Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases are now seeing accelerated growth – this is a worrying sign to some pandemic specialists. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- 10 Percent of Wuhan Study Patients Lose Coronavirus Antibodies Within Weeks
- Decline in new US virus deaths may be temporary reprieve
- COVID-19 slump in retail and recreation traffic has long tail, creating drag on recovery
- Antibodies Tested as Possible COVID Treatment
- Why black-owned businesses were hit the hardest by the pandemic
- We will be living with the coronavirus pandemic well into 2021
- Students Face $10 Trillion In Lost Earnings Due To Pandemic
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, the U.S. continues to be a smaller and smaller portion of the new global coronavirus cases.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 18 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
10 Percent of Wuhan Study Patients Lose Coronavirus Antibodies Within Weeks – Newsweek
Chinese scientists have cast doubt over whether we have long-lasting immunity to the coronavirus in two studies released this week, prompting them to question the use of immunity certificates.
The authors of the first study submitted to the pre-print website medRxiv concluded that people are unlikely to have protective antibodies against the coronavirus for long periods of time. As the findings are a pre-print, they have not been through the rigorous peer review process required to publish in scientific journals. Scientists partly release papers this way to prompt debate on a topic.
For the study, the scientists looked for antibodies specific to the coronavirus in the blood samples of 1,470 COVID-19 patients in three hospitals in Wuhan, China—the original epicentre of the pandemic. Previous research cited by the authors suggests that antibodies which make up the first line of defense against the coronavirus are detectable around 7 days after a person is infected, while virus-specific antibodies can take around two weeks.
Decline in new US virus deaths may be temporary reprieve – AP
The number of deaths per day from the coronavirus in the U.S. has fallen in recent weeks to the lowest level since late March, even as states increasingly reopen for business. But scientists are deeply afraid the trend may be about to reverse itself.
“For now, it’s too soon to be reassured that deaths are going down and everything’s OK,” said Dr. Cyrus Shahpar of Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit organization that works to prevent epidemics.
Deaths from COVID-19 across the country are down to about 680 a day, compared with around 960 two weeks ago, according to an Associated Press analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The analysis looked at a seven-day rolling average of deaths through Wednesday.
… Rising case numbers can partially be explained by the wider availability of testing. Mild cases, previously undetected because of limits on who could be tested, are now showing up in the numbers.
How likely are kids to get Covid-19? Scientists see a ‘huge puzzle’ without easy answers – STAT
In January, when it became clear that a new coronavirus was transmitting with ease among people in central China, one of the top questions scientists who study disease dynamics wanted answered was this: What role are children playing in the spread of the new disease, now known as Covid-19?
Five months later, they and the rest of us would still like to know.
There is some evidence that kids are less likely to catch the virus and less likely to spread it, but it’s not clear exactly how strong that evidence is. Much of it was generated at a time when children were caught up in the topsy-turvy world of Covid-19 transmission suppression, with schools closed and families cocooned, limiting their chances of catching or spreading the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In reality, it may take reopening schools and returning children to a closer-to-normal life for the picture to come into clearer focus.
Antibodies Tested as Possible COVID Treatment – WebMD
Some experts think an antibody therapy will be available before a vaccine.
“If I could look into a crystal ball, I would think there could be a 6- to 12-month period where you’d have antibodies available before vaccines came online,” says James Crowe, MD, director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Center in Nashville. “That would be great, because then we could bridge to a vaccine.”
Coronavirus in Context: Vaccines for COVID-19, Twelve Months Ma
Vaccines create something called active immunity. They spur the immune system to make its own weapons against an invader. Antibody therapies represent a different approach to treatment, called passive immunity. In passive immunity, scientists find an antibody that fights a problem protein, and then make copies of it to give back to patients to treat a disease or condition. While it can take weeks to develop active immunity against a threat, passive immunity works much faster.
Giving patients antibodies to create passive immunity is an approach that’s been used for decades to treat everything from macular degeneration, to cancer, to autoimmune diseases, to infections like respiratory syncytial virus and HIV.
In a package of five studies published Monday in the journal Science, researchers working around the world report on their efforts to find and develop antibodies to stop the virus.
COVID-19 slump in retail and recreation traffic has long tail, creating drag on recovery – The Conference Board
GPS data from cellphones show that government-mandated restrictions on physical movement at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic caused a steep decline in trips to retail stores and recreation venues of between 40 to 90 percent. The impact has been strongest in France, which has also seen the strongest rebound in mobility in recent weeks. Mobility declined the least in the United States and Japan and is currently less than 20 percent below February levels in both nations. In contrast, movements in the UK are still more than 50 percent below February levels.
The data in the chart clearly shows that in every country, the initial drop in traffic to shops and entertainment was swift. However, the rebound toward prepandemic levels takes a lot longer, even after restrictions are lifted. This is one reason the rebound in economic activity has been limited.
A second wave of COVID-19 may not limit mobility to the same extent as in March and April, but these data are a good reminder that shutting down is easier than opening up. Even when restrictions are lifted, stagnation lingers as consumers hesitate to re-engage with the economy.
What Spike? Hospitalization Data Show No Indication of a Second Wave – AIER
Rather than focus on test results, i.e. “cases,” it would make more sense to focus on how the virus affects society and our institutions, particularly the strain the virus puts on health care facilities and health care providers. An obvious measure, tracked since the beginning of the pandemic, is the number of deaths. As I and others at AIER have noted, the number of deaths is hard to interpret without important context.
The coronavirus is obviously deadly, but how deadly it is seems to depend greatly on how it enters a population and the characteristics of that population. The virus has been far deadlier in New York than it has been in California, and has been most deadly in U.S. long-term care facilities. Among children, the coronavirus is considerably less deadly than seasonal influenza.
Nonetheless, deaths tell us something important about the virus’s impact on society. They profoundly affect entire social networks and are rightly emphasized in pandemic reporting.
source: Washington Post
Coronavirus Forecast Researchers Say Florida Could Become Next Outbreak Epicenter – U.S. News
[editor’s note: Florida’s increase in new cases is not showing up in the cases which require hospitalization.]
The state “has all the makings of the next large epicenter … the risk there is the worst it has ever been in our projections,” researchers behind a coronavirus model put out by the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania wrote in a recent blog post.
“Miami and Florida’s southeastern counties now join the Tampa/Fort Myers area and Orlando for a fairly widespread transmission event that we forecast will continue throughout the state,” they continued.
… The state’s new cases are trending upward, with officials confirming 3,207 additional cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, setting the record for the highest daily total. The previous record was set on Tuesday with 2,783 infections.
Some parts of the U.S. are ‘on the cusp of losing control’ of coronavirus, Dr. Scott Gottlieb says – CNBC
- The coronavirus continues to infect about 20,000 people in the U.S. every day.
- Cases have been gradually increasing roughly since Memorial Day weekend in a number of states, including Arizona, Texas, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas and others.
- “These are outbreaks. We’re seeing doubling times now falling under 10 days,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb said. “These are on the cusp of getting out of control.”
Why black-owned businesses were hit the hardest by the pandemic – Fortune
While small businesses across the country struggle amid shutdowns, the brunt of the impact has fallen on black-owned businesses.
According to a recent study for the National Bureau of Economic Research by Robert Fairlie at the University of California, Santa Cruz, the number of black business owners actively working fell 41% from February to April—representing a massive loss of 440,000 black business owners. The number of black business owners who were working in April was 640,000, down from 1.1 million. Active white business owners dropped 17%.
Fairlie, the author of the study, tells Fortune he was “shocked” at the findings. But those like Eugene Cornelius, senior director at the Milken Institute’s Center for Regional Economics and California Center and alum of the Small Business Administration, don’t think anyone should be surprised.
“What is amazing is everybody is asking why—we knew this,” he tells Fortune. “The virus has pulled the sheet off of what has been going on in the black community for years.”
Coronavirus: Beijing outbreak under control, but cases will continue, epidemiologist says – South China Morning Post
The latest coronavirus outbreak in Beijing has been brought under control, even though new cases are likely to be reported for several days to come, China’s top epidemiologist said on Thursday.
The fresh wave of infections linked to the Xinfadi wholesale food market peaked on Saturday and the curve was flattening, suggesting the spread of the disease had been contained, said Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.
Beijing reported 21 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday – taking the total since the start of the outbreak on June 11 to 158 – but Wu said the latest patients probably became infected some time ago.
“Newly reported cases do not equal new infections,” he said.
The difference between a second wave and a second peak of coronavirus, according to WHO – CNN
There are no specific definitions for classifying a second wave or a second peak of coronavirus, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program, said during a briefing on Friday.
Ryan did explain some differences between both:
A second wave, Ryan said, is when “a number of cases rises and it falls down to a very low or detectable level.”
“There’s a period of time in which there’s very low or no activity, and then the disease returns in a large way. That’s what we see with seasonal influenza,” Ryan said.
A second peak is a different concept — one that “many countries are facing now,” Ryan said.
“When they’ve come off the peak of the first wave, but they haven’t reduced the disease down and they’re in a steady state where they’re struggling to reduce the incidence of the disease, and then they get a second peak,” Ryan said. During a second peak, community transmission is still occurring, he added.
“You may have a second peak within your first wave. And then you may have a second wave. It’s not either or,” Ryan warned.
Consumers Are Gradually Restoring a Sense of Safety – Statista
As the weekend approaches, people remain limited in their choices on what to do in their spare time. While businesses are gradually reopening across the United States, many Americans are still hesitant to return to normalcy as the coronavirus threat still lingers.
According to a poll regularly conducted by Morning Consult over the past few weeks, Americans are gradually restoring a sense of safety, but the majority still feels uncomfortable engaging in popular pastime activities.
Between June 9-11, 41 percent of respondents felt comfortable going out to eat. Six weeks earlier, only 18 percent would have been comfortable doing so. As the following chart shows, the level of comfort is still much lower for other activities. Only 23 percent would go to the movies comfortably at the moment and just 12 percent would feel safe traveling abroad. These numbers show that opening back up is one thing, but rebuilding consumer trust is an entirely different proposition.
You will find more infographics at Statista
We will be living with the coronavirus pandemic well into 2021 – the japan times
The virus is winning. That much is certain more than six months into a shape-shifting pandemic that’s killed 450,000 people worldwide, is gaining ground globally and has disrupted lives from Wuhan to Sao Paulo.
While promising, fast-moving vaccine projects are underway in China, Europe and the U.S., only the most optimistic expect an effective shot to be ready for global distribution this year.
If, as most experts believe, an effective vaccine won’t be ready until well into 2021, we’ll all be coexisting with the coronavirus for the next year or longer without a magic bullet. And this next phase of the crisis may require us to reset our expectations and awareness and change our behavior, according to public-health professionals.
In their view, success isn’t defined as returning to life as it was in 2019. Rather, it’s about buying time and summoning the staying power and policy flexibility to limit the destructive capacity of an expanding pandemic, which may result in global deaths of more than one million according to one estimate, until there are medical tools to effectively treat and immunize against the virus.
Students Face $10 Trillion In Lost Earnings Due To Pandemic – Financial Advisor
The current generation of students is at risk of losing $10 trillion in earnings over time due to pandemic-related school closures, the World Bank said.
The estimate is based on a five-month school closure, the World Bank said in a report published on Thursday. The virus left 1.6 billion students out of school at the peak of the shutdowns in April. Close to 7 million students may drop out of primary and secondary school as a result of the income shock of the pandemic, the development institution said.
The combination of being out of school and the loss of family livelihoods caused by Covid-19 also may leave girls particularly vulnerable and worsen exclusion and inequality, especially for people with disabilities and other marginalized groups, the World Bank said.
People who believe wild coronavirus conspiracy theories rely on YouTube for most of their information on the pandemic – Business Insider
- Researchers at King’s College London surveyed over 2,000 people in the UK to study how likely people are to believe conspiracy theories about the coronavirus.
- People who got their news primarily from social media were more likely to believe conspiracy theories, and the researchers found consuming information on YouTube had the strongest correlation with believing them.
- People who got their news from social media were also more likely to break quarantine and lockdown rules.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Fitch cuts India’s outlook to ‘negative’
Indonesian Virus Cases Top Singapore as Pandemic Spreads
Coronavirus was already in Italy by December, waste water study finds
Coronavirus: India’s Chennai back in lockdown as cases spike
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Apple Closing 11 Stores Again In States Seeing a Spike in Coronavirus Cases
Members Of Congress Ask Why More Coronavirus Aid Hasn’t Been Spent On Nursing Homes
California Gov. Newsom Makes Face Masks Mandatory Amid Rising Coronavirus Cases
Fed adds coronavirus scenarios to this year’s bank stress tests
Coronavirus mortgage bailout shrinks further, but bank-held loans are faring worse
The US is in process of notifying WHO that it is withdrawing, senior state official said
Navy upholds firing of carrier captain who warned of coronavirus
‘Dramatic decline’ in average age of Florida coronavirus patients
Coronavirus Statistics For 19 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 27,762 | 2,190,000 | 137,590 | 8,460,000 | 20.2% | 25.9% |
| Deaths | 717 | 118,434 | 5,131 | 455,761 | 14.0% | 26.0% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.41* | 76.75* | ||||
* as of 18 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
12 June 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improves Again But Continues In Contraction
Rail Week Ending 13 June 2020 – Slight Improvement But Remains Deep In Contraction
Quarantine Bubbles – When Done Right – Limit Coronavirus Risk And Help Fight Loneliness
Economic Consequences Of COVID-19 In The EU-19
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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