Written by Steven Hansen
Today’s global new coronavirus cases hit a new high – the pandemic is far from over. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- a new study suggests wearing a face mask at home could help limit the spread of COVID-19;
- COVID Vaccine Makers May Need to Infect Subjects to Get Results;
- study linking Hydroxychloroquine to COVID risks questioned;
- and a study suggests wearing a face mask at home could help limit spread of COVID-19.
Econintersect published this morning a post on consumer income and expenditures. This post shows a huge jump in income (because of the economic recovery payments sent to most Americans), but expenditures declined a record 17.3 % year-over-year.
As usual, let me remind readers that much of the information we are passing along on the coronavirus will likely be invalidated once more is known. Information is knowledge and we need to proceed based on the best information at the time – but I believe one needs to be continually skeptical of things we think are true.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Study Linking Hydroxychloroquine to Covid Risks Questioned – Bloomberg
The study, published last week in The Lancet medical journal, found high rates of dangerous side effects in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, and some work on testing the drugs in patients has been suspended based on the concerns it raised. A group of some 120 researchers signed a letter pointing out inconsistencies, calling on the authors and The Lancet to reveal more details about their analysis.
… The letter pointed out 14 major shortcomings in the paper, including that computer code used to analyze the data wasn’t made public, and that no information was included on the medical centers that contributed data. It also said that rates of deaths reported from Africa seemed “unlikely,” that the daily doses purportedly received by some U.S. patients appeared higher than recommended, and that the level of chloroquine use in some continents was “implausible.”
The letter called on the U.S. company holding the data for the study, Chicago-based Surgisphere, to provide greater detail, and for an independent evaluation of the analysis. When scientists asked to see more of the data, according to the letter, Mehra replied that the authors weren’t able to share it under agreements with countries, governments and hospitals.
New study suggests wearing a face mask at home could help limit spread of COVID-19 – CTV
Results of the study, published in the BMJ Global Journal on Thursday, concluded that wearing a face mask inside the home was 79 per cent effective in preventing transmission of COVID-19 between an infected person and other family members, but only before symptoms of the virus were present. It also found that the use of a face mask after symptoms of the coronavirus were present did little to provide additional protection.
When asked to clarify what kinds of masks were included in the research, one of the study’s authors and a professor of global biosecurity at the University of New South Wales, Raina MacIntyre, told CTVNews.ca in an email that participants wore surgical masks.
The study also found that daily disinfection habits in the household using chlorine or ethanol-based products also helped to curb transmission rates by 77 per cent. This was supported by another key finding in the study that showed the risk of close-contact transmission increased by four times if the infected person was experiencing diarrhea as a symptom. In the report, researchers said this finding established the importance of regularly cleaning the bathroom and toilet, as well as closing the toilet lid during flushing “to prevent the aerosolization of the virus.”
Evidence for Limited Early Spread of COVID-19 Within the United States, January-February 2020 – CDC
The first U.S. cases of nontravel-related COVID-19 were confirmed on February 26 and 28, 2020, suggesting that community transmission was occurring by late February.
What is added by the report?
Four separate lines of evidence (syndromic surveillance, virus surveillance, phylogenetic analysis, and retrospectively identified cases) suggest that limited U.S. community transmission likely began in late January or early February 2020, after a single importation from China, followed by multiple importations from Europe. Until late February, COVID-19 incidence was too low to be detected by emergency department syndromic surveillance for COVID-19-like illness.
What are the implications for public health practice?
Enhanced syndromic and virus surveillance will be needed to monitor COVID-19 trends for the duration of the pandemic.
[editor’s note: click through on the article hyperlink if you want greater detail]
Covid Vaccine Makers May Need to Infect Subjects to Get Results – Bloomberg
Drugmakers sprinting to deliver potential Covid-19 vaccines say they’re facing a new hurdle: declining infection rates that could make it hard to test their shots.
If the disease ebbs further in some regions, not enough people will be exposed to the coronavirus to make studies possible, AstraZeneca Plc Chief Executive Officer Pascal Soriot said Thursday in a briefing with journalists. Researchers may have to consider deliberately infecting healthy volunteers with the virus, though it’s still too early to take that step, he said.
CDC Director Claims New Analysis Exonerates Agency On Testing Delay – NPR
The head of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention claimed Friday that a new analysis shows the agency’s delayed rollout of coronavirus testing did not hinder the nation’s response to the pandemic.
The coronavirus didn’t started spreading in the U.S. until late January or early February, the CDC analysis found, and it circulated at very low levels for quite some time.
As a result, the availability of earlier widespread testing for the virus would not have been able to spot the virus, according to CDC Director Robert Redfield.
Covid-19 Will Make Colleges Prove Their Worth – Bloomberg via Advisor Perspectives
… Some institutions have come clean about what they have to offer: Cambridge and the California State University system, for example, have admitted that they won’t be meeting normally for a year. Others, such as Notre Dame, are trying to make it work with scheduling changes and a combination of testing, contact tracing and quarantine. No matter what they do, though, college is no longer the warm and fuzzy proposition it used to be.
This leaves students and parents facing a much starker decision than usual. Whatever they were paying, the product has changed. Unless colleges make the deal a lot more attractive, many people will withhold their money. If they do pay up based on administrators’ overly optimistic promises, the outcome could be a huge legal mess as a bunch of angry parents try to get their money back.
I’m guessing that in the short term, colleges will have to cut prices to sell a mostly online education. Some students will try to wait it out, hoping things will get back to normal. Others will get used to learning, making connections and getting jobs online. Which means that in the longer term, more people might reconsider the value of a four-year degree, complete with the exorbitant on-campus experience. College might never be the same.
Moderna Vaccine Unlikely to Revive U.S. Economy, Survey Says – Bloomberg
Investors think Moderna Inc.‘s experimental Covid-19 inoculation wouldn’t be enough to unlock the economy, an Evercore ISI survey showed.
The survey of over 100 investors — more than half of whom specialize in health care — found there’s a 43% probability that Moderna’s vaccine would be sufficient to set the U.S. economy aright, analyst Joshua Schimmer wrote in a note. Still, a majority expect the next update on mRNA-1273 will be positive and predicted emergency use authorization will be granted in the fourth quarter and regulatory approval in 2021.
… Criticism of the first look at Moderna’s vaccine data has been mounting and pessimism about the potential for a broadly used vaccine has tamped down some of the more heady stock gains among companies racing to stymie the spread of Covid-19. As less sophisticated investors propped up Moderna’s stock it became the least profitable short in all of biotech, according to S3 Partners data showing investors lost $1.14 billion through last week.
Will COVID-19 Leave Lasting Economic Scars? – Richmond Fed
Bhattarai, Schwartzman, and Yang show how local labor market adjustments to temporary economic shocks can leave lasting scars on employment and output. To the extent that much of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be through a large but temporary reduction in demand for certain goods and services, the long-term impacts may operate through similar channels. Additionally, the finding that regions that experienced the largest housing shock also suffered the deepest long-run losses suggests that regions facing larger shocks from the pandemic may also experience larger persistent losses in employment and output if workers migrate from those regions to less-affected areas.
Some Nursing Homes Escaped Covid-19—Here’s What They Did Right – Wired
Geriatricians and nursing home operators understand why these spaces are so vulnerable. Long-term care facilities are, in many ways, perfect virus incubators. Residents, who are older, frail, and often have comorbidities like heart disease or diabetes, are more susceptible to severe Covid-19 infections. Many need help performing basic tasks like eating, dressing, or bathing—care that can’t be delivered through a video appointment, making it more likely they could get an infection from the aides who help them, or pass the virus along to their caretakers. Those aides may work at several different facilities, and unknowingly carry it from one home to another.
… Out of the nearly 10,000 seniors served by MSSP [Multipurpose Senior Services Program in California], only three have died of Covid-19 so far, says Claire Ramsey, a senior staff attorney at Justice in Aging, a nonprofit that advocates for low-income seniors. “This is a way safer way to provide care,” she comments. Chodos notes that seniors who receive care in their homes also have lower rates of depression, and experience slower cognitive and physical decline. And home care is also usually what seniors would prefer, says Unroe: “People should be cared for where they want to be cared for. Almost anyone would say that is in their homes.”
Advocates say that nursing homes are necessary, but they shouldn’t be the default care solution for seniors who need some assistance. “There should be a continuum of care, and institutional care should really be reserved for people who need it, who can’t be successful and safe in their own homes,” says Ramsey.
Trump Severs WHO Ties – Bloomberg
President Donald Trump said the U.S. will sever ties with the World Health Organization, the United Nations body he accuses of failing to provide accurate information on the spread of the coronavirus that broke out in China.
“Because they have failed to make the requested and greatly needed reforms, we will be today terminating our relationship with the World Health Organization and redirecting those funds to other worldwide and deserving, urgent global health needs,” Trump told reporters in the Rose Garden of the White House. “The world needs answers from China on the virus. We must have transparency.”
The U.S. contributes more than $450 million to the WHO, Trump said.
Every worker on one Tennessee farm has tested positive for coronavirus – Daily KOS
“Every Single Worker Has Covid at One U.S. Farm on Eve of Harvest.” Read that headline one more time: “Every Single Worker Has Covid at One U.S. Farm on Eve of Harvest.” That farm is in Tennessee. A farm in New Jersey has more than 50 workers with the virus, and in a neighboring county nearly 60 more on another farm have been ill. An Oneida, New York greenhouse operation growing tomatoes and strawberries reported nearly 170 infected workers.
These are among the most vulnerable essential workers in the U.S. Essential because they’re providing our food. Vulnerable because so many are noncitizen immigrants who don’t have access the medical care and live, work, and travel in cramped, crowded situations. Advocates are sounding an alarm bell—it’s going to get worse as the harvest around the country ramps up. “We’re watching very, very nervously—the agricultural harvest season is only starting now,” Michael Dale, executive director of the Northwest Workers’ Justice Project in Portland, Oregon, told Bloomberg. “I don’t think we’re ready. I don’t think we’re prepared.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Moscow Doubles Last Month’s Coronavirus Death Toll Amid Suspicions Of Undercounting
As Brazil’s COVID-19 Cases Continue To Climb, Some Areas Prepare To Ease Restrictions
New Zealand Now Has Just 1 Active COVID-19 Case
Sweden’s economy actually grew in the first quarter after it opted against a full virus lockdown
The following are state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Illinois Is Reopening, But Chicago Isn’t Because Of Coronavirus Cases
New York City is on track to begin ‘phase one’ reopening on June 8, Gov. Cuomo says
Even with a $27 billion endowment, Stanford University expects layoffs will be ‘unavoidable’
California plans to have 10,000 contact tracers by July 1, governor says
Here is what can now reopen in L.A. County, and here is what is still closed
‘The Sheer Volume’ Is Hard To Capture: Unemployment In Nevada Soars To Historic High
NJ close to OKing $100 million for rental assistance in pandemic
1-in-7 New Yorkers May Have Already Gotten Covid-19
Coronavirus Statistics For 29 May 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 21,817 | 1,720,000 | 119,182 | 5,780,000 | 18.3% | 29.8% |
| Deaths | 1,175 | 101,617 | 4,733 | 360,089 | 24.8% | 28.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.86* | 45.90* | ||||
* as of 27 May 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
22 May 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improves Again But Continues Deep In Contraction
Final May 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Largely Unchanged But Still At Low Levels
May 2020 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Hit Lowest Level Since 1982
April 2020 Headline Personal Income Jumps, Expenditures Significantly Declines
Rail Week Ending 23 May 2020 – Looking For Signs Of Improvement
Infographic Of The Day: The Outperformance Of ESG Investing During The COVID-19 Selloff
China: Victory Over Coronavirus Will Be Heralded As Boost For Xi Jinping’s Brand Of Marxism
Spread Of COVID-19: A Continental Disparity
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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