Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average today again set a new record – but this rolling average of U.S. new cases is now 25 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 27 % so the rate of acceleration is slowing). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- ‘At war time speed’, China leads COVID-19 vaccine race
- Why no one should believe COVID-19 is naturally-occurring
- The Fullest Look Yet at the Racial Inequity of Coronavirus
- Nearly 90 percent of COVID-19 cases at meat plants hit minority workers
- U.N. Predicts Rise In Diseases That Jump From Animals To Humans Due To Habitat Loss
- Airline bookings start to tumble again as coronavirus cases spike
Repeating from past posts, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should begin to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said on 04 July 2020 “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should have began spiking beginning on 03 July]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, bars and gyms).
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 07 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png​
Coronavirus Statistics For 07 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 49,990 | 2,940,000 | 166,489 | 11,590,000 | 30.0% | 25.4% |
| Deaths** | 359 | 130,306 | 3,740 | 537,701 | 9.6% | 24.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 0.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 4.6% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.95* | 105.31* | ||||
* as of 04 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
‘At war time speed’, China leads COVID-19 vaccine race – Reuters
China is forging ahead in the race to develop a vaccine to help control the COVID-19 pandemic, with Sinovac Biotech’s (SVA.O) experimental vaccine set to become the country’s second and the world’s third to enter final stage testing later this month.
While a laggard in the global vaccine industry, China, where the new coronavirus is thought to have originated, has brought state, military and private sectors together in a quest to combat a disease that has killed over 500,000 people worldwide.
Many other countries, including the United States, are coordinating closely with the private sector to try to win the vaccine development race, and China faces many challenges.
Its success in driving down COVID-19 infections makes it harder to conduct large-scale vaccine trials, and so far only a few other countries have agreed to work with it. After past vaccine scandals, Beijing will also have to convince the world it has met all safety and quality requirements.
But China’s use of command economy-type tools is so far yielding results.
Novavax Announces $1.6 Billion Funding from Operation Warp Speed – Novavax
Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), a late stage biotechnology company developing next-generation vaccines for serious infectious diseases, today announced that it has been selected to participate in Operation Warp Speed (OWS), a U.S. government program that aims to begin delivering millions of doses of a safe, effective vaccine for COVID-19 in 2021. Novavax has been awarded $1.6 billion by the federal government to complete late-stage clinical development, including a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial; establish large-scale manufacturing; and deliver 100 million doses of NVX‑CoV2373, Novavax’ COVID-19 vaccine candidate, as early as late 2020. NVX‑CoV2373 consists of a stable, prefusion protein made using its proprietary nanoparticle technology and includes Novavax’ proprietary Matrix‑M adjuvant.
“The pandemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis, making it more important than ever that industry, government and funding entities join forces to defeat the novel coronavirus together. We are honored to partner with Operation Warp Speed to move our vaccine candidate forward with extraordinary urgency in the quest to provide vital protection to our nation’s population,” said Stanley C. Erck, President and Chief Executive Officer of Novavax. “We are grateful to the U.S. government for its confidence in our technology platform, and are working tirelessly to develop and produce a vaccine for this global health crisis.”
Under the terms of the agreement, Novavax will demonstrate it can rapidly stand up large-scale manufacturing and transition into ongoing production, including the capability to stockpile and distribute large quantities of NVX-CoV2373 when needed. The agreement will fund the late-stage clinical studies necessary to determine the safety and efficacy of NVX-CoV2373, including a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial with up to 30,000 subjects beginning in the fall of 2020.
Why no one should believe COVID-19 is naturally-occurring – WION
[editor’s note: it is interesting to KNOW for sure the source of COVID-19 – not that it will make a difference to erradication of this virus now. For those who believe the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, here is some mental food for your position]
Although COVID-19 appears to have been “pre-adapted” for human infection, the artificial insertion of the furin polybasic cleavage site may explain a potentially significant point mutation in COVID-19 that may have increased its infectivity.
According to the article “The D614G mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein reduces S1 shedding and increases infectivity,”, over the course of the human pandemic, one amino acid position has changed from aspartic acid to glycine, increasing the stability of the spike protein and, thereby, making COVID-19 more infectious.
As suggested by the authors, that mutation may have been what is known as a “positive selection” to compensate for the structural instability created after the artificial insertion of the furin polybasic cleavage site.
The burden of proof is now on China to demonstrate that COVID-19 is naturally-occurring because most of the available evidence indicates otherwise.
The Fullest Look Yet at the Racial Inequity of Coronavirus – New York Times
Early numbers had shown that Black and Latino people were being harmed by the virus at higher rates. But the new federal data – made available after The New York Times sued the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – reveals a clearer and more complete picture: Black and Latino people have been disproportionately affected by the coronavirus in a widespread manner that spans the country, throughout hundreds of counties in urban, suburban and rural areas, and across all age groups.
[editor’s note: this article deserves a complete read – and it has an interactive map so you can drill down to county levels]
The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave.
Exclusive: Moderna spars with U.S. scientists over COVID-19 vaccine trials – Reuters
As the United States accelerates the search for a coronavirus vaccine, tensions have erupted between government scientists and Moderna Inc, one of the leading developers, Reuters has learned.
The federal government is supporting Moderna’s vaccine project with nearly half a billion dollars and has chosen it as one of the first to enter large-scale human trials.
But the company – which has never produced an approved vaccine or run a large trial – has squabbled with government scientists over the process, delayed delivering trial protocols and resisted experts’ advice on how to run the study, according to three sources familiar with the vaccine project. The sources said those tensions, which have not been previously reported, have contributed to a delay of more than two weeks in launching the trial of the Moderna’s vaccine candidate, now expected in late July.
Moderna “could be on schedule if they were more cooperative,” one of the sources told Reuters.
US awards Regeneron $450 million to manufacture potential coronavirus treatment – The Hill
The Trump administration on Tuesday announced it is awarding $450 million to Regeneron Pharmaceuticals to help ramp up manufacturing of a potential coronavirus treatment the company is developing.
The funding is part of the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, which is providing funding for the manufacturing of potential coronavirus vaccines and treatments, even before they are approved, in a bid to be prepared if they are shown to work.
The program has already awarded money to potential vaccines, but this is the first funding for a potential treatment, which could be ready sooner than a vaccine.
“This agreement with Regeneron is the first of a number of Operation Warp Speed awards to support potential therapeutics all the way through to manufacturing, allowing faster distribution if trials are successful,” Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Alex Azar said in a statement.
Nearly 90 percent of COVID-19 cases at meat plants hit minority workers: CDC – The Hill
At least 17,000 meat and poultry processing facility workers in the U.S. have been infected with COVID-19, the vast majority being racial and ethnic minorities, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed in a new analysis released Tuesday.
The report is the broadest look yet at the impact of the pandemic on these workers, who are disproportionately low-wage Hispanics, though it is an undercount as less than half of the states reported data to the CDC.
Overall, the CDC identified 17,358 cases of COVID-19, including 91 deaths, among workers at 264 meat and poultry processing plants through May 31. Of the 9,919 cases where race and ethnicity information were reported, 87 percent were minorities.
About 56 percent were Hispanic, 19 percent were Black, 13 percent were white and 12 percent were Asian, “suggesting Hispanic and Asian workers might be disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 in this workplace setting,” the authors of the report wrote.
U.N. Predicts Rise In Diseases That Jump From Animals To Humans Due To Habitat Loss – NPR
A new United Nations report warns that more diseases that pass from animals to humans, such as COVID-19, are likely to emerge as habitats are ravaged by wildlife exploitation, unsustainable farming practices and climate change.
These pathogens, known as zoonotic diseases, also include Ebola, MERS, HIV/AIDS and West Nile virus. They have increasingly emerged because of stresses humans have placed on animal habitats, according to the U.N. Environment Program report Preventing the Next Pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission, released on Monday.
“We have intensified agriculture, expanded infrastructure and extracted resources at the expense of our wild spaces,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said. “The science is clear that if we keep exploiting wildlife and destroying our ecosystems, then we can expect to see a steady stream of these diseases jumping from animals to humans in the years ahead.”
Andersen said that investing in research of zoonotic diseases would allow the world to get “ahead of the game … preventing the type of global shutdown we’ve seen.”
- Economic activity in every state fell sharply during the first three months of the year, according to the latest government statistics. New York and Nevada posted 8.2% declines in GDP.
- Every state now faces a budget gap, with estimates that revenue shortfalls could total more than $200 billion through this fiscal year.
- States are weighing cuts in basic services including education, health care and public safety.
- State and local governments have shed nearly 1.5 million jobs since the pandemic began.
Airline bookings start to tumble again as coronavirus cases spike – CNN
Airline travel is bouncing back — but so are American coronavirus cases. That spike could put the aviation rebound in reverse.
United Airlines (UAL) presented sobering facts to employees Monday that bookings are tumbling as Covid cases soar. Also hurting travel demand: regulations in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut that mandate travelers from the pandemic’s US hotspots quarantine themselves for 14 days. The Wall Street Journal first reported the memo.
Near-term bookings at United’s hub in Newark were only 16% of 2019 bookings through July 1. Just a few weeks earlier, United’s bookings were down “only” 33% from a year earlier. Although United would not release the details of the briefing being given to its employees this week, it confirmed the facts detailed in the Journal’s report.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) confirmed to CNN that its booking trends in the New York area are similar to United’s, although it did not release statistics.
EPA Approves 2 Lysol Products As First To Effectively Kill Coronavirus On Surfaces – CBS
The US Environmental Protection Agency has approved two Lysol products as effective against the novel coronavirus when used on hard, non-porous surfaces.
Lysol Disinfectant Spray and Lysol Disinfectant Max Cover Mist meet the EPA’s criteria for use against the SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the ongoing pandemic, based on laboratory testing that found both products kill the virus two minutes after contact, the agency announced in a statement Monday.
While there are more than 420 products on the list of disinfectants that the EPA says are strong enough to ward off “harder-to-kill” viruses than the novel coronavirus, the two Lysol products are the first to have been tested directly against the virus and proved effective.
Despite hopes for relief this summer, the US still is battling the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, so much so that across the South and Southwest contact tracing — a key component to combating the virus — is no longer possible, a health expert says.
“The cases are rising so rapidly, that we cannot even do contact tracing anymore. I don’t see how it’s possible to even do that,” Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper Monday.
His comment comes as the United States nears 3 million officially reported cases. The country averaged just under 50,000 new cases daily over the last week — the highest rate recorded, and twice as high as a month ago.
The rapid rise in cases is considered a surge, not a second wave, because the infection numbers never lowered to where officials hoped they would, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a Facebook and Twitter livestream Monday.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Global report: India becomes third worst-affected country as giant Covid-19 hospital opens
WHO reviewing evidence of possible airborne transmission of coronavirus
Brazil’s Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus
Amid New Surge In Virus Cases, Israel’s Top Public Health Official Resigns
India Surpasses Russia In Reported Coronavirus Infections
Melbourne Resumes Lockdown As Coronavirus Cases Surge
ICE: Foreign Students Must Leave The U.S. If Their Colleges Go Online-Only This Fall
MEXICO’S COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS HAVE NEARLY TRIPLED SINCE NEW REOPENING MEASURES
WHO says experts will travel to China this weekend to study origins of COVID-19
Three pubs shut due to coronavirus cases just days after reopening
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Half of Nevada’s businesses failed to follow rules on masks, state investigators say
COVID-19 Spread by Droplets? Free Particles? Or ‘A Little Bit of Both’?
Mississippi’s lieutenant governor tests positive for coronavirus
Nearly 90 percent of COVID-19 cases at meat plants hit minority workers: CDC
Navarro urges FDA to reconsider hydroxychloroquine as treatment for coronavirus
Atlanta Mayor Tests Positive, Sees ‘Perfect Storm Of Distress In America’
Phoenix Mayor Says The City Is In A ‘Crisis Situation,’ Needs Help
Survey: 3% Of Americans Moved Due To The Pandemic
In Miami, Rolling Back Openings To Contain The Coronavirus Surge
DeSantis sends 100 nurses to help fight coronavirus surge in South Florida
Faculty led fight to compel University System of Georgia to mandate face coverings to fight COVID-19
44 Florida hospitals at ICU capacity
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Rate Improved But Remains In Contraction
May 2020 CoreLogic Home Prices: Home Prices Projected to Cool This Summer, Plunge 6.6% by May 2021
The Unequal Impact Of COVID-19: Why Education Matters
73% Of Job Seekers Believe Recession Will Last At Least Ten Months
Outlook For Latin America And The Caribbean: An Intensifying Pandemic
Economic Policies Can Induce People To Quarantine Safely During The Pandemic
U.S. Interest In Coronavirus Waning
COVID-19: Neoliberalism Is Not Going Down Without A Fight
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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