Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases grew today (and are significantly elevated) – and today’s 7 day rolling average of new cases is now 40 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 43 %). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- A new swine flu strain found in Chinese pigs has ‘pandemic potential’
- Two New coronavirus tests have been approved by the FDA
- A national mask mandate would gain 5% to the pandemic affected GDP
- FDA Outlines Its Conditions for Approving a Covid-19 Vaccine
- Companies have raised prices on 245 drugs during pandemic
- Two New coronavirus tests have been approved by the FDA which reduce false positives / negatives
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing. No mask or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk.
The number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and now the 7-day rolling average is in record territory for new cases this week.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 28 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 30 June 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 41,556 | 2,590,000 | 160,047 | 10,270,000 | 26.0% | 25.2% |
Deaths** | 336 | 126,140 | 3,730 | 505,295 | 9.0% | 25.0% |
Mortality Rate | 0.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 4.9% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.77* | 93.62* |
* as of 28 June 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Here are the states that require the use of masks or face coverings in public settings [source: CNN]
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Fauci warns that the U.S. could see 100,000 new cases a day, and officials aim to counter vaccine skeptics. – New York Times
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned Tuesday that the number of new infections in the United States could more than double to 100,000 a day if the country fails to contain the surge that is now underway in many states.
He noted that the recent sharp rise in cases, largely in the South and the West, “puts the entire country at risk.”
“We are now having 40-plus thousand new cases a day,” Dr. Fauci said. “I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around. And so I am very concerned.”
A new swine flu strain found in Chinese pigs has ‘pandemic potential,’ experts say – USA Today
Researchers have discovered a swine flu virus in Chinese pigs that may be able to jump to humans and are sounding the alarm for another potential pandemic as international public health experts still struggle to contain the coronavirus.
Chinese and British scientists found that the new virus, G4 EA H1N1, shares characteristics with the H1N1 virus that caused the global pandemic in 2009. Among the similarities, the new virus can bind to, infect and replicate in tissue cells located the human airways, according to a study published Monday in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study was part of a surveillance project to identify potential pandemic influenza strains. Researchers analyzed nearly 30,000 nasal swabs taken from pigs in slaughterhouses in 10 Chinese provinces and another 1,000 nasal swabs from pigs with respiratory symptoms from 2011 to 2018.
“This Is Not Just Accidental”: How One Coronavirus Mutation Helped The Virus Conquer The Globe – ZeroHedge
Scientists have been hard at work unraveling the mysteries of SARS-CoV-2 since January, when Beijing finally shared a mapped genome with the global scientific community (though early research also filtered out via the British journal “The Lancet”). At this point, scientists around the world have examined hundreds of thousands of viral samples from around the world. They’ve compared and contrasted their genetic code, and they’ve identified what appears to be an important pattern. That is: the earliest version of the virus that spread in Wuhan is not genetically identical to the iteration that went on to conquer Europe and the US.
According to a Bloomberg report comparing the findings from four non-peer-reviewed studies, it appears that a notable mutation of the virus that emerged broadly and early during its global campaign helped render COVID-19 more infectious in later iterations than it was during the early weeks of the outbreak, raising fears that the virus could continue to evolve in a way that eludes scientists working on a vaccine, or simply makes the virus more deadly.
- At least four laboratory experiments suggest that the mutation makes the virus more infectious, although none of that work has been peer-reviewed. Another unpublished study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory asserts that patients with the G variant actually have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it to others.
- The mutation doesn’t appear to make people sicker, but a growing number of scientists worry that it has made the virus more contagious.
- “The epidemiological study and our data together really explain why the [G variant’s] spread in Europe and the U.S. was really fast,” said Hyeryun Choe, a virologist at Scripps Research and a lead author of an unpublished study on the G variant’s enhanced infectiousness in laboratory cell cultures. “This is not just accidental.”
Another team of researchers described the feeling of shock when they realized just how much more effective this mutation made the virus in terms of its ability to break into human cells.
This coronavirus mutation has taken over the world. Scientists are trying to understand why. – Washington Post
When the first coronavirus cases in Chicago appeared in January, they bore the same genetic signatures as a germ that emerged in China weeks before.
But as Egon Ozer, an infectious-disease specialist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, examined the genetic structure of virus samples from local patients, he noticed something different.
A change in the virus was appearing again and again. This mutation, associated with outbreaks in Europe and New York, eventually took over the city. By May, it was found in 95 percent of all the genomes Ozer sequenced.
At a glance, the mutation seemed trivial. About 1,300 amino acids serve as building blocks for a protein on the surface of the virus. In the mutant virus, the genetic instructions for just one of those amino acids — number 614 — switched in the new variant from a “D” (shorthand for aspartic acid) to a “G” (short for glycine).
… At least four laboratory experiments suggest that the mutation makes the virus more infectious, although none of that work has been peer-reviewed. Another unpublished study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory asserts that patients with the G variant actually have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it to others.
… The mutation doesn’t appear to make people sicker, but a growing number of scientists worry that it has made the virus more contagious.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Vaccine ‘Deemed Safe’ in Phase I Test – The Street
Inovio Pharmaceuticals said Tuesday that INO-4800, its experimental coronavirus vaccine, was “deemed safe and well-tolerated” in all 40 of the participants in a Phase I clinical trial.
The Phase I trial of INO-4800 enrolled 40 healthy adult volunteers 18 to 50 years of age at two U.S. sites with funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.
Inovio said 94% of Phase I trial participants demonstrated overall immune responses “at Week 6 after two doses of INO-4800.
Through Week 8, the company said the “INO-4800 regimen was deemed safe and well-tolerated with no serious adverse events.
Two New coronavirus tests have been approved by the FDA
From CNN:
The US Food and Drug Administration has issued an emergency use authorization to the company Beckman Coulter for its Covid-19 antibody test.
Beckman Coulter announced the authorization on Monday and noted that it has already shipped tests to more than 400 hospitals, clinics and diagnostics labs in the United States, as well as begun distributing the test globally. The company claims it is able to deliver more than 30 million tests a month.
“At a time when significant confusion was created by the initial influx of poor-quality antibody tests, our team worked meticulously to develop a highly sensitive and specific assay,” Julie Sawyer Montgomery, president of Beckman Coulter, said in the company’s announcement.
“With 100% Positive Percent Agreement and 99.6% Negative Percent Agreement, our test significantly reduces the risk for false positives, delivering the results that health care providers and their patients can trust,” Sawyer Montgomery said. “A lot has been written about accuracy issues with the initially launched antibody tests, but a test at this level offers positive predictive values greater than 90% even in very low prevalence communities. And, in areas hardest hit by the virus, the positive predictive values of our assay are greater than 98%.”
From CNBC:
- Danaher’s Covid-19 antibodies test received emergency clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the medical device maker said Monday.
- Beckman Coulter, a unit of the company, said it had shipped the tests to nearly 400 U.S. hospitals and laboratories, and has ramped up production to deliver more than 30 million tests a month.
- Antibody tests can indicate a certain degree of immunity in those who have had the virus and are seen as a key component of reopening plans.
Goldman Sachs did the math and a national mask mandate to slow the spread of coronavirus would save this much in U.S. economic growth – Market Watch
… a recent report from Goldman Sachs projects that a lack of a national policy mandating the use of facial coverings throughout the U.S. is delivering an unnecessary hit to the domestic economy.
A team of economists lead by Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman, makes the case that a national face-mask mandate could partially substitute for renewed lockdowns, as COVID-19 inflections flare up in a number of southern and western states in the U.S., that would “otherwise subtract 5% from gross domestic product.” (See attached chart):
… Their data showed that countries that fail to reach widespread masking usage see both infections and deaths increased:
Mexicans offered little coronavirus aid as death and economic tolls climb – AXIOS
While the massive coronavirus outbreaks in Brazil and the United States have garnered global attention in recent weeks, the per capita death rate has actually been higher in the hemisphere’s third giant: Mexico.
Why it matters: The three populist-led countries have combined for roughly half of all COVID-19 deaths recorded worldwide over the past two weeks. Worse still, Mexico’s outbreak has yet to peak, according to Johns Hopkins University.
- Mexico has one of the highest fatality rates in the world — over the last 24 hours, for example, Mexico recorded 10% as many cases as the U.S. but more deaths — likely because few people are tested before they’re seriously ill.
- The health care system has struggled to cope, while the messaging from the government has been inconsistent.
- As recently as late March, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was encouraging Mexicans to continue to hug, kiss and gather in groups.
- The leftist leader has argued that the poor can’t afford to quarantine and stressed that, virus or no virus, life must go on.
FDA Outlines Its Conditions for Approving a Covid-19 Vaccine – Wall Street Journal
The Food and Drug Administration released guidance Tuesday outlining its conditions for approving a Covid-19 vaccine, including a requirement that any vaccine be at least 50% more effective than a placebo in preventing the disease.
The FDA said that no vaccine would be approved unless a vaccine company had “clearly demonstrated” proof of a vaccine’s safety and effectiveness through a clinical study, according to the guidance.
Global COVID-19 prevention trial of hydroxychloroquine to resume – Reuters
A global trial designed to test whether the anti-malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can prevent infection with COVID-19 is to restart after being approved by British regulators.
The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) took its decision on what is known as the COPCOV trial after hydroxychloroquine was found in another British trial to have no benefit as a treatment for patients already infected with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
The COPCOV study was paused pending review after the treatment trial results.
In March 2020, the RECOVERY trial was established as a randomised clinical trial to test a range of potential treatments for COVID-19, including lopinavir-ritonavir (an antiviral treatment commonly used to treat HIV). Over 11,800 patients have been enrolled from 176 NHS hospitals in the UK.
On Thursday 25 June, the independent Data Monitoring Committee conducted a routine review of the emerging data and recommended that the chief investigators be unblinded to the results for the lopinavir-ritonavir arm.
Today, the trial Steering Committee concluded that there is no beneficial effect of lopinavir-ritonavir in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and closed randomisation to that treatment arm.
Companies have raised prices on 245 drugs during pandemic, advocacy group says – The Hill
Pharmaceutical companies have raised prices on 245 drugs since the first U.S. coronavirus case was reported on Jan. 20, according to a report released Sunday by an advocacy group.
Sixty-one of the drugs that saw price increases are being used to treat COVID-19, and 30 are in clinical trials, the group Patients for Affordable Drugs said in its report. The price hikes are on par with increases the previous two years.
The report found that 44 inpatient drugs have seen price increases during the pandemic, including 20 drugs commonly used in intensive care units: sedatives, steroids, blood pressure medications and blood thinners.
Arizona Issues New Shutdown Order As Coronavirus Cases Spike – NPR
In an about-face, Arizona’s Gov. Doug Ducey has ordered the state’s bars, gyms, movie theaters and water parks to shut down for at least 30 days amid thousands of new coronavirus cases in the state.
Ducey issued the order Monday to go into effect from 8 p.m. local time, citing concern over a recent spike in new cases — including a one-day record of more than 3,800 in the state on Sunday. It was the seventh time in the past 10 days that new cases in Arizona exceeded 3,000. He also ordered public schools to delay the start of classes until Aug. 17.
“Our expectation is that our numbers next week will be worse,” he said, describing the state’s coronavirus data as “brutal.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Learning from Taiwan about responding to Covid-19 — and using electronic health records
South Korea Holds Onto Patient Data From Prior Coronavirus, Worrying Privacy Groups
EU Sets New List Of Approved Travel Partners. The U.S. Isn’t On It
Airbus To Cut Around 15,000 Jobs Worldwide Amid Pandemic
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
People with coronavirus are crossing the US-Mexico border for medical care
Jacksonville to order mask-wearing ahead of GOP convention
No mask mandate at July GOP convention leaves Houston hospitality workers uneasy
Pandemic Blues Or Signs Of Extremism? New Guide Teaches Parents To Stay Alert
With Big Summer Films Delayed, AMC Theatres Puts Off U.S. Reopening
Senators Call For Investigation Of States’ Nursing Home Policies During Pandemic
New Jersey Puts Indoor Dining On Pause Indefinitely Because Of Coronavirus
The Paycheck Protection Program is ending with money to spare.
Amazon memo reveals Covid-19 was more prevalent in Minnesota warehouse than surrounding areas
Roughly 25% of New York City has probably been infected with coronavirus, Dr. Scott Gottlieb says
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
June 2020 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Increases
June 2020 Chemical Activity Barometer Again Declines and Remains Deep In Contraction
June 2020 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Improves But Remains In Contraction
July 2020 Economic Forecast – The Recession Is Likely Over But A Strange Recovery Is Beginning
Existing Cancer Drugs Identified That Could Fight COVID-19
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 29 June 2020 Down $0.54 From A Year Ago
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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