Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 1,700 K to 2,600 K (consensus 2,375 K), and the Department of Labor reported 2,438,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 3,543,000 (reported last week as 3,616,500) to 3,042,000
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
According to the BLS:
The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment. This report now includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.
The pandemic has so far caused a 38,918,000 job loss.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 1275 % higher than one year ago (versus the 1510 % higher last week) – and is higher than any historical value for this data set.
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Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,981,000, a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 7,000 from 3,169,000 to 3,176,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,616,500, a decrease of 564,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 7,000 from 4,173,500 to 4,180,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 15.7 percent for the week ending May 2, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.1 from 15.5 to 15.4 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 2 was 22,833,000, an increase of 456,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 270,000 from 22,647,000 to 22,377,000. The 4-week moving average was 19,760,000, an increase of 2,729,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 67,500 from 17,097,750 to 17,030,250.
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