Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is essentially the same as one week ago (same as yesterday). U.S. Death rates due to coronavirus had been holding relatively steady (although the 7-day rolling average is increasing). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- U.S. new cases this past week are little changed from the previous week
- Deaths are trending up
- The infection fatality rate continues to trend down
- The limits of antibody testing add to the immunity mystery
- Kudlow on economic recovery: ‘On the whole the picture is very positive’
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths has been updated through 26 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png​
Coronavirus Statistics For 26 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 65,498 | 4,180,000 | 255,524 | 16,020,000 | 25.6% | 26.1% |
| Deaths** | 914 | 146,460 | 5.557 | 644,832 | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.34* | 147.42* | ||||
* as of 23 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
The following charts compare this week to previous weeks.
There was little change in the numbers of coronavirus new cases in the U.S. whilst the world new cases continues to grow.
Coronavirus deaths keep increasing in both the U.S. and globally – but remain below historical highs.
All while the coronavirus infection fatality rates continue their downward trend.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Kudlow on economic recovery: ‘On the whole the picture is very positive’ – The Hill
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow doubled down on his claim that the U.S. economy is recovering, despite coronavirus surges across the country.
“In some places job declines, job increases have been affected, I don’t deny it, but it’s being made up by people calling back employees. So the joblessness rate is going to fall,” Kudlow said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Kudlow acknowledged that rising coronavirus cases in some states may moderate the level of recovery, but still painted a positive picture about recovery across the country.
“You can argue about the speed of [recovery,] I get that, and I don’t deny that some of these hotspots states are going to moderate that recovery, but on the whole the picture is very positive,” he said. “And I still think the V-shaped recovery is in place.”
The limits of antibody testing add to the immunity mystery. – New York Times
One of the great mysteries of the coronavirus pandemic has been the fact that many stricken people have later discovered that they don’t seem to have antibodies, the protective proteins generated in response to an infection.
This has led to concerns that people may be susceptible to repeat infections.
The problem, writes The Times’s Apoorva Mandavilli, lies in the antibody tests.
Most commercial antibody tests offer crude yes-no answers. The tests are notorious for delivering false positives – results indicating that someone has antibodies when they do not.
But the volume of coronavirus antibodies is known to drop sharply once the acute illness ends, and it has become increasingly clear that tests may miss antibodies that are present at low levels.
Moreover, some tests – including those made by Abbott and Roche and offered by Quest Labs and LabCorp – are designed to detect a subtype of antibodies that doesn’t confer immunity and may wane even faster than the kind that can destroy the virus.
Kudlow says coronavirus relief will include $1,200 checks and extension of eviction moratorium – CNBC
- “There’s a $1,200 check coming, that’s going to be part of the new package,” White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said in an interview on CNN.
- Kudlow also said the administration plans to lengthen the federal eviction moratorium.
- The eviction moratorium expired Friday and the $600 boost in weekly unemployment benefits stopped over the weekend.
[editor’s note: Pelosi says Congress “can’t go home” until coronavirus stimulus deal reached and Sen. Lindsey Graham says half the Republicans will vote no on stimulus package ]
You may want to catch up on all the coronavirus news this past week. Econintersect published two posts today reviewing the week’s news:
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
North Korea Reports 1st Suspected Case Of Coronavirus
‘Could Already Be A Second Wave’: Some Restrictions Return As Cases Spike In Spain
Australia sees deadliest day of coronavirus pandemic
Travel latest: Spain pushes for islands to be excluded from UK quarantine
Australian state tests 42,973 people in one day, setting a record
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
ICE Confirms New Foreign Students Can’t Take Online-Only Course Loads In The U.S.
New Mexico governor says her state is ‘at the mercy of what’s going on around the country’
No reported outbreaks associated with Florida theme parks, health official says
More people died in Houston in July than in the past four months combined
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Mortgage Rates Not Matching Declines In Treasury Yields
Federal Reserve Agency CMBS Purchases Improved Market Functions
America’s Scariest Charts Updated 25 July 2020
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 25July 2020
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 25July 2020
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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