Written by Steven Hansen
The weekly new cases and death count due to coronavirus declined again. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include a Nigerian crime ring is exploiting the COVID-19 crisis; the serious health consequences in keeping states shut down; and the partial reopening of Disney Springs entertainment and shopping complex at Walt Disney World Resort in Florida.
Reflecting on the past week, the big news has been the reinfection of sailors on the aircraft carrier Teddy Roosevelt. At this point, we are beginning to see evidence that it is possible to get coronavirus more than once – and as a minimum, immunity seems imperfect. Another pretty obvious point is that various “experts” are warning of a second wave similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918. From History.com:
As U.S. troops deployed en masse for the war effort in Europe, they carried the Spanish flu with them. Throughout April and May of 1918, the virus spread like wildfire through England, France, Spain and Italy. An estimated three-quarters of the French military was infected in the spring of 1918 and as many as half of British troops. Yet the first wave of the virus didn’t appear to be particularly deadly, with symptoms like high fever and malaise usually lasting only three days. According to limited public health data from the time, mortality rates were similar to seasonal flu.
… Reported cases of Spanish flu dropped off over the summer of 1918, and there was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its course. In retrospect, it was only the calm before the storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection.
… From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just the month of October. And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”-high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.
The “experts” have warned us that coronavirus is not the flu – yet this comparison has been made between COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu. There has been a resurgence of coronavirus in China and Germany, but to date – it has been rather mild. Thinking this through further:
- will there be a more deadly mutation of the coronavirus?
- what level of immunity does one achieve when recovered from the coronavirus? [we see it is possible for some to get the coronavirus more than once]
One fact though seems to be confirmed over-and-over, social distancing and personal hygiene (including masks) does work to a significant degree. Now that lockdown is being relaxed, it is prudent [bordering on essential] to continue social distancing and personal hygiene until more is KNOWN about the coronavirus – or until an immunization is available.
This pandemic has caused significant political polarization. Clearly, the reason the U.S. was so ill-prepared goes back to every politician over the last 50 years [funding, research, strategic stockpiles, trade …]. And when there is a lack of preparation and research, a lot of mistakes will be made because the foundation for making decisions is based on extrapolation of possibly related data and opinion. I will bet in hindsight that much of the decisions (both medical and economic) will be flawed to various degrees.
Econintersect will have no part of this political polarization – get past the political blame bullshit being spread by CNN, MSNBC, and Fox (amongst others but these are the worst offenders). It is time to work together for the common good.
Stay safe.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli publishes new paper on pathogen’s evolution – South China Morning Post
Shi Zhengli, the Chinese virologist whose work has been the subject of controversial theories about the origin of the novel coronavirus, has published new research into Sars-related pathogens and their animal hosts.
The head of the centre for emerging infectious diseases at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Shi said in a paper published on the preprint website Biorxiv.org on Thursday that the Chinese horseshoe bat was the natural host for Sars-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs).
The research, which has not been peer-reviewed, said that the bat carried many coronaviruses with a high degree of genetic diversity, particularly in the spike protein, which suggested they had evolved over time to aid their transmission.
“All tested bat SARSr-CoV spike proteins had a higher binding affinity to human ACE2 than to bat ACE2, although they showed a 10-fold lower binding affinity to human ACE2 compared with their SARS-CoV counterpart,” the paper said.
The ACE2, or angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, is a protein that provides the entry point for the coronavirus to hook onto and infect human cells, while the spike protein is the part of the virus that binds to human cells.
… US President Donald Trump last month said he had a high degree of confidence that the novel coronavirus was linked to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, even after US intelligence said that while it was “not man-made or genetically modified”, it was still examining information to determine if the outbreak began from infected animals or a lab accident.
Loss of smell, confusion, strokes: Does Covid-19 target the nervous system? – Knowable Magazine
Even if SARS-CoV-2 does not directly attack the nervous system, it could cause neurological problems indirectly. One way it could do this is through rampant inflammation known as a cytokine storm. In a case study published in Radiology, doctors in Detroit reported brain scan abnormalities indicative of a rare encephalopathy linked to cytokine storms in an airline worker in her mid-50s who tested positive for the virus. Another concern is reports of mysterious abnormalities in blood clotting in young and middle-aged Covid-19 patients that may increase the risk of stroke.
Some secondary effects could take time to develop. In an April 17 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine, Italian doctors described five Covid-19 patients who developed Guillain-Barre syndrome, a condition that starts with weakness and tingling in the extremities and can progress to more serious movement difficulties. Guillain-Barre syndrome occurs after infection, such as with Campylobacter bacteria, a frequent cause of food poisoning, when antibodies made by the immune system to fight the bacteria end up attacking the nervous system instead.
If the same thing happens with SARS-CoV-2, Pleasure says, doctors may see a wave of post-infection neurological conditions like Guillain-Barre in the months ahead. As with nearly everything related to Covid-19, the full impact won’t be known for some time.
8,000 Quarantined in China Amid New Coronavirus Infections: Live Coverage – New York Times
Officials concerned about a virus resurgence have quarantined 8,000 people and reintroduced lockdown measures in northeastern China, even as other parts of the country further relax restrictions.
Residents of Jilin, the second-largest city in Jilin Province, have been mostly barred from leaving the city, state news media reported, after a cluster of infections was reported there and in Shulan, another city under its administration. Shenyang, capital of the neighboring province of Liaoning, said on Saturday that anyone who had traveled there from the city of Jilin since April 22 would be quarantined in a hospital for three weeks.
Jilin has traced nearly 700 contacts of coronavirus patients for testing and quarantine, while officials in Liaoning Province have found more than 1,000 contacts and about 6,500 people at high risk for infection.
China reported five new confirmed infections on Saturday, three of them locally transmitted in Jilin Province and two from overseas. The country has reported more than 89,000 total cases and 4,634 deaths.
U.S. Secret Service: “Massive Fraud” Against State Unemployment Insurance Programs – Krebs on Security
A well-organized Nigerian crime ring is exploiting the COVID-19 crisis by committing large-scale fraud against multiple state unemployment insurance programs, with potential losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to a new alert issued by the U.S. Secret Service.
A memo seen by KrebsOnSecurity that the Secret Service circulated to field offices around the United States on Thursday says the ring has been filing unemployment claims in different states using Social Security numbers and other personally identifiable information (PII) belonging to identity theft victims, and that “a substantial amount of the fraudulent benefits submitted have used PII from first responders, government personnel and school employees.”
“It is assumed the fraud ring behind this possesses a substantial PII database to submit the volume of applications observed thus far,” the Secret Service warned. “The primary state targeted so far is Washington, although there is also evidence of attacks in North Carolina, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Florida.”
The Secret Service said the fraud network is believed to consist of hundred of “mules,” a term used to describe willing or unwitting individuals who are recruited to help launder the proceeds of fraudulent financial transactions.
13 USS Roosevelt Sailors Test Positive For COVID-19, Again – NPR
The U.S. Navy says 13 sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt who had apparently recovered from the coronavirus and had received negative test results have now tested positive for a second time.
In a statement released earlier on Saturday when five sailors were found to have retested positive, the Navy said the sailors had “met rigorous recovery criteria, exceeding CDC guidelines,” including testing negative for the virus at least twice, but have now retested positive. The statement said the sailors had been monitoring their health and adhered to social-distancing protocols while on board the Roosevelt, which has been docked in Guam following an outbreak infecting hundreds of crew members.
“These five Sailors developed influenza-like illness symptoms and did the right thing reporting to medical for evaluation,” the statement said.
The Navy has since confirmed to NPR that an additional eight sailors have retested positive for coronavirus, bringing the total to 13.
Disney says it will reopen shopping area at Florida resort on Wednesday – Reuters
Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) will partially reopen its Disney Springs entertainment and shopping complex at Walt Disney World Resort in Florida on May 20, it said late on Saturday.
Disney and unions representing workers at Florida’s Walt Disney World reached an agreement on safeguards to protect employees from the coronavirus, a union statement said on Thursday, removing one of the company’s hurdles to reopening its popular theme parks.
… “While our theme parks and resort hotels remain temporarily closed, the phased reopening of Disney Springs is a welcome milestone as we navigate through this unprecedented time together as responsibly as we can,” Disney Springs Vice President Matt Simon said bit.ly/3cQFMTP in a statement.
Federal government to begin gathering data on covid-19 deaths in nursing homes – The Washington Post
Nursing homes have been directed to report the number of coronavirus infections and deaths to the federal government by midnight Sunday so that health officials can assess the damage the pandemic has inflicted on sick and elderly residents and their caregivers in more than 15,000 homes nationwide.
Collecting the data marks the U.S. government’s first attempt to quantify the virus’ impact since an initial outbreak in a Seattle home three months ago killed more than 40 people, and then spread to more than 1 in 4 homes nationwide.
Federal officials said they will collect the data weekly and publish it online, along with the names of nursing homes, by the end of May.
Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate – Health Affairs
State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April of 2020 to contain the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These included large event bans, school closures, closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas, and shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. An event-study design allowed each policy’s impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after 1-5 days, 6.8 after 6-10 days, 8.2 after 11-15 days, and 9.1 after 16-20 days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs (10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any of the four measures (35 million). Our paper illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing relevant information to strategies for restarting economic activity.
[Editor’s Note: This Fast Track Ahead Of Print article is the accepted version of the peer-reviewed manuscript. The final edited version will appear in an upcoming issue of Health Affairs.]
Reopening state economies is an issue of “health versus health,” HHS secretary says – CNN
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said reopening the economy is an issue of “health versus health” and that there are “serious health consequences” to keeping states shut down.
“Reopen we must, because it’s not health versus the economy. It’s actually health versus health. There are serious health consequences to keeping us shut down, whether it’s the suicidality rates or cardiac procedures not being received, pediatric vaccinations declining. All of these are critical health needs that are part of reopening the economy,” he told CNN on Sunday.
As states across the country start to loosen restrictions, he said these determinations need to be made on a local level.
“It’s very hard to judge in any community whether a bar being open, a restaurant, a school is the right thing,” he told CNN on Sunday. “That’s why the local leaders lead this, the state supervises, and the federal government provides expertise and support from our level.”
“There should not be one size fits all approaches to reopening,” Azar added.
So far there has not been a spike in cases in states that have already started to reopen, he added.
Coronavirus Statistics For 17 May 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 24,487 | 1,470,000 | 93,543 | 4,600,000 | 26.2% | 32.0% |
| Deaths | 1,186 | 88,754 | 4,190 | 311,588 | 28.3 % | 28.5% |
| Mortality Rate | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.14 | 32,39 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Reopening The U.S. Economy An Industry At A Time
Challenges In Nowcasting GDP Growth
Putting The Current Oil Price Collapse Into Historical Perspective
Infographic Of The Day: How Many People Die Each Day?
Americans May Be Willing To Pay $5 Trillion To Stop The Spread Of The Coronavirus And Save Lives
COVID-19 Travel: Many Europeans Holiday At Home
The Tragedy Of Missed COVID-19 Opportunities
Coronavirus Disease News 17May 2020
Coronavirus Economic News 17May 2020
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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