Written by Steven Hansen
The daily death count due to coronavirus today rose again today. New coronavirus cases also rose. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include worsening forecasts for 2Q2020 GDP; more news on potential immunizations; and many additional subjects.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
- President Donald Trump said Friday he wants a coronavirus vaccine developed and produced by the end of the year
- ‘We would love to see if we can do it prior to the end of the year,’ he said
- Moncef Slaoui, the former pharmaceutical chief picked to run the search for a coronavirus vaccine, acknowledged it will be difficult to find one by year’s end
- Slaoui said he pictures a longer process
- ‘Frankly, 12-18 months is already a very aggressive timeline,’ Slaoui
- Slaoui was tapped by Trump to lead ‘Operation Warp Speed’
Trump says he would mobilize military to distribute coronavirus vaccine when it’s ready – CBS News
President Trump says he would “rapidly” mobilize the U.S. military to distribute a coronavirus vaccine once it’s ready, focusing first on nursing homes and the elderly most vulnerable to deadly complications from the virus. Mr. Trump made the comments during an interview with Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo.
“We’re mobilizing our military and other forces but we’re mobilizing our military on the basis that we do have a vaccine. You know, it’s a massive job to give this vaccine. Our military is now being mobilized so at the end of the year we’re going to be able to give it to a lot of people very, very rapidly,” the president said.
“We will have a tremendous force because assuming we get it, then you have to distribute it,” he added. “And unless you’re mobilized and ready, you’re not going to be able to do it for a long time. So we’re starting now.”
Germany, Europe’s Largest Economy, Enters Recession Due To Coronavirus – NPR
The coronavirus pandemic has plunged Europe’s largest economy into recession. Official figures show Germany’s economy shrank by 2.2% in the first three months of this year. It’s the biggest quarterly fall since 2009 when the global financial crisis ravaged the country’s economy.
Figures for the last three months of 2019 were also revised to show a contraction, meaning economic growth has been negative for two successive quarters, the technical definition of a recession. Economists expect a deeper slump in the second quarter as the full effects of the lockdown become apparent.
Like other European countries hit hard by the pandemic, Germany closed factories, shops and restaurants, forcing many workers to stay at home from mid-March to slow the spread of the outbreak. Half of all German companies have applied for Kurzarbeit, a state program that allows firms to cut working hours and receive government subsidies to help pay at least 60% of workers’ salaries. Germany’s heavy reliance on exports has also made it vulnerable as international trade and travel have been curtailed.
Yemen bracing for coronavirus outbreak – BBC News and YouTube
In Yemen, scores of Covid-19 cases have been recorded across the country. But the UN warns that the virus is spreading largely undetected in a country in the grip of a civil war. The BBC gained access to hospitals in the rebel Houthi-controlled capital, Sanaa, where medics are bracing for an outbreak with very few resources.
Seizing opportunity, DeVos directs coronavirus funds to private schools – MSNBC
[editor’s note: MSNBC has a significant anti-Trump administration bias. Readers need to pick the wheat from the chaff]
Education Secretary Betsy DeVos hasn’t made much of an effort to hide her disregard for American public education. On the contrary, DeVos has long been an enthusiastic proponent of school vouchers, which would effectively privatize the nation’s K-12 system through coupons families would take to religious and other private institutions.
The problem, at least from the Michigan Republican’s perspective, is that Congress has limited DeVos’ ability to funnel public tax dollars into private education. The New York Times reports, however, that the conservative Education secretary is exploiting the $2 trillion coronavirus aid package to “throw a lifeline” to the private schools she’s long championed, despite the fact that the law intended to direct those federal funds primarily for public schools and colleges.
FDA approves umbilical stem cell research for COVID-19 – Stanford Health
RESTEM, a leading cell-based therapeutics company, announced today it has received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a 60-patient Phase I/IIa study using umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells to treat patients with severe cases of COVID-19. The study will be the first of its kind in the U.S.
The study is expected to start enrolling patients from Baptist Health South Florida and Sanford Health this week.
“We are excited to launch this study and demonstrate the potential of our patented umbilical cord lining stem cell (ULSC) technology,” said Dr. Rafael Gonzalez, senior vice president of research and development for RESTEM. “Based on the properties of our cells and targeted treatments, our breakthrough technology has shown promise to help those suffering from COVID-19 complications.”
This treatment has already shown promising results in patients in the U.S. hospitalized with COVID-19 who also had developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). These patients were previously treated at Miami Cancer Institute, part of Baptist Health South Florida, under the care of principal investigator Guenther Koehne, M.D., Ph.D., deputy director of the Miami Cancer Institute.
Moscow rolls out mass coronavirus antibody testing programme – Reuters
[editor’s note: random testing is the ONLY way to discover wtf is going on with the coronavirus. All the facts we see are either anecdotal, an extrapolation of a partially related data point, unreviewed studies (most of which are not broad enough to be scientifically valid), or simply opinion]
Moscow began testing thousands of randomly-chosen residents for coronavirus antibodies on Friday under a mass screening programme authorities hope will help them determine when it is safe to lift the city’s lockdown restrictions.
The Russian capital of 12.7 million is in its seventh week of a shutdown and has shouldered the brunt of Russia’s outbreak, which has seen more than a quarter of a million people infected nationwide according to official figures.
Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow’s mayor, has said the real scale of the outbreak is much bigger than official data shows because many people will not have manifested symptoms and therefore not realised they are carriers.
Sobyanin said mass testing would help identify such people, paint a reliable picture of the outbreak’s spread, and allow officials to relax the lockdown without risking lives when the time was right.
South Korea’s Coronavirus Contact-Tracing Can Be Revealing – coronavirustoday.com
South Korean health authorities said on May 13, 2020, they would revise their Contact-Tracing practice of publicizing the travel routes of coronavirus patients. While clubs and bars were required to log the names and contact phone numbers for all visitors as a condition of reopening, much of the information turned out to be incomplete or false, reported Reuters.
That has left officials combing through cellphone location data to Digitally Contact Trace some customers.
Local officials say they understand the fear of social stigmatization and have promised to reduce the amount of information released about confirmed COVID-19 patients. South Korea has typically released a patient’s age, gender, and places visited immediately before testing positive, as well as in some cases, patients’ last names and general occupations.
Quarter of Covid-19 deaths in English hospitals were of diabetics – The Guardian
One in four people who have died in hospital with Covid-19 also had diabetes, the NHS’s first breakdown of underlying health conditions among the fatalities shows.
Of the 22,332 people who died in hospital in England between 31 March and 12 May, 5,873 (26%) suffered from either type 1 or type 2 diabetes, NHS England figures reveal.
That was the most common illness found in an analysis of what existing conditions patients had. The other commonest comorbidities were dementia (18%), serious breathing problems (15%) and chronic kidney disease (14%). One in ten (10%) suffered from ischaemic heart disease.
The finding about diabetes confirms anecdotal reports from intensive care doctors that many of the coronavirus patients they have been treating during the pandemic had underlying diabetes, as well as research by the UK’s Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre.
Coronavirus Sanofi: French drug giant rows back after vaccine storm – BBC
Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson sparked a row by saying the US government had “the right to the largest pre-order because it’s invested in taking the risk”.
French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe responded by saying access for all was “non-negotiable”.
Sanofi’s chairman has now vowed equal access for everyone.
“I am going to be extremely clear: there will be no particular advance for any country,” Serge Weinberg told France 2 TV.
- Dean & Deluca
- Apex Parks
- FoodFirst, Bravo and Brio Restaurant Parent
- True Religion Apparel
- CMX Cinemas
- J. Crew
- Gold’s Gym
- Neiman Marcus
- Stage Stores, (Bealls, Goody’s, Palais Royal, Peebles, Gordman’s, and Stage Parent)
MLB commissioner ‘hopeful’ about summer games as players demand look into league finances – Fox
Lawyers for the baseball players’ union asked Major League Baseball to submit a slew of financial documents that detail the industry’s finances, a person familiar with the request told The Associated Press.
The person spoke on condition of anonymity Thursday because neither side announced the step.
Baseball owners on Monday approved a proposal that could lead to the coronavirus-delayed season starting around the Fourth of July with a regular-season schedule of 82 games per team, including 13 against each division rival. Owners also gave the go-ahead to propose basing players’ salaries on a 50-50 revenue split, which the union says is a salary cap and a framework players will never agree to.
“It’s hopeful that we will have some Major League Baseball this summer. We are making plans about playing in empty stadiums,” Commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday on CNN, adding he is confident of reaching a deal with players.
GDP estimate for 2Q2020 = -42.8 percent – Atlanta Federal Reserve
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -42.8 percent on May 15, down from -34.9 percent on May 8. After this week’s data releases from the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -33.9 percent and -62.8 percent, respectively, to -43.6 percent and -69.4 percent, respectively.
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -31.1% for 2020:Q2. – New York Federal Reserve
- News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2020:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point.
- Negative surprises from retail sales and industrial production data mostly offset positive surprises from a regional survey and international trade data.
Matt Ridley – We Are Past the Worst – Advisor Perspectives
[editor’s note: this article is based on a presentation from John Mauldin’s 2020 Virtual Strategic Investment Conference]
There is every reason to think we will get through the coronavirus pandemic, he said, and that we will defeat future pandemics and climate change.
But it depends on allowing and encouraging innovation.
For example, he said patents are a problem for innovators. When they expire, there is a burst of innovation, as has happened in 3D printing.
Ridley offered no specifics on how science or society will overcome the coronavirus pandemic. His optimism was based on his examples of progress through innovation.
Whistleblower testifies ‘we’re in deep s–t’ because Trump administration ignored early coronavirus warnings – Daily News
The federal government’s ousted vaccine czar told lawmakers on Thursday that the country is “in deep s–t” and severely unprepared for more coronavirus fallout because top Trump administration officials ignored his early warnings and then retaliated against him for sounding the alarm.
Dr. Richard Bright, who filed a whistleblower complaint after being abruptly removed last month from his coronavirus vaccine development post, said the severity of the problem first dawned on him in late January, when he received an email from a medical supply company executive warning him that mask stockpiles were already getting decimated.
… “And I pushed that forward to the highest levels I could in HHS [Health and Human Services Department] and got no response. From that moment, I knew that we were going to have a crisis for our health care workers because we were not taking action. We were already behind the ball.”
New York Fed Releases Notice of Interest for the Municipal Liquidity Facility – New York Fed
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released a Notice of Interest (NOI) for Eligible Issuers to express interest in selling notes to the special purpose vehicle (SPV) Municipal Liquidity Facility LLC. Filling out the notice of interest is the initial step for an Eligible Issuer to provide eligibility information to the SPV for review.
An Eligible Issuer should submit an NOI only when it has determined its financial needs and schedule. Each Eligible Issuer has an allocated amount of note borrowing capacity as detailed in Appendix A of the FAQs posted on the Reserve Bank’s website (FAQs).
The municipal securities market is an important part of the financial system, which helps provide states, cities, and counties (and their political subdivisions and other governmental entities) with the funding needed to provide essential public services to their citizens. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a swift and dramatic increase in interest rates on municipal securities, and while some issuers subsequently have been able to issue debt or secure loans, many issuers have not been able to meet their financing needs through the capital markets. By ensuring the smooth functioning of the municipal securities market, particularly in times of strain, the Federal Reserve is providing credit that will support families, businesses, and jobs in communities, large and small, across the nation.
The New York Fed also announced that the SPV, Municipal Liquidity Facility LLC, designated BLX Group LLC (BLX) as its administrative agent for the execution phase of the MLF. In serving as the administrative agent, BLX will receive notices of interest and applications from Eligible Issuers interested in selling notes to the SPV. BLX will review those notices and applications based on criteria established by the New York Fed and will be available to respond to questions from Eligible Issuers. Decisions to purchase eligible notes will be in the sole discretion of the SPV.
Mayor Of Madison Calls Decision To Overturn Wisconsin Stay-At-Home Order ‘Outrageous’ – NPR
The mayor of Madison, Wisc., is slamming the decision by the state’s supreme court this week to overturn the governor’s stay-at-home order, saying businesses are not in a position to reopen and warning that the coronavirus will only spread as a result.
“There is absolutely a danger here and that’s why it’s so irresponsible of the court to have struck down the governor’s ‘safer at home’ order without a plan in place for how we transition out of it safely,” said Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway in an interview on Friday. “This is the supreme court that thought it was safe for us to hold an election in person during a pandemic, and what we saw from that is that dozens and dozens of people got sick. I expect the same to happen with this decision.”
The mayor’s comments followed Wednesday’s 4-3 vote by Wisconsin’s supreme court to strike down efforts by the state’s Democratic governor, Tony Evers, to extend a statewide stay-at-home order designed to slow the virus. While some cheered the court’s action — even taking to bars to celebrate — others have decried the court’s action as a threat to public health, reflecting the competing forces that elected officials are being forced to confront as they weigh next steps in a pandemic that has infected more than 1.4 million nationwide and killed 86,000.
Coronavirus Statistics For 15 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 27,143 | 1,420,000 | 96,022 | 4,410,000 | 28.3% | 32.2% |
| Deaths | 1,773 | 85,906 | 5,232 | 302,115 | 33.9% | 28.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.98 | 30.14 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Markets Will Look Past Poor April Retail Sales Numbers, Strategist Says
08 May 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improves Again But Remains Deep In Contraction
Preliminary May 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves Even With Coronavirus
March 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Rate Declined And Remains In Contraction
March 2020 Business Inventories Level Remain Elevated But Declined
April 2020 Headline Industrial Production Monthly Decline Worst In Its 101 Year History
May 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Index Improves To Second Lowest Level In History
Retail Sales Crash Due To The Coronvirus in April 2020
Infographic Of The Day: How Did Investors React To The COVID-19 Outbreak?
A Risk-Centric Perspective On The Central Banks Covid-19 Policy Response
COVID-19: The South Rises Again
Bankruptcy Courts Ill-Prepared For Tsunami Of People Going Broke From Coronavirus Shutdown
The Stock Market Is Not The Economy
COVID-19 Cases Per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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