Written by Steven Hansen
Today’s coronavirus deaths again were at the lowest level since 30 March 2020. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include Novavax will inject 131 volunteers in the first phase of the trial testing the safety of the vaccine; CDC study shows the overall death rate for COVID-19 is 0.26%; and some states have almost no deaths above the normal death rates.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Novavax trials coronavirus vaccine candidate in Australia – MarketWatch
A U.S. biotechnology company began injecting a coronavirus vaccine candidate into people in Australia on Tuesday with hopes of releasing a proven vaccine this year.
Novavax NVAX, 4.64% will inject 131 volunteers in the first phase of the trial testing the safety of the vaccine and looking for signs of its effectiveness, the company’s research chief Dr. Gregory Glenn said.
About a dozen experimental vaccines against the coronavirus are in early stages of testing or poised to start, mostly in China, the U.S. and Europe. It’s not clear that any will prove safe and effective. But many work in different ways, and are made with different technologies, increasing the odds that at least one approach might succeed.
“We are in parallel making doses, making vaccine in anticipation that we’ll be able to show it’s working and be able to start deploying it by the end of this year,” Glenn told a virtual news conference in Melbourne from Novavax’ headquarters in Maryland.
Animal testing suggested the vaccine is effective in low doses. Novavax could manufacture at least 100 million doses this year and 1.5 billion in 2021, he said.
Front-line coronavirus workers could be vaccinated as soon as this year, Novavax CEO says – CNBC
- Workers on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic will be first to receive a vaccine and that could come as soon as later this year, Stanley Erck, CEO of vaccine development company Novavax, said Tuesday.
- Novavax announced Monday that it has launched clinical trials of its coronavirus vaccine candidate and it expects preliminary results in July.
- Erck said his company plans to price its potential vaccine on a tiered approach based on affordability.
Antibody tests might be wrong half the time, CDC advises – CNN
Antibody tests used to determine if people have been infected in the past with Covid-19 might be wrong up to half the time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in new guidance posted on its website.
Antibody tests, often called serologic tests, look for evidence of an immune response to infection. “Antibodies in some persons can be detected within the first week of illness onset,” the CDC said.
They are not accurate enough to use to make important policy decisions, the CDC said.
“Serologic test results should not be used to make decisions about grouping persons residing in or being admitted to congregate settings, such as schools, dormitories, or correctional facilities,” the CDC said.
When You Can be Around Others After You Had or Likely Had COVID-19 – CDC
You can be with others after
- 3 days with no fever and
- Symptoms improved and
- 10 days since symptoms first appeared
Fewer ‘essential workers’ infected than those in lockdown, study shows – WND
[editor’s note: I can find NO evidence of this study in the English speaking press. However, the Twitter feed of Physician James Todaro can be viewed here. If this study can be validated – it raises questions on prevention of contracting COVID-19]
A study in Spain has found a lower rate of COVID-19 infection among essential workers who were not confined to their homes compared to those in isolation.
BREAKING COVID-19 antibody testing in Spain estimates ~5% infected
-Those in quarantine trended toward a higher infection rate than those working (6.3% vs 5.3%)
-Higher rate of infection in those OVER age 60 (6.1% vs 4.8%) Challenges the idea that lockdowns protect the elderly
Coronavirus may have been a ‘cell-culture experiment’ gone wrong – Sky News AU
The coronavirus that has become a world-wide pandemic may have been created in a “cell-culture experiment” in a laboratory, according to prominent scientists who have conducted ground-breaking research into the origins of the virus.
Flinders University Professor Nikolai Petrovsky has completed a scientific study, currently undergoing peer review, in conjunction with La Trobe University in Victoria, which found COVID-19 was uniquely adapted for transmission to humans, far more than any other animal, including bats.
Professor Petrovsky, from the College of Medicine and Public Health at Flinders University who has spent the past 20 years developing vaccines against pandemic influenza, Ebola and animal SARS, said this highly unusual finding left open the possibility that the virus leaked from a laboratory.
“The two possibilities which I think are both still open is that it was a chance transmission of a virus from an as yet unidentified animal to human. The other possibility is that it was an accidental release of the virus from a laboratory,” he said.
- At least two major airline manufacturers are working with academic groups to study how coronavirus moves in airplane cabins
- Air in planes is filtered out about 15 times an hour, but that may not protect passengers if they’re seated near a contagious person
- Some experts say that as long as passengers wear masks, as is now required by all major US airlines, the virus’s spread will be limited
- Boeing has reached out to University of Colorado, Boulder, about using UV light to kill coronavirus between flights
… Social distancing has proven an effective method of slowing the spread of coronavirus.
Infection tracking now clearly shows that the virus’s toll has remained lower in parts of the world that introduced the restrictions on contact earlier on in the pandemic.
But there simply isn’t space for social distancing on planes, where rows of seats are about 30 inches apart.
Putting six feet of space between passengers – at least front-to-back – would require leaving two rows empty between each set of travelers.
CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Death Rate – Media Chooses To Ignore COVID-19 Realities – ZeroHedge
The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public.
For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%.
Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% – almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
… More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.
The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.
To put this in perspective, one Twitter commentator juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration. He used Spain because we don’t have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the U.S. However, we know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country. This data is actually working with a top-line IFR of 1%, roughly four times what the CDC estimates for the U.S., so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the U.S. will be lower.
What Is the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in Each State? – New York Times
[editor’s note: this is a great post with a lot of real data. It shows that some states have almost no deaths above the normal death rates whilst others have been ravaged. Suggest readers click on the post hyperlink and read the full post.]
As the coronavirus pandemic cuts through the country, it is leaving behind large numbers of deaths that surpass those of recent history. A New York Times analysis of state data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows just how many lives are being lost in the pandemic in each place — as the virus kills some people directly, and other lives are lost to an overwhelmed health care system and fears about using it.
… Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. It is likely that most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself, given the dangerousness of the virus and the well-documented problems with testing. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals have become stressed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.
How ICE Is Spreading Coronavirus Across the Country – Vice
“Social distancing goes out the window” when detainees are moved repeatedly, via bus or plane, between facilities.
… Immigrant advocates have long complained of excessive transfers between ICE facilities, which they say makes it difficult for detainees to reach their families and attorneys. Now they’re decrying the practice for the additional danger it presents during the coronavirus pandemic.
… New Jersey is now the epicenter of the pandemic inside ICE detention, with 16 reported cases across four facilities, with the detention center in Elizabeth the hardest hit. The facility, which holds around 300 people and is operated by private prison giant CoreCivic, was the first to report a case when a member of the medical staff tested positive for COVID-19 last month.
Coronavirus Statistics For 26 May 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 19,064 | 1,660,000 | 88,239 | 5,460,000 | 21.6% | 30.4% |
| Deaths | 500 | 98,220 | 3,100 | 345,994 | 16.1% | 28.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 6.3% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.15* | 42.79* | ||||
* as of 24 May 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Chemical Activity Barometer Again Declines And Consistent With A Recession
May 2020 Texas Manufacturing Improves But Remains Deep In Contraction
May 2020 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Stabilizes
April 2020 Headline New Home Sales Exceed Expectations
April 2020 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Suggests Economic Growth Fell Substantially
4 Ways COVID-19 Has Exposed Gaps In The US Social Safety Net
If A Recovery Is Coming, It Will Be Without Spending From Some Usual Sources
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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