Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 3.7 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.8 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- That CDC 6% COVID Death Rate, Explained
- Pfizer may know if its vaccine is effective by next month, its chief executive says
- Other Corticosteroids Help COVID-19, Too
- C.D.C. Tells States How to Prepare for Covid-19 Vaccine by Early November
- Health Officials Worry Nation’s Not Ready for COVID-19 Vaccine
- Groups Jockey for COVID-19 Vax ‘High Priority’ Status
- People obeyed stay-at-home orders, CDC cellphone data shows
- Long-Term Effect of COVID-19: Timing Uncertain for Reopening the Workplace
- COVID-19 Crisis Accelerates Shift to Online Retail
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 03 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 03 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 41,790 | 6,110,000 | 265,312 | 26,060,000 | 15.8% | 23.4% |
| Deaths** | 1,055 | 185,744 | 6,038 | 863,535 | 17.5% | 21.5% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.58* | 253.47* | ||||
* as of 28 Aug 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Pfizer may know if its vaccine is effective by next month, its chief executive says. – New York Times
Pfizer’s chief executive, Dr. Albert Bourla, said Thursday that the company expects to know whether its vaccine is effective by the end of October, and that it would apply immediately for approval if that was the case.
His remarks, made to the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations, a global trade group, come as a handful of companies are racing to finish a vaccine that could help end the pandemic, and as scientists have increasingly worried that the Trump administration is pushing prematurely for a vaccine approval before the Nov. 3 presidential election.
Dr. Bourla said that about 23,000 people have enrolled in the company’s late-stage clinical trial, out of a goal of about 30,000, and that “a significant number” of them have received the second booster shot. Half of the participants receive the vaccine, half receive a placebo, and then researchers wait to see how many people in each group develop Covid-19.
If significantly more people get Covid-19 on the placebo than the vaccine, that is evidence that the vaccine is effective. The F.D.A. has indicated that vaccine makers should aim for 50 percent protection in order to be considered effective.
Other Corticosteroids Help COVID-19, Too – Medpage
Dexamethasone’s benefits for COVID-19 critical illness were replicated in a Brazilian randomized trial, while a World Health Organization-sponsored patient-level meta-analysis of ongoing randomized trials concluded that it’s a class effect across corticosteroids.
Both sets of data, along with two other multicenter randomized controlled trials of corticosteroids in critically-ill patients with COVID-19, appeared simultaneously in JAMA on Wednesday.
All three trials halted enrollment in June 2020 after the U.K.-based RECOVERY trial announced in a press release that dexamethasone cut mortality, with published results showing 36% reduction in mechanically-ventilated patients and 18% in patients on supplemental oxygen.
… The CoDEX multicenter, open-label trial randomized 299 patients in Brazil with COVID-19 and moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) by the Berlin definition to 20-mg IV dexamethasone daily for 5 days, then 10 mg daily for 5 days or until ICU discharge atop standard care or to standard care alone.
For the primary outcome, dexamethasone increased days alive and days free from mechanical ventilation during the first 28 days to a mean 6.6 versus 4.0 among controls (P=0.04), reported Luciano Azevedo, MD, PhD, of Hospital Sirio-Libanes in São Paulo, and colleagues.
Coronavirus could hold economy back for decades – The Hill
A recent study predicts that the coronavirus pandemic could hold the economy back for decades due to a lack of risk-taking and decreased economic output.
The study, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, forecasts that the pandemic has incited fears that could reduce risk-taking behaviors by boosting the “perceived probability of an extreme, negative shock in the future.”
The research was released at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference last week, according to USA Today.
The study comes as officials across the country are striving for a vaccine in the hopes it will help alleviate Americans’ fears about COVID-19 and get the economy back on track. But the researchers predict that the long-term economic impact could be “many times larger” if risk-averting behaviors persist past the pandemic.
“While the virus will eventually pass, vaccines will be developed, and workers will return to work, an event of this magnitude could leave lasting effects on the nature of economic activity,” the paper says. “Businesses will make future decisions with the risk of another pandemic in mind.”
C.D.C. Tells States How to Prepare for Covid-19 Vaccine by Early November – New York Times
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has notified public health officials in all 50 states and five large cities to prepare to distribute a coronavirus vaccine to health care workers and other high-risk groups as soon as late October or early November.
The new C.D.C. guidance is the latest sign of an accelerating race for a vaccine to ease a pandemic that has killed more than 184,000 Americans. The documents were sent out on the same day that President Trump told the nation in his speech to the Republican National Convention that a vaccine might arrive before the end of the year.
Over the past week, both Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr. Stephen Hahn, who heads the Food and Drug Administration, have said in interviews with news organizations that a vaccine may be available for certain groups before clinical trials have been completed, if the data is overwhelmingly positive.
Public health experts agree that agencies at all levels of government should urgently prepare for what will eventually be a vast, complex effort to vaccinate hundreds of millions of Americans. But the possibility of a rollout in late October or early November has heightened concerns that the Trump administration is seeking to rush the distribution of a vaccine — or simply to hype that one is possible — before Election Day on Nov. 3.
CDC asks states to speed approvals so coronavirus vaccine sites are ready by Nov. 1 – CNBC
- The CDC said states may need to waive some licensing and permit requirements that could bog down the process.
- CDC Director Robert Redfield noted the licensing waivers “will not compromise the safety or integrity of the products being distributed.”
Health Officials Worry Nation’s Not Ready for COVID-19 Vaccine – Kaiser Health News
Public health departments, which have struggled for months to test and trace everyone exposed to the novel coronavirus, are now being told to prepare to distribute COVID-19 vaccines as early as Nov. 1.
In a four-page memo this summer, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told health departments across the country to draft vaccination plans by Oct. 1 “to coincide with the earliest possible release of COVID-19 vaccine.”
… But health departments that have been underfunded for decades say they currently lack the staff, money and tools to educate people about vaccines and then to distribute, administer and track doses to some 330 million people. Nor do they know when, or if, they’ll get federal aid to do that.
“There is a tremendous amount of work to be done to be prepared for this vaccination program and it will not be complete by Nov. 1,” said Dr. Kelly Moore, associate director of immunization education at the Immunization Action Coalition, a national vaccine education and advocacy organization based in St. Paul, Minnesota. “States will need more financial resources than they have now.”
Dozens of doctors, nurses and health officials interviewed by KHN and The Associated Press expressed concern about the country’s readiness to conduct mass vaccinations, as well as frustration with months of inconsistent information from the federal government.
… An ongoing investigation by KHN and the AP has detailed how state and local public health departments across the U.S. have been starved for decades, leaving them underfunded and without adequate resources to confront the coronavirus pandemic. The investigation further found that federal coronavirus funds have been slow to reach public health departments, forcing some communities to cancel non-coronavirus vaccine clinics and other essential services.
States are allowed to use some of the federal money they’ve already received to prepare for immunizations. But KHN and the AP found that many health departments are so overwhelmed with the current costs of the pandemic — such as testing and contact tracing — that they can’t reserve money for the vaccine work to come. Health departments will need to hire people to administer the vaccines and systems to track them, and pay for supplies such as protective medical masks, gowns and gloves, as well as warehouses and refrigerator space.
Groups Jockey for COVID-19 Vax ‘High Priority’ Status – MedPage
The wide swath of groups receiving the highest priority for any potential COVID-19 vaccine should expand to include particular races and ethnicities, as well as certain occupations, advocates told the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) on Wednesday.
In addition to race/ethnicity, experts advocated for priority vaccine access for a larger population of older people, other healthcare workers beyond the medical setting, such as pharmacists and dentists, and public service workers.
On Tuesday, NASEM released part of their draft recommendations for COVID-19 vaccine allocation, comprised of a four-phase approach that placed “high-risk workers in healthcare facilities” and “first responders” at the top of the list, followed by people with comorbidities and underlying conditions, and older adults living in “congregate or overcrowded settings.”
U.S. To Owe More Than The Size Of Its Economy For The 1st Time In 75 Years – NPR
The pandemic is taking a big toll on the government’s bottom line.
The federal government’s accumulated debt burden is projected to be larger than the overall economy next year for the first time since 1946. Debt is expected to reach an all-time high of 107% of gross domestic product in 2023.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the deficit to reach $3.3 trillion in the fiscal year ending this month. That’s about 16% of GDP — a level not seen since the end of World War II in 1945.
Federal spending has soared to 32% of GDP this fiscal year as the government tries to address both the economic and public health costs of the pandemic. The coronavirus has infected more than 6 million people in the United States and claimed more than 180,000 lives here.
With tens of millions of people out of work and countless businesses struggling or shuttered, tax revenues are falling. Revenues are projected to be 16% of GDP this fiscal year — down from 16.3% last year and 18% in 2015.
People obeyed stay-at-home orders, CDC cellphone data shows – CNN
Stay-at-home orders issued across the United States in the spring appeared to work at keeping people home, new cellphone data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows.
“Based on location data from mobile devices, in 97.6% of counties with mandatory stay-at-home orders issued by states or territories, these orders were associated with decreased median population movement after the order start date,” the researchers wrote in the study.
The researchers also found that in areas where orders were lifted or expired, movement “significantly increased” immediately afterward.
“Reduced population movement helps prevent close contact among persons outside the household, potentially limiting exposure to persons infected with SARS-CoV-2,” the researchers from the CDC and the Georgia Tech Research Institute wrote in the CDC’s weekly report.
The study included data on stay-at-home orders issued by states, the District of Columbia and five US territories between March 1 and May 31.
COVID-19 Crisis Accelerates Shift to Online Retail – Statista
Over the past 20 years, e-commerce has steadily risen in size and reach. According to Statista’s Digital Market Outlook, more than 250 million Americans will make an online purchase this year, but how big is e-commerce really in the grand scheme of things?
According to data regularly published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the impact of online shopping on total retail sales in the United States has long been smaller than many people might think. In the first quarter of 2020, e-commerce accounted for 11.8 percent of total retail sales (excl. food services) on a seasonally adjusted basis, which was the highest share on record – until the pandemic hit the United States.
As the following chart shows, the COVID-19 crisis accelerated the shift to online retail at an unprecedented pace. Faced with stay-at-home orders and store closures, millions of Americans resorted to shopping online, resulting in a 4.3 point jump in the online portion of total retail sales. E-commerce sales amounted to $212 billion in the three months ending in June, which is equivalent to 16.1 percent of total retail sales. That’s up from just 10.8 percent in Q2 2019 and from 7.2 percent five years ago, illustrating the size of the latest jump.
While 16 percent still doesn’t seem like a lot considering the perceived importance of online retail, it needs to be noted that total retail sales include categories such as motor vehicle and parts dealers, gas stations and of course grocery stores, where e-commerce still plays a very minor role. Other categories, most importantly clothing and footwear, are seeing significantly higher shares of online sales already.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Long-Term Effect of COVID-19: Timing Uncertain for Reopening the Workplace – The Conference Board
Many businesses hoped to reopen their workplaces after Labor Day, but a new survey of managers and executives suggests a long, uncertain road ahead. 35 percent say the timing of when their companies will reopen the workplace is unknown.
The Conference Board survey also found that only about 60 percent of companies have consulted their workers about their levels of readiness and comfort in returning to the workplace. In addition, despite talk of a looming vaccine and its benefits, just 5 percent say its wide availability would be a significant factor in the timing of a return to the workplace. The findings also reveal that, while most companies have mandated certain protocols for employees arriving at work, only 67 percent are requiring screening, testing, or temperature checks.
The survey polled more than 1,100 businesspersons across 20 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The respondents – primarily C-suite executives, vice presidents, and senior managers – represent a cross-section of industries. The online survey was fielded from August 19th -26th. Key findings include:
Over a third of companies have not set a date for reopening.
- Over a third of companies surveyed, 35 percent, say their reopening date is still unknown.
- 39 percent of companies plan to reopen by the first quarter of 2021.
- 13 percent of companies have remained open throughout the pandemic.
- The highest levels of uncertainty: Miami (46%), Seattle (43%), San Diego (42%), Washington, DC (41%), and San Francisco (41%).
For reopening, a vaccine is not top of mind.
- Just 5 percent thought the widespread availability of a vaccine would be a significant factor in the timing of a return to the workplace.
- This low ranking likely reflects concern about the viability of a vaccine with a significantly shorter clinical trial time. It also likely reflects concern about the legal implications for any corporate mandate to get the vaccine as a condition for returning.
The most and least frequent actions businesses are taking to safeguard their workers:
The most frequent:
- Purchasing safety equipment (e.g., masks, thermometers, contactless entry devices, sanitization devices) (82 percent).
- Creating new workplace policies requiring social distancing (e.g., limiting size of in-person meetings or usage of common areas) (80 percent).
- Preparing workspace for return of workers (e.g., deep cleaning or disinfecting) (78 percent).
The least frequent:
- Providing childcare options for workers (e.g., on-site childcare, flexible scheduling to meet childcare needs) (19 percent).
- Implementing safety measures and/or policies specifically for workers taking public transportation (e.g., requiring more frequent screening or providing extra safety supplies for workers who use public transportation or shared shuttles) (13 percent).
Do employees feel comfortable returning? Only about 60 percent of companies have even checked.
- About 60 percent of businesses chose to survey workers about their levels of readiness and comfort in returning.
On the upside, those businesses that did survey workers were more likely to put all safeguard measures in place, including top employee concerns.
- “Companies that sought worker sentiment about their comfort levels were more likely to implement safety measures specifically for workers taking public transportation, revise work-from-home policies, and provide childcare options,” said Rebecca Ray, Executive Vice President of Human Capital at The Conference Board. “Notably, these top worker concerns were low on the overall list of safeguards that organizations are implementing, indicating that they are more important to employees than employers may realize. This disconnect reinforces the need for companies to receive buy-in from their most precious resource – their people – especially about matters as consequential as this one.”
Less than half of companies have enacted or plan to enact staggered shifts or staggered timing.
- Despite fairly consistent health organization guidance regarding social distancing, only 46 percent planned for staggered shifts within the workday or work week to reduce worker contact.
- Moreover, only 46 percent plan to create staggered timing for business units or workers to reenter the workplace.
Two-thirds of companies are requiring screening, testing, or temperature checks.
- 67 percent of companies are requiring screening, testing, or temperature checks for returning workers.
- Such actions may not have universal backing due to the fear of litigation – specifically relating to who is asked to come back into the workplace – along with the efficacy of these protocols.
This analysis is a continuation of previous work by The Conference Board. In April 2020, researchers gauged how organizations were reacting to the changing business environment in the context of their workforces.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
France COVID Cases Near All-Time High as Spain Sees Spread Faster Than U.S.
20 German Students Get Coronavirus After Going on School Trip
Singapore detects new COVID-19 clusters at migrant worker dormitories
Relaunching France: Gov’t unveils $118bn economic stimulus plan
COVID-19 cases in Europe back to March level, EU health body says
Russia Plans to Resume Egypt, UAE, Maldives Flights Amid Pandemic
India reports more than 83,000 new Covid cases in highest daily spike
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Novavax published phase I/II results with its recombinant coronavirus subunit vaccine in the New England Journal of Medicine), which were generally similar to those seen with its competitors.
White House’s Birx denies ‘herd immunity’ policy under consideration
‘That’s certainly not my approach’: Fauci rejects pursuing herd immunity
Dwayne Johnson Explains How Whole Family Became Infected
Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Seaver dies of COVID-19, dementia at 75
Nurses Survey: N95 Mask Shortages Still the Rule
Review Suggests COVID-19 Paradox in Pregnancy
Despite Mass Testing, University Of Illinois Sees Coronavirus Cases Rise
United Plans 16,000 Furloughs As Airlines Cut Jobs During Pandemic Downturn
Alabama allows buffet restaurants to reopen
Mexico, US have had most front-line worker deaths from COVID-19
Schools nationwide brace for teacher shortages amid coronavirus
Brett Giroir Says Rapid Home Tests ‘Utopian’ As U.K. Funds Home Test Trial
White House Coronavirus Task force suggested a mask mandate in Missouri
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Remain Modestly In Expansion
2Q2020 Final Headline Productivity Improved
A simple summary of the headlines for this release is that labor costs are growing slower than productivity on a quarter-over-quarter basis. On a year-over-year basis – the opposite is true.
July 2020 Trade Again Improved But Remains Deep In Contraction
29 August 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Now Under One Million
August 2020 Job Cuts: Highest Ever Jobs Lost-To-Date In A Single Year
Documentary Of The Week: Hidden Toll Of COVID-19
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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