Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 15.6 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.6 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- CDC drops 14-day self-quarantine recommendation for international and out-of-state travelers
- In the Brazilian Amazon, a sharp drop in coronavirus sparks questions over collective immunity
- Majority of nursing homes say they won’t last another year under current financial conditions: survey
- AstraZeneca denies White House is fast-tracking its Covid-19 vaccine
- EPA approves a virus-killing coating for American Airlines, studies use by schools
- Diabetes Drugs Looking for Broad Role in COVID-19
- Flu-season testing delays could make it easier for the virus to spread undetected
- More pain ahead for landlords as restaurant bankruptcies poised to balloon in coming months
- Oxford coronavirus vaccine ‘could go before regulators by the end of the year’
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 25 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 25 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 43,226 | 5,740,000 | 252,749 | 23,670,000 | 17.1% | 24.3% |
| Deaths** | 473 | 177,279 | 4,487 | 813,944 | 10.5% | 21.8% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.06* | 218.68* | ||||
* as of 24 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Coronavirus re-infections raise concerns about immunity – Reuters
Two European patients are confirmed to have been re-infected with the coronavirus, raising concerns about people’s immunity to the virus as the world struggles to tame the pandemic.
The cases, in Belgium and the Netherlands, follow a report this week by researchers in Hong Kong about a man there who had been re-infected with a different strain of the virus four and a half months after being declared recovered – the first such re-infection to be documented.
That has fuelled fears about the effectiveness of potential vaccines against the virus, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people, though experts say there would need to be many more cases of re-infection for these to be justified.
Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst said the Belgian case was a woman who had contracted COVID-19 for the first time in March and then again with a different coronavirus strain in June. Further cases of re-infection were likely to surface, he said.
Van Ranst told Reuters TV the woman in her 50s had very few antibodies after the first infection, although they might have limited the sickness. Re-infection cases were probably limited exceptions, he said, although it was too soon to tell and many were likely to surface in coming weeks.
CDC drops 14-day self-quarantine recommendation for international and out-of-state travelers – The Washington Post
Since March, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has advised travelers to self-quarantine for 14 days after all international travel, and after domestic travel to states seeing a high rate of coronavirus cases. But the CDC has changed that stance, removing the directions for two-week quarantines from the “After You Travel” section of its coronavirus travel guidance.
Instead, they share “after-travel” recommendations based on individual countries. A map of country-specific health information can be found on the CDC website, and includes a map of reported cases in the United States.
In an email, CDC spokesman Scott Pauley told The Washington Post: “This updated guidance is based on risk of exposure during travel, asking travelers to think about what they did, where they were, and who they came into contact with to evaluate their risk of exposure to covid-19.”
In the Brazilian Amazon, a sharp drop in coronavirus sparks questions over collective immunity – The Washington Post
The human destruction in the Brazilian city of Manaus would be “catastrophic,” physician Geraldo Felipe Barbosa feared.
But then, unexpectedly, it started to let up — without the interventions seen elsewhere.
Hospitalizations of coronavirus patients plummeted in the state from a peak of more than 1,300 in May to fewer than 300 in August. Excess deaths in Manaus fell from around 120 per day to practically zero. The city closed its field hospital.
In a country devastated by the novel coronavirus, where more than 3.6 million people have been infected and over 114,000 killed, the reversal has stunned front-line doctors. Manaus never imposed a lockdown or other strict containment measures employed successfully in Asia and Europe. And what policies did exist, many people ignored.
The factors that are helping to keep the virus at bay in Manaus and other cities remain unclear. Changed behaviors and individual community characteristics surely play a role. Manaus is testing far more than it once did. But whatever the dynamic, scientists and health officials are starting to wonder whether early prognostications about herd immunity overshot the mark.
It was initially believed that between 60 and 70 percent of the population needed to develop antibodies to reach collective immunity. But Guayaquil never broke 33 percent. Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state, never got past 20.
Majority of nursing homes say they won’t last another year under current financial conditions: survey – Fierce Healthcare
A majority of long-term care providers indicated they won’t last another year under current financial conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, a recent survey found.
In the national surveys conducted by the American Health Care Association (AHCA) and National Center for Assisted Living (NCAL), 72% of responding nursing homes and 64% of assisted living facilities indicated they “can’t sustain another year at the current pace of increased costs and revenue loss.”
At least 40% of nursing homes indicated they couldn’t sustain another six months under the current conditions.
The surveys also found:
- 55% of nursing home respondents said they were operating at a loss and 89% of nursing homes said were operating a profit margin of 3% or less. Meanwhile, 50% of assisted living facilities said they were operating at a loss while 73% had a profit margin of 3% of less.
- The top drivers of increased expenses for nursing homes include PPE (97%) staff pay (78%) and additional staff (46%). The top drivers of increased expenses for assisted living facilities is also PPE (95%), staff “hero pay” (55%) and cleaning supplies (50%).
- 93% of nursing homes reported government funding is extremely or very important to help with COVID-related losses for their company.
AstraZeneca denies White House is fast-tracking its Covid-19 vaccine – Politico
AstraZeneca says it hasn’t talked to the U.S. government about an emergency use authorization for its coronavirus vaccine — a day after news reports that the Trump administration may greenlight the vaccine’s use before the election.
“It would be premature to speculate on that possibility,” the pharmaceutical company said in a statement.
The rumors about imminent authorization of the AstraZeneca vaccine come at a tricky time for the FDA. President Donald Trump is urging the FDA to move faster on coronavirus shots, and FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn is working to build up the public’s confidence that it won’t sacrifice safety or efficacy for speed.
But it’s not clear whether the agency is bearing up under White House pressure. The FDA held off last week on authorizing emergency use of blood plasma for coronavirus patients over concerns that data supporting its use was thin. Days later, the agency reversed itself — after Trump accused it of slow-walking the authorization to harm his reelection chances.
“Data is driving the development of all COVID-19 countermeasures. Careless talk about career F.D.A. experts somehow approving an unsafe and ineffective vaccine just for politics only undermines confidence in the public health system,” HHS spokesperson Michael Caputo said in a statement Monday.
AstraZeneca vaccine data could be ready for review this year, leading scientist says – CNBC
Data on a vaccine candidate from AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford could be ready for regulatory review as soon as this year, Andrew Pollard, a scientist leading the trials, said, according to Reuters.
“It is just possible that if the cases accrue rapidly in the clinical trials, that we could have that data before regulators this year, and then there would be a process that they go through in order to make a full assessment of the data,” Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, told BBC Radio, Reuters reported.
Over the weekend, the Financial Times reported that President Donald Trump’s administration is considering fast-tracking AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections. The FT report cited three people briefed on the plan.
Thousands allowed to bypass environmental rules in pandemic – AP
Thousands of oil and gas operations, government facilities and other sites have won permission to stop monitoring for hazardous emissions or otherwise bypass rules intended to protect health and the environment because of the coronavirus outbreak, The Associated Press has found.
The result: approval for less environmental monitoring at some Texas refineries and at an army depot dismantling warheads armed with nerve gas in Kentucky, manure piling up and the mass disposal of livestock carcasses at farms in Iowa and Minnesota, and other increased risks to communities as governments eased enforcement over smokestacks, medical waste shipments, sewage plants, oilfields and chemical plants.
The Trump administration paved the way for the reduced monitoring March 26 after being pressured by the oil and gas industry, which said lockdowns and social distancing during the pandemic made it difficult to comply with pollution rules. States are responsible for much of the oversight of federal environmental laws, and many followed with their own policies.
AP’s two-month review found that waivers were granted in more than 3,000 cases, representing the overwhelming majority of requests citing the outbreak. Hundreds were approved for oil and gas companies. AP reached out to all 50 states citing open-records laws; all but one, New York, provided at least partial information, reporting the data in differing ways and with varying level of detail.
EPA approves a virus-killing coating for American Airlines, studies use by schools – Reuters
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Monday it has granted emergency approval for American Airlines (AAL.O) to use a disinfectant against the coronavirus on certain surfaces that lasts for up to seven days, and is studying whether it could be effective in places like schools.
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said at a news briefing that SurfaceWise2, made by Allied BioScience Inc, is the first long-lasting product approved by the agency to help fight the spread of the novel coronavirus.
American Airlines will begin spraying its airplane cabins with the disinfectant in its home base of Texas after the state filed the request for emergency approval. The carrier hopes to eventually use it across its entire fleet, including its American Eagle regional partners.
The spray does not eliminate the need for cleaning, officials said.
Southwest Airlines (LUV.N), also based in Texas, has been using a two-step process in its cabins that involves an EPA-approved disinfectant spray followed by a separate antimicrobial spray that coats surfaces for at least 30 days.
Diabetes Drugs Looking for Broad Role in COVID-19 – MedPage
Antidiabetic drugs may have a role in guarding organs affected by COVID-19, researchers say, with trials now underway to confirm it.
“Because it’s a viral disease, we see a lot of emphasis on antiviral therapies. But it’s also a systemic disease — in fact a cardiometabolic disease,” said Mikhail Kosiborod, MD, of Saint Luke’s Mid America Heart Institute in Kansas City, Missouri, speaking at the virtual Heart in Diabetes meeting.
It’s still unclear exactly why COVID-19 has been more severe and more often fatal in diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases.
COVID-19 attacks the same systems damaged by metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes, “probably predisposing patients to developing more severe pathology during the infection,” noted a perspective in Nature Metabolism.
It’s not just diminished immune function from those chronic conditions, but also synergy in causing inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and kidney injury, for example, wrote Janelle Ayres, PhD, of the Salk Institute for Biological Studies in La Jolla, California.
Flu-season testing delays could make it easier for the virus to spread undetected. – New York Times
Come fall, the rise of influenza and other seasonal respiratory infections could exacerbate already staggering delays in coronavirus testing, making it easier for the virus to spread unnoticed, experts said.
In typical years, doctors often don’t test for flu, simply assuming that patients with coughs, fevers and fatigue during the winter months are probably carrying the highly infectious virus. But this year, with the coronavirus bringing similar symptoms, doctors will need to test for both viruses to diagnose their patients, further straining supply shortages.
Testing for individual viruses poses many challenges for doctors and laboratory workers already fighting their way through supply shortages. Several of these tests use similar machines and chemicals, and require handling and processing by trained personnel.
More pain ahead for landlords as restaurant bankruptcies poised to balloon in coming months – CNBC
- Industry analysts and restructuring experts say another wave of restaurant bankruptcies is looming, as government funds run out and the cooler months roll around, making the outdoor dining less viable.
- “Pre-pandemic, you were already over-saturated with restaurants,” said Michael Jerbich, president of B. Riley Real Estate. “Then the pandemic comes, and you have the perfect storm.”
- Some restaurant landlords have struck short-term deals with their tenants, dramatically slashing base rent and asking for a percentage of sales instead because they know it could be tough to find new tenants.
Oxford coronavirus vaccine ‘could go before regulators by the end of the year’ – Metro
There may be enough data about the Oxford coronavirus vaccine for it to go before regulators by the end of the year. Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said the timeframe was ‘just possible’. His comments came after England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, said a vaccine for coronavirus may not be ready until next winter. Clinical trials are currently ongoing for the potential vaccine from Oxford University.
Colombia joins a clinical study alongside US and Belgium to develop a coronavirus vaccine – COVID19data
Colombia announced Monday it is joining a clinical study to develop a vaccine against coronavirus.
The study will be conducted by multinational pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson across Colombia, the United States, and Belgium, according to Health Minister Fernando Ruiz.
About 60,000 volunteers between 18 and 60 years old in these three countries will take part in the study, which will consist of a single dose of the vaccine candidate.
“We have been having conversations (with Johnson & Johnson) for weeks, and we are also speaking with other pharmaceuticals at this moment,” Ruiz said.Earlier this month, Colombian President Ivan Duque announced the country would not reach out to Russia for a vaccine, opting instead to work with the World Health Organization to secure as many vaccine doses as possible.
Pandemic Could Set Tourism Sector Back by $1 Trillion – Statista
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres released a new report today that draws on UNWTO data to quantify the devastating impact that the coronavirus pandemic has had on global tourism. It warns that up to 120 million tourism jobs are at risk, with the economic damage likely to exceed $1 trillion in 2020 alone.
“It is imperative that we rebuild the tourism sector,” Mr. Guterres said, in order for it to “regain its position as a provider of decent jobs, stable incomes and the protection of our cultural and natural heritage.” The UN Secretary-General stressed tourism’s role as one of the most important economic sectors, providing livelihoods to hundreds of millions of people while “boosting economies and enabling countries to thrive.”
Due to restrictions imposed in March when the coronavirus started spreading rapidly around the world, international travel came to a screeching halt in April and May, resulting in international tourist arrivals that trailed last year’s total by almost 60 percent through the first five months of 2020. Depending on when travel restrictions will be fully lifted, the World Tourism Organization expects international tourism receipts (i.e. spending by international tourists) to drop between $910 billion and $1.2 trillion this year, which would set the global tourism industry back by 20 years.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Pennsylvania Governor Calls For State To Legalize Marijuana, Citing Pandemic
Less than half of San Francisco storefront businesses open at start of pandemic still operating
States alarmed by talk of FEMA considering end to protective equipment reimbursements
American Airlines to cut 19,000 jobs in October
Nearly half of Americans say they have saved more or paid down debt during pandemic: poll
FDA Provides Testing Method to Check for Potentially Toxic Hand Sanitizers
UNC Doubles Coronavirus Positivity Rate Within 2 Weeks of Classes Reopening
University of Alabama Reports 566 COVID-19 Cases a Week After Classes Start
566 coronavirus cases reported at University of Alabama in less than a week since classes started
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Again Declines
August 2020 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves
July 2020 Headline New Home Sales Get Stronger
S and P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index June 2020 Year-over-Year Growth Slows
“Powerful Deflationary Winds” Include A “Bust In Commodity Prices”
Retailers Face Mass Extinction In Pandemic FalloutRetailers Face Mass Extinction In Pandemic Fallout
College students head back home a week into classes as coronavirus cases on campus climb
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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