Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved, remains deep in contraction, and remains at a level at the values seen during the Great Recession.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline is more immediate and not lagging off six months as one would expect. We are in a recession.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was virtually unchanged at 133.4, while the growth rate increased further to -8.7%.
U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The May economy’s rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth marginally improved and continues to show economic contraction.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May economy’s rate of growth (released in june) showed the rate of growth declined.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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