Written by Steven Hansen
So far, there is no evidence that there is a growth in new cases following the end of the lockdown. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Coronavirus to Shave Trillions From the Economy Over 10 Years
- Pandemic Causes Spike in Anxiety & Depression
- Global manufacturing downturn eases in May, but only China enjoys growth
- Siemens Healthineers Receives FDA Emergency Use Authorization for its SARS-CoV-2 Total Antibody Test that Delivers Superior Clinical Performance
Keep wearing your mask and maintaining social distance. According to a study published by Lancet Medical Journal:
- Physical distancing: The chance of transmission at a distance of less than 1 meter (3.3 feet) was 12.8%, while that fell to 2.6% at a distance of more than 1 meter (3.3 feet). It added that distances of 2 meters (6.6 feet) could be more effective. It said that the certainty of the evidence was “moderate.”
- Face masks: The chance of transmission without a face mask or respirator (like an N95 mask) was 17.4%, while that fell to 3.1% when a mask was worn. However, the certainty of the evidence was “low.”
- Eye protection: The chance of transmission without eye protection was put at 16%, compared to 5.5% with some form of eye protection as a face shield, visor, goggles or glasses. However, the certainty of the evidence was “low.”
You will find more infographics at Statista
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Large Review Finds Good Evidence for Masks, Distancing in Stopping COVID-19 – MedPage Today
Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as physical distancing of more than about 3 feet and wearing a medical mask and eye goggles, may be associated with reductions in COVID-19 transmission, a systematic review and meta-analysis found.
A review of at least 172 studies on SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, found transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of more than about 3 feet versus less than about 3 feet, reported Holger J Schünemann, MD, of McMaster University in Ontario, Canada, and colleagues of the COVID-19 Systematic Urgent Review Effort.
Both face masks and eye protection could be associated with reduction in risk of infection, although the evidence for both was “low certainty,” the authors wrote in the Lancet.
Stock market shocks: COVID-19 and lessons of the past – The Conference Board
Does the recent V-shaped recovery of the S&P 500 suggest the worst of the COVID-19 crisis is over? Comparisons to past crises show this will not necessarily be the case.
- During the Great Recession (2008-2009), the initial drop and recovery in the S&P 500 occurred more slowly than what we’ve seen since the COVID-19 pandemic began. A larger drop-off came nearly a year after the market peak of October 2007: Lehman Brothers didn’t collapse until September 2008. The post-Lehman recovery took much longer than the rebound we’ve seen in the past few weeks. Could a widespread resurgence of COVID-19 cases produce a “Lehman effect“? If so, another large drop-off is possible.
- The Great Depression’s stock crash of 1929 was of the same magnitude as the drop-off spurred by the pandemic. A temporary recovery between November 1929 and April 1930 was mainly the result of “FOMO”—fear of missing out, which may be the case today too. From April 1930 onward, the S&P 500 suffered a turbulent, continued decline, partially due to increased protectionism fueled by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Import duties and retaliatory actions between trading partners strained the already weakened US economy, prolonging the decline for several years. Today, we could see more financial market turbulence and an extended bear market if geopolitical and economic conflicts deepen.
As past crises have taught us, an initial stock market rally is no guarantee that we are out of the woods. The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal stimulus will only become clearer in the coming months. New stock market shocks, stemming from the pandemic or geopolitical tensions, could cause a return to volatility and new declines.
Coronavirus to Shave Trillions From the Economy Over 10 Years – New York Times
The Congressional Budget Office projected on Monday that the coronavirus pandemic would inflict a serious long-term blow to the United States economy, taking 3 percent off the gross domestic product 10 years from now.
Without adjusting for inflation, the budget agency said, the pandemic would cost nearly $16 trillion over the next 10 years. Adjusting for inflation, that number would still total $7.9 trillion. The estimates were an official tally of the damage the crisis has wrought, reflecting expectations of dampened consumer spending and business investment in the years ahead.
Gilead’s next step on coronavirus: inhaled remdesivir, other easier-to-use versions – Reuters
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD.O) is developing easier-to-administer versions of its antiviral treatment remdesivir for COVID-19 that could be used outside of hospitals, including ones that can be inhaled, after trials showed moderate effectiveness for the drug given by infusion.
Remdesivir is the only drug so far that has been shown to help patients with COVID-19, but Gilead and other companies are looking for ways to make it work better.
For critically ill patients, Roche (ROG.S) and Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.N) are testing drugs in combination with remdesivir.
Eli Lilly begins first human tests of an antibody drug against Covid-19 – Stat
Researchers have begun testing what appears to be the first new medicine developed specifically against Covid-19, in a milestone for drug companies aiming to combat the disease, the medicine’s makers said Monday.
The medicine, a human-made antibody against the coronavirus that causes the disease, was discovered by a Vancouver company, AbCellera, and is being developed by Eli Lilly, the Indianapolis-based drug giant. Two other efforts, one from the biotechnology firm Regeneron and another from the partnership of Vir Biotechnology and GlaxoSmithKline, are expected to begin testing of their own antibody drugs soon. Lilly’s current study will only test the drug for obvious side effects, giving it to 32 people at various doses.
“We’re not racing against each other,” Daniel Skovronsky, the chief scientific officer at Eli Lilly, said of the other companies. “We’re racing against the death toll from the virus. I hope there will be multiple successful [antibody drugs]. I expect there will be.”
Moderna Doses First Participants In Phase 2 Study Of Coronavirus Vaccine – Yahoo Finance
Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) announced late Friday it has dosed the first participants in a Phase 2 trial of its mRNA vaccine, codenamed mRNA-1273, against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna said first participants in the two cohorts — adults ages 18-55 and older adults ages 55 years and above — have been dosed.
The Phase 2 study sponsored by the company will evaluate the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of two vaccinations of mRNA-1273 given 28 days apart, with each participant receiving placebo, a 50-microgram dose or a 100-microgram dose at both vaccinations.
The company said the participants will be followed through 12 months after the second vaccination.
Pandemic Causes Spike in Anxiety & Depression – Statista
Aside from killing more than 100,000 Americans to date and wreaking havoc on the country’s economy, the COVID-19 pandemic is also taking its toll on mental health. That’s according to new data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics, showing that one third of U.S. adults have symptoms of depression or anxiety, a sharp increase over the results of a comparable survey conducted in the first half of 2019.
The latest findings are derived from the Household Pulse Survey, which has been launched to produce data on the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 on American households. A total of 119,897 Americans were surveyed about their mental health between May 14 and 19, asked to report how often they have felt down, depressed, hopeless or anxious in the last week, how often they have been unable to stop worrying or shown little interest or pleasure in doing things – all symptoms that have been shown to be associated with diagnoses of generalized anxiety disorder or major depressive disorder.
As the following chart shows, the share of respondents showing signs of anxiety or depression has more than tripled compared to results obtained before the pandemic. As thousands have died and millions have lost their jobs, Americans are facing a plethora of uncertainties with respect to their and their families’ health and financial wellbeing, worries which are only exacerbated when dealt with alone amid a time of social distancing.
You will find more infographics at Statista
CMS Releases Data on COVID-19 in Nursing Homes – MedPage Today
More than 60,000 U.S. nursing home residents have contracted COVID-19 and nearly 26,000 have died, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reported Monday.
The numbers come from reports submitted by about 12,500 of the 15,400 nursing homes regulated by CMS — an 80% response rate, CMS Administrator Seema Verma said on a phone call with reporters. In April, the agency began requiring nursing homes to report COVID-19 cases and deaths to the CDC.
“This data is being made public for the first time,” Verma said, adding that she expected more nursing homes will report every week. Homes that don’t will risk penalties, including fines.
Global manufacturing downturn eases in May, but only China enjoys growth – IHS Markit
- Global manufacturing PMI signals softer contraction of output in May
- Only China reports growth but downturns ease in all other countries except Japan and Australia
- Global demand and trade continue to fall sharply, underscoring concerns for growth in coming months
China delayed releasing coronavirus info, frustrating WHO – Associated Press
Throughout January, the World Health Organization publicly praised China for what it called a speedy response to the new coronavirus. It repeatedly thanked the Chinese government for sharing the genetic map of the virus “immediately,” and said its work and commitment to transparency were “very impressive, and beyond words.”
But behind the scenes, it was a much different story, one of significant delays by China and considerable frustration among WHO officials over not getting the information they needed to fight the spread of the deadly virus, The Associated Press has found.
Despite the plaudits, China in fact sat on releasing the genetic map, or genome, of the virus for more than a week after three different government labs had fully decoded the information. Tight controls on information and competition within the Chinese public health system were to blame, according to dozens of interviews and internal documents.
Chinese government labs only released the genome after another lab published it ahead of authorities on a virologist website on Jan. 11. Even then, China stalled for at least two weeks more on providing WHO with detailed data on patients and cases, according to recordings of internal meetings held by the U.N. health agency through January — all at a time when the outbreak arguably might have been dramatically slowed.
No new COVID sufferers, 300 asymptomatic, after Wuhan-wide tests – Reuters
The Chinese city of Wuhan, where the novel coronavirus outbreak began, has found no new cases of people suffering from COVID-19 after testing almost its entire population, and 300 asymptomatic carriers of the virus, officials said on Tuesday.
Authorities launched the vast testing campaign on May 14, and reached 9.9 million out of 11 million people, after a cluster of new cases raised fears of a second wave of infections.
China does not count people who are infected with the virus but do not show symptoms of the disease as confirmed cases.
Siemens Healthineers Receives FDA Emergency Use Authorization for its SARS-CoV-2 Total Antibody Test that Delivers Superior Clinical Performance – Siemens Healthineers
- Total antibody test has demonstrated 100 percent sensitivity and 99.8 percent specificity in identifying SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
- The test detects the antibodies believed to neutralize the SARS-CoV-2 virus; specifically targeting antibodies that attach to a spike protein on the surface of the virus.
- The test is available on the company’s high-throughput analyzers that can deliver up to 440 tests/hour1 and report results in as few as 10 minutes.
- The company has production capacity for more than 50 million tests per month as the pandemic evolves to address the largest installed base in the U.S.
Summer heat unlikely to stop the spread of coronavirus, NIH says – CNN
Warmer weather is unlikely to stop the spread of the deadly coronavirus, Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, said in a blog post Tuesday.
“Climate only would become an important seasonal factor in controlling COVID-19 once a large proportion of people within a given community are immune or resistant to infection,” Collins wrote, citing experts in infectious disease transmission and climate modeling.
“We’ll obviously have to wait a few months to get the data. But for now, many researchers have their doubts that the COVID-19 pandemic will enter a needed summertime lull,” he added.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Merkel Partners Haggle Over $111 Billion Stimulus as Talks Slow
Outdoor seating only: Parisian cafes eke out space along sidewalks
France Sees Deeper Recession, Tokyo’s New Spike: Virus Update
City of Tokyo issues stay-home alert after jump in new virus infections
How to more safely protest in a pandemic
New Zealand expected to lift coronavirus restrictions next week after 11 days without new cases
The following are state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
North Carolina governor tells RNC ‘very unlikely’ they can host full convention as planned
Coronavirus Statistics For 02 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 21,086 | 1,810,000 | 109,058 | 6,250,000 | 19.3% | 29.0% |
| Deaths | 764 | 105,147 | 3,757 | 376,427 | 20.3% | 27.9% |
| Mortality Rate | 3.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 6.0% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.30* | 51.17* | ||||
* as of 31 May 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2020 CoreLogic Home Prices: Home Prices Holding Steady Despite Coronavirus
Deflation: Why The “Japanification” Of The U.S. Looms Large
An Unemployment Crisis After The Onset Of COVID-19
Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
Has The Stock Market Moved On From COVID-19?
Health Crisis: Different Economic Animal From Financial Crisis
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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