Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 12.1 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 5.1 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- How the Pandemic Has Immeasurably Altered Our Relationship With Tech
- WHO says 172 countries now engaged with global vaccine plan
- Academic Medical Centers Step Up to Treat, Prevent COVID-19
- Europe limited mass job losses for a few months, but now a wave is coming
- FDA Authorizes Convalescent Plasma for COVID-19 Patients
- Rural Hospitals Are Sinking Under COVID-19 Financial Pressures
- For Quick Coronavirus Testing, Israel Turns to a Clever Algorithm
- Some Benefit for Remdesivir in ‘Moderate’ COVID-19
- Retailers Face Mass Extinction in Pandemic Fallout
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 24 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 24 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 42,763 | 5,700,000 | 247,713 | 23,440,000 | 17.3% | 24.3% |
| Deaths** | 444 | 176,806 | 3,732 | 809,422 | 11.9% | 21.8% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.5% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.25* | 214.75* | ||||
* as of 22 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
First Case of COVID-19 Reinfection Confirmed – MedPage
A 33-year-old man in Hong Kong may represent the first confirmed case of reinfection, researchers in Hong Kong said.
The man was diagnosed with COVID-19 on March 26, hospitalized, then recovered. He tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 again on August 15, and whole genome sequencing of viral isolates from the two episodes indicated they were from different clades, reported Kwok-Yung Yuen, MD, of the University of Hong Kong, and colleagues in a manuscript they said had been accepted for publication in Clinical Infectious Diseases, but not yet published.
That is almost unassailable evidence that the man was infected a second time, and another indication, albeit far from definitive, that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may not last very long.
Interestingly, the patient was asymptomatic during his second infection, the authors said.
Reinfection was suspected in a few previous cases of COVID-19, but never documented. Many experts believed what appeared to be reinfection was simply prolonged infection. But these researchers could not be more clear.
How the Pandemic Has Immeasurably Altered Our Relationship With Tech – Shondaland
When the U.S. screeched to a halt in March 2020 as a result of the pandemic, technology spared the world from a complete and total shutdown. From Zoom meetings to e-commerce to VR concerts, technology kept us connected and kept businesses running. We could continue taking workout classes via Instagram Live and Zoom, seeing our doctors face to face through video calls, and even hanging out together in virtual chat rooms. For those of us who live alone, it spared us from complete aloneness.
- One-stop living via tech [social media expansion, virtual meetings, virtual schooling, working from home]
- Shop ’till you virtually drop
- Fitness class is in virtual session
China has been giving key workers experimental vaccine since July, says health official – Independent
China has been administering an experimental coronavirus vaccine on essential workers since July, one of the country’s top health officials has revealed.
Medical staff and border inspection officials are among the key workers to have received the vaccine candidate, said the director of China’s National Health Commission Zheng Zhongwei.
He told state broadcaster CCTV it had been “in line with the law” to give high-risk workers jabs ever since the government approved the roll-out of “experimental use” vaccines on 22 July.
“Most cases in China now are imported, so border officials are a high-risk group,” said Mr Zheng – adding that those working in transport and at “wet markets” could be next in line for the vaccination programme.
The authorities could consider expanding the programme to try to prevent outbreaks during the autumn and winter, the official said.
WHO says 172 countries now engaged with global vaccine plan – CNBC
There are now 172 countries engaged with the World Health Organization-led COVAX plan that’s designed to ensure “a globally coordinated rollout” of Covid-19 vaccines that prove safe and effective, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
There are currently nine vaccines that are part of the COVAX facility, Tedros said, adding that nine more vaccines are under evaluation “to ensure access to the best possible range of products.” He said the coordinated distribution of a vaccine around the world is in the interest of all countries, including those that have already signed their own deals to acquire doses from vaccine developers.
“Initially, when there will be limited supply [of Covid-19 vaccines], it’s important to provide the vaccine to those at highest risk around the globe,” he said. “This doesn’t just pool risk. It also means that prices will be kept as low as possible.”
He added that the COVAX plan needs more funding and that investing in the facility is “the fastest way to end this pandemic.”
Academic Medical Centers Step Up to Treat, Prevent COVID-19 – MedPage
During the course of the pandemic, medical centers spun out new treatment protocols on the fly. Now the institutions are racing to develop potential vaccines and therapeutics, and using big data to tailor their treatments to individual patients, physician leaders told The Hill during an online panel discussion Wednesday afternoon, sponsored by the the Association of American Medical Colleges.
Meanwhile, facilities are simultaneously grappling with supply shortages and racial disparities in health outcomes. Some have found innovative solutions to address the former, while resolving to remain committed to the latter.
SARS-CoV-2 is in fact a “novel” coronavirus, said Selwyn Vickers, MD, dean of the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) School of Medicine. “Novel meant … creating our own road maps as we walked. We didn’t have drugs initially to treat it, we didn’t know all the organs that it damaged, and we didn’t know a great deal about its transmissibility and how robust it was,” he said.
Academic medical centers began designing their own treatment protocols because there was no textbook paradigm for managing the virus. Those protocols were then spread throughout a state and later the country, he said.
The vast expertise and resources of some academic medical centers helped them to weather certain supply shortages.
Europe limited mass job losses for a few months, but now a wave is coming. – New York Times
When European countries ordered businesses to close and employees to stay home as the coronavirus spread, governments took aggressive steps to shield workers from the prospect of mass joblessness, extending billions to businesses to keep people employed.
The layoffs are coming anyway.
A tsunami of job cuts is about to hit Europe as companies prepare to carry out sweeping downsizing plans to offset a collapse in business. Government-backed furlough programs that have helped keep about a third of Europe’s work force financially secure are set to unwind in the coming months.
As many as 59 million jobs are at risk of cuts in hours or pay, temporary furloughs or permanent layoffs, especially in industries like transportation and retail, according to a study by McKinsey & Company.
FDA Authorizes Convalescent Plasma for COVID-19 Patients – MedPage
Convalescent plasma shows promising efficacy in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and the benefits outweigh the risks, the FDA said in announcing emergency use authorization (EUA) for such products on Sunday.
The EUA was granted to the Office of Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response within the Department of Health and Human Services. It is not for any particular convalescent plasma product, but rather any such preparation “collected by FDA registered blood establishments from individuals whose plasma contains anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and who meet all donor eligibility requirements,” according to a fact sheet for healthcare providers.
“Independent experts at the FDA who reviewed the totality of data” including more than a dozen published studies “concluded convalescent plasma is safe and shows promising efficacy, thereby meeting criteria for an emergency use authorization,” FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn, MD, said at a press conference on Sunday night.
The agency noted the EUA was based on historical evidence of convalescent plasma in prior outbreaks of respiratory viruses, preclinical evidence, small trials conducted during the outbreak (including some in China), and the ongoing National Expanded Access Protocol (EAP) sponsored by the Mayo Clinic.
The FDA also added that COVID-19 convalescent plasma with “high antibody titer” may be effective in reducing mortality in hospitalized patients, but low antibody titer units may also be used, based on a healthcare provider’s discretion. In fact, convalescent plasma is only defined as “human plasma collected … from individuals whose plasma contains anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies” and meet all donor eligibility requirements. Preparations’ labels must indicate whether they contain high or low titers.
[editor’s note: see next two headlines below]
WHO cautious on COVID-19 plasma as U.S. issues emergency authorization – Reuters
The World Health Organization on Monday was cautious about endorsing the use of recovered COVID-19 patients’ plasma to treat those who are ill, saying evidence it works remains “low quality” even as the United States issued emergency authorization for such therapies.
So-called convalescent plasma, which has long been used to treat diseases, has emerged as the latest political flashpoint in the race to find therapies for COVID-19.
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) on Sunday authorized its use after President Donald Trump blamed the agency for impeding the roll-out of vaccines and therapeutics for political reasons.
The technique involves taking antibody-rich plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 and giving it to those who are suffering from severe active infections in hopes they will recover more quickly.
Soumya Swaminathan, WHO chief scientist, said only a few clinical trials of convalescent plasma have produced results, and the evidence, at least so far, has not been convincing enough to endorse it beyond use as an experimental therapy. While a few trials have showed some benefit, she said, they have been small and their data, so far, inconclusive.
Trump Announcement on Convalescent Plasma Blasted by Scientists – Newsweek
On Sunday, Dr. Thomas M. File president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America said in a statement that while the data shows “some positive signals” that it could be helpful in treating COVID-19 patients, particularly those in the early stages of the disease, “we lack the randomized controlled trial data we need to better understand its utility in COVID-19 treatment.”
“For this reason, IDSA supports the continued collection of data in randomized clinical trials to better understand the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment before authorizing its wider use in patients with COVID-19,” he said.
Duncan Young, a professor of intensive care medicine at the University of Oxford, U.K., told Newsweek: “The biggest problem with an EUA for convalescent plasma therapy is that we will not know if it works, as the EUA essentially causes clinicians to give the treatment rather than entering patients in clinical trials. There may also be a rationing problem as it may be in short supply.”
Echoing their concerns, the Journal of the American Medical Association tweeted an explainer article on the treatment, alongside the message: “People who’ve had #COVID19 develop anti-#SARSCoV2 antibodies in plasma, the yellow liquid portion of blood. This convalescent plasma can be transfused into COVID19 patients, but the effectiveness of the treatment hasn’t yet been shown in RCTs [randomized control trials].”
Rural Hospitals Are Sinking Under COVID-19 Financial Pressures – NPR
As COVID-19 continues to spread, an increasing number of rural communities in the U.S. find themselves without their hospital or on the brink of losing already cash-strapped facilities.
Eighteen rural hospitals closed last year and the first three months of 2020 were “really big months,” says Mark Holmes, director of the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. Many of the losses are in Southern states, including Florida and Texas, he says, and more than 170 rural hospitals have closed nationwide since 2005, according to data collected by the Sheps Center.
It’s a dangerous scenario. “We know that a closure leads to higher mortality pretty quickly” among the populations served, says Holmes, who is also a professor at UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health. “That’s pretty clear.”
One 2019 study found that death rates in the surrounding communities increase nearly 6% after a rural hospital closes — and that’s when there’s not a pandemic.
For Quick Coronavirus Testing, Israel Turns to a Clever Algorithm – New York Times
A team of three Israeli scientists has pioneered a coronavirus testing procedure that they say is faster and more efficient than any now in use, testing samples in pools of as many as 48 people at once.
The Israeli government plans to roll out the new method in 12 labs across the country by October, anticipating that another wave of coronavirus infections could coincide with influenza season with potentially calamitous results.
“We’re doing everything we can in order to be ready,” said Ronen Walfisch, an engineer at the defense ministry who oversaw a pilot project to test the method’s efficacy. The method passed with flying colors, he said.
Moran Szwarcwort Cohen, who runs the virology lab at Rambam Health Care Campus in Haifa, said the new pooled-testing method, which was formally approved for clinical use by the Israeli health ministry on Tuesday, could allow schools, college campuses, businesses and airlines to clear whole groups of people far faster than has been possible until now.
… The Israeli method, by contrast, is designed to only require one round of testing — a crucial savings in time, laboratory work flow and supplies.
It accomplishes that by building on a combinatorial algorithm that one of the three scientists, Noam Shental of the Open University of Israel, in Raanana, developed a decade ago to speed the detection of rare genetic mutations. It works much like error-detecting codes that filter out noise in telecommunications and computer science.
Some Benefit for Remdesivir in ‘Moderate’ COVID-19 – MedPage
[editor’s note: three Remdesivir trials produced three different results]
Hospitalized COVID-19 patients receiving a shorter course of remdesivir were significantly more likely to experience clinical improvement than patients receiving standard care, an open-label randomized trial found.
On day 11, patients with “moderate” COVID-19 infection randomized to a 5-day course of remdesivir had significantly higher odds of a change in clinical status versus patients receiving standard care (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.09-2.48, P=0.02), reported Diana Brainard, MD, of Gilead Sciences in Foster City, California, and colleagues.
However, there was no significant change in clinical status versus standard of care with the 10-day course of remdesivir, the authors noted in JAMA.
Retailers Face Mass Extinction in Pandemic Fallout – Statista
While overall retail sales in the United States have rebounded relatively quickly following an unprecedented dip due to the COVID-19 pandemic, some retail categories are still trailing 2019 sales levels by a significant margin halfway through 2020. Sales of clothing and accessories stores for example have been almost 40 percent lower in the first six months of 2020 compared to the previous year, with electronics retailers and bookstores also heavily hit by the pandemic.
The temporary freeze in consumer spending as well as the gradual shift to online shopping accelerated by stay-at-home orders could turn out to be the final nail in the coffin for many struggling retailers. According to estimates from Coresight Research, a market intelligence company focusing on the retail industry, retail store closures could spike this year, with the company’s latest forecast predicting 20,000 to 25,000 stores to shutter this year.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
South Korea’s capital on Monday ordered masks to be worn in both indoor and outdoor public places
13 Killed In Stampede At Peru Nightclub Operating Against Health Orders
Venice Tourist Forcibly Removed From Boat for Refusing to Wear a Face Mask
China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Rejects Claim Country Tried to Steal U.S. COVID-19 Data
Kentucky Man Could Face $750K Fine for Allegedly Breaking Canada COVID Rule
Covid outbreak hits nudists at France’s ‘Naked City’
South Korea stops in-person classes at almost 2,000 schools
South Korean President warns that country is facing a virus crisis worse than the first wave
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
57% of Republicans, 33% of independents and 10% of Democrats think the U.S. death toll from the virus is “acceptable.”
Nearly a fifth of enrollees in Pfizer, BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine study are Black or Latino
Childcare Centers in States With Little COVID Can Safely Reopen, Study Suggests
53 Coronavirus Cases Reportedly Linked To Maine Wedding Reception
As Florida Combats COVID-19, Thousands Will Attend Miami Dolphins Games
Fauci says Pence listens to him even though he’s ‘the skunk at the picnic’
Zoom reports widespread outages impacting schools, hearings
Over 100 Nudists Infected With COVID-19 After Outbreak at Naturist Resort
Google searches for anxiety soared amid the pandemic, study finds
Federal student loan payments have been deferred through December
In the Hamptons, some hosts are paying for party guests to take rapid coronavirus tests at the door
Notre Dame sees spike in COVID-19 cases, which grew worse over the weekend
Duke University returns only 12 positives out of more than 4,400 students tested for Covid-19
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
July 2020 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Suggests Economic Growth Again Improved
July 2020 Trucking Still In Contraction Year-over-Year
Are Financially Distressed Areas More Affected By COVID-19?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus.htm’); ?>
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
