Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average continues to set new records – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 21 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 20 %). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon (today deaths were near the upper end of the range seen in the last few weeks). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Today there was a global record in new cases.
- Most Covid-19 patients surveyed had either a fever, cough, or shortness of breath
- Russia trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine data, say UK, U.S. and Canada
- Florida hospitals face ICU bed shortage as state passes 300,000 COVID-19 cases
- COVID-19 May Manifest in the Mouth in Some Patients
- Americans on COVID-19 jobless benefits spent more than when working, study shows
- Trump administration restores some COVID-19 hospitalization data to CDC website
- Hydroxychloroquine doesn’t help COVID-19 patients who aren’t hospitalized
Repeating from past posts, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should have begun to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said on 04 July 2020 “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should have begun spiking beginning on 03 July]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms. Also, there is reason to believe that duplicate positive tests on a person will result in multiple new cases (and now we are also seeing larger testing errors)..
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, bars and gyms).
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 16 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 16 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 67,717 | 3,500,000 | 230,495 | 13,530,000 | 39.4% | 25.9% |
| Deaths** | 953 | 137,419 | 5,572 | 583,892 | 17.1% | 23.5% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.3% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.20* | 121.70* | ||||
* as of 12 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
You will find more infographics at Statista
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Covid-19 can cause a wide variety of symptoms, but a new analysis of records by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that most patients seemed to share at least one of three symptoms: fever, cough or shortness of breath.
The report published Thursday covered 164 people with lab confirmed cases of Covid-19. The patients all had symptoms, and all were sick between January 14 and April 4.
Since Covid-19 was a new disease and since information about symptoms was limited, especially among patients that hadn’t been hospitalized, the CDC sent a further survey to patients identified by local health leaders. The patients were asked to report on a wide variety of symptoms and also asked to report on any additional symptoms that were not widely recognized.
Among these patients, nearly all — 96% — had had either a fever, cough, or shortness of breath and about 45% experienced all three.
Russia trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine data, say UK, U.S. and Canada – Reuters
Hackers backed by the Russian state are trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine and treatment research from academic and pharmaceutical institutions around the world, Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said on Thursday.
A co-ordinated statement from Britain, the United States and Canada attributed the attacks to group APT29, also known as ‘Cozy Bear’, which they said was almost certainly operating as part of Russian intelligence services.
“We condemn these despicable attacks against those doing vital work to combat the coronavirus pandemic,” said NCSC Director of Operations, Paul Chichester.
Russian news agency RIA cited spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying the Kremlin rejected London’s allegations, which he said were not backed by proper evidence.
Over 224,000 COVID-19 deaths forecast in U.S. by November 1, says University of Washington’s IHME – Reuters
A newly revised University of Washington model projects the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 will climb to just above 224,000 by Nov. 1, up 16,000 from a prior forecast, due to rising infections and hospitalizations in many states.
But the latest forecast from the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), released late on Tuesday, also predicts the death toll could be reduced by 40,000 if nearly all Americans wore masks in public.
“Use of masks is up, but not as high as it should be. If 95% of Americans wore masks each time they left their homes, infection rates would drop, hospitalizations would drop, and forecast deaths would drop,” the IHME said in a statement.
The IHME’s new forecast came after Alabama, Florida and North Carolina on Tuesday reported record daily increases in deaths from COVID-19, marking grim new milestones of a second wave of infections surging across much of the U.S.
Florida hospitals face ICU bed shortage as state passes 300,000 COVID-19 cases – NBC News
Florida was running out of ICU beds at numerous hospitals Wednesday as COVID-19 cases continued to pile up by the tens of thousands and the Trump administration appeared powerless to stop it.
In Oklahoma, Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican who caught flak for posting a photo of himself eating with his kids in a crowded restaurant while COVID-19 was spreading through his state, announced Wednesday that he had tested positive for the virus.
The 67,507 new cases reported across the country Tuesday was the second highest daily number since the start of the pandemic, and states like Wisconsin (4,407), Nevada (1,104), Oklahoma (993) and Alaska (360) shattered their previous records for numbers of cases recorded in a single day.
Four states in particular — Florida, Texas, Arizona and California — continued to account for most of the new cases and deaths.
Citing Educational Risks, Scientific Panel Urges That Schools Reopen – New York Times
Wading into the contentious debate over reopening schools, an influential committee of scientists and educators on Wednesday recommended that, wherever possible, younger children and those with special needs should attend school in person.
Their report — issued by the prestigious National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, which advises the nation on issues related to science — is less prescriptive for middle and high schools, but offered a framework for school districts to decide whether and how to open, with help from public health experts, families and teachers.
The committee emphasized common-sense precautions, such as hand-washing, physical distancing and minimizing group activities, including lunch and recess.
But the experts went further than guidelines issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other groups, also calling for surgical masks to be worn by all teachers and staff members during school hours, and for cloth face coverings to be worn by all students, including those in elementary school.
U.S. Government Efforts to Increase COVID-19 Testing Capacity with Point-of-Care Tests – BD
BD (Becton, Dickinson and Company) (NYSE: BDX), a leading global medical technology company, announced today a commitment from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to purchase BD diagnostic solutions in expanding access to rapid point-of-care testing for COVID-19 through a broad, decentralized network of testing instrumentation.
HHS has committed to purchase 2,000 BD Veritor™ Plus Systems and 750,000 SARS-CoV-2 antigen test kits for use on the system. Distribution is set to begin next week.
“The BD Veritor™ Plus System for rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 is the latest point-of-care testing advance that will significantly expand testing in distributed locations for the benefit of all Americans,” said Admiral Brett P. Giroir, M.D., assistant secretary for Health and COVID-19 testing coordinator. “This development will help identify community spread of the virus by further enabling rapid diagnosis of COVID-19.”
COVID-19 May Manifest in the Mouth in Some Patients – MedPage
You can add enanthem, or a rash inside the body, such as in the mouth, to the ever-lengthening list of symptoms with which COVID-19 patients can present, researchers in Spain suggested.
Six of 21 patients with an exterior skin rash also had these lesions, which seemed to appear about 2 weeks after symptom onset, reported Juan Jimenez-Cauhe, MD, of Hospital Universitario Ramon y Cajal in Madrid, and colleagues, in a research letter in JAMA Dermatology.
Skin rashes and other lesions have been described in prior research among patients with severe COVID-19 infection, but the authors noted that “whether these manifestations are directly related to COVID-19 remains unclear, since both viral infections and adverse drug reactions are frequent causes of exanthem” or rashes occurring on the outside of the body.
They also noted how prior research found erythematovesicular and petechial patterns were most commonly associated with viral infections.
But patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 are often not examined for enanthem, since the oral cavity is not examined due to safety concerns, they noted.
BANKS STAND TO MAKE $18 BILLION IN PPP PROCESSING FEES FROM CARES ACT – The Intercept
BANKS WILL MAKE out with $18 billion in fees for processing small business Paycheck Protection Program relief loans during the pandemic, according to calculations by Amanda Fischer, policy director at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a progressive economic think tank.
That’s money taken directly out of the overall $640 billion pot of funding Congress allocated to the program it created as part of the CARES Act. “If we did it through a public institution, there would be [more than] $140 billion left,” Fischer noted, as opposed to the $130 billion still up for grabs. The Washington Center for Equitable Growth is releasing an analysis of the government response to the pandemic as soon as this week.
The fees compensate the banks for some of the costs that come with processing loans — call center time to handle business owners’ questions, employee hours spent on processing paperwork for both loan and forgiveness applications — and some of the risk they shoulder if any of the loans they extend end up being fraudulent. But there is no credit risk; if business owners who qualified for PPP loans later default, the Small Business Association takes the hit, not the banks. “Basically it’s free money,” Fischer said.
For some banks, this money represents a hefty windfall. New Jersey-based Cross River Bank’s estimated $163 million haul would be more than double its net revenue last year. JPMorgan Chase could make $864 million.
Americans on COVID-19 jobless benefits spent more than when working, study shows – Reuters
Americans who received enhanced unemployment benefits due to the coronavirus pandemic spent more than when they were working, a study released on Thursday said, adding to concerns about a steep fall in spending when the emergency benefits expire.
The $600 weekly supplement added to jobless benefits as part of the CARES Act helped unemployed households spend 10% more after receiving benefits than they did before the pandemic, according to research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute.
Researchers analyzed transactions for 61,000 households that received unemployment benefits between March and May. Spending dropped for all households as the virus spread and led to business shutdowns, but then rose when households began receiving jobless benefits, the study found.
That contrasts with a typical recession, when households receiving unemployment benefits usually cut spending by 7% because regular jobless benefits amount to only a fraction of a person’s prior earnings, the research found.
Trump administration restores some COVID-19 hospitalization data to CDC website – The Hill
The Trump administration has restored previously public data on COVID-19 hospitalizations after it disappeared from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website on Wednesday.
The CDC had been collecting that information from the start of the pandemic on its National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN), which the agency describes as the country’s most widely used health care-associated infection tracking system.
Researchers, public health experts and reporters used the CDC data to track COVID-19 hospitalizations.
But the administration quietly changed their reporting rules, and as of Wednesday, information on availability of hospital beds and intensive care units is now being sent from hospitals directly to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) instead of to the CDC.
Hydroxychloroquine doesn’t help COVID-19 patients who aren’t hospitalized, new study finds – CNN
The antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine did not benefit non-hospitalized patients with mild symptoms from Covid-19 who were treated early in their infection, according to a study to be published Thursday in the medical journal Annals of Internal Medicine.
Scientists from University of Minnesota launched the trial March 22 to see if the drug could decrease the severity of symptoms and prevent hospitalization. This was the first randomized clinical trial to study hydroxychloroquine in Covid-19 patients who weren’t hospitalized.
It was tested in 491 adults in the United States and Canada. Half the patients received a five-day hydroxychloroquine treatment and half the patients received five days of a placebo. The adults were enrolled within the first four days of reporting symptoms, and 56% were enrolled in the trial the first day they reported any symptoms. Doctors monitored symptoms for two weeks.
At the end of two weeks, the study found that there was no advantage to taking the drug. About 24% of the hydroxychloroquine group had symptoms that persisted over 14 days, compared to the 30% who took the placebo. But hospitalizations were nearly the same — 2% of those in the hydroxychloroquine group were hospitalized, compared to the 3% taking the placebo. The death rate was identical for both groups, at 0.4%.
And, 43% of those who took hydroxychloroquine had side effects, compared to the 22% that took a placebo. Gastrointestinal symptoms were the most commonly reported side effect.
The study also found there was no benefit seen among people who took zinc or vitamin C along with the placebo or hydroxychloroquine.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
U.S. order puts Malaysia glove industry under pressure over labour abuses
India Sets Record For Its Daily Coronavirus Count
Indonesia Stumbles As Coronavirus Cases Surge
Melbourne, On COVID-19 Lockdown, Reports Record Case Count
Ireland Delays Further Reopening, Keeping Bars Closed As Case Numbers Grow
France will require masks in all public indoor areas starting next week.
Japan reports over 600 new virus cases, fuels fear of 2nd wave
China Reports Only One New Confirmed Coronavirus Case in 24 Hours
A hospital owner allegedly used fake Covid-19 tests to scam patients out of $350,000 then tried to flee the country [Bangladesh]
Brazil nears 2 million coronavirus cases, with 75,000 dead
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
America Went Shopping For Clothes Again In June
Georgia’s Governor Issues Order Rescinding Local Mask Mandates
New York City’s High Line Reopens In A Potential Boost To Local Business
Los Angeles Launches $103 Million Program To Offer Relief To Renters
Prison population down 8 percent since pandemic began
The University of Akron cuts nearly 100 faculty jobs, as the pandemic savages college finances.
Learn about 20 of the most talked-about possible coronavirus treatments with this new tracking tool.
Retail sales in the U.S. jump as unemployment claims top one million for the 17th straight week.
In Washington State, which seemed to have beaten back the virus, the fight is on again.
Florida remdesivir shortages due to ‘bad disconnect’ with Trump administration, Sen. Rubio says
Johnson & Johnson hopes to begin late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial ahead of schedule in September
Publix to Require Customers to Wear Face Coverings
NFL Players Association says 72 players have tested positive for coronavirus
New York helps Houston set up two additional COVID-19 testing sites
Dolphins won’t have fans at home preseason games
Bank of America’s profit plunges 52%, braces for virus-related bad loans
Colorado governor issues statewide mask order as COVID-19 cases rise
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Business Inventories Decline
July 2020 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Index Marginally Declined
Retail Sales Again Improves in July 2020
11 July 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,300,000 This Week
June 2020 Sea Container Counts Remain Deep In Contraction Year-over-Year
Firms Do Not Anticipate Regaining Pre-COVID Employment Levels Through 2021
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus.htm’); ?>
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
