Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases today again set a new record – and today’s U.S. 7 day rolling average of new cases is now 32 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 37 % so the rate of acceleration is slowing). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Four New Virus-Fighting TechnoloHgies That Could Soon Become The Standard In Public Areas
- How we’ll know when a COVID-19 vaccine is ready
- Florida reports nearly 11,500 new coronavirus cases
- Scientists plan to ask the W.H.O. to warn that the virus can spread through the air.
Have a safe 4th of July weekend.
Repeating from yesterday, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should begin to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said today “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should start spiking next week.]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms.
My continuing warning is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 04 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 04 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 54,442 | 2,790,000 | 207,778 | 10,850,000 | 26.2% | 25.2% |
| Deaths** | 694 | 129,434 | 5,130 | 526,260 | 13.5% | 24.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 4.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.92* | 101.9* | ||||
* as of 02 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
According to CNN:
Vermont is the only US state reporting a decrease in new coronavirus cases in the past week compared to the week before.
Week-to-week cases are steady in another 12 states, and 37 are reporting increasing cases.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Meet Four New Virus-Fighting Technologies That Could Soon Become The Standard In Public Areas – ZeroHedge
As the push for some to head back to the office continues, despite being the midst of the ongoing pandemic, a focus has shifted to what kinds of technologies are going to be used in order to make sure that public areas, like office environments and airports, are virus-free.
Aside from the usual hand sanitizers and face masks, FT published a report this week highlighting some of the other technologies that businesses are choosing to employ in order to surfaces and spaces clean.
Shaun Fitzgerald, visiting professor at the University of Cambridge, said: “Pandemics like this can provide fertile ground for creative minds to think about how to do things differently.”
… One option that’s being looked at is self-cleaning surfaces
… Another option is UV irradiation.
… A third technology being used is environmental monitors that “check the pulse” of a building that already exists to assess things like CO2 levels.
… Finally, ventilation is in focus.
[editor’s note: please click through an read this post as my summary does not do justice to the information included in this post]
Here’s how we’ll know when a COVID-19 vaccine is ready – National Geographic
Now, as COVID-19 sweeps across the world and more than 140 vaccines are in the works to protect against it, the question is: How will we know when one is good enough and safe enough to counsel people to take it?
Although a typical vaccine can take years to get off the ground, those designed in this pandemic are moving ahead at a pace never seen before. At least one candidate, from the biotech company Moderna, is headed into phase three trials in July. In May, the U.S. government launched Operation Warp Speed, putting billions of dollars toward accelerating the design and testing of potential vaccines.
Some scientists are wary of settling on the first vaccine that comes to fruition. It’s a delicate balancing act for public health officials to decide when a vaccine is ready for mass rollout to the public.
If, for instance, they scale up production of a vaccine with limited effectiveness and promote it heavily, that might dissuade developers from striving to bring a better one to the market. “If you accept a vaccine with low efficacy, then you probably prevent the development of a vaccine with higher efficacy,” cautions Roland Sutter, who was coordinator for research, policy, product development, and containment for polio at the World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva, Switzerland, until retiring in December.
[editor’s note: it would be best if you click through and read the rest of this post]
WHO halts trial of HIV drugs as possible treatment for patients hospitalized with coronavirus – CNBC
- Several thousand patients had been enrolled in the lopinavir/ritonavir arm of the WHO-led Solidarity Trial as well as a separate U.K.-led coronavirus trial of those drugs.
- The Solidarity Trial was established by the WHO to find an effective coronavirus treatment for patients. It began with five arms looking at possible treatments.
- The WHO also said Saturday that it was discontinuing the hydroxychloroquine arm of its global study.
WHO halts hydroxychloroquine trials after failure to reduce death – The Hill
The World Health Organization (WHO) announced Saturday it is halting its trials of the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and HIV treatment lopinavir/ritonavir in patients hospitalized with the coronavirus after results showed the drugs did not reduce mortality rates.
“These interim trial results show that hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir produce little or no reduction in the mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients when compared to standard of care. Solidarity trial investigators will interrupt the trials with immediate effect,” the WHO said in a statement, referencing multi-country trials it is conducting.
The group, a United Nations agency, said it was ending the tests on the recommendation of the drug trial’s international steering committee. The pause does not impact other studies in which the drugs are used for patients who are not hospitalized.
The WHO is also examining the potential effect of remdesivir, an anti-viral drug from Gilead, on COVID-19.
The WHO’s announcement comes two days after a study was released linking the use of hydroxychloroquine by COVID-19 patients to lower death rates.
- Florida on Saturday reported at least 11,445 new coronavirus cases, the state’s largest number of daily cases so far, according to figures released by the Florida Department of Health.
- The U.S. reported more than 52,000 new cases as the coronavirus spikes across the American South and West.
- Even as Florida reports record case numbers, Gov. Ron DeSantis has said he won’t close businesses again and has repeatedly refused to order a statewide mask mandate to curb the spread of the virus.
How Hong Kong beat coronavirus and avoided lockdown – YouTube
Despite being one of the world’s most dense cities, Hong Kong never went into lockdown — making it one of the only major cities to do so. CNBC’s Uptin Saiidi explains how the city overcame the pandemic with minimal restrictions.
US labs report Covid-19 testing delays as case numbers rise – CNN
Major commercial laboratories in the United States are reporting delays in returning Covid-19 test results as the pandemic rages on and case numbers surge in parts of the country.
While the number of tests conducted across the US increases, experts say long turnaround times can make it difficult to isolate confirmed cases and quickly quarantine their close contacts.
Quest Diagnostics, a commercial laboratory, said this week that testing demand has reached “unprecedented levels,” leading to delays. LabCorp, another laboratory, is reporting delays too.
While Quest can provide results in a day for priority patients – including sick health care workers and people in the hospital – the company said its average turnaround time is three to five days for most other patients.
Florida shatters single-day record, records over 11,000 new coronavirus cases – The Hill
Florida on Saturday reported 11,458 new coronavirus cases, shattering the single-day record established on Thursday.
The Florida Department of Health has now reported 190,052 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 3,702 deaths, including 18 new fatalities reported on Independence Day, according to the Orlando Sentinel. There have been an additional 101 deaths of non-Florida residents.
The single-day record was last broken on Thursday, when more than 10,000 new cases were reported.
Florida is one of several states, including Texas, California and Arizona, that have become hot spots for new infections in the U.S.
Scientists plan to ask the W.H.O. to warn that the virus can spread through the air. – New York Times
An international group of 239 experts is calling on the World Health Organization to recognize that the coronavirus can be spread through the air, especially in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation.
In an open letter the researchers plan to publish, they say there is clear evidence that the virus can be transmitted by microdroplets, called aerosols. The W.H.O.’s official guidance discounts aerosols as a major form of transmission, saying the virus is spreading mostly through larger respiratory droplets that don’t travel far.
But most of the recent research suggests the scientists are correct, with enormous implications for how people should protect themselves. For example, ventilation systems in schools, nursing homes, residences and businesses may need to minimize recirculating air, aim to provide clean outside air, and add powerful filters or ultraviolet lights that can destroy the virus.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Japan reports more than 200 daily coronavirus cases for the first time in two months
Lockdown ordered for 200,000 in northeastern Spain due to Covid-19 outbreaks
Tokyo governor urges people to stay indoors over weekend as virus cases spike
India records its highest daily rise in coronavirus cases
16 fresh coronavirus cases linked to gym in South Korean apartment building
Iraq’s health care system is nearing breakdown.
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Hospitals in at least two Texas counties at full capacity amid statewide spike in coronavirus cases
States Shatter Coronavirus Records As Officials Eye Holiday Weekend With Alarm
How Six Flags plans to survive coronavirus
DC Sees 9 Days of Lower Community Spread But Coronavirus Infections, Deaths Continue
Trump signs extension for small business lending program
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
BRIC PMIs 2Q 2020: Services, Manufacturing, And Composite
Better Than Expected Jobs Report – Another Market High?
Building A Bridge To A Vaccine
What Do Recoveries From Past US Recessions Teach Us About The Recovery From The Pandemic Recession?
Presidents’ Panel: How COVID-19 Will Change Higher Education
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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