Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases continue to hit new records – and today’s 7 day rolling average of new cases is now 43 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 37 %). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- New outbreaks – and mixed messaging – leave some Americans questioning their shutdown sacrifices
- Thinking of driving to Canada this summer?
- Covid-19 has infected many times more people than reported in US, antibody survey estimates
- Stop shaming people who aren’t wearing masks
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing. No mask or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk. There are still idiots out there thinking masks don’t work because they have done some mumbo-jumbo calculation about comparing stopping mosquitos with a chain-link fence (which is a fair comparison when thinking of sizes). However, there are too many studies which prove masks LOWER the risk of catching coronavirus if you are in an environment where you cannot social distance and you are indoors AND others are also wearing masks. There is likely little risk reduction is you wear a mask and no one else does. The best solution is social distancing.
The number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and now is in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 27 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 26 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 45,527 | 2,470,000 | 188,633 | 9,770,000 | 24.1% | 25.3% |
| Deaths** | 623 | 125.039 | 4,703 | 493,898 | 13.2% | 25.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 5.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.93* | 88.24* | ||||
* as of 25 June 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
The United States has higher infection rates even though its population (330 million) is smaller than the European Union (440 million).
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Coronavirus Causes Weaponized ‘Tentacles’ To Sprout From Infected Cells, Directly Inject Virus Into New Ones – ZeroHedge
The virus behind COVID-19 causes infected cells to sprout ‘tentacles’ which allow the virus to attack several nearby cells at once – poking holes which allow the disease to easily transfer inside.
This nightmare fuel was discovered by researchers led by the University of California, San Francisco.
“There are long strings that poke holes in other cells and the virus passes through the tube from cell to cell,” said UCSF’s Director of the Quantitative Biosciences Institute, Professor Nevan Krogan. “Our hypothesis is that these speed up infection.“
According to the report, the silver lining is that the tentacle discovery may pave the way for a number of drugs to work against the disease – most of which were previously being used to treat cancer.
“It totally makes sense there’s an overlap in anticancer drugs and an antiviral effect,” said Prof. Krogan, who added that cancers, HIV and SARS-CoV-2 are all searching for the “Achilles heel of the cell.”
Thinking of driving to Canada this summer? Better ask the locals. – National Geographic
Canada has been off limits to all foreigners since March 21, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently announced that borders will remain closed to all but essential travel until at least July 21. Almost everyone eligible to enter it—Canadians included—is required to quarantine for 14 days. And yes, the government and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police do check to make sure.
Besides, in its most recent weekly survey of how Canadians feel about travelers arriving from anywhere, government tourism agency Destination Canada found that only between 9 and 18 percent of respondents “strongly or somewhat agree with welcoming visitors to their community” from the U.S. Only about 50 percent of respondents are comfortable with travelers coming from within their own province, let alone from outside the country.
New outbreaks — and mixed messaging — leave some Americans questioning their shutdown sacrifices. – New York Times
With new cases of the coronavirus suddenly surging across multiple states that had low and manageable caseloads just months ago, confusion and anger is swirling among those who obeyed lockdowns and drastic social measures out of a sense of civic duty to help bring the U.S. outbreak under control.
Nationwide, cases have risen 65 percent over the past two weeks. On Friday, the country reported more than 45,000 new infections, its third consecutive day of record new cases, and a number of states have also been seeing record new levels. On Saturday, Florida, Nevada and South Carolina reported their highest one-day case totals. Before this week, the country’s largest daily total had been 36,738 on April 24.
Many business owners and workers who lost their jobs say they believe their leaders failed to prepare for the economic devastation that followed shutdowns that states adopted, to differing degrees, since March. And they say that recent reopenings undercut their sacrifices.
Covid-19 has infected many times more people than reported in US, antibody survey estimates – CNN
The total number of Covid-19 infections may be six to 24 times greater than reported, according to a survey of blood samples in six areas across the country conducted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The survey looked for Covid-19 antibodies in blood samples from commercial laboratories – which were collected for reasons unrelated to Covid-19, between March 23 and May 3 – in Connecticut, South Florida, the New York City metro area, Missouri, Utah and western Washington State.
In Connecticut, the survey estimated that 5% of people had antibodies to Covid-19 between April 26 and May 3, which meant there were six times more cases than reported.
In the New York City metro area, that number was 7% of people around late March – 12 times higher than the number of cases reported then. And the survey estimates that 2.65% of Missourians had antibodies in late April. In that case, there were nearly 162,000 cases by April 26 in the state – 24 times higher than the 6,800 reported at the time.
CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield hinted at preliminary results on Thursday when he told reporters, “The estimates that we have right now … is that’s about 10 times more people have antibody.”
- Surgeon General Jerome Adams said “shaming does not work” when it comes to getting people to follow public health advice, including the advice to social distance and wear masks.
- Adams said he was “disappointed” to see public health officials resort to “just out-and-out shaming” to get Americans to comply with coronavirus prevention.
- Instead, he thinks officials should take the time to help people understand why they should take the recommendations and what the dangers are if they don’t.
Every single beauty salon worker in Beijing is being tested for the coronavirus – CNN
China recorded 21 new coronavirus cases on Friday — including 17 which were locally transmitted in Beijing, according to the country’s National Health Commission.
The other four were imported cases, reported in Guangdong, Shanghai and Gansu.
Twelve more asymptomatic cases were also confirmed nationwide. The NHC counts these asymptomatic positive cases separately.
The new cases come after Beijing’s Hairdressing and Beauty Association issued an emergency notice requiring all staff at hair, nail and beauty salons to be tested for the virus, according to the state-run Beijing Daily newspaper.
The report added that customers entering salons will continue to have their temperature taken and present their health QR codes, which are color-coded to represent a person’s health status and risk level.
U.S cases pass 2.5 million, but new C.D.C. data shows current testing vastly undercounts actual infections. – New York Times
On Saturday, the number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. shot past 2.5 million, according to a New York Times database.
But the real number in many parts of the United States is more than 10 times higher than the reported rate, according to data released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The analysis is part of a wide-ranging set of surveys initiated by the C.D.C. to estimate how far the virus has spread. It found, for instance, that in South Florida as of April 10, under 2 percent of people had been exposed to the virus. (The proportion is likely to be much higher now, given the surge of infections in the state.) The C.D.C. estimated 117,400 people in that region had been infected — about 11 times the reported number of 10,500 cases.
The results confirm what some scientists have warned about for months: that without wider testing, scores of infected people go undetected, and continue to circulate the virus.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Cases in Egypt are soaring. Its mosques, cafes and restaurants are reopening anyway.
Vizcarra extends the state of emergency due to the corona virus in Peru until July 31
Italian students will return to school in September
India has more than half a million coronavirus cases
Brazil reports 46,860 additional COVID-19 cases, Expanded testing of mild cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Justice Department Issues Warning About Fake ‘Mask Exempt’ Cards
Judge Orders ICE To Free Detained Immigrant Children Because Of COVID-19
Immigrant Warehouse Workers Are Crammed In Vans Despite Virus Danger
SC tops 1,500 new coronavirus cases Saturday for new record
Florida sees another rise in COVID-19 cases after huge spike
Houston’s county moves to red alert.
Trump campaign postpones Pence’s campaign events in Florida and Arizona
With COVID-19 cases rising, Washington puts a pause on Phase 4 of reopening
‘In hindsight’: Gov. Abbott says he should’ve delayed the opening of bars
Los Angeles health care system risks being overwhelmed, county health director warns
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Coincident Indices Remain Infected By Coronavirus
The Impact Of The Feds Response To COVID-19 So Far
The Great Lockdown Through A Global Lens
Outflows From Bank-Loan Funds During COVID-19
COVID-19 And The Economy: Where Do We Go From Here?
How The Fed Protects Banks And The Rich, While Congress Pretends It’s Broke
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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