Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 14.7 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are little changed and are now 0.1 % above the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Total U.S. coronavirus cases now over 5,000,000
- A review of the statistics for the past week
- Researchers created a test to determine which masks are the least effective
- Your immune system may already recognize the coronavirus
- How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
- 12 other international and national headlines
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 09 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 09 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 56,221 | 5,000,000 | 266,342 | 19,620,000 | 21.1% | 25.5% |
| Deaths** | 1,069 | 162,425 | 5,776 | 726,953 | 18.5% | 22.3% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.21* | 180.22* | ||||
* as of 06 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Statistics From This Past Week
New cases this past week moderated in the U.S. and the World.
Deaths from Coronavirus were little changed in the U.S. but increased in the world.
And the coronavirus infection fatality rate continues to improve in the U.S. and the world.
Finally, Econintersect published two posts today which reviews the headlines for the past week.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Researchers created a test to determine which masks are the least effective – CNN
… a group of researchers at Duke University created a simple technique to analyze the effectiveness of various types of masks which have become a critical component in stopping the spread of the virus.
The most effective mask was the fitted N95. Three-layer surgical masks and cotton masks, which many people have been making at home, also performed well.
Neck fleeces, also called gaiter masks and often used by runners, were the least effective. In fact, wearing a fleece mask resulted in a higher number of respiratory droplets because the material seemed to break down larger droplets into smaller particles that are more easily carried away with air.
Folded bandanas and knitted masks also performed poorly and did not offer much protection.
“We were extremely surprised to find that the number of particles measured with the fleece actually exceeded the number of particles measured without wearing any mask,” Fischer said. “We want to emphasize that we really encourage people to wear masks, but we want them to wear masks that actually work.”
Your immune system may already recognize the coronavirus. – New York Times
A flurry of recent studies has revealed that a large proportion of the population — in some places, 20 to 50 percent of people — might harbor immunity assassins called T cells that recognize the new coronavirus despite having never encountered it before.
These T cells, which lurked in the bloodstreams of people long before the pandemic began, are most likely stragglers from past scuffles with other related coronaviruses, including four that frequently cause common colds. It’s a case of family resemblance: In the eyes of the immune system, germs with common roots can look alike, such that when a cousin comes to call, the body may already have an inkling of its intentions.
The presence of these T cells has intrigued experts, who say it is too soon to tell whether the cells will play a helpful, harmful or entirely negligible role against the current coronavirus.
But should these cross-reactive T cells exert even a modest influence on the body’s immune response, they might make the disease milder — and perhaps partly explain why some people who catch the germ become very sick while others are dealt only a glancing blow.
How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond – Nature
[editor’s note: this article is worth a complete read – please click through]
How the Pandemic Defeated America – The Atlantic
A sluggish response by a government denuded of expertise allowed the coronavirus to gain a foothold. Chronic underfunding of public health neutered the nation’s ability to prevent the pathogen’s spread. A bloated, inefficient health-care system left hospitals ill-prepared for the ensuing wave of sickness. Racist policies that have endured since the days of colonization and slavery left Indigenous and Black Americans especially vulnerable to COVID‑19. The decades-long process of shredding the nation’s social safety net forced millions of essential workers in low-paying jobs to risk their life for their livelihood. The same social-media platforms that sowed partisanship and misinformation during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Africa and the 2016 U.S. election became vectors for conspiracy theories during the 2020 pandemic.
… SARS‑CoV‑2 is something of an anti-Goldilocks virus: just bad enough in every way. Its symptoms can be severe enough to kill millions but are often mild enough to allow infections to move undetected through a population. It spreads quickly enough to overload hospitals, but slowly enough that statistics don’t spike until too late. These traits made the virus harder to control, but they also softened the pandemic’s punch. SARS‑CoV‑2 is neither as lethal as some other coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, nor as contagious as measles. Deadlier pathogens almost certainly exist. Wild animals harbor an estimated 40,000 unknown viruses, a quarter of which could potentially jump into humans. How will the U.S. fare when “we can’t even deal with a starter pandemic?,” Zeynep Tufekci, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina and an Atlantic contributing writer, asked me.
[editor’s note: this is a perfect article for a Sunday read. It is hard to summarize, and is thought provoking]
Coronavirus vaccine likely won’t be as effective in obese people, experts say – NY Post
A coronavirus vaccine, once found, likely won’t be as effective in protecting people who are obese, researchers have warned.
Other immunizations, such as those for the flu and hepatitis B, have been shown to be less successful among obese people — a pattern that experts believe will hold for COVID-19, CNN reported Wednesday.
“Will we have a COVID vaccine next year tailored to the obese? No way,” Raz Shaikh, an associate professor with the University of North Carolina’s nutrition department, told the outlet.
“Will it still work in the obese?” he asked. “Our prediction is no.”
But it doesn’t mean that when a vaccine is rolled out, obese people shouldn’t get inoculated, argues Dr. Timothy Garvey, the University of Alabama’s director of diabetes research.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Inside Thailand’s Red Light District in the Time of Coronavirus
New Zealand goes 100 days with no new reported local cases.
France will require masks in crowded outdoor areas starting on Monday.
9 patients killed in fire at makeshift COVID19 facility in Vijayawada [India]
Brazil coronavirus death toll tops 100,000 and case numbers surpass 3 million
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Ohio governor says his ‘false positive’ is a ‘wakeup call’ about newer types of coronavirus tests
Payroll tax deferral will give employed Americans ‘a huge wage increase’
9 people test positive for coronavirus at Georgia school where viral photos showed packed hallways
Florida No Longer Requires Negative COVID Tests for Restaurant Workers
‘If We Get It, We Chose to Be Here’: Despite Virus, Thousands Converge on Sturgis for Huge Rally
5 US states account for more than 40% of the country’s nearly 5 million COVID-19 cases
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Businesses Anticipate Slashing Postpandemic Travel Budgets
The Highs And Lows Of Productivity Growth
Wearable Fitness Devices Deliver Early Warning Of Possible COVID-19 Infection
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 09August 2020
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 09August 2020
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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