidenced by the 22 states that received fewer than 7 percent of all ballots by mail in the last presidential election. Unless they bulk up their resources quickly, their election systems could collapse into chaos.

“Reviewing, processing, and tallying ballots in most states is a time-intensive and often manual process,” says a study by the Bipartisan Policy Center. “In many states, election systems are simply not set up to accommodate the expected increase in people voting by mail, and election officials will be overwhelmed.”

It May Take Several Tries to Find Right COVID-19 Vaccine – Medspace

It may take several tries to find the right vaccine for COVID-19, the Pan American Health Organization’s (PAHO) director Carissa Etienne said on Wednesday, as she urged countries to begin preparing vaccination plans.

Global reported infections of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, are climbing toward 32 million, according to a Reuters tally, while deaths approach 1 million. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are reporting about a million new infections every two weeks.

“We hope scientists do uncover an effective vaccine that offers lasting protection against COVID but it may take a few tries before we find the right one,” Etienne said during PAHO’s weekly virtual press conference.

“Early vaccines may only provide partial protection or may not work for everyone. We don’t yet know which vaccine will be found safe and effective and how it will work,” she said.

It’s another dastardly effect of the pandemic: People are losing their hair. – New York Times

Many Covid-19 survivors are reporting that several months after contracting the virus, they began shedding startling amounts of hair. Doctors, too, are seeing many more patients with hair loss, affecting both people who had the virus and those who never became sick.

The likely reason, they say, is stress — not from the virus itself, but from the physiological stress of fighting it off or the emotional stress of job loss, financial strain, deaths of family members or other devastating pandemic-related developments.

“There’s many, many stresses in many ways surrounding this pandemic, and we’re still seeing hair loss because a lot of the stress hasn’t gone away,” said Dr. Shilpi Khetarpal, an associate professor of dermatology at the Cleveland Clinic.

There are two types of hair loss the pandemic seems to be triggering, doctors say.

In one condition, called telogen effluvium, people shed much more than the typical 50-to-100 hairs per day, usually beginning several months after a stressful experience.

The other condition is alopecia areata, in which the immune system attacks hair follicles, usually starting with a patch of hair on the scalp or beard. Some people, especially Covid-19 patients who experienced an elevated immune response, may progress quickly from one or two bald patches to losing hair all over the body, including eyebrows and eyelashes, doctors say.

Retailers have started paying rent again but are still fighting with their landlords – CNBC

• Less than a third of retail companies paid at least 75% of June rent, according to a study by the National Retail Federation and the investment bank PJ Solomon.
• By July, the percentage of rent payers had almost doubled to 65%, it said.
• Failure to pay rent in full is creating tension between retailers and landlords. In some instances, the disputes wind up in court.
• “I think we will see more litigation,” said one lawyer specializing in retail.

Google Maps will show Covid-19 outbreaks – CNBC

• Google on Wednesday announced a new feature in Google Maps that will show you how bad the Covid-19 outbreak is around the world.
• This means you can open Google Maps to see how bad the outbreak is in your area, which might be particularly compelling given some predictions it could worsen in the fall and winter.
• The feature is rolling out for iPhones and Android phones this week. That means you might not see it today, but you should in the coming days. Just keep looking for a Google Maps update.

Tennessee Releases Data Showing Significant Learning Loss Among K-12 Students – TN

Tennessee Governor Bill Lee and the Tennessee Department of Education today released estimated data regarding learning loss for Tennessee students resulting from COVID-19 school closures through the summer months. Preliminary data projects an estimated 50% decrease in proficiency rates in 3rd grade reading and a projected 65% decrease in proficiency in math.

“This data highlights the immense challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic has created for our students and educators,” said Gov. Lee. “The vast majority of students learn best in-person with their teacher, and we’ll continue to help provide a safe environment for Tennessee students to get their educational journeys back on track.”

While many students traditionally experience learning loss over the summer, projections show that learning loss from March school closures through the summer is expected to be 2.5 times that of a normal summer rate. Projections were developed in partnership with national researchers using historical, Tennessee-specific data to provide additional learning loss estimates based on the extended school closures.

“We know that increased time away from school has negative implications for students, which is compounded during extended building closures,” said Tennessee Commissioner of Education Penny Schwinn. “The department is focused on ensuring we provide essential services and resources to mitigate learning loss and keep students on a path to success this new school year.”

The learning loss impacts early grades greater than later grades, placing these students further behind in the learning trajectory as they progress through school. Students with lower proficiency rates are also disproportionately impacted by learning loss, further exacerbating existing achievement gaps.

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Covid-19: UK volunteers could be given virus to test vaccine

Madrid Pleads for More Doctors, Police as Coronavirus Cases Surge

Germany’s COVID Expert Says Pandemic Will ‘Only Really Start Now’

Israel will tighten its national lockdown as infection rates soar.

WHO’s preliminary analysis suggests that over 80% of coronavirus cases in the African countries are asymptomatic

Beijing “punishes” 1,100 officials over virus prevention measures

Budapest welcomes 15,500 fans for UEFA Super Cup amid growing coronavirus fears

The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

The FDA has reportedly proposed stricter emergency authorization standards, which are now under review by the White House Office of Management and Budget.

CDC confirmed that COVID-19 incidence was highest in twenty-somethings during the summer.

This year’s New Year’s Eve celebration in Times Square is going virtual with some in-person help with the iconic Ball Drop.

Fewer Students Are Going To Community College, Despite High Unemployment

Missouri Governor And Wife Test Positive For The Coronavirus

United offering coronavirus tests to passengers flying to Hawaii [no quarantine in Hawaii]

Business groups pushing for access to coronavirus vaccine for workers

COVID-19 Reinfections Occur, but Remain Rare

Portland Denies Proud Boys Permit as City Prepares For Protest Violence

Four NYC Neighborhoods Make Up 20% of New Coronavirus Cases in City

Cuomo is forming a panel to review federally authorized vaccines, citing concerns the process has become politicized.

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

September 2020 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Marginally Declines But Remains In Expansion

August 2020 Headline New Home Sales Continues To Grow

19 September 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Declined

Covid-19 And The Turbulent History Of Globalization

Coronavirus Vaccine: Why It’s Important To Know What’s In The Placebo

Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts

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