Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 3.3 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus continue to worsen and are 23.4 % higher than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- College students book hotel rooms for fall semester as uncertainty lingers
- Stroke With COVID-19? Check the Large Vessels
- Dozens of COVID-19 vaccines are in development. Here are the ones to follow
- A wealthy Indian family mass-producing hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine candidate that might not even work
- Frontline workers wearing PPE still at more than three times the risk of Covid-19 infection, new study finds
- Tracking new outbreaks in the sewers
- Receiving unemployment payments? Why tax season might cost you next year
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths has been updated through 01 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 01 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 67,023 | 4,560,000 | 278,206 | 17,580,000 | 24.1% | 25.9% |
| Deaths** | 1,224 | 153,314 | 6,213 | 679,505 | 19.7% | 22.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.89* | 164.55* | ||||
* as of 30 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
College students book hotel rooms for fall semester as uncertainty lingers – CNBC
- Hotels near college campuses are looking to students to fill vacant rooms as the coronavirus pandemic casts uncertainty over the fall semester and demand from travelers remains depressed.
- Although the option is likely to be pricier than typical on-campus housing, it may alleviate some concerns by offering a less crowded and cleaner environment.
- The arrangement allows hotels to recover sales lost due to canceled events on campus.
FDA Authorizes First Tests that Estimate a Patient’s Antibodies from Past SARS-CoV-2 Infection – FDA
Today [Friday], the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized the first two COVID-19 serology tests that display an estimated quantity of antibodies present in the individual’s blood. Both tests from Siemens, the ADVIA Centaur COV2G and Attelica COV2G, are what are known as “semi-quantitative” tests, meaning that they do not display a precise measurement, but estimate the quantity of a patient’s antibodies produced against infection with the virus that causes COVID-19.
“Being able to measure a patient’s relative level of antibodies in response to a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection may be useful as we continue to learn more about the virus and what the existence of antibodies may mean,” said Tim Stenzel, M.D., Ph.D., director of the Office of In Vitro Diagnostics and Radiological Health in the FDA’s Center for Devices and Radiological Health. “There are still many unknowns about what the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies may tell us about potential immunity, but today’s authorizations give us additional tools to evaluate those antibodies as we continue to research and study this virus. Patients should not interpret results as telling them they are immune, or have any level of immunity, from the virus.”
Due to these unknowns, the FDA cautions patients against using the results from these tests, or any serology test, as an indication that they can stop taking steps to protect themselves and others, such as stopping social distancing, discontinuing wearing masks or returning to work. The FDA also wants to remind patients that serology tests should not be used to diagnose an active infection, as they only detect antibodies the immune system develops in response to the virus – not the virus itself.
Stroke With COVID-19? Check the Large Vessels – MedPage
COVID-19’s excess stroke risk appeared to be largely related to large vessel strokes, an observational study showed.
Among stroke code patients at one large health system in New York City during the pandemic surge there, 38.3% had COVID-19 (126 of 329 seen from March 16 to April 30, 2020).
Large vessel occlusion (LVO) as a cause of the stroke was 2.4-fold more common with COVID-19 than without it after adjustment for race and ethnicity (P=0.011), Shingo Kihira, MD, of Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, and colleagues reported in the American Journal of Roentgenology.
Of the stroke cases, 31.7% of those in COVID-19 patients were LVOs compared with 15.3% in those without COVID-19 (P=0.001). But there was not much difference between groups for small vessel occlusions (SVOs), at 15.9% and 13.8%, respectively (P=0.632).
“Physicians should lower their threshold of suspicion for large vessel stroke in patients with COVID-19 who present with acute neurologic symptoms,” the researchers concluded, recommending prompt workup.
“Health care providers in the emergency department and inpatient areas should be cognizant of this association and not delay activating a stroke code,” they wrote.
Dozens of COVID-19 vaccines are in development. Here are the ones to follow. – National Geographic
The candidates, like all vaccines, essentially aim to instruct the immune system to mount a defense, which is sometimes stronger than what would be provided through natural infection and comes with fewer health consequences.
To do so, some vaccines use the whole coronavirus, but in a killed or weakened state. Others use only part of the virus—whether a protein or a fragment. Some transfer the coronavirus proteins into a different virus that is unlikely to cause disease or even incapable of it. Finally, some vaccines under development rely on deploying pieces of the coronavirus’s genetic material, so our cells can temporarily make the coronavirus proteins needed to stimulate our immune systems. (Here’s what vaccines are and how they work.)
…Though it’s too soon to say which candidates will ultimately be successful, here’s a look at the vaccine prospects that have made it to phase three and beyond …
[editor’s note: Please click through on the article hyperlink for quick primer on how they work and where they stand.]
- Moderna Therapeutics – Name: mRNA-1273
- Pfizer – Name: BNT162b2
- University of Oxford – Name: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19
- Sinovac – Name: CoronaVac
- Sinopharm – Name: None
- Murdoch Children’s Research Institute – Name: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin BRACE trial
- CanSino Biologics – Name: Ad5-nCoV
Public Health Expert Calls To Repair Distrust In A COVID-19 Vaccine – NPR
Scientists are in a sprint to find a vaccine that could stamp out the coronavirus pandemic. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said on Friday he’s “cautiously optimistic” that a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine will be ready for distribution in early 2021.
But it’s unclear how many people will actually get a vaccine if it’s approved. Only about half of Americans said in May that they were willing to get a coronavirus vaccine.
That resistance doesn’t surprise Dr. Sandra Quinn, a professor and chair of the family science department at the University of Maryland, whose work at the start of the H1N1 pandemic showed even more vaccine skepticism. A 2009 study she co-authored found that less than 10% of all respondents said they would embrace a vaccine, with many believing the perceived side effects would outweigh a relatively mild illness.
Russia planning mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign for October – The Hill
Russia’s health minister said Saturday that the country is planning a mass vaccination campaign for the coronavirus starting in October.
Health Minister Mikhail Murashko told the state-run Interfax news agency that the Gamaleya Institute, a state research facility based in Moscow, is processing paperwork to register its vaccine after it completed clinical trials.
Doctors and teachers will be vaccinated first, Murashko said, adding the campaign would be “widespread.”
The Gamaleya Institute has been working on an adenovirus-based vaccine, but the rapid pace at which the vaccine is being developed has sparked skepticism outside Russia over its efficacy and whether Moscow was being truthful regarding its progress.
A wealthy Indian family is betting big on a coronavirus vaccine. – New York Times
The Serum Institute, which started out years ago as a horse farm and is exclusively controlled by a small and fabulously rich Indian family, is doing what few other companies in the race for a vaccine are doing: mass-producing hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine candidate that might not even work.
But if it does, Adar Poonawalla, Serum’s chief executive and the only child of the company’s founder, will become one of the most tugged-at men in the world. He will have what everyone wants, possibly in greater quantities before anyone else.
Mr. Poonawalla’s vaccine assembly lines are being readied to crank out 500 doses a minute, and his phone rings endlessly.
… The Serum Institute finds itself in the middle of an extremely competitive and murky endeavor. To get the vaccine out as soon as possible, vaccine developers say they need Serum’s mammoth assembly lines — each year, it churns out 1.5 billion doses of other vaccines, mostly for poor countries, more than any other company.
Half of the world’s children have been vaccinated with Serum’s products. Scale is its specialty. Just the other day, Mr. Poonawalla received a shipment of 600 million glass vials.
Wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) when caring for patients with Covid-19 isn’t enough to completely eliminate the threat from the virus for frontline workers, according to a new study from King’s College London.
Health care workers with adequate gloves, gowns and face masks still had 3.4 times the risk of contracting the coronavirus compared to the general population, the study found, and minority health care workers had an even greater risk of testing positive.
African American, Latino and other minority care providers were five times more likely to contract Covid-19 than their White counterparts, the study found.
“A little over 20 percent of front-line health-care workers reported at least one symptom associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with 14.4 percent of the general population; fatigue, loss of smell or taste, and hoarse voice were especially frequent,” the researchers wrote.
Receiving unemployment payments? Why tax season might cost you next year – CNBC
- People who lost their jobs amid Covid-19 were eligible for unemployment, along with a weekly federal $600 unemployment payment that ended on July 31.
- These benefits are subject to taxes, and failure to withhold now could mean a tax bill or a smaller refund next year.
- A low-income household with three kids could qualify for up to $6,600 in earned income tax credits for the 2020 tax year. But this could go down for taxpayers who had a spike in income due to the additional federal unemployment benefit.
Coronavirus: Tracking new outbreaks in the sewers – BBC
Covid-19 cases are on the rise in Spain. Around 15,000 new cases of the disease have been reported in the past week.
In the city of Valencia a team of engineers and scientists are going into the sewer network in an attempt to find out where outbreaks are likely to spring up next.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Syria Is Overwhelmed By Coronavirus As Govt Conceals Outbreak, Health Worker Says
Thousands march against coronavirus restrictions in Berlin
South Korea arrests the leader of a church where the virus spread rapidly.
Coronavirus: Mexico’s death toll becomes world’s third highest
Argentina extends quarantine to August 16, given a peak of Covid-19 cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Yale Doc Backing HCQ Cites Questionable Data
Surging tourism is straining this Yellowstone gateway town
In Florida, COVID-19 Death Toll Keeps Rising
Florida, already reeling from the virus, faces a new threat from Hurricane Isaias.
A school opened in Indiana. It had to quarantine people within hours.
Georgia Gov. Kemp extends public health state of emergency, renews COVID-19 restrictions
Test surge overwhelms Alabama’s ability to give quick COVID-19 results
Microsoft Extends Work-From-Home Option Through January
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Companies Plan To Keep Some Or Many Working From Home
The Next Phase Of The Crisis: Further Action Needed For A Resilient Recovery
Infographic Of The Day: The Economic Impact Of COVID-19 In The U.S. So Far
Is A 12% Decline In Jobless Claims Good Enough?
Test Positivity Rate: How This One Figure Explains That The US Isn’t Doing Enough Testing Yet
Medical Care For Undocumented COVID Patients
Why A Great Reset Based On Green Energy Is Not Possible
Russia And BRIICS COVID-19 Update 29 July 2020
Energy Is A Basic Need, And Many Americans Are Struggling To Afford It In The COVID-19 Recession
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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