Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 11.2 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 9.5 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- There is a path out of America’s COVID-19 mess – if we choose to take it
- These promising coronavirus treatments are saving lives
- Universities are struggling to rein in their Greek systems, as fraternities and sororities foster outbreaks.
- Coronavirus cases climb in the Midwest as more states report growing outbreaks
- Nearly 20% of recent coronavirus infections in South Korea are untraceable
- How clean is the air on planes?
- FDA Expands Remdesivir Approval for Moderate Cases of Coronavirus
- Is Better COVID-19 Testing Within Spitting Distance?
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 29 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 29 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 41,958 | 5,920,000 | 256,079 | 24,760,000 | 16.4% | 23.9% |
| Deaths** | 949 | 181,773 | 5,560 | 837,579 | 17.1% | 21.7% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.92* | 220.59* | ||||
* as of 25 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
There is a path out of America’s COVID-19 mess – if we choose to take it – National Geographic
For now, Americans must accept hard truths. We must keep modifying our behavior—all of us—to stop COVID-19 fatalities. The virus will keep disrupting normal life until a vaccine is developed and distributed in mass quantities, or unless we take a completely new approach to testing. That might not happen for months, or a year, perhaps longer. Just how significantly and how long our routines are upended depends in good measure on how much of the basics we follow right now.
… “We’re aiming for a situation where, with appropriate social distancing and mask-wearing, we’re able to restart critical components of the economy without seeing surges,” says Hilary Godwin, dean of the University of Washington School of Public Health. “What we learned is some types of activities may not be possible during this extended period of time—not just until we have a vaccine, but until we have [widespread] immunity.”
Large gatherings, particularly indoors, are among the activities that will have to wait. Where alcohol or shouting or singing is involved, “those are recipes for superspreading events,” Godwin says. (Here’s what ‘airborne coronavirus’ means, and how to protect yourself.)
Johns Hopkins’ Center for Health Security recently issued a 10-point plan to reboot America’s virus response. Its first item declared masks an essential civic responsibility—one that should be mandated where necessary. Evidence makes clear that face coverings dramatically reduce the odds of transmission. But “not all people are convinced of [mask] utility and importance,” says Caitlin Rivers, assistant professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins and lead author of the report.
FDA Removes Top Spokesperson After Blood Plasma Blunder – NPR
The Food and Drug Administration has removed a top communications official at the agency in the wake of misleading claims the agency made about a treatment for COVID-19.
Emily Miller was central in defending the FDA commissioner, Dr. Stephen Hahn, this week after he falsely said that blood plasma could lower the death rate from COVID-19 by more than a third. Hahn later apologized on Twitter. He remains on the job.
A statement from the FDA late Friday said only that Miller “remains an appointee at the FDA.” The ouster was first reported by The New York Times earlier Friday.
Miller had been in the position only 11 days. Her appointment was viewed in public health circles as further politicization of the agency at a crucial time in the COVID-19 pandemic. Miller’s past writings and experience at several conservative media organizations were seen as putting the agency’s credibility on the line as public skepticism about vaccines and treatments is growing.
Teachers Resign Across US Over Remote Learning Frustration, COVID-19 Fears – Newsweek
Veteran K-12 teachers in states across the U.S. are resigning and retiring at higher rates as schools begin reopening amid the coronavirus pandemic this fall, with educators citing the stress tied to remote learning, technical difficulties and COVID-19 health concerns.
Several teachers who recently resigned, retired or opted out of their jobs ahead of pandemic reopening efforts say leaving their kids has been hard, but remote learning has made their jobs too difficult. One Florida teacher said she became paranoid due to the constant requirement of being live-streamed to dozens of students throughout all hours of the day. And an Arizona high school science teacher said he resigned from a job he loves after his district voted to return students to in-person classroom learning—creating a health risk he and many other teachers say they aren’t willing to take.
Several K-12 teachers said much of the joy they received from personal interaction with students has been undermined or eliminated altogether by teaching through a computer screen rather than a classroom.
These promising coronavirus treatments are saving lives – National Geographic
Of the hundreds of research efforts seeking to validate COVID-19 remedies, one based at the University of Oxford appears to be the early standard-bearer when it comes to separating hope from hype. The Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy (RECOVERY) trial is an extensive effort within the United Kingdom to test treatments for COVID-19.
One of the drugs among the array of possible treatments being tested is the steroid dexamethasone. COVID-19 can trigger an overzealous immune response, and like other steroids, dexamethasone can blunt and modify such a reaction. On June 16, the team published their early results about dexamethasone, which showed that among COVID-19 patients requiring oxygen or mechanical ventilation, dexamethasone cut the risk of death by a third, compared to standard therapy alone. For people with milder cases who don’t need oxygen support, dexamethasone doesn’t seem to help—and might even make things worse. But in the most severe cases, dexamethasone represents a potential lifeline.
How has RECOVERY arrived at clear answers, when other trials in the age of COVID-19 have faltered? Landray says that it’s become unwieldy to launch clinical trials, from lengthy and complicated consent forms to the cumbersome amount of data collected per patient. The RECOVERY trial, by contrast, was designed to be pragmatic—bare-bones, even—to recruit as many patients as possible. That’s valuable for a clinical trial because the larger the sample size, the likelier that researchers will see a verifiable signal of a treatment’s effectiveness. In partnership with the U.K.’s National Health Service, the RECOVERY trial successfully has recruited about 15,000 patients so far, which Landray says amounts to one in six of the U.K.’s hospitalized COVID-19 cases since the trial began.
Universities are struggling to rein in their Greek systems, as fraternities and sororities foster outbreaks. – New York Times
Colleges across the country are handing down suspensions and mandated quarantines as outbreaks at fraternity and sororities jeopardize fall reopening plans.
Health officials in Riley County, Kan., announced on Friday that 22 students affiliated with four sororities at Kansas State University had tested positive, and recommended that all members of the affected houses begin a two-week quarantine.
In Idaho, Boise State University revealed in a statement on Friday that three fraternities and a handful of students had been placed on interim suspensions in connection to “large gatherings that violated university policies.”
And Indiana University said on Thursday that it was requiring all Greek houses at its Bloomington campus to suspend “in-person organizational activities” after an alarming rise in new cases. The university also directed members of eight Greek organizations to quarantine.
The New York Times has tracked more than 26,000 cases of the virus linked to students returning to colleges, and the latest outbreaks underscore the challenges universities face in trying to regulate student behavior.
Coronavirus cases climb in the Midwest as more states report growing outbreaks – CNBC
- Coronavirus cases in the Midwest are increasing following warnings from top U.S. health officials.
- Coronavirus cases were growing by 5% or more, based on a weekly average to smooth out daily reporting, in 21 states as of Saturday, according to a CNBC analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University.
- Several Midwestern states were among those reporting growing cases— Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio and South Dakota.
Nearly 20% of recent coronavirus infections in South Korea are untraceable, KCDC says – COVID19data
There were 323 new coronavirus infections recorded in South Korea on Friday — 308 of which were local transmissions, according to the nation’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).
It comes as health authorities announced they have been unable to trace 19.4% of the country’s total confirmed cases over the past two weeks, with epidemiological investigators still working to figure out the infection routes, KCDC Vice Director Kwon Joon-wook said.
So far, 1,018 confirmed cases have been linked to Seoul’s Sarang-jeil Church infection cluster, while another 307 are linked to anti-government rallies in Seoul on August 15, according to the KCDC.
The national tally of confirmed Covid-19 cases stands at 19,400. South Korea’s coronavirus death toll is 321.
How clean is the air on planes? – National Geographic
High-tech HEPA filters and low-tech masks: How technology and personal responsibility might make flying safer than you think.
“Typically the number of particles in the air are [sic] really low, the plane is almost a clean room, because there’s so much ventilation, and very few sources of particulate generation within a plane,” says Liam Bates, CEO and co-founder of Kaiterra, an air-quality monitor manufacturer. “[Planes] are actually safer than virtually any other confined space.”
… HEPA’s 99.97 percent filtration effectiveness sounds reassuring, and airline execs count on that. But the biggest problem with those systems, says Bates, is that the “filter only guarantees the quality of the air that has passed through it. If the air that someone breathes in has not gone through that filter, then those numbers don’t matter.”
That’s why, in addition to good filters, airline cabins also need good passengers. This means everyone onboard should wear a mask.
That’s both because of masks’ proven protective qualities and the fact that HEPA filters and rapid-air circulation don’t work at max effectiveness until the plane is airborne. This means that the sometimes-interminable period between grabbing your seat and takeoff (or between landing and disembarking) is when you’re most likely to inhale a cloud of air from a person infected with COVID-19. That stale, warm air you occasionally notice when a plane is on the ground sitting at the gate or idling might mean there’s little circulation through those filters.
CDC director says vaccine supply will be constrained at first – CNBC
Once a coronavirus vaccine proves safe and effective, and is authorized by the Food and Drug Administration for public distribution, it will still likely be in scarce supply, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dr. Robert Redfield said.
The U.S. has so far invested more than $10 billion in six vaccine candidates through Operation Warp Speed, the Trump Administration’s effort to accelerate the development, manufacturing and distribution of vaccines and treatments to fight the coronavirus. The goal of the initiative is to provide 300 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. Drug manufacturers have made “hundreds of thousands” of doses for the U.S. so far, U.S. officials said Friday.
“At first, there will likely be a limited supply of one or more of the Covid-19 vaccines, because limited doses will be available,” Redfield said on a conference call with reporters. “It’s important that the early vaccines are distributed in a fair, ethical and transparent way.”
The federal government is now considering how to prioritize different groups of the population for distribution of a vaccine. On Wednesday, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices discussed one strategy, which would prioritize health-care workers, essential personnel and vulnerable Americans, such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
FDA Expands Remdesivir Approval for Moderate Cases of Coronavirus – Newsweek
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced Friday that it was expanding its emergency use authorization (EUA) for experimental COVID-19 drug remdesivir to include all hospitalized patients.
Remdesivir was approved for emergency use in patients with severe COVID-19 in May, after a clinical trial suggested that the drug could shorten the time it takes for patients to recover from the illness. In announcing the updated the EUA on Friday, the FDA said that it is “reasonable to believe” that the drug “may be effective for the treatment of suspected or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in all hospitalized adult and pediatric patients.”
“The FDA continues to make safe and potentially helpful treatments for COVID-19 available as quickly as possible in order to help patients,” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said in a statement. “The data to support today’s action are encouraging. The data show that this treatment has the potential to help even more hospitalized patients who are suffering from the effects of this devastating virus.”
Is Better COVID-19 Testing Within Spitting Distance? – MedPage
Self-collected saliva specimens from COVID-19 patients carried more SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA than in nasopharyngeal swabs, researchers said.
Saliva-based testing also successfully detected the virus in asymptomatic patients, reported Anne Wyllie, PhD, of the Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Connecticut, and colleagues in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Analyzing samples from 70 inpatients with COVID-19, more viral RNA was detected in saliva specimens (5.58 mean log copies/mL, 95% CI 5.09-6.07) versus nasopharyngeal swabs (4.93 mean log copies/mL, 95% CI 4.53-5.33).
Moreover, the saliva test detected SARS-CoV-2 RNA in 13 of 456 asymptomatic healthcare workers. Nine of those 13 individuals had also collected their own nasopharyngeal swab samples, seven of which tested negative.
In addition, Wyllie and colleagues reported less variation in the levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in saliva versus nasopharyngeal specimens.
The authors highlighted a particular benefit for healthcare professionals if their data bears out, both clinically and in terms of supplies: “Collection of saliva samples by patients themselves negates the need for direct interaction between healthcare workers and patients,” as that interaction “presents a risk of nosocomial infection.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
European leaders weigh new lockdowns as alarming caseloads return.
As Italy’s surge grows, migrants are drawing a backlash, though cases tied to them are ‘minimal.’
Berlin police break up ‘anti-corona’ protest against Covid-19 restrictions
In Brazil’s Javari Valley, isolated communities fear Covid-19 ‘catastrophe’
Ukraine reports record daily rise in coronavirus cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Reviving Air Travel And Florida Tourism
More than 500 visitors to Nevada have tested positive for COVID-19 since June: officials
California launches plan to reopen in slower phases after surge in coronavirus cases
Secret Service grapples with coronavirus cases among agents traveling for Trump events: report
Univ. of Alabama Emphasizes Quarantine Protocols, 1K Students Test Positive
J&J to begin phase two vaccine trials in Europe next week
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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