Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases are now seeing accelerated growth – and today’s new cases were the highest since 26 April 2020. Even worse, the global 7 day rolling average of new cases set a new record today. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Nearly Half Of Americans Consider Selling Home As COVID Crushes Finances
- Remdesivir Works Against Many Viruses. Why Aren’t There More Drugs Like It?
- Face masks don’t even have to work especially well to be effective
- Vaccines Will Underwhelm, And Why Gilead Has A Substantially Larger Market Opportunity
- China Suspends Poultry Imports From Tyson Foods Plant In Arkansas
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high and increasing, the U.S. continues to be a smaller and smaller portion of the new global coronavirus cases.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 21 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
The following graphs are the weekly totals where for the third week in a row, U.S. new cases were larger than the previous week. Although global deaths continue to grow each week, in the U.S. deaths are still declining.
There are few new pieces of information on the coronavirus over weekends. However, we publish two articles today which summarize the happenings over the past week:
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Nearly Half Of Americans Consider Selling Home As COVID Crushes Finances – ZeroHedge
New research offers a glimpse into struggling households, discovers out of the 2,000 American homeowners polled, over half (52%) of respondents say they’re routinely worried about making future mortgage payments and nearly half (47%) considered selling their home because of the inability to service mortgage payments.
The study, conducted by OnePoll and the National Association of Realtors, determined 81% of respondents had experienced unexpected financial stress due to the virus-induced recession. Over half (56%) reduced spending so they could service mortgage payments.
… From clothing (71%) and take-out (66%) to streaming TV services (46%) and groceries (45%), respondents said their spending habits had been significantly reduced so they could service mortgage payments.
… In a separate report, more than 4 million homeowners are in mortgage forbearance plan – representing 7.54% of all mortgages, delinquencies are set to surpass the great recession, which peaked at 10%.
Oxford Economics said 15% of homeowners would fall behind on their monthly mortgage payments in a ‘tidal wave’ of delinquencies, which was similar to the prediction by Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, who said that as many as 30% of Americans with home loans – or around 15 million households, may stop paying if the US economy remains closed through the summer or beyond.
Remdesivir Works Against Many Viruses. Why Aren’t There More Drugs Like It? – Smithsonian
Viruses are more slippery targets than bacteria. They’re often a hundred times smaller and consist only of bare-bones cellular machinery. Their tiny footprint creates a conundrum for researchers: There are simply fewer targets at which to aim antivirals, especially for drugs that would shoot for the rare viral components that remain common across diverse types of viruses. Hepatitis C, for example, is caused by HCV viruses from Flaviviridae, a family that also includes the virus behind yellow fever. Some Hepatitis C treatments are so targeted that they combat only some of the six main types of HCV, and certainly not yellow fever. Scientists call this virus-pinpointing model the “one drug, one bug” approach.
An antiviral’s mechanism can’t be too generic, either. “The broader you go, the more likely you are to pick off something in the host cell,” says Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. For instance, a broad-spectrum antiviral called ribavirin, which fights both Hepatitis C and respiratory syncytial virus, can cause birth defects and destroy blood cells. To deal directly with the microorganisms at the root of the disease, “you want it to be very exquisitely targeted to the virus and not affect the host,” Adalja says. (Broad-spectrum treatments called host-acting or host-directed antivirals are an exception to this rule, aiming for the host instead of the virus, but can come with the possibility of serious side effects.)
[editor’s note: i cannot do justice to the information in this article – it is worth a complete read]
Face masks don’t even have to work especially well to be effective – ARS Technica
Mask use actually has two different functions. To a degree, it limits the ability of people who are infected to put infectious particles into the environment. And to a potentially different degree, it limits access to two of the primary routes by which those particles can reach new hosts: the mouth and nose. It’s not a complete solution, as a person’s eyes are still uncovered, and the degree of effectiveness will vary based on how many potentially infectious particles are filtered out. Still, even a crude mask is likely to capture many of the largest particles we produce, and those are the ones that will carry the most viruses.
There’s also some uncertainty about the virus’s behavior. We don’t know how much of it is present in a typical droplet expelled by an infected person or how long the virus remains infectious once those particles make it to the environment. There’s also some residual uncertainty about when a person becomes infectious relative to the onset of symptoms. While some of these unanswered questions don’t alter the effectiveness of masks, they can influence how effective policies on mask use are.
… But for the most part, mask use alone isn’t able to get there. If, as in the top row, people start wearing masks after the onset of symptoms, there are no scenarios in which face masks alone are able to stop the pandemic—even if they are 95-percent effective and everyone with symptoms wears them. By contrast, if everyone wears them all the time, even a 75-percent effective mask could possibly bring the rate of new infections down on its own.
Vaccines Will Underwhelm, And Why Gilead Has A Substantially Larger Market Opportunity – Seeking Alpha
- The complex immunogenicity of COVID-19 strongly suggests vaccines and antibody treatments are unlikely to deliver meaningful results.
- We are unlikely to develop immunity to COVID-19, making it our newest endemic virus.
- Antivirals are the best and most practical way to treat COVID-19.
- Antivirals such as Gilead’s Remdesivir have a significantly bigger clinical need and market opportunity than is currently appreciated.
- We estimate Gilead has a multi-year, multi-billion dollar opportunity with Remdesivir.
20/06/20: COVID19 Update: Sweden v Other Nordics – trueeconomics
Sweden is a now a verifiable basket case amongst the Nordic countries when it comes to the country management of the COVID19 pandemic:
China Suspends Poultry Imports From Tyson Foods Plant In Arkansas – NPR
[editor’s note: can coronavirus be transmitted via food processors?>
China is halting the import of poultry from a Tyson Foods plant in Arkansas following an outbreak of coronavirus cases at the facility.
The nation’s General Administration of Customs office made the announcement on Sunday, saying shipments from the plant would be temporarily suspended, while products that have already arrived will be seized.
Tyson Foods confirmed to NPR that the announcement pertains to its Berry Street facility in Springdale, Ark., where 227 workers tested positive for the coronavirus earlier this month. All but four of them were asymptomatic, according to Tyson.
CDC to make updated recommendation on masks ‘soon’ – 8 News Now
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is planning to update its recommendation on masks.
CDC researchers have been conducting a scientific review about the masks during the coronavirus pandemic.
Scientists wanted to find out if masks protect people from contracting COVID-19, not just prevent them from spreading it.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
South Korea Limits Visas To Pakistan, Bangladesh After Surge In Imported COVID-19 Cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
U.S. banks are ‘swimming in money’ as deposits increase by $2 trillion amid the coronavirus
Tulsa County Sets Third Straight New Daily High in COVID-19 Cases, Breaks 2,000 Total
Coronavirus Florida: New cases crack 3,000 for 4th day in past week
Officials across the South warn more young people are testing positive for coronavirus
Coronavirus Statistics For 21 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 34,158 | 2,260,000 | 161,585 | 8,800,000 | 21.1% | 25.7% |
| Deaths | 607 | 119,719 | 4,207 | 466,189 | 14.4% | 25.7% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.8% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 5.3% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.76* | 80.26* | ||||
* as of 20 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
How Does Social Distancing Affect The Spread Of Covid-19 In The United States?
Distribution Of COVID-19 Incidence By Geography, Race, And Income
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 20June 2020
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 20June 2020
US Economy Is Collapsing In June
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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