Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 2.9 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 17.1 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Global coronavirus cases surpass 30 million
- Moderna to seek limited emergency use of COVID-19 vaccine if data shows high efficacy
- Pfizer Vaccine Trial Bets on Early Win Against Coronavirus, Documents Show
- Nursing Homes Given Federal Go-Ahead To Allow More Visitors
- C.D.C. reverses its guidance on testing for people who were exposed to the virus and aren’t showing symptoms
- Rich Countries Have Bought up the Bulk of Covid-19 Vaccines
- Health workers make up 1 in 7 reported coronavirus infections, WHO says
- Internal AstraZeneca safety report sheds light on neurological condition suffered by vaccine trial participant
- An intranasal povidone-iodine nasal antiseptic was able to rapidly inactivate COVID-19 in an in vitro lab study
- COVID-19 Wiped Out the Flu Around the World This Year
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases and deaths likely should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 18 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 18 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 39,604 | 6,670,000 | 285,684 | 30,210,000 | 13.9% | 22.1% |
| Deaths** | 831 | 197,633 | 5,207 | 946,665 | 16.0% | 20.9% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.39* | 292.40* | ||||
* as of 11 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Rich Countries Have Bought up the Bulk of Covid-19 Vaccines – Statista
According to analysis by charity Oxfam, “wealthy nations representing just 13 percent of the world’s population have already cornered 51 percent of the promised doses of leading Covid-19 vaccine candidates”. Globally, deals have been agreed on for a total of 5.3 billion doses of vaccines currently in the final phase of clinical trials – of which there are currently five. The lion’s share of which, 2.7 billion has gone to countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan.
As covered in this infographic, Oxfam expects this to mean that “even in the extremely unlikely event that all five vaccines succeed, 61 percent of the world’s population will not have a vaccine until at least 2022. It’s far more likely some of these experiments will fail, leaving the number of people without access even higher.”
The prices at which these doses are being sold has also come in for criticism. Oxfam’s research shows that options for the entire supply of one of the vaccines have been sold to ‘rich nations’ at the cost of up to $35 per dose, “putting protection out of reach for many people living in poverty”.
Anna Marriott, Health Policy Advisor at Oxfam, commented: “These figures reveal how pharmaceutical monopolies are being protected at the expense of people’s health and the global economy. While countries like the UK are understandably concerned about securing enough doses, until they challenge monopolies these deals will leave many poorer nations out in the cold. Most importantly, we will never be able to produce a vaccine at the scale required until corporations share their knowledge free from patents. We need a People’s Vaccine, not a profit vaccine.”
You will find more infographics at Statista
C.D.C. Testing Guidance Was Published Against Scientists’ Objections – New York Times
A heavily criticized recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month about who should be tested for the coronavirus was not written by C.D.C. scientists and was posted to the agency’s website despite their serious objections, according to several people familiar with the matter as well as internal documents obtained by The New York Times.
The guidance said it was not necessary to test people without symptoms of Covid-19 even if they had been exposed to the virus. It came at a time when public health experts were pushing for more testing rather than less, and administration officials told The Times that the document was a C.D.C. product and had been revised with input from the agency’s director, Dr. Robert Redfield.
But officials told The Times this week that the Department of Health and Human Services did the rewriting and then “dropped” it into the C.D.C.’s public website, flouting the agency’s strict scientific review process.
… The document contains “elementary errors” — such as referring to “testing for Covid-19,” as opposed to testing for the virus that causes it — and recommendations inconsistent with the C.D.C.’s stance that mark it to anyone in the know as not having been written by agency scientists, according to a senior C.D.C. scientist who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of a fear of repercussions.
[editor’s note: this guidance was reversed – The C.D.C. reverses its guidance on testing for people who were exposed to the virus and aren’t showing symptoms.]
Pfizer Vaccine Trial Bets on Early Win Against Coronavirus, Documents Show – Medscape
Pfizer Inc is betting that its coronavirus vaccine candidate will show clear evidence of effectiveness early in its clinical trial, according to the company and internal documents reviewed by Reuters that describe how the trial is being run.
In recent weeks, Pfizer has said it should know by the end of October whether the vaccine, developed together with Germany’s BioNTech SE, is safe and effective. If the vaccine is shown to work by then, Pfizer has said it would quickly seek regulatory approval. It has not said what data it would use.
President Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election, has said a vaccine to fight the coronavirus pandemic is possible before the Nov. 3 U.S. vote, raising concerns over political interference. Scientists have questioned whether drugmakers will have enough evidence to achieve success by that time.
Pfizer’s clinical trial protocol outlines for the company, scientists and regulators how the drugmaker could show that its vaccine meets efficacy and safety standards set by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Moderna to seek limited emergency use of COVID-19 vaccine if data shows high efficacy – Reuters
If Moderna Inc’s MRNA.O COVID-19 vaccine proves to be at least 70% effective, the company plans to seek emergency authorization for its use in high-risk groups, the company’s chief executive told Reuters.
Moderna’s vaccine candidate – mRNA-1273 – is nearing the finish line in its push to enroll 30,000 individuals in a late-stage trial of a novel coronavirus vaccine. As of Wednesday night, Moderna had enrolled 25,296 participants.
But the company may be able to declare victory early if it is able to show that people who got the vaccine fared much better in its trial that people who did not.
Vaccines must demonstrate they are at least 50% more effective than a placebo to be considered for approval. To prove that, government officials have said, at least 150 COVID-19infections must be recorded among trial participants with at least twice as many occurring among the placebo group.
If a vaccine is especially effective, companies could have their answer sooner.
Moderna expects to make 20 million doses of coronavirus vaccine by 2020 end – CNBC
- Moderna said it is on track to produce 20 million doses of its experimental coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year.
- The drugmaker is maintaining its goal of readying 500 million to 1 billion doses in 2021.
- Moderna had enrolled 25,296 participants out of a planned 30,000 in its late-stage study as of Wednesday.
Health workers make up 1 in 7 reported coronavirus infections, WHO says – The Hill
- The World Health Organization on Thursday called on governments to better protect medical workers on the frontlines of the coronavirus pandemic.
- “The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded all of us of the vital role health workers play to relieve suffering and save lives,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
- The WHO noted that the pandemic has also placed tremendous psychological stress on health care workers battling the virus.
Silicon Valley startup Visby’s portable COVID-19 test gets FDA approval – Reuters
Silicon Valley medical equipment startup Visby Medical has received Emergency Use Authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a portable PCR COVID-19 test kit, the first company to do so, according to the FDA on Thursday.
PCR, or polymerase chain reaction, rapidly replicates DNA or RNA and is considered an accurate diagnostic tool used in labs for infectious diseases. Traditionally, PCR testing uses a machine the size of a large microwave and can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Visby founder and CEO Adam de la Zerda started working at shrinking that machine to a portable size that fits in the palm over seven years ago, initially to use on diagnosing sexually transmitted diseases. But with COVID-19 the company pivoted.
CNN has obtained an internal safety report by pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca that sheds light on the neurological condition suffered by one of the participants in its coronavirus vaccine clinical trial.
The report details how the study volunteer, a previously healthy 37-year-old woman, “experienced confirmed transverse myelitis” after receiving her second dose of the vaccine, and was hospitalized on September 5.
Four days later, AstraZeneca dismissed media reports about the participant having a confirmed case of the rare neurological condition, in which the spinal cord becomes inflamed.
The document, which is labeled an “initial report,” describes how the study participant had trouble walking, weakness and pain in her arms, and other symptoms.
An intranasal povidone-iodine nasal antiseptic was able to rapidly inactivate COVID-19 in an in vitro lab study. – JAMA
Povidone-iodine nasal antiseptic solutions at concentrations as low as 0.5% rapidly inactivate SARS-CoV-2 at contact times as short as 15 seconds. Intranasal use of PVP-I has demonstrated safety at concentrations of 1.25% and below and may play an adjunctive role in mitigating viral transmission beyond personal protective equipment.
[editor’s note: Paired with personal protective equipment, this could serve as another method to curb transmission.]
CDC: COVID-19 Wiped Out the Flu Around the World This Year – MedPage
Flu numbers in the U.S. were historically low during COVID-19 in the spring, with deep declines also occurring in the recently completed Southern Hemisphere flu season, CDC researchers found.
Influenza positivity rates in specimens tested (a standard metric of community flu activity) fell 98% in 2020 during March 1-May 16 relative to Sept 29, 2019-Feb. 29, 2020, plummeting from a median of 19.34% to 0.33%, reported Sonja Olsen, PhD, of the CDC in Atlanta, and colleagues.
[editor’s note: Nobody tracks how many people get the flu each year and it is a POA estimate]
Nursing Homes Given Federal Go-Ahead To Allow More Visitors – NPR
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which regulate nursing facilities, are lifting the ban on visitors, effective immediately. CMS imposed the restriction in March in an effort to control outbreaks of the coronavirus.
Advocates for nursing home residents and family organizations have been clamoring for a repeal, noting the many residents who have suffered anxiety or depression, as well as physical or mental decline since the ban was imposed. The issue was also raised in the report of the Coronavirus Commission for Safety and Quality in Nursing Homes, which became public on Wednesday.
Now, all nursing homes can allow outdoor visits with social distancing, as a few states have recently allowed. And most nursing homes can allow indoor visits as long as there have been no new COVID-19 infections in the past 2 weeks and the infection rate in the surrounding county is no more than 10%. But CMS recommends that nursing homes limit how many visitors a resident can have at one time, as well as limiting the number of visitors that can be in the facility at once.
A nursing facility that fails to allow visitation without a valid medical reason can suffer sanctions.
CDC tells Congress it urgently needs $6 billion for vaccine distribution – The Hill
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it needs $6 billion that it does not currently have in order to distribute a coronavirus vaccine, highlighting a new hurdle in a massive logistical undertaking.
The agency had previously privately informed Congress of the need for more funds, according to congressional aides, but CDC Director Robert Redfield made the request public for the first time at a Senate hearing on Wednesday, calling it “urgent.”
“Right now we’ve leveraged about $600 million, but we do not have the resources to support 64 jurisdictions to get this plan operational, so to me it’s an urgency,” Redfield said.
“The time is now for us to be able to get those resources out to the state, and we currently don’t have those resources,” he added.
The need for vaccine distribution funding raises the stakes for Congress to come together on a broader coronavirus deal. While both parties support the vaccine funding, there is no clear path for enacting it outside of a larger deal, which has been stalled for months.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
French COVID Testers to Strike Over ‘Wartime’ Conditions
Jordan to jail organisers of large social events to stem COVID-19 spike
Wanted in Israel: More Shofar Blowers For Socially Distanced Jewish New Year
UK eyes short-term closures as coronavirus cases spike
Israel to revert back to full lockdown as coronavirus cases climb
Boris Johnson Says Second Wave of COVID-19 is Happening Across U.K.
Sweden Claims Its High Coronavirus Death Toll Is Down to Mild Flu Seasons
A Chinese vaccine maker will try a two-dose regimen after concerns that one dose was ineffective.
Travel restrictions between U.S., Mexico, and Canada extended through Oct. 21
WHO says the coronavirus is killing about 50,000 people a week: ‘That is not where we want to be’
The list of countries where you can get a visa to go work remotely is growing
Australia to Ease Border Limits and Allow More Citizens Home
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Could COVID-19 Pandemic Increase Physician Burnout, Suicide?
Governor Says Most Of Texas Can Loosen Limits On Businesses, But Bars Must Stay Shut
Pastor who prayed against mask mandate has COVID-19
Coronavirus Outbreak at Family BBQ Hospitalizes 2, Infects 8 Others
Coronavirus Has Killed 7 Teachers Since School Year Began
North Dakota, With No Mask Mandate, Now Has Highest Infection Rate in U.S.
Majority of U.S. Voters Would Back a National Lockdown: Poll
One in Six U.S. Voters Never Wear Mask on Public Transport
N Dakota, Wisconsin & Missouri Report Most COVID Cases Since Epidemic Began
Only 20% of Americans Want States To Relax Coronavirus Restrictions
U.S. officials seize a trove of counterfeit N95 respirator masks from Hong Kong.
Some Chiefs fans told to quarantine after person at game tests positive for COVID-19
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Leading Economic Index Somewhat Improves – Growth Will Likely Be Weak Leading Into 2021
11 September 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues
Preliminary September 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves
Rail Week Ending 12 September 2020 – Still In Contraction But Remains On An Improving Trendline
Infographic Of The Day: The Shape Of Economic Recovery, According To CEOs
Natural Disasters Misdirect Economic Data
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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