Written by Steven Hansen
The daily death count due to coronavirus today rose again today. New coronavirus cases declined. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include discussion of herd immunity; coronavirus super-spreading events; Abbott Coronavirus test is inaccurate; and how the coronavirus is killing the middle class.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
New research suggests that cats may be ‘silent intermediate’ hosts of COVID-19. – Business Insider
- New research published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday suggests that cats may be “silent intermediate hosts” of COVID-19, because they may not show symptoms that would be recognized by their owners.
- According to the study, three cats were inoculated with COVID-19 and then paired in a household with three cats that did not have COVID-19.
- The research found that within three days, the virus was detected in all cats that were inoculated, and within eight days, all formerly healthy cats also tested positive for the virus.
- Notably, none of the six cats in the study showed any symptoms, including changes in body temperature, weight loss, or eye disease.
- The study supports research conducted last month, which suggested that cats may be more susceptible to infection from the new coronavirus and may be able to spread it to other cats.
Everything you need to know about a second round of coronavirus stimulus checks – CNBC
With almost 37 million Americans out of work due to coronavirus shutdowns, Democratic lawmakers are proposing a second round of stimulus checks to provide some financial relief, potentially worth more than the first round.
Most eligible Americans have by now received their check, called economic impact payments, though some are still being mailed to those who did not provide direct deposit information to the IRS.
The checks have provided something of a cushion to the tens of millions of people who are out of work or have had their hours reduced, though many critics and lawmakers said they did not go far enough. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a second round of direct payments is “necessary” for the survival of many Americans, and that they would help stimulate the economy.
But those checks are not likely to hit bank accounts soon, if at all.
The Abbott coronavirus test hailed by President Donald Trump and used by the White House failed to detect infected samples in a large number of cases that were caught by a rival firm, a preliminary study says.
The speedy Abbott test, which says it can determine in as little as five minutes whether a person has the virus, missed a third of positive samples found by the diagnostic company Cepheid when using nasopharyngeal swabs and more than 48 percent when using dry nasal swabs, said the study done by a group from New York University. The former penetrates deeply into the nasal passages, while the latter is less invasive.
Coronavirus: ‘100% accurate’ antibody test approved for use in UK for first time – Independent
A test to check whether a person has previously had coronavirus has been praised by Public Health England after it was found to carry a 100 per cent rate of success when it came to ruling out false positives – paving the way for people to potentially see if they have built up an immunity to Covid-19.
The tests, developed by Swiss firm Roche, have already been given the green light in the US. UK officials are also reportedly in talks to roll out millions in the UK to check how aggressively the virus has spread through the country, according to The Times.
It comes after another batch of tests ordered by the government in mid-March were deemed too unreliable to be used.
Italian Prime Minister threatens to leave the EU if tourism green corridors go ahead – CNN
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has criticized the European Union’s proposed tourism plan that could allow special so-called green corridors between countries within the bloc, and threatened this could cause Italy to leave the EU.
The suggested tourism corridors would allow certain countries with low or sharply declining Covid-19 infection rates to open up to a select few destinations until borders are fully reopened.
“We don’t accept bilateral agreements inside the European Union that will create privileged tourists paths,” Conte said during a press conference on Wednesday.
“[Tourism] cannot be conditioned by bilateral agreements or we will be out of the European Union, we will never permit it”, he added, underlining that tourism represents up to 13% of Italian GDP.
Coronavirus super-spreader events all have notable similarities – and they reveal the types of gatherings we should avoid for years – Business Insider
- An average person with coronavirus infects between 2 and 2.5 other people, but sometimes, an infected individual passes the virus to far more people during a “super-spreader event.”
- There have been reports of super-spreaders in South Korea and the US; these events have sparked local outbreaks.
- Most super-spreader events are similar: The infected person attends an indoor gathering with lots of people, like a religious service, choir practice, or birthday party.
- The commonalities between these events inform health officials about the types of gatherings with the highest chances of facilitating the virus’ spread.
Spanish antibody study suggests 5% of population affected by coronavirus – Reuters
Preliminary results from a nationwide coronavirus antibody study showed on Wednesday that about 5% of the overall Spanish population had contracted the novel virus – about 10 times more than the tally of diagnosed cases suggests.
The results point to 2.3 million of Spain’s 45 million population being affected by the virus, if without symptoms in many cases, considerably more than the official count of under 230,000 cases.
Few people have been infected so far, studies say, suggesting that ‘herd immunity’ is still out of reach. – New York Times
Public health officials warn that relaxing social distancing rules risks causing new waves of the pandemic, in part because the vast majority of people may still be susceptible to infection.
Scientists say it is likely, though not certain, that people who have had the virus gain some immunity to it. The new findings support experts’ warnings that populations are still far from achieving “herd immunity,” when enough people are resistant to slow its spread.
India’s ‘Maximum City’ Engulfed by Coronavirus – DNYUZ
It is India’s most densely populated city, a scraggly peninsula framed by the Arabian Sea and other waterways, a metropolis of towering apartment blocks and endless slums, a city of oversize dreams and desperate poverty, all sandwiched together. This is where Asia’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani, built a 27-story single-family home. This is where “Slumdog Millionaire” was filmed and set. Indians call it Maximum City.
As the coronavirus gnaws its way across India, Mumbai has suffered the worst. This city of 20 million is now responsible for 20 percent of India’s coronavirus infections and nearly 25 percent of the deaths.
Hospitals are overflowing with the sick. Police officers are exhausted enforcing a stay-at-home curfew. Doctors say the biggest enemy is Mumbai’s density.
Particularly in the city’s vast slum districts, social distancing is impossible. People live eight to a room across miles and miles of informal settlements made of concrete blocks and topped with sheets rusted iron. As the temperatures climb toward 100 degrees Fahrenheit, many can’t stand to be cooped up anymore and spill into the streets.
French Drugmaker Sparks Outrage In France By Asserting U.S. Would Receive Covid-19 Vaccine First – Forbes
The CEO of French drug giant Sanofi suggested Wednesday that the company plans to give the United States early access to any Covid-19 vaccine it develops, which angered government officials in France and led to President Emmanuel Macron indicating he plans to meet with company officials, who have already begun to walk back the incendiary comments.
Slump in household spending spurs record fall in consumer goods sector – IHS Markit
Ongoing global lockdowns and adherence to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related social-distancing measures resulted in significant decreases in global consumer spending during April, with consumer goods producers recording the most severe contraction in output since comparable data were first available in October 2009. Despite food stores remaining open and seeing a pick-up in the volume of purchases, food & beverage producers were hit by the continued closure of other businesses such as restaurants. Consumer-facing sectors have been particularly hard-hit by the pandemic, with only healthcare services registering an increase in activity of the industries monitored by the IHS Markit Global Sector PMI in April.
Alongside food & beverage producers, household goods and automotive manufacturers were knocked yet again as consumers reined in their spending amid times of increasing job insecurity and uncertainty, with big ticket items in particular being classed as low priority by buyers.
How the Coronavirus is Killing the Middle Class – The New Yorker
In the last four weeks, as large sections of the global economy have shut down, more than thirty-three million Americans have filed for unemployment. People with jobs that aren’t deemed essential, or that render telework impossible, are suddenly without work, and, in many cases, savings. According to the C.E.O. of Feeding America, the pandemic is likely to leave an additional seventeen million Americans needing food assistance in the next six months. Recently, in Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and Irving, Texas, people waited outside food pantries in lines that stretched miles. Tens of thousands of people who can’t pay their bills have gone on rent strikes.
The disaster has become so dire so quickly owing, in part, to the legacy of the 2008 financial crisis. Minimum wage, in real terms, is more than thirty percent lower than it was fifty years ago. (Since the nineteen-eighties, most of the benefits of America’s growing economy have gone to the wealthy.) Meanwhile, housing costs have more than doubled since 2000. “When people say they live paycheck to paycheck, it’s not that they’re managing their money poorly,” Sharon Parrott, a senior vice-president at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, told me. “Instead, their housing costs are taking up a disproportionate share of their incomes.” The result is a slim margin of error: forty percent of Americans don’t have four hundred dollars cash to spare in an emergency and would need to rely on credit cards or friends and family to come up with the money. “We know for low-wage workers, three unpaid days away from a job threatens their ability to buy food for a month,” Vicki Shabo, a policy expert at New America, a nonprofit think tank, said.
“This is worse and weirder than anything I’ve ever seen,” Heidi Shierholz, a director of policy at the Economic Policy Institute, said. Shierholz served as the chief economist at the Department of Labor from 2014 to 2017 and dealt firsthand with the slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. “We know how to wrap our brains around the bursting of an asset bubble of seven trillion dollars in the housing market, or the end of the dot-com boom,” she said. “But we don’t have practice in dealing with the fallout from this pandemic.” We are beginning to see who will be most affected by the economic downturn. Women are losing jobs at a higher rate because there are more of them in the service sectors most affected by the virus. The crisis has also been increasing racial economic disparities: black and Latino workers are more likely to work service-industry jobs-in restaurants, bars, hotels-and that sector was the first to shut down, and the least likely to fully reopen in the near term. “We always see this during recessions, but this one is likely to be worse,” Shierholz told me.
Remdesivir Works Against Many Viruses. Why Aren’t There More Drugs Like It? – Smithsonian Magazine
Viruses are more slippery targets than bacteria. They’re often a hundred times smaller and consist only of bare-bones cellular machinery. Their tiny footprint creates a conundrum for researchers: There are simply fewer targets at which to aim antivirals, especially for drugs that would shoot for the rare viral components that remain common across diverse types of viruses. Hepatitis C, for example, is caused by HCV viruses from Flaviviridae, a family that also includes the virus behind yellow fever. Some Hepatitis C treatments are so targeted that they combat only some of the six main types of HCV, and certainly not yellow fever. Scientists call this virus-pinpointing model the “one drug, one bug” approach.
An antiviral’s mechanism can’t be too generic, either. “The broader you go, the more likely you are to pick off something in the host cell,” says Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. For instance, a broad-spectrum antiviral called ribavirin, which fights both Hepatitis C and respiratory syncytial virus, can cause birth defects and destroy blood cells. To deal directly with the microorganisms at the root of the disease, “you want it to be very exquisitely targeted to the virus and not affect the host,” Adalja says. (Broad-spectrum treatments called host-acting or host-directed antivirals are an exception to this rule, aiming for the host instead of the virus, but can come with the possibility of serious side effects.)
On top of the biological challenge of finding new broad-spectrum antiviral drugs lies an economic one. Pharmaceutical companies have little financial incentive to develop broad-spectrum drugs against emerging diseases since they have no guarantee they’ll recoup the costs of research. “Big pharma is rarely interested in developing a drug against an unknown that might emerge in the future, and so consequently, the entire global response to new emerging outbreaks of viral disease is reactive rather than proactive,” says microbiologist Ralph Baric, who has been investigating coronaviruses and warning of their emerging-disease potential for decades. While federal funds have bankrolled research in this area, Congress has historically been more apt to spend money on already-here crises like Ebola than on preparedness measures.
As if Covid-19 was not enough, other virus outbreaks are erupting around the world – Quartz
In Indonesia, dengue-which is spread through mosquitoes-has infected some 40,000 people so far this year, a nearly 16% rise from last year. Compounding the problem, most of Indonesia’s hospitals are now tasked with prioritizing patients with Covid-19, leaving those suffering from the painful and sometimes fatal symptoms of dengue without treatment.
In Latin America it’s even worse. The region saw the highest number of dengue cases in recorded history in 2019. And 2020 is on track to be bad too. Argentina right now has more reported cases of dengue than coronavirus. And experts worry that Brazil is about to become the next epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic just as its own dengue outbreak peaks.
… Health workers are also racing to vaccinate against yellow fever in Ethiopia, where an outbreak killed four people at the end of April. Both Mexico and Burundi are facing large outbreaks of measles and Saudi Arabia continues to battle an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, commonly known as MERS.
Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s – Foreign Affairs
[editor’s note: there is little scientific evidence that immunity and therefore herd immunity is achievable with COVID-19.]
Rather than declare a lockdown or a state of emergency, Sweden asked its citizens to practice social distancing on a mostly voluntary basis. Swedish authorities imposed some restrictions designed to flatten the curve: no public gatherings of more than 50 people, no bar service, distance learning in high schools and universities, and so on. But they eschewed harsh controls, fines, and policing. Swedes have changed their behavior, but not as profoundly as the citizens of other Western democracies. Many restaurants remain open, although they are lightly trafficked; young children are still in school. And in contrast to neighboring Norway (and some Asian countries), Sweden has not introduced location-tracing technologies or apps, thus avoiding threats to privacy and personal autonomy.
Swedish authorities have not officially declared a goal of reaching herd immunity, which most scientists believe is achieved when more than 60 percent of the population has had the virus. But augmenting immunity is no doubt part of the government’s broader strategy-or at least a likely consequence of keeping schools, restaurants, and most businesses open. Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, has projected that the city of Stockholm could reach herd immunity as early as this month. Based on updated behavioral assumptions (social-distancing norms are changing how Swedes behave), the Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton has calculated that 40 percent immunity in the capital could be enough to stop the virus’s spread there and that this could happen by mid-June.
Top US Shippers: Food importers face consumption upheaval – JOC
While other industries have seen massive increases or decreases in demand, food importers have been affected by an upheaval in consumption patterns and the channels through which end-consumers purchase food. A nosedive in patronage at restaurants, for instance, has forced suppliers to the restaurant and commercial food industries to reshape their supply chains on the fly to cater to more end-consumer demand and grocery channels.
In some cases, that’s created a need to shrink large shipments of foodstuffs into smaller, single-family use packages as consumption shifts to more e-commerce deliveries, prepared meal kits, and curbside pickups.
How this change in end consumption rebounds on imports is difficult to forecast at the moment. A number of publicly traded food brands canceled their full-year 2020 guidance in first-quarter earnings calls due to the extreme uncertainty surrounding when consumer spending patterns return to something approaching normal.
As one third-party logistics provider (3PL) put it to JOC.com, “People vastly underestimate the extent to which food supply chains are global. That doesn’t change overnight.”
66% remain unprepared for emergencies, despite COVID-19 disaster – couponchief
- 72% of people were unprepared for emergencies before COVID-19.
- 66% of people are still unprepared for emergencies, in spite of the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Panic buying has certainly crippled the supply of essential goods across the country, but what are we doing to change this behavior now that we know it’s happening, and are we preventing it from happening again?
Tracking Weekly Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Outbreak – Philadelphia Fed
Why Cash Transfers Are Good Policy in the COVID-19 Pandemic – Atlanta Federal Reserve
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an exceptionally large and negative impact on economic activity around the world. We show that cash transfers can be a useful policy tool during the pandemic. Cash transfers mitigate consumption inequality induced by the pandemic and provide incentives to individuals who are most negatively affected by lockdown policies to adhere to them.
Coronavirus Statistics For 14 May 2020
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 20,782 | 1,390,000 | 85,108 | 4,310,000 | 24.4% | 32.3% |
| Deaths | 1,746 | 84,133 | 4,984 | 296,680 | 35.0% | 28.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.17 | 28.24 | ||||
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Total 2.98 Million, Topping Estimates
April 2020 Import Year-over-Year Inflation Declined To -6.8%
09 May 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 2,981,000 This Week
Rail Week Ending 09 May 2020 – Steep Contraction Continues
Why This Wave Is Usually A Market Downturn’s Most Wicked
Broken Indicators: The Forward PE And The PEG
Did Neil Ferguson Really Do Wrong In Breaking The Coronavirus Lockdown?
The States Most And Least Likely To Wear Face Masks
The Tragedy Of Missed COVID-19 Opportunities
COVID-19 Shutdowns Are Clearing The Air, But Pollution Will Return As Economies Reopen
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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