Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 1.3 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 6.1 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- To find a vaccine for COVID-19, will we have to deliberately infect people?
- Halloween 2020 and Covid-19
- COVID Could Be Transmissible From Animals to Humans and Vice Versa
- Millennials and Gen Z are spreading coronavirus—but not because of parties and bars
- Does Virus Dose or Load Predict How Sick You Get With COVID-19?
- A new Canadian Covid-19 gargle test ‘one of the first of its kind’ in the world
- Updated forecast predicts fewer US coronavirus deaths by January 1
- What happens if you catch flu and COVID-19 at the same time?
- EMA Backs Dexamethasone for Severe COVID-19 After Data Review
- Kids With COVID-19, Seasonal Flu Hospitalized at Similar Rates
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases and deaths likely should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 19 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 19 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 39,911 | 6,720,000 | 288,630 | 30,540,000 | 13.8% | 22.0% |
| Deaths** | 956 | 198,589 | 5,947 | 952,724 | 16.1% | 20.8% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.23* | 305.27* | ||||
* as of 15 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Kids With COVID-19, Seasonal Flu Hospitalized at Similar Rates – Medpage
- There were no statistically significant differences in rates of hospitalization, intensive care unit admissions, and use of mechanical ventilator support between children hospitalized with COVID-19 and those hospitalized with seasonal influenza, according to a retrospective study.
- Note that COVID-19 and seasonal influenza prevention strategies are important for children, and getting an influenza vaccination is recommended for all children ages 6 months and older.
Millennials and Gen Z are spreading coronavirus—but not because of parties and bars – National Geographic
Younger generations are blamed for the pandemic’s spread, but also face the brunt of the transmission risk that comes with keeping the economy going.
… An August 18 briefing from the World Health Organization announced that people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s are now driving the virus’s spread, but that’s because most are just trying to do their jobs.
“In the past few decades, we’ve seen a shift in the economy toward more service jobs,” including retail, food service, hospitality, and childcare, says Sharon Sassler, a professor of policy analysis and management at Cornell University. “Young people in those service jobs are now at a greater risk of being exposed.” What’s more, emerging research is confirming what many experts have observed with natural disasters: economic vulnerability severely impairs a person’s ability to cope with catastrophe, and this burden falls heavily on younger generations.
… Before the pandemic hit, affluent Americans moved around their cities—and beyond—far more than working-class folks. But by April, those statistics switched. According to an extensive analysis of anonymized cell phone data, 25 percent more people in wealthy areas were staying home completely, while 10 percent more low-wage earners were traveling outside their usual environs.
“The pandemic has been emphasizing a uniquely American problem,” says Kimbrough. “Our social safety net has a lot of holes.”
[editor’s note: this think piece deserves a full read]
New study shows dangers of in-flight COVID-19 transmission – The Hill
One person with COVID-19 infected 15 others during a long-haul flight from London to Vietnam in early March, according to a new analysis.
The study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which was released ahead of its final publication in November, is one of the first to analyze the dangers of in-flight transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
While the airline industry has judged the risk for in-flight transmission to be very low, the researchers noted that long flights in particular have become a matter of increasing concern as many countries have started lifting flight restrictions despite ongoing the ongoing pandemic.
The researchers identified a 27-year-old woman in business class as the primary source of the outbreak. The woman first developed a sore throat and cough on Feb. 29. She boarded the plane March 1, and continued to experience those symptoms throughout the 10-hour flight.
… The most likely route of transmission during the flight is aerosol or droplet transmission, the researchers found, particularly for people seated in business class. Contact with the infected woman might also have occurred outside the airplane at the airport, in particular among business class passengers in the pre-departure lounge area or during boarding.
Contact with the two economy class cases might have occurred after arrival during immigration or at baggage claim.
The researchers said the role of fomites and on-board surfaces like tray tables or toilets remains unknown. Airline crew often use business class toilets while on board, which might explain the case among the crew serving in economy class, because no other potential source of infection could be established.
COVID Could Be Transmissible From Animals to Humans and Vice Versa – Newsweek
Results from a Dutch scientific study may help prove that the coronavirus can travel between animals and humans.
The origin of the coronavirus has been a matter of question since the pandemic began. Initial reports claimed it began in a Chinese wet market where animals, such as pangolins and bats, were sold as food. While those claims were not proven, results from the Dutch study claim to provide the first proof that COVID-19 is transmissible between humans and animals.
Researchers studied 16 mink farms in the Netherlands, including 720,000 animals and 97 humans. “Due to longitudinal follow up of the first 4 farms, we have strong evidence that at least two people on those farms were infected by minks,” the study read. “Unfortunately, based on our research we cannot make definite conclusions on the direction of most of the infections, so we do not know the total number of people that were infected by minks.”
Does Virus Dose or Load Predict How Sick You Get With COVID-19? – MedPage
Cruise ship passengers who embarked from the coast of Argentina in mid-March were unaware that they were living in a COVID-19 hotspot for more than a week after the ship departed.
The reason why these passengers were oblivious? Because a majority of the cruise ship’s cases were asymptomatic.
Researchers are now pointing to this cruise ship outbreak, in which all passengers were provided surgical masks, as evidence that universal masking may result in a higher proportion of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. Other outbreaks of mostly asymptomatic cases where widespread masking was implemented, in places like jails and meatpacking plants, provide epidemiological data that masks could reduce viral inoculum — and as a result, decrease the severity of illness.
Writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, Monica Gandhi, MD, and George Rutherford, MD, of the University of California in San Francisco, hypothesized that widespread population masking may act as a sort of “variolation,” exposing individuals to a smaller amount of viral particles and producing an immune response.
Gandhi told MedPage Today that the viral inoculum, or the initial dose of virus that a patient takes in, is one likely determinant of ultimate illness severity. That’s separate from patients’ subsequent viral load, the level of replicating virus as measured by copies per mL.
The “variolation” hypothesis holds that, at some level, the inoculum overwhelms the immune system, leading to serious illness. With less than that (and the threshold may vary from one person to the next), the individual successfully fights off the infection, with mild or no clinical illness.
What happens if you catch flu and COVID-19 at the same time? – National Geographic
Two infectious disease experts explain why this is not the year to blow off your flu shot.
… The symptoms for flu and COVID-19 are so similar that one of the challenges we’re dealing with this year is diagnosing people correctly and quickly. Even if you have mild symptoms, don’t attempt to ride out a virus on your own, and don’t assume that coughing is the only clue you’ve got COVID-19. You should contact your doctor if you have body aches, fever, a sore throat, or respiratory symptoms so you can be tested for COVID-19. The list of warning signs for the coronavirus is continually expanding and now includes loss of taste or smell, nausea, diarrhea, or even swollen red toes.
It’s important to know which infection you have. With the flu, your doctor can prescribe an antiviral medication. But if you have COVID-19, your doctor will help you decide if you need to go to the hospital for severe symptoms where you might be prescribed steroids or other experimental medications. Plus, you’ll have to be quarantined to avoid transmitting it to others.
… No one can ever predict how severe a flu season will be. But there has been some good news from southern countries, such as Australia, New Zealand, and Chile, where the flu season is just ending. The rates of flu there were surprisingly low. The reason is that these governments implemented such effective strategies to control the coronavirus—social distancing, hand washing, and mask-wearing—that the flu didn’t get the chance to take hold. Melbourne, Australia, for example, is again under lockdown.
Since children are typically the biggest spreaders of flu, this means school closures also will help stop transmission. Don’t get a false sense of confidence—even if you’re being careful and following your local health guidance. If you’re a responsible human being, you still need to get a flu shot, because you could pass the disease on to a more vulnerable person who could die from it.
EMA Backs Dexamethasone for Severe COVID-19 After Data Review – Medscape
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has endorsed the use of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 on oxygen or mechanical ventilation, following a review of the RECOVERY study by the agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use.
Dexamethasone can be considered a treatment option for adults and adolescents (12 years or older, weighing at least 40 kg) with SARS-CoV-2 infection who require supplemental oxygen therapy, the EMA said.
Dexamethasone can be given by mouth, injection, or infusion. In all cases, the recommended dose in adults and adolescents is 6 mg once daily for up to 10 days.
Case Report Links Parkinson’s Disease to COVID-19 – MedPage
Parkinson’s symptoms emerged after patient was hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2
A 45-year-old Israeli man was diagnosed with probable Parkinson’s disease several months after being hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
… The case serves as a real-life example of theories postulated about viruses like SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of Parkinson’s disease, noted K. Ray Chaudhuri, MD, DSc, of King’s College London in England, who wasn’t involved with the case.
“Historically, the influenza epidemic of 1918 was associated with post-encephalitic parkinsonism,” Chaudhuri told MedPage Today. “HIV, another RNA virus like COVID-19, has also been associated with basal ganglia damage.”
The patient was hospitalized on March 17 for dry cough and muscle pain and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on admission, the researchers reported. A few days before being hospitalized, he noticed a loss of smell. His previous medical history included hypertension and asthma.
… “The temporal association between the episode of SARS-CoV-2 infection and parkinsonian symptoms, which appeared during the acute infection, is intriguing,” Cohen and co-authors observed.
Before the patient’s admission to the neurology department, he had tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 on two occasions; he then was found positive for antibodies in serum, but negative in CSF, they noted. “Nonetheless, we cannot exclude the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 entered the central nervous system, particularly in view of the olfactory involvement and borderline pleocytosis.”
Updated forecast predicts fewer US coronavirus deaths by January 1 – COVID19data
An influential coronavirus model has updated its forecast for January, predicting a “most likely” scenario of 378,321 US deaths by January 1 – a drop compared to the estimation just a week ago.
The new Covid-19 forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington projects 36,769 fewer deaths than it did last week. In that earlier prediction, it forecast 415,090 US deaths from the coronavirus.
“This decline is driven by steeper than expected declines seen in deaths in several states. In our model, these declines push out further into January and February the expected seasonal surge, reducing the number of deaths expected by January 1,” the IHME explained.
“We expect over 3,000 deaths per day by the end of December. Between now and January 1 we expect approximately 180,000 deaths.”Even fewer people would die if universal mask mandates were put in place, IHME said – an estimated 263,483 people. But if current mandates are eased, the number of projected deaths soars to 445,605.
If mandates are eased, the IHME calculates that 8,571 people would die every day in the US by Jan. 1. Currently, the model projects 3,268 daily deaths – and that would tumble to 1,322 if universal mask use were in place.
“Even if herd immunity were to occur at a low level, such as 40% (the level seen in Mexico City now) with cumulative infections, by January 1, the US epidemic would only be less than half over,” the IHME notes.
A new Canadian Covid-19 gargle test ‘one of the first of its kind’ in the world, doctor says – CNN
Most children in British Columbia can say goodbye to those icky swabs and uncomfortable Covid-19 tests as the Canadian province launches a new gargle method for students ages 4 to 19.
“It is one of the first of its kind around the world,” said Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer, at a press conference Thursday.
The B.C. Centre for Disease Control says the new test is just as accurate as tests using a nasal swab and is much easier to administer for children.
The announcement comes at a time when testing is in high demand: Canada has seen a doubling of new daily cases in the last month. And while experts are still looking into the role children play in Covid-19 transmission, a recent report suggests they can — and do — spread the virus, even when they have mild or no symptoms.
“This is a new saline gargle where you put a little bit of normal saline, so sterile water, in your mouth and you swish it around a little bit and you spit it into a little tube and that’s an easier way to collect it for young people,” said Dr. Henry.
B.C. public health officials say they compared test results in both children and adults and found the rate of Covid-19 detection was very similar between the nasal swab and the new gargle test.
Halloween 2020 and Covid-19: What is changing this year? – CNBC
Health experts are urging caution and care during Halloween, asking that people avoid large parties and events and stay safe while trick-or-treating. Some organizations have already canceled their October events, while others are working to move the fun online.
“It’s very hard for me to figure out how you’re going to do the normal trick-or-treating, the normal Halloween,” said Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, a professor of pediatric infectious diseases and health research and policy at Stanford Health Care. “Now, that said … people can be creative.”
Many areas have not yet released guidelines or restrictions on Halloween events, but restrictions around the holiday are likely to be in line with other safety guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and include recommendations for social distancing and masking.
So far, the CDC has not released specific guidance for Halloween during the pandemic, though a bipartisan group of 30 members of Congress recently wrote to CDC Director Robert Redfield and asked him to “include considerations related to Covid-19” in the center’s standard Halloween safety guidance, according to The Hill.
Maldonado said she believes trick-or-treating could be done safely, but only if people are careful to distance and wear cloth face coverings.
To find a vaccine for COVID-19, will we have to deliberately infect people? – National Geographic
With no known treatment for COVID-19, is it ethical to inject participants with a virus that’s potentially lethal or might cause lasting organ damage and neurological problems? Can trials likely based on tests in the young and the healthy provide an accurate picture of a vaccine’s effectiveness in the elderly and vulnerable? How can volunteers give informed consent, a federal regulatory requirement for human research trials, when the full impacts of the new virus remain unknown? And would challenge trials really lead to a vaccine more quickly?
Those who support challenge trials tend to disbelieve the rosy scenario presented publicly by the Trump administration that a vaccine could be just around the corner. Vaccine development remains a perilous endeavor. Things can go wrong, a point underscored by the recent temporary halt of AstraZeneca’s clinical field trials after a participant became ill. The record for the speediest vaccine ever developed it still held by the mumps vaccine, approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 1967. That took four years.
Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at New York University, and Stanley Plotkin, an emeritus professor of vaccinology at the University of Pennsylvania, co-authored a paper supporting challenge trials published in the journal Vaccine. They argued that these tests were essential, in such extraordinary times, as a backup plan.
[editor’s note: worth a complete read]
Coronavirus and luxury retail: Shopping for used Hermes, Cartier in Covid era – CNBC
- The luxury market has taken a big hit during the pandemic, and the mega-merger between Tiffany’s and LVMH recently fell apart.
- Used apparel and accessories start-ups The RealReal and ThredUp are rebuilding business models to deal with Covid-19 requirements.
- Resale experiments at department stores like Macy’s are underway and its CEO says luxury is a bright spot amid a bleak retail landscape, while Walmart also has a new deal with ThredUp.
- Luxury shopping is a big consumer prize: Amazon just announced its entry, Amazon Luxury Stores.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
In South Korea, Covid-19 comes with another risk: online bullying.
Argentina’s outbreak moves beyond Buenos Aires and grows more severe.
The Sicilian town of Corleone adds restrictions after cases are linked to a large wedding.
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
President Of Guatemala Tests Positive For COVID-19
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Trade As A Tool For An Efficient Recovery
Financial Hardship Following Hurricane Harvey
What Does The World Make Of America’s Covid-19 Response?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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