Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 13.3 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 5.1 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Chinese vaccine ready for use in November, top scientist says
- Fauci says a national mask mandate “probably would not work”
- Proving that a vaccine works is easier than proving that it’s safe
- Pharma CEO warns that millions worldwide won’t get COVID vaccine until 2024
- Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine Could Be Given to Americans Before End of the Year, CEO Says
- NIH ‘Very Concerned’ About Serious Side Effect in AstraZeneca/Oxford University Coronavirus Vaccine Trial
- More cities and states are opening bars and restaurants despite mounting evidence of potential danger
- Russian excess deaths over summer outstrip COVID toll by more than 3 to 1
- Medicaid rolls swell amid the pandemic’s historic job losses, straining state budgets
- American Incomes Were Rising, Until The Pandemic Hit
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 15 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 15 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 36,307 | 6,550,000 | 276,103 | 29,310,000 | 13.1% | 22.3% |
| Deaths** | 451 | 194,530 | 4,075 | 928,890 | 11.1% | 20.9% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.39* | 292.40* | ||||
* as of 11 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Chinese vaccine ready for use in November, top scientist says – South China Morning Post
- Clinical trials have been progressing smoothly and preparations are being made to go into mass production, CDC’s chief biosafety expert Wu Guizhen says
- Wu says she was inoculated herself in April and ‘has felt quite good’ since
American Incomes Were Rising, Until The Pandemic Hit – NPR
Household income in the United States rose sharply last year while poverty declined — fruits of a record-long period of economic growth that ended abruptly when the coronavirus pandemic struck.
An annual report from the Census Bureau shows median household income jumped 6.8% in 2019, to $68,700. That’s the highest since the government started keeping track in 1967.
The poverty rate declined to 10.5% — the lowest since records began in 1959.
Analysts caution that both income and poverty measures may have been skewed by the challenges of conducting interviews during the pandemic. Fewer people completed the survey than in years past, which likely resulted in artificially boosting the income measure while depressing the poverty rate. Were it not for those survey problems, the Census Bureau estimates median household income would have risen just 3.8% and the poverty rate would have registered as 11.1%.
Even with that caveat, the report provides a frozen-in-amber snapshot of how a long period of job growth and low unemployment padded the pocketbooks of American families.
Pharma CEO warns that millions worldwide won’t get COVID vaccine until 2024 – SFGate
The chief executive of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer says it will take about four or five years to produce enough COVID-19 vaccines to inoculate everyone in the world.
In a video call Monday with the Financial Times, Adar Poonawalla, CEO of Serum Institute of India (SII), estimated that the feat will require 15 billion doses for a two-doses-per-person vaccine. But he warned that pharmaceutical manufacturers currently do not have the production capacity to come close to meeting that demand.
Even if a vaccine were ready by early next year, as India’s health minister Harsh Vardan predicted in remarks Sunday, there won’t be enough doses to vaccinate the entire global population until 2024, Poonawalla said.
‘Rogue’ Chinese Virologist Joins Twitter, Publishes “Smoking Gun” Evidence COVID-19 Created In Lab – ZeroHedge
On Saturday we reported that Dr. Li-Meng Yan – a Chinese virologist (MD, PhD) who fled the country, leaving her job at a prestigious Hong Kong university – appeared last week on British television where she claimed SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, was created by Chinese scientists in a lab.
On Sunday, Li-Meng joined Twitter – and on Monday, just hours ago, she tweeted a link to a paper she co-authored with three other Chinese scientists titled:
Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route
— Dr. Li-Meng YAN (@LiMengYAN119) September 14, 2020
She also posted a link to her credentials on ResearchGate, revealing her (prior?) affiliation with The University of Hong Kong and 13 publications which have been cited 557 times.
— Dr. Li-Meng YAN (@LiMengYAN119) September 14, 2020
Cutting to the chase:
“The evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 should be a laboratory product created by using bat coronaviruses ZC45 and/or ZXC21 as a template and/or backbone. Building upon the evidence, we further postulate a synthetic route for SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the laboratory-creation of this coronavirus is convenient and can be accomplished in approximately six months.
Here is the extended punchline:
The receptor-binding motif of SARS-CoV-2 Spike cannot be born from nature and should have been created through genetic engineering.
The Spike proteins decorate the exterior of the coronavirus particles. They play an important role in infection as they mediate the interaction with host cell receptors and thereby help determine the host range and tissue tropism of the virus. The Spike protein is split into two halves (Figure 3). The front or N-terminal half is named S1, which is fully responsible for binding the host receptor. In both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 infections, the host cell receptor is hACE2. Within S1, a segment of around 70 amino acids makes direct contacts with hACE2 and is correspondingly named the receptor-binding motif (RBM) (Figure 3C). In SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, the RBM fully determines the interaction with hACE2. The C-terminal half of the Spike protein is named S2. The main function of S2 includes maintaining trimer formation and, upon successive protease cleavages at the S1/S2 junction and a downstream S2′ position, mediating membrane fusion to enable cellular entry of the virus.
[editor’s note: for those conspiracy types, this article deserves a full read]
Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine Could Be Given to Americans Before End of the Year, CEO Says – NBC4 New York
Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine could be distributed to Americans before the end of the year if found to be safe and effective, CEO Albert Bourla said Sunday.
The drugmaker should have key data from its late-stage trial for the Food and Drug Administration by the end of October, Bourla said during an interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” If the FDA approves the vaccine, the company is prepared to distribute “hundreds of thousands of doses,” he said.
Because of the pandemic, U.S. health officials and drugmakers have been accelerating the development of vaccine candidates by investing in multiple stages of research even though doing so could be for naught if the vaccine ends up not being effective or safe.
The U.S. pharmaceutical giant has been working alongside German drugmaker BioNTech. In July, the U.S. government announced it would pay the companies $1.95 billion to produce and deliver 100 million doses of their vaccine if it proves safe and effective. The deal was signed as part of Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s effort to accelerate development and production of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus.
Bourla said Sunday that the company has already invested $1.5 billion for the development of the potential vaccine. He said if the vaccine failed to work it would be financially “painful” for the company.
More cities and states are opening bars and restaurants despite mounting evidence of potential danger – Washington Post
In New York City, diners will be able to have a meal inside a restaurant at the end of the month, something that hasn’t happened there since the coronavirus pandemic began. In some parts of Florida, bars reopened Monday for the first time since late June.
One decision appears to be riskier than the other, according to an analysis of cellphone and coronavirus case data by The Washington Post.
States that have reopened bars experienced a doubling in the rate of coronavirus cases three weeks after the opening of doors, on average. The Post analysis — using data provided by SafeGraph, a company that aggregates cellphone location information — found a statistically significant national relationship between foot traffic to bars one week after they reopened and an increase in cases three weeks later.
The analysis of the cellphone data suggests there is not as strong a relationship between the reopening of restaurants and a rise in cases, nor with bar foot traffic and cases over time, except for a handful of states.
But like with so much in the pandemic, easy answers can prove elusive.
Russian excess deaths over summer outstrip COVID toll by more than 3 to 1 – Reuters
The number of excess deaths in Russia between May and July was more than three times higher than the official coronavirus toll, recent government data show, a discrepancy some experts say raises questions about the accuracy of Moscow’s counting.
While Russia has confirmed the world’s fourth largest tally of coronavirus cases, it has a relatively low death toll from the associated disease, COVID-19.
Moscow says the way it classifies deaths is more accurate than other nations. Some Russian health officials have explained that in many cases, a patient who dies with COVID-19 does not necessarily die of it but from other causes including pre-existing health problems.
Tatiana Golikova, the head of Russia’s coronavirus crisis centre, told President Vladimir Putin in late July that Russia’s coronavirus mortality rate was “significantly lower than in a range of other countries”.
But data released by the Rosstat State Statistics Service on Sept. 4 show there were 57,800 excess deaths between May and July, the peak of the outbreak.
The figure was calculated by comparing fatalities over those three months in 2020 with the average number of May-July deaths between 2015 and 2019. The excess total is more than three times greater than the official May-July COVID-19 death toll of 15,955.
[editor’s note: this is an example of why it is dangerous to compare countries coronavirus results]
Medicaid rolls swell amid the pandemic’s historic job losses, straining state budgets – Washington Post
By the most recent count, the roster of Nevadans on Medicaid has climbed from fewer than 644,000 in February, the month before the state reported its first case of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, to about 731,000 through August.
That 13.5 percent increase places Nevada among at least three states, along with Kentucky and Minnesota, where the cadre of people on Medicaid has spiked that much, including families, like the Chapins, who have never before asked for government help. But increases are widespread: Caseloads had risen on average 8.4 percent through July in 30 states for which researchers have enrollment information. And in 14 states with enrollment data through August, the average is 10 percent.
If the past is a guide, this is merely the beginning.
During the Great Recession from late 2007 to mid-2009 and previous bad economic spells in the history of Medicaid, Americans have turned to the program more gradually than to unemployment benefits, food stamps and other aid for people sliding out of comfortable lives. Medicaid is insurance for the poor that is a shared responsibility of the federal government and states, begun as a pillar of President Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society expansion of government help of the 1960s.
NIH ‘Very Concerned’ About Serious Side Effect in Coronavirus Vaccine Trial – Medscape
The Food and Drug Administration is weighing whether to follow British regulators in resuming a coronavirus vaccine trial that was halted when a participant suffered spinal cord damage, even as the National Institutes of Health has launched an investigation of the case.
“The highest levels of NIH are very concerned,” said Dr. Avindra Nath, intramural clinical director and a leader of viral research at the National Institute for Neurological Disorders and Stroke, an NIH division. “Everyone’s hopes are on a vaccine, and if you have a major complication the whole thing could get derailed.”
A great deal of uncertainty remains about what happened to the unnamed patient, to the frustration of those avidly following the progress of vaccine testing. AstraZeneca, which is running the global trial of the vaccine it produced with Oxford University, said the trial volunteer recovered from a severe inflammation of the spinal cord and is no longer hospitalized.
AstraZeneca has not confirmed that the patient was afflicted with transverse myelitis, but Nath and another neurologist said they understood this to be the case. Transverse myelitis produces a set of symptoms involving inflammation along the spinal cord that can cause pain, muscle weakness and paralysis. Britain’s regulatory body, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, reviewed the case and has allowed the trial to resume in the United Kingdom.
AstraZeneca “need[s] to be more forthcoming with a potential complication of a vaccine which will eventually be given to millions of people,” said Nath. “We would like to see how we can help, but the lack of information makes it difficult to do so.”
As many colleges shift to remote learning, these U.S. universities are bringing more students back to campus. – New York Times
Even as U.S. colleges and universities have become hot spots, forcing some schools to suspend or cancel in-person classes, a few — Brown, Clemson and Miami University of Ohio — are inviting more students back to campus.
They are also beseeching students not to allow the decision to backfire.
“I want to kindly ask each and every one of our students, faculty and staff to do all they can to minimize the spread of this virus,” wrote James P. Clements, Clemson’s president, when announcing that about 7,000 students could move into on-campus housing, and that the South Carolina school would return to some in-person instruction on Monday.
He said the move did not suggest that the outbreak was over, adding that “we should expect to see more cases over the next few weeks.”
A New York Times tracker has identified at least 782 cases at Clemson since the pandemic began. A Clemson spokesman said the university believed it was safe for students to return.
“Proving that a vaccine works is easier than proving that it’s safe,” former CDC director says – CNN
“Proving that a vaccine works is easier than proving that it’s safe,” former US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Tom Frieden said Tuesday.
During an event hosted by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, Frieden said he has two safety concerns regarding a potential Covid-19 vaccine.
“First are the Kawasaki-like syndrome and illnesses that we’ve seen in children, and possibly similar illnesses in adults,” Frieden said. “That is an immune reaction, and therefore there’s a theoretical chance that some vaccines could create that kind of reaction.”
Frieden, who is currently president and CEO of the global health initiative Resolve to Save Lives, emphasized that he is not predicting this will happen, but suggesting that we do due diligence in watching out for it.
“The second concern is sometimes called antibody-dependent enhancement,” Frieden said. “This has been seen in some old vaccines, half a century ago, but it also was seen in an animal model of one SARS vaccine.”
Fauci says a national mask mandate “probably would not work” – CNN
Dr. Anthony Fauci said a national mask mandate “probably would not work.”
Speaking during a news conference with Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, Fauci said, “There is such a degree of variability of accepting mandates throughout the country.”
Fauci added this has been discussed “in great detail at the level of the White House coronavirus task force.”
“If the citizens of a particular state, a city, a county or what have you, are really in lockstep with the authority, that does it – there’s not a big problem,” he said.
However, issues arise when a majority of the population in an area do not agree with the mandate – and that begs the question: How do you enforce the mandate?
Fauci said anything that puts an “authoritative statement to the citizenry often is met with a considerable amount of pushback.”
“The bottom line answer to your question is that a national mandate probably would not work,” he said.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Two of France’s largest cities impose stricter COVID-19 measures
83,000 new coronavirus cases reported in India
Australian state easing pandemic restrictions
Coronavirus Kills ‘One of Biggest Criminals in History of Europe’
Europe Set for COVID-19 Death Surge, Spain, U.K., Italy Deadlier Than U.S.
Royal Favorite Sport Exempt From U.K. COVID Restrictions As Brits Outraged
Researchers Trial Inhaled Versions of Oxford and Imperial COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates
Germany’s government invests millions in domestic vaccine production.
High schools and universities in Pakistan reopen for the first time in almost six months.
Germany believes vaccine will not be broadly available until mid-2021
Govt testing finds 32 positive cases, 1.8mn screened
South Korea to secure coronavirus vaccines for 60% of population
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
‘It could get really messy’: Finance workers’ cocaine use spikes in lockdown
Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade will be TV-only event, without live procession
Kids went to open-air schools during this epidemic in 1908. In winter. In New England.
Let’s Talk About STI Prevention Services During COVID-19
GOP senator to quarantine after coronavirus exposure
Prisoners Pepper-Sprayed After Botched Wildfire Evacuation Sparks Riots
Pharma Insiders Are Raking in Money Despite No Guaranteed COVID-19 Vaccine
Border Patrol Seizes 500,000 Counterfeit N95 Masks in Chicago
1,900 SeaWorld employees are laid off in latest cuts for the company
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Headline Industrial Production Improves But Remains In Contraction
August 2020 Import Year-over-Year Inflation Now -1.4%
September 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Index Significantly Improved
What’s The Best Strategy To Reduce COVID-19 Outbreaks In Schools? Let’s Do The Math
Majority Of US Young Adults Now Live With Their Parents
Coronavirus Is Hundreds Of Times More Deadly For People Over 60 Than People Under 40
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 14 September 2020 Down $0.37 From A Year Ago
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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