Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases are now seeing accelerated growth – and today’s new cases were the highest since 02 May 2020. Even worse, the global new cases set a new record today. Folks, this pandemic does not want to go away. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Doctor Warns Of Risks In Rush To Embrace A COVID-19 Treatment
- Why black-owned businesses were hit the hardest by the pandemic
- Six Trump campaign staffers working on Tulsa rally test positive for coronavirus
- Coronavirus: German slaughterhouse outbreak crosses 1,000
- Mexico blows past 20,000 coronavirus deaths
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing. A great thought on wearing masks from John Mauldin’s newsletter – Thoughts from the Frontline:
For now, what can we do? Our immediate problem stems from two sources.
- The coronavirus is continuing to spread.
- Concerned consumers are spending less money.
One simple thing we can all do will help attack both problems: Wear a mask in public. We can live with the virus risk, but not when a noticeable part of the population acts in ways others perceive as reckless. Walking around in public without a mask is like wearing an “I want a deeper recession” sign.
Note, it doesn’t matter whether you believe the mask really helps, or the virus is really dangerous. Perception is what counts. As long as substantial numbers believe normal life is too risky, the economy can’t recover. It is really that simple.
I’ll go further. Near-universal mask usage would help the economy more than another multi-trillion-dollar stimulus package would—a lot more, and faster, too. And without adding a penny to the national debt. You can see that in other countries.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high and increasing, the U.S. continues to be a smaller and smaller portion of the new global coronavirus cases.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 18 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
TAYLOR ENGINEERING COVID-19 WHITE PAPER – Taylor Engineering
As might be expected given our line of work, our customers who build and manage buildings are asking us what role HVAC systems might play with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic. Questions include:
[editor’s note: If you are technically bent, this white paper is a good read on how the a/c systems spread coronavirus – and what mitigation steps are possible]
- Can our building’s HVAC systems, perhaps with some enhancements, make our buildings safe to occupy as they were before the pandemic? Taylor Engineering’s opinion: Absolutely not.
- Ok, but can our HVAC systems, perhaps with some enhancements, mitigate disease transmission? Taylor Engineering’s opinion: Perhaps, but most likely not in a significant way.
Cruise lines voluntarily suspend all trips out of U.S. ports until Sept. 15, trade group says – CNBC
Major cruise lines have agreed to voluntarily extend a suspension of operations out of U.S. ports until Sept. 15, the Cruise Lines International Association announced Friday.
“Due to the ongoing situation within the U.S. related to COVID-19, CLIA member cruise lines have decided to voluntarily extend the period of suspended passenger operations,” CLIA, which represents the largest cruise companies in the world, said in a statement. “It is increasingly clear that more time will be needed to resolve barriers to resumption in the United States.”
Members of the trade group, which includes cruising giants such as Royal Caribbean, Carnival Corp. and Norwegian Cruise Line, had previously announced a pause of operations on March 13.
On March 14, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a no-sail order for cruise ships, and on April 9 it extended the order until July 24.
Doctor Warns Of Risks In Rush To Embrace A COVID-19 Treatment – NPR
Earlier this week, researchers in the United Kingdom announced preliminary results from a clinical trial that showed a low-cost steroid called dexamethasone appeared to lower the risk of death in patients with COVID-19.
… But, in a world not pressured by a pandemic, a legit vetting process like that can take years, said Lyke. And she worries that a hasty embrace of the drug could do more harm than good.
“People really want to get results out quickly,” she said. “But at the same time, if things are released too early or there’s harm that occurs from the intervention, that really erodes public trust.”
Lyke said researchers need to be mindful to avoid a scenario where, as was the case with the drug hydroxychloroquine, a treatment is championed before it has a chance to stand up to strict scientific scrutiny.
That wasn’t the first instance of confusion over messaging related to the science around the coronavirus. For example, public health officials’ guidance on whether the public should wear masks initially fluctuated until the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officially recommended face coverings in April.
Half Of States Where Pentagon Lifts Travel Ban Have Rising Coronavirus Infections – NPR
Despite tracking data indicating new coronavirus infections are on the rise in 23 states, the Pentagon on Friday announced it is lifting pandemic-inspired travel restrictions for U.S. military personnel in 46 states, as well as in the U.S. territories of Guam and Puerto Rico.
Among the states deemed fit for a resumption of travel by military personnel is Arizona, which has had a sharp spike in confirmed COVID-19 cases over the past two weeks, as well as others with notable recent upticks in infections, including Alabama, Texas and Oklahoma.
The Pentagon’s own guidance for lifting restrictions stipulates that a state must show a “14-day downward trajectory of new COVID-19 cases or positive tests,” as well as having had its shelter-in-place or other travel restrictions lifted and showing what the Department of Defense describes as a “14-day downward trajectory of flu-like and COVID-19-like symptoms.”
Why black-owned businesses were hit the hardest by the pandemic – Fortune
While small businesses across the country struggle amid shutdowns, the brunt of the impact has fallen on black-owned businesses.
According to a recent study for the National Bureau of Economic Research by Robert Fairlie at the University of California at Santa Cruz, the number of black business owners actively working fell 41% from February to April—representing a massive loss of 440,000 black business owners. The number of black business owners who were working in April was 640,000, down from 1.1 million. Active white business owners dropped 17%.
Fairlie, the author of the study, tells Fortune he was “shocked” at the findings. But those like Eugene Cornelius, senior director at the Milken Institute’s Center for Regional Economics and California Center and alum of the Small Business Administration, don’t think anyone should be surprised.
“What is amazing is everybody is asking why—we knew this,” he tells Fortune. “The virus has pulled the sheet off of what has been going on in the black community for years.”
There’s a fight brewing over whether companies are responsible when workers get coronavirus – CNBC
Thomas Ward, founder of Pig Floyd’s Urban Barbakoa in Orlando, Florida, said he’s taken the proper safety precautions at his restaurant, but some customers continue to show up without masks. Ward fears this could lead to an employee catching the coronavirus and, later on, a lawsuit alleging he didn’t do enough to protect them.
“As small businesses, we have to protect ourselves because there are frivolous lawsuits out there,” Ward said. “We follow all the rules with temperature checks, gloves, masks, stickers on the floor for social distancing, but a lot of customers aren’t wearing masks.”
Business owners’ concerns have caught the attention of Congress, as lawmakers weigh the possibility of passing another Covid-19 stimulus package. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he would push to include liability protections for businesses in upcoming legislation.
“If there’s any red line, it’s on litigation,” McConnell said last month. “The litigation epidemic has already begun.”
Six Trump campaign staffers working on Tulsa rally test positive for coronavirus – CNN
Six staffers working on President Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, have tested positive for coronavirus, the Trump campaign said Saturday.
Just hours before the President is expected to arrive in the state, Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a statement that “per safety protocols, campaign staff are tested for COVID-19 before events. Six members of the advance team tested positive out of hundreds of tests performed, and quarantine procedures were immediately implemented.”
“No COVID-positive staffers or anyone in immediate contact will be at today’s rally or near attendees and elected officials,”he said.
Yakima County, Washington hospitals exceed capacity; report critical staffing shortages – Yakima Herald
Virginia Mason Memorial and other Yakima County hospitals have exceeded staffing capacity, prompting Yakima Health District officials to urge residents to forgo gatherings during the Father’s Day weekend to minimize spread of COVID-19.
Virginia Mason Memorial had no intensive care or non-intensive care beds available Thursday night, despite transferring more than 17 patients out of the county, the Yakima Health District said in a news release Friday. As a result, multiple patients were forced to wait for hospital bed space overnight, and several were still waiting for a bed Friday afternoon.
The health district said the county’s hospitals are struggling with staffing. Employees are out due to having COVID-19 or staying at home after showing COVID-19 symptoms or coming in close contact with an infected individual. The health district said all of the county’s hospitals have reported “critical staffing shortages” over the past week.
“We’ve been dealing with this for three months, we have beds, we’re not at (bed) capacity, but we have 47 COVID-19 patients that require extra care and resources,” said Virginia Mason Memorial CEO Carole Peet in a statement Friday. “It’s about manpower. It’s about making sure we can care for our sickest patients. We’ve made the decision to transfer patients when we’re at maximum capacity for staff and resources.
Coronavirus: German slaughterhouse outbreak crosses 1,000 – DW
Officials in northwestern Germany insist the wider community is not yet at risk. But they complain that they’ve lost trust in the country’s largest meat processing firm over delays in contacting staff.
The total number of people infected with the coronavirus at a slaughterhouse in northwestern Germany has risen to 1,029, up from over 600 earlier this week, according to officials.
The outbreak at the Rheda-Wiedenbrück meat processing plant, in the district of Gütersloh, near Bielefeld, was made public on June 17. The plant is run by Tönnies – the largest meat processing firm in Germany.
The factory has been closed for 14 days following initial reports of the outbreak, said the head of the crisis team Thomas Kuhlbusch.
Mexico blows past 20,000 coronavirus deaths – Reuters
Coronavirus deaths in Mexico surpassed 20,000 on Friday after the health ministry reported 647 new fatalities and 5,030 new confirmed cases.
Total cases now stand at 170,485, with 20,394 fatalities, though the government has said the real number of infections is likely significantly higher than the confirmed cases.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Coronavirus: Spain to allow UK tourists without quarantine
French Health Ministry sprayed with red paint by coronavirus protesters
Australian state reimposes Covid-19 restrictions, eyes ‘localised’ lockdowns
Brazil Blames Record Spike In COVID-19 Cases On ‘instable’ Data From States
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Phoenix Passes Face Mask Mandate Amid Arizona Coronavirus Surge
MLB Closing Florida And Arizona Training Facilities For Coronavirus Cleaning
AMC Theatres Will Now Require Guests To Wear Maks When It Reopens
Ford and Fiat Chrysler return to full production Monday
NFLPA recommends that NFL players stop practicing together
Police Shut Down Three Miami-Dade Restaurants for Alleged Social Distancing Violations
Update: Two from Atlanta United, one from Inter Miami test positive for COVID-19
The Miami Dolphins have opened a socially distanced drive-in theater at Hard Rock Stadium
Two MLB teams to move spring training to New York, governor says
Coronavirus Statistics For 20 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 29,909 | 2,220,000 | 176,963 | 8,630,000 | 16.9% | 25.7% |
| Deaths | 678 | 119,112 | 5,120 | 462,076 | 13.2% | 25.8% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.4% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.41* | 76.75* | ||||
* as of 18 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Corporate Bond Spreads And The Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers
Combating COVID-19: How Should Banking Supervisors Respond?
How Fed Swap Lines Supported The U.S. Corporate Credit Market Amid COVID-19 Strains
How Do Unemployment Benefits Relate To Job Search Behavior?
Infographic Of The Day: Growth Of COVID-19 In The U.S.
Even If COVID-19 Goes Away, The Economy Isn’t Going Back To “Normal”
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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