Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 2.8 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 6.2 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Post-intensive Care Syndrome: A Serious Issue for COVID-19 Survivors
- Container shortages in Asia expected to intensify
- WHO warns against ‘politically motivated’ information in coronavirus response
- Trust in COVID-19 Vaccine Falling, 79 Percent Wouldn’t Get Shot Right Away
- Cities and states in the U.S. are enacting major budget cuts
- Looking to buy a used car? So is everyone else
- It’s highly unlikely that food is a source of COVID-19 transmission, experts say
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 07 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 07 September 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 39,894 | 6,280,000 | 267,881 | 27,150,000 | 14.9% | 23.1% |
Deaths** | 403 | 188,941 | 8,929 | 889,259 | 4.5% | 21.2% |
Mortality Rate | 1.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.85* | 276.47* |
* as of 04 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Trump Wants to Use $300 Billion for Stimulus Checks, Here’s Who’s Excluded – Newsweek
President Donald Trump is ready to send out stimulus checks to millions of people, but on Friday he rejected the possibility of undocumented immigrants receiving a payment.
Undocumented immigrants were largely ineligible for the first round of economic impact payments, a provision Democrats sought to correct with a relief package of their own. Under the HEROES Act, which passed the House in May, certain undocumented immigrants would be eligible for the second round, as well as a retroactive payment from the CARES Act that passed in March.
Trump told reporters during Friday’s briefing that the government has $300 billion that he’s willing to use for another round of stimulus checks. But payments won’t be given to “illegal aliens.”
PICS: A Serious Issue for COVID-19 Survivors – MedPage
Even healthcare professionals may not be aware of and prepared for a condition called post-intensive care unit (ICU) syndrome (PICS) that can occur in the aftermath of COVID-19. What about those who were hospitalized for COVID-19, treated in the ICU, and are unaware of the possible long-term impact and rehabilitation phase?
There is a tendency to think that once the patient is discharged from the hospital, has tested negative, and looks well, the problem is resolved. However, the struggle of COVID-19 survivors and family members or caregivers may not end there.
PICS is an ongoing challenge that may potentially present a public health crisis. PICS is a term used to describe the group of impairments faced by ICU survivors. It can persist for months or years. PICS encompasses a combination of physical, neurological, social, and psychological decline.
The physical impairments include intensive care-acquired weakness, classified as critical illness myopathy, neuropathy, and neuromyopathy. Cognitive and psychological impairments involve impaired memory, language, delirium, depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Especially in COVID-19 ICU patients, some of these impairments are not just because of critical illness, but also due to the the invasion of virus in multiple tissues.
Container shortages in Asia expected to intensify – JOC
Equipment shortages in Asia are worsening as importers in the United States and Europe struggle to return empty containers to China and other Asian manufacturing hubs, casting doubt as to whether the international supply chain will be ready for the upcoming peak shipping season.
The container imbalance has been caused primarily by the spike in imports to the US and Europe in July and August following the reopening of their economies following lockdowns put in place in the early days of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Now, carriers are having difficulties repositioning the empty containers for return to load ports in Asia, especially China, according to carriers and non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOs).
Containers of all sizes — 20-foot, 40-foot, and 40-foot high-cube — are in short supply. Jon Monroe, a consultant to NVOs, listed in his weekly newsletter Wednesday nine load ports in China that are short on containers to various degrees. As a result, exporters in China are grabbing whatever containers they can, even if it means downsizing to containers that carry less freight at a higher cost to beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), he said.
“There are plenty of reports out there that a lot of equipment — I mean, I’m not talking for Maersk, but for the industry, if you will — has been stuck in Europe and the US and other importing regions and is slow in finding its way back to Asia,” Maersk CEO Søren Skou said on the company’s Q2 earnings call on Aug. 19.
Technology Aids Fight Against COVID-19 – MedPage
Nine innovations in health tech that help to manage the pandemic
- CT Scan with Artificial Intelligence
- Predictive Analytics
- Robots Performing Medical Tasks
- Fever Detection Cameras
- Drones
- Telemedicine
- 3D printing
- Contact Tracing
- AI “Distance Assistants”
WHO warns against ‘politically motivated’ information in coronavirus response – The Hill
The World Health Organization’s head of emergencies on Monday warned against governments releasing “politically motivated” data about the coronavirus pandemic.
“[T]rying to present oversimplified, simplistic solutions for people is not a long-term strategy that wins,” Michael Ryan told reporters, warning that governments that opt for this strategy risk their citizens’ trust.
“[T]ransparency, consistency, honesty” and admitting mistakes where necessary are a far better blueprint, he added, according to The Associated Press.
In contrast, he said, “[i]f communities perceive that they’re getting information that is being politically manipulated or that it has been managed in a way that is distorting evidence, then, unfortunately, that comes back to roost.”
Trust in COVID-19 Vaccine Falling, 79 Percent Wouldn’t Get Shot Right Away – Newsweek
There are already “worrying signs” that trust in potential COVID-19 vaccines is diminishing, according to a top advisor to the U.K. government.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the U.K.-based research-charity the Wellcome Trust, made the comments in the Observer newspaper on Sunday, the same day a CBS News poll revealed 79 percent of the U.S. public would not get a shot right away.
Teams of scientists around the world are working on almost 200 coronavirus vaccine candidates, with 34 in clinical evaluation, according to the World Health Organization.
A vaccine, alongside effective treatments, “is our only true exit strategy” out of the COVID-19 pandemic, Farrar wrote. He said he was optimistic results will soon be released on vaccines in late-stage clinical trials, but said the idea that a “perfect vaccine [is] ‘just around the corner,'” or will be a complete and immediate solution, must be tempered. “The speed and scale of vaccine development have been remarkable but it’s important to avoid false hope,” he said.
With no federal relief in sight, cities and states in the U.S. are enacting major budget cuts. – New York Times
Alaska chopped resources for public broadcasting. New York City gutted a nascent composting program that could have kept tons of food waste out of landfills. New Jersey postponed property-tax relief payments.
Prisoners in Florida will continue to swelter in their cells, because plans to air-condition its prisons are on hold. Many states have already cut planned raises for teachers.
And that’s just the start.
Across the United States, states and cities have made an array of fiscal maneuvers to stay solvent and are planning more in case Congress can’t agree on a fiscal relief package after the August recess.
House Democrats included nearly $1 billion in state and local aid in the relief bill they passed in May, but the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has said he doesn’t want to hand out a “blank check” to pay for what he considers fiscal mismanagement, including the enormous public-pension obligations some states have accrued. There has been little movement in that stalemate lately.
Covid-19 Set To Decimate Global Airport Revenue – Statista
Earlier this week, United announced it would be putting just over 16,000 workers on involuntary and indefinite furlough at the beginning of October unless the government announces an extension to the CARES Act which has been providing vital payroll assistance to hard-hit airlines since March. Such announcements have been sadly common over the past few weeks and they show just how hard U.S. airlines have been hit since the pandemic swept across the world earlier this year. A recent report from Airports Council International has now highlighted just how badly global civil aviation is struggling and how a 60 percent drop in airport revenue and passenger numbers has become an existential threat to the industry.
It states that air traffic is the lifeblood of the airport and that practically all revenue comes from aeronautical and non-aeronautical services. The collapse of passenger numbers has now led to revenue from passenger and aircraft-related charges as well as ancillary aviation-related services such as ground-handling evaporating. That is set to have far reachig consqeuences for airports, especially given levels of uncertainty regarding the recovery trajectory of global air traffic. ACI projected 9.4 billion passenger movements before the Covid-19 crisis and that has now been revised down to 3.8 billion. Likewise, revenue is set to suffer an equally catastrophic collapse, plummeting from a projected $179.9 billion to $67.4b billion.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Public Health Under Threat; COVID’s Mental Health Toll – MedPage
- Public health agencies in the U.S. are in peril. Chelsea Janes and William Wan highlight crumbling infrastructures unable to meet the basic demands of the job ~ The nation’s public health agencies are ailing when they’re needed most (The Washington Post)
- “[T]he mental health toll of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be far greater than previous mass traumas,” writes Rhitu Chatterjee, who explores a new study that found almost one in four Americans have experienced depression symptoms during the pandemic ~ Pandemic’s Emotional Hammer Hits Hard (NPR)
- Lisa A. Grohskopf, MD, MPH, and colleagues discuss their concerns over gaps in flu vaccine rates in recent years and the dire need to increase uptake in light of the pandemic ~ Addressing Influenza Vaccination Disparities During the COVID-19 Pandemic (JAMA)
- “A quick, clear casualty of this pandemic is the intimacy of patient care,” writes Mark Earnest, MD, PhD, reflecting on practicing medicine during a plague ~ On Becoming a Plague Doctor (New England Journal of Medicine)
- Will the pandemic help transform medical education? Catherine R. Lucey, MD, and S. Claiborne Johnston, MD, PhD, reveal why COVID-19 may be the catalyst for change ~ The Transformational Effects of COVID-19 on Medical Education (JAMA)
History Tells Us Epidemics Are Followed by Civil Unrest for Three Reasons – Newsweek
Academics have warned that the level of social unrest around the world may spike once the COVID-19 pandemic is over, for three reasons.
“To different degrees, most of the great epidemics of the past appear to have been incubators of social unrest,” Massimo Morelli, professor of political science at Bocconi University, and Roberto Censolo, associate professor in the department of economics and management at Italy’s University of Ferrara, wrote in the journal Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.
The pair reviewed evidence on protests and unrest around the time of 57 epidemics between the Black Death in the 1300s and the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, finding only four occasions where revolts were not clearly connected with the respective outbreaks.
They also looked at evidence on five cholera epidemics to see if social tension that escalated during those periods lead to “significant episodes of rebellion,” and found 39 took place before and 71 after. “This pattern characterizes each of the five epidemics,” they wrote.
According to the study, there is evidence to demonstrate that epidemics can disrupt civil society in three ways. Firstly, because policies to prevent the spread of disease can conflict with people’s interest; secondly because the epidemic’s impact on mortality and economic welfare can worsen inequality; and finally due to the psychological shock that can lead people to believe irrational narratives regarding the spread of disease, “which may result in social, racial discrimination and even xenophobia.”
Looking to buy a used car? So is everyone else. – New York Times
Consumers are snapping up used vehicles as second or third cars so they can avoid trains, buses or Ubers during the coronavirus pandemic. Others are buying used rather than new to save money in an uncertain economy, not knowing when they or their spouse might lose a job. Demand for older cars has also been fed by a roughly two-month halt in production of new cars this spring.
Across the United States, the prices of used cars have shot up. The increase defies the conventional wisdom that cars are depreciating assets that lose a big chunk of their value the moment they leave the dealership. In July alone, the average value of used cars jumped more than 16 percent, according to Edmunds.com.
It’s highly unlikely that food is a source of COVID-19 transmission, experts say – CNN
The International Commission on Microbiological Specifications for Foods (ICMSF) looked at the evidence that coronavirus might be carried on food or its packing and found very little.
“The ICMSF believes that it is highly unlikely that the ingestion of SARS-CoV-2 will result in illness; there is no documented evidence that food is a significant source and/or vehicle for transmission of SARS-CoV-2,” the organization said in a statement.
While it is possible that people could eat something contaminated with the virus and become infected that way, it’s never been seen to have happened, they said.
“To date, there has not been any evidence that food, food packaging or food handling is a source or important transmission route for SARS-CoV-2 resulting in COVID-19,” they wrote. “There are no foods that should be considered a risk or warrant consideration as a vector for SARS-CoV-2.”
There have been few reports of the virus being found on food products, ingredients and packaging materials and no evidence that links food or its packaging as a source of cross contact infection. However, it is still prudent to emphasize good food hygiene practices, the group said.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
India Moves Into 2nd Place For COVID-19 Cases
As it battles a second wave, Spain reports more than half a million coronavirus cases.
Pakistan will open up high schools and universities in mid-September.
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Vaccine scientist: ‘Smart business practice’ for companies to not seek premature FDA approval
Labor Day caps dismal summer for travel and tourism
Frat Party of Over 100 Students Linked to New Hampshire COVID-19 Outbreak
Allegiant Air Deplanes Man Who Asked Flight Attendant To Wear Face Mask
Florida Store Owner Says She’s Received Rape Threats Over Mask Policy
Florida reports lowest number of new COVID-19 cases in more than two months
A 1,000-person gathering to celebrate Burning Man culture at San Francisco’s Ocean Beach put people’s lives at risk
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Why COVID-19 Vaccines Need To Prioritize ‘Superspreaders’
Manhattan Apartments See Record Loss In Sales
Firms Anticipate COVID-19 Uncertainty To Persist, But Not Worsen
Healing The Fractures Of The Global Economy
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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