Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 11.7 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are worse and are now 2.7 % above the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- ‘The food supply chain is breaking
- First COVID-19, Then Myasthenia Gravis: Coincidence or Causal?
- ‘AeroNabs’ Promise Powerful, Inhalable Protection Against COVID-19
- U.S. has reached deal with Moderna for 100 million doses of coronavirus vaccine
- Coronavirus found on Ecuador shrimps in China
- ECMO Gets a Win in Severe COVID-19
- Child Coronavirus Cases Spiked by 90 Percent. It’s Likely Down to Two Key Reasons
- Many international headlines saying pandemic is worsening.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 12 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 12 August 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 46,813 | 5,140,000 | 255,679 | 20,330,000 | 18.3% | 25.3% |
Deaths** | 1,076 | 164,537 | 6,103 | 742,413 | 17.6% | 22.2% |
Mortality Rate | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.23* | 191.09* |
* as of 11 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
‘The food supply chain is breaking’: How Tyson Foods has tried to survive coronavirus – CNBC
Americans typically consumed more than 180 pounds of beef, pork and poultry in 2018, 10% more than in 1970. Plant-based meat retail sales were $760 million last year — a fraction of total meat and poultry sales. Whether it’s at your favorite fast-food restaurant or in the grocery aisle, one company that carnivores turn to again and again is Tyson Foods.
Tyson Foods is one of the world’s largest food companies, producing about 20% of the beef, pork and chicken in the U.S. It services restaurants and schools and sells brands like Jimmy Dean and Sara Lee in supermarkets.
In the spring, the 85-year-old food giant faced the perfect storm — higher production costs, lower levels of productivity and softer demand. Restaurants were closed as governments enforced social distancing rules. And in April, thousands of Tyson workers were infected with the coronavirus at processing plants. Facilities were forced to shut down, and meat shortages sprang up at grocery stores across the country.
… ″Covid-19 has exposed weaknesses in the meat system that people have been talking about for years but that have never been exposed as they were now,” said Christopher Leonard, author of “The Meat Racket.” “Essentially what Covid-19 showed was the profound fragility that happens when you move all of your production into as few slaughterhouses as possible.”
First COVID-19, Then Myasthenia Gravis: Coincidence or Causal? – MedPage
Myasthenia gravis, an autoimmune neurologic disorder, was associated with COVID-19 in three patients in Italy.
Symptoms of myasthenia gravis (MG) appeared 5 to 7 days after fever onset in three patients who had no previous neurologic or autoimmune disorders, reported Domenico Restivo, MD, PhS, of Garibaldi Hospital in Catania, and colleagues, in a case report in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
“This finding is important because the association between COVID-19 infection and myasthenia gravis has not been reported before,” Restivo said.
“The knowledge of such a possible association may help doctors to an earlier diagnosis of myasthenia gravis in patients with COVID-19 infection,” he told MedPage Today. “Moreover, these findings further underline the role of autoimmunity in neurological disorders associated with COVID-19 infection.”
Myasthenia gravis is an autoimmune disease in which antibodies bind to acetylcholine receptors (AChRs) or to functionally related molecules in the postsynaptic membrane at the neuromuscular junction, blocking signals transmitted from nerves to muscles. It causes fluctuating muscle weakness that can affect the respiratory system and can be debilitating.
New Study Finds Potential Reason Why COVID-19 Occurs Less In Children – ZeroHedge
The reason COVID-19 occurs less frequently in children could be due to the lack of a certain enzyme, researchers have found.
This new study detailed in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on May 20, discovered that the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which grows in abundance as the individual grows, might be the reason that less than two percent of all individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease – are children.
Researchers had suspected that COVID-19 susceptibility could be linked to the amount of gene expression of ACE2 seen in the nasal cavity, given that the enzyme acts as a receptor to allow the SARS-CoV-2 virus to pass into the body.
‘AeroNabs’ Promise Powerful, Inhalable Protection Against COVID-19 – UCSF
As the world awaits vaccines to bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control, UC San Francisco scientists have devised a novel approach to halting the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease.
Led by UCSF graduate student Michael Schoof, a team of researchers engineered a completely synthetic, production-ready molecule that straitjackets the crucial SARS-CoV-2 machinery that allows the virus to infect our cells. As reported in a new paper, now available on the preprint server bioRxiv, experiments using live virus show that the molecule is among the most potent SARS-CoV-2 antivirals yet discovered.
In an aerosol formulation they tested, dubbed “AeroNabs” by the researchers, these molecules could be self-administered with a nasal spray or inhaler. Used once a day, AeroNabs could provide powerful, reliable protection against SARS-CoV-2 until a vaccine becomes available. The research team is in active discussions with commercial partners to ramp up manufacturing and clinical testing of AeroNabs. If these tests are successful, the scientists aim to make AeroNabs widely available as an inexpensive, over-the-counter medication to prevent and treat COVID-19.
“Far more effective than wearable forms of personal protective equipment, we think of AeroNabs as a molecular form of PPE that could serve as an important stopgap until vaccines provide a more permanent solution to COVID-19,” said AeroNabs co-inventor Peter Walter, PhD, professor of biochemistry and biophysics at UCSF and a Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator. For those who cannot access or don’t respond to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, Walter added, AeroNabs could be a more permanent line of defense against COVID-19.
U.S. has reached deal with Moderna for 100 million doses of coronavirus vaccine – CNBC
- President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced the U.S. government will purchase 100 million doses of Moderna’s experimental coronavirus vaccine.
- Moderna separately said the deal for its vaccine, mRNA-1273, is worth $1.53 billion and will give the federal government the option to purchase up to 400 million additional doses.
- The U.S. government’s deal with Moderna follows similar agreements it’s made with pharmaceutical giants Pfizer, Johnson and Johnson and other drug makers for their potential Covid-19 vaccines.
Previous vaccines and masks may hold down Covid-19, some researchers say – CNN
As US leaders work to control the spread of coronavirus, researchers across the globe are working to answer the mysteries that remain around infections.
One of those mysteries: why the experience can be so different from person to person. One expert says the answer may involve looking at previous vaccines individuals have had.
“When we looked in the setting of Covid disease, we found that people who had prior vaccinations with a variety of vaccines — for pneumococcus, influenza, hepatitis and others — appeared to have a lower risk of getting Covid disease,” Dr. Andrew Badley, an infectious disease specialist at Mayo Clinic, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Monday night.
It’s what immunologists call immune training: how your immune system creates an effective response to fight off infections, Badley says.
“A good analogy is to think of your immune system as being a muscle,” he said. “The more you exercise that muscle, the stronger it will be when you need it.”
There’s been no definitive evidence of any other vaccines boosting immunity against Covid-19. But some researchers have suggested it’s possible.
In June, a team of researchers in the US proposed giving a booster dose of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine to people to see if it helps prevent the most severe effects of coronavirus infections. And last month, researchers found that countries where many people have been given the tuberculosis vaccine Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) had less mortality from coronavirus, a finding that fits with other research suggesting the vaccine can boost people’s immunity in general.
Coronavirus found on Ecuador shrimps in China, state media says – Reuters
A city in China’s eastern Anhui province found the novel coronavirus on the packaging of shrimps from Ecuador, state media reported on Wednesday, in the latest instance of the virus being detected on imported products.
The coronavirus was found on the outer packaging of frozen shrimps bought by a restaurant in Wuhu city when local authorities carried out a routine inspection, CCTV, China’s state television, said.
The news broke a day after a port city in eastern Shandong province said it found the virus on the packaging of imported frozen seafood, although it did not say where it originated.
Since July, several other Chinese cities have also reported cases, including the port cities of Xiamen and Dalian, prompting China to suspend imports from three Ecuadorean shrimp producers.
ECMO Gets a Win in Severe COVID-19 – MedPage
A certain approach to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) in COVID-19 patients showed a high success rate at two centers in Chicago, researchers reported.
Of 40 recipients, 29 (73%) were discharged from the hospital without any further need for oxygen, Antone J. Tatooles, MD, of Advocate Christ Medical Center in Oak Lawn, Illinois, and colleagues reported in JAMA Surgery.
All went off ventilator support, and 80% were no longer on ECMO by July 17. Six of the patients died (15%).
“Complications have been minimal, with no ischemic strokes, inotropic support, or tracheostomies,” they noted.
Pooled analysis of early reports had suggested much poorer outcomes, with mortality averaging 94.1%, although not significantly lower for other COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome patients at 70.9%.
Child Coronavirus Cases Spiked by 90 Percent. It’s Likely Down to Two Key Reasons – Newsweek
Hundreds of thousands of children have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in the U.S. since the start of the pandemic, according to a report. Of those, almost 200,000 were reported in the four weeks following July 9, marking a 90 percent increase in child cases.
A total of 380,174 child COVID-19 cases were reported between the start of the pandemic and August 6, making up 9.1 percent of all cases, or 501 per 100,000 children in the U.S., according to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association. The data came from 49 states, New York City, D.C., Puerto Rico, and Guam. Between July 9 and August 6, 179,990 new cases were reported.
The authors of the report noted that the definition of a “child” varied by state, between 0 to 14 and 0 to 24 years old.
Mirroring the evidence that has accumulated since the start of the pandemic that children are more likely to have mild COVID-19, fatalities were relatively low, at 0 to 0.4 percent of all deaths, with 20 states reporting none. In those that did report deaths, 0 to 0.5 percent of cases resulted in death.
… Increased testing may play a part. Alvaro Moreira, assistant professor in the department of pediatrics at UT Health, San Antonio, pointed out that children must provide proof they are coronavirus-free before they can attend some summer camps and daycare centers.
… Stephen Morse, professor of epidemiology at the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, told Newsweek he believed most of the increase in July—”probably essentially all”—is due to children encountering the virus more.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
New Outbreak In New Zealand Leads To New Rules And Supermarket Runs
Lebanon COVID-19 Cases Jump By More Than A Third In Week After Beirut Blast
Europe in Critical Moment, COVID-19 Cases Rise in Spain, France, Germany
South Korea’s New Covid-19 Bus Stops Look Like Willy Wonka’s Elevator
Sweden’s Coronavirus Herd Immunity ‘Nowhere in Sight,’ Researchers Say
Fauci: ‘I seriously doubt’ Russia has proven its new vaccine is safe and effective.
Jordan to Close Border With Syria After Spike in COVID-19 Cases
Germany says Russian COVID-19 vaccine has not been sufficiently tested
Brazilian state to sign agreement with Russia for coronavirus vaccine
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte says he would volunteer for trials of Russia’s Covid-19 vaccine
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Without Federal Protections, Farm Workers Risk Coronavirus Infection to Harvest Crops
Alyssa Milano says she is losing her hair after long battle with COVID-19
Mask dispute leads to couple’s assault on teen Sesame Place worker, police say
Running Low on New N95s? Reach for These Alternatives
The White House-Kodak Controversy Has a New Angle: A Billionaire’s Huge Stock Gift to a Synagogue
Florida Sheriff Orders Deputies And Staff Not To Wear Face Masks
Penn State Students Must Sign COVID Waiver Discharging Liability
If Phone Sex Isn’t Enough, Wear a Mask and Avoid Face-to-Face Positions
As U.S. schools reopen, New Jersey and Florida are a study in contrasts.
Stein Mart files for bankruptcy and plans to close most, if not all, of its stores
NBA Reports Zero Positives In Latest COVID-19 Testing
Big 12 to move forward with plans for fall football season
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Fed Wants Inflation But Their Actions Are Deflationary
We Need To Change Our COVID-19 Strategy
How To Use Ventilation And Air Filtration To Prevent The Spread Of Coronavirus Indoors
July 2020 CPI: Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Grows to 1.0%
Reconsidering The Phase One Trade Deal With China In The Midst Of The Pandemic
The Recent COVID-19 Spike And The U.S. Employment Slowdown
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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