Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average today again set a new record – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 20 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 26 % so the rate of acceleration is slowing). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon (although today deaths were near the upper end of the range). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Today is a record day for new cases in the U.S. and globally – as well as a record for the 7-day rolling averages
- States with bad outbreaks should consider ‘shutting down,’ Fauci says
- Job losses remain ‘enormous’: Coronavirus unemployment claims are worst in history
- Big restaurant chains are recovering faster than the rest of the industry
- WHO promises ‘honest evaluation’ of how world handled COVID-19
- Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage
Repeating from past posts, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should begin to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said on 04 July 2020 “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should have begun spiking beginning on 03 July]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, bars and gyms).
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 09 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 09 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 58,906 | 3,060,000 | 214,930 | 12,020,000 | 27.4% | 25.5% |
| Deaths** | 829 | 132,309 | 5,370 | 549,276 | 15.4% | 24.1% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.6% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.00* | 113.09* | ||||
* as of 08 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Should We Try to Save Everyone From COVID? – A Doctor’s Thoughts:
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
States with bad outbreaks should consider ‘shutting down,’ Fauci says – Washington Post
Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease official, is advising that some states seriously consider “shutting down” again if they are facing major resurgences of the virus — a warning that conflicts with President Trump’s push to reopen the country as quickly as possible.
“I think any state that is having a serious problem, that state should seriously look at shutting down,” Fauci said Wednesday. “It’s not for me to say, because each state is different.”
Fauci added Thursday that he hopes there’s not a need for new shutdowns, saying it “would not be viewed very, very favorably,” and urged states to pause their reopening process to slow the spread of the virus so that renewed shutdowns are not necessary.
[editor’s note: earlier at the same event Fauci said “So rather than think in terms of reverting back down to a complete shutdown, I would think we need to get the states pausing in their opening process.” ]
Job losses remain ‘enormous’: Coronavirus unemployment claims are worst in history – CNBC
- New applications for unemployment benefits totaled 2.3 million last week — the 16th week in a row that claims have exceeded 1 million.
- In total, nearly 33 million Americans were getting jobless benefits as of June 20, about five times the peak during the Great Recession.
- Things have improved since new claims peaked in late March, but spiking coronavirus infections and expiring federal aid means layoffs could increase.
Asymptomatic and presymptomatic people transmit most COVID-19 infections: Study – ABC News
Silent transmission of the novel coronavirus could account for more than half of infections, according to one new mathematical model by U.S. and Canadian researchers.
The researchers utilized data on asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission from two different epidemiological studies and estimated that more than 50% of infections were attributable to people not exhibiting symptoms.
Since the study is based on a mathematical model, the 50% finding is an estimation based on probabilities and approximations, rather than a precise figure.
Clonal Hematopoiesis Might Explain Extra Risk of COVID-19 With Age, CVD – MedPage
People with cardiovascular disease and clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) appeared to be primed for the excessive inflammatory response typical of COVID-19, a small study found.
People with the most common acquired mutations in CHIP — DNMT3A or TET2 sequence variations — had mutated white blood cells with significantly increased expression of inflammatory genes, including:
- Interleukin 1β
- The interleukin 6 (IL-6) receptor
- The NLRP3 inflammasome complex
- CD163, a cellular receptor capable of mediating infection, macrophage activation syndrome, and other genes involved in cytokine response syndrome (CRS)
Hydroxychloroquine And Fake News – ZeroHedge
A New York doctor Vladimir Zelenko looked at treatments being used in China and Korea and gave it to 405 patients over 60 or with high-risk problems such as diabetes, asthma, obesity, hypertension or shortness of breath. In this high risk group he claimed to have cut hospital admission and mortality rates compared to what could be expected without treatment by 80 to 90%. https://internetprotocol.co/hype-news/2020/04/14/a-detailed-coronavirus-treatment-plan-from-dr-zelenko/
Dr Zelenko sent a letter to President Trump urging him to issue an executive order to roll out the treatment which the FDA was blocking. Trump announced that hydroxychloroquine looked like it could be a “game-changer”, and thus the politicization of hydroxychloroquine began.
Dr Fauci the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases who was supposed to be advising Trump disagreed with him and backed Gilead’s rival treatment Remdesivir. YouTube deleted a video of Dr. Zelenko talking about the treatment on his Rabbi’s channel and despite objections that there was nothing wrong with the video YouTube never reinstated it.
In this YouTube video interview with Rudy Giulliani from July 1, which hopefully will not be deleted by the time you read this, Dr. Zelenko claims 99,3% survival rate for the high-risk patients he has treated.
Big restaurant chains are recovering faster than the rest of the industry, Bank of America says – CNBC
- Small chain restaurants and independent eateries are taking longer than large chains to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
- A Bank of America study found that spending at small chains and independent restaurants lagged large chains by about 20%.
- Trade groups have issued dire warnings about the future of independent restaurants.
WHO promises ‘honest evaluation’ of how world handled COVID-19 – Reuters
The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday it was setting up an independent panel to review its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the response by governments.
The announcement follows strong criticism by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration of the global agency’s role in the crisis – though the WHO said the review was not linked to the United States.
“The magnitude of this pandemic, which has touched virtually everyone in the world, clearly deserves a commensurate evaluation, an honest evaluation,” Tedros told a virtual meeting with diplomats.
The panel will provide an interim report to an annual meeting of health ministers in November and present a “substantive report” next May, he said.
A flawed Covid-19 study gets the White House’s attention — and the FDA may pay the price – STAT
Studies in thousands of people on multiple continents now show the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine does not help patients hospitalized with Covid-19 live longer. But on Tuesday the White House, based on a new study that outsiders greeted with deep skepticism, disagreed.
Now the Food and Drug Administration again risks being pulled into an ugly political fracas over whether to permit more patients to be treated with the drug. It is a debate that threatens to undermine the agency’s credibility when it needs it perhaps more than ever.
“The FDA cannot afford another misstep if it wants to maintain credibility with American people, which is going to be so essential when doing a broad vaccine program, should we identify a safe and effective vaccine for Covid,” said Luciana Borio, who served as the FDA’s acting chief scientist from 2017 to 2019.
Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage – Reuters
Scientists warned on Wednesday of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggested COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.
A study by researchers at University College London (UCL)described 43 cases of patients with COVID-19 who suffered either temporary brain dysfunction, strokes, nerve damage or other serious brain effects.
The research adds to recent studies which also found the disease can damage the brain.
“Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic – remains to be seen,” said Michael Zandi, from UCL’s Institute of Neurology, who co-led the study.
Covid-19 Vaccine Trials Now Open To Volunteers In U.S. – Forbes
Volunteers can now sign up to participate in Covid-19 vaccine clinical trials led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, with the new operating center, the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, saying Wednesday there would be 10,000 to 30,000 volunteers enrolled per trial.
The federal agency launched the website Covid-19 Prevention Network on Wednesday, merging four existing clinical trial networks and setting up an operation across over 100 different sites in the United States and internationally.
Interested individuals can fill out a survey on the site, which includes personal questions like “where you live, your job, your past and present health and contact information so that we can speak with you.”
Fed officials warn economic slowdown is coming, here’s why – FOX
Recent economic data shows signs of acceleration in the U.S. economy, but Federal Reserve officials are cautioning that there may be a slowdown on the horizon as confirmed coronavirus cases rise in some U.S. states.
On Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested that the U.S. recovery could be stalling – even after more than 7 million jobs were added between May and June.
Bostic told reporters that more recent data indicates “energy in terms of reopening for businesses and for just general activity is starting to level off,” as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
A Spike in People Dying at Home Suggests Coronavirus Deaths in Houston May Be Higher Than Reported – ProPublica
As coronavirus cases surge, inundating hospitals and leading to testing shortages, a rapidly growing number of Houston area residents are dying at home, according to an NBC News and ProPublica review of Houston Fire Department data. An increasing number of these at-home deaths have been confirmed to be the result of COVID-19, Harris County medical examiner data shows.
The previously unreported jump in people dying at home is the latest indicator of a mounting crisis in a region beset by one of the nation’s worst and fastest-growing coronavirus outbreaks. On Tuesday, a record 3,851 people were hospitalized for the coronavirus in the Houston region, exceeding normal intensive care capacity and sending some hospitals scrambling to find additional staff and space.
The uptick in the number of people dying before they can even reach a hospital in Houston draws parallels to what happened in New York City in March and April, when there was a spike in the number of times firefighters responded to medical calls, only to discover that the person in need of help had already died. These increases also echo those reported during outbreaks in Detroit and Boston, when the number of people dying at home jumped as coronavirus cases surged.
- The WHO previously acknowledged that the virus may become airborne in certain environments, such as during “medical procedures that generate aerosols.”
- The new guidance recognizes some research that suggests the virus may be able to spread through particles in the air in “indoor crowded spaces.”
- It cited “choir practice, in restaurants or in fitness classes” as possible areas of airborne transmission.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Mexico border towns try to stop Americans crossing amid Covid-19 fears
Tokyo coronavirus cases hit record daily high of 224
Lack Of Unity Is A Bigger Threat Than Coronavirus, WHO Chief Says In Emotional Speech
Brazil’s Bolsonaro Faces Suit For Unmasking As He Announced Coronavirus Diagnosis
Moscow to reopen schools as daily cases fall
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Less Than 150 ICU Beds Left in All of Arizona As Coronavirus Cases Spike
A Spike in People Dying at Home Suggests Coronavirus Deaths in Houston May Be Higher Than Reported
Florida records record number of coronavirus deaths
56 Florida hospitals report ICUs at capacity as virus surges
‘Devastated’: As Layoffs Keep Coming, Hopes Fade That Jobs Will Return Quickly
Houston Mayor Cancels Texas GOP’s In-Person Convention, Citing Public Health Concerns
Disney confident in reopening this week even as coronavirus cases reach new highs in Florida
California records highest single-day coronavirus toll: 149 deaths
CDC Director Says Agency Won’t Revise School Reopening Guidelines — Despite Trump Pressure
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Headline Wholesale Sales and Inventories Remain In Recession Territory
04 July 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,314,000 This Week
June 2020 Monthly Budget Review: Deficit $2 Trillion More Than Last Year’s Deficit To Date
Get Ready For Global Impact From US COVID-19 Resurgence
What Makes A ‘Wave’ Of Disease? An Epidemiologist Explains
U.S. Mint Tackles Coin Shortage
Rationing Social Contact During The COVID-19 Pandemic
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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